Politics DA – Week 1 Supplementmasondebate.pbworks.com/w/file/fetch/67321664/GMU... · Web view2021. 4. 27. · Politics DA – Week 1 Supplement . Politics DA – Week 1 Supplement1

George Mason 2012-13[File Name] [Name]

Politics DA – Week 1 Supplement Politics DA – Week 1 Supplement...................................................................................................................1*** Uniqueness................................................................................................................................................3UQ – Will Pass.................................................................................................................................................4UQ – Top of Docket.........................................................................................................................................9UQ – AT: Unpop W/ GOP.............................................................................................................................10UQ – PC High................................................................................................................................................11*** Link Debate.............................................................................................................................................13Link – Cuba – General...................................................................................................................................14Link – Cuba – People to People.....................................................................................................................15Link – Cuba – Immigration............................................................................................................................16Link – Cuba – Terrorism List – Ros-Lehtinen...............................................................................................17Link – Cuban Embargo..................................................................................................................................18*** Internal Link............................................................................................................................................20Rubio K2 CIR.................................................................................................................................................21Ros-Lehtinen K2 CIR.....................................................................................................................................23***Impact.......................................................................................................................................................25Economy – Deficit IL.....................................................................................................................................26Economy – AT: Alternative Causes...............................................................................................................27*** AFF Answers...........................................................................................................................................29Non-Unique....................................................................................................................................................30Thumper.........................................................................................................................................................33Not Top of Docket..........................................................................................................................................34CIR Fails.........................................................................................................................................................35Turn – Economy.............................................................................................................................................36Turn – LA Relations.......................................................................................................................................37

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UQ – Will Pass

CIR will pass – the Senate provided momentum and Obama is pressuring the HouseFoley, reporter for the Huffington Post, 6/27 (Elise, Senate Immigration Reform Bill Passes With Strong Majority, Huffington Post, www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/27/senate-immigration-reform-bill_n_3511664.html, MWH)

The bill's supporters in the Senate said they hope the House passes legislation that can be combined with the bill, and perhaps adds things they weren't able to include. ¶ "This isn't the end of the process, we're kind of at halftime," Hoeven said after the vote. "So the next thing is to figure out how we get the House to engage."¶ Flake, who served in the House before joining the Senate this year, predicted his former colleagues would feel pressure to act. He said he'd urge them, particularly those from Arizona, to consider the border security elements in the bill. "When people read that title, they'll be surprised at what's in it," he told reporters.¶ "Having served over there, whenever a good substantive bill comes with a significant vote, it's tough to ignore," he said. "Particularly this one -- there's going to be a lot of pressure to bring something up."¶ President Barack Obama promised to continue to press the House to move on immigration reform, and asked others to join in. ¶ "Today, the Senate did its job," he said in a statement. "It's now up to the House to do the same. As this process moves forward, I urge everyone who cares about this issue to keep a watchful eye. Now is the time when opponents will try their hardest to pull this bipartisan effort apart so they can stop commonsense reform from becoming a reality. We cannot let that happen."

CIR will pass – Boehner supports itBeutler, TPM's senior congressional reporter, 6/27 (Brian, Senate Passes Immigration Reform Bill, Hot Potato To Boehner, TPM, tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2013/06/senate-passes-immgration-reform-bill-hot-potato-to-boehner.php, MWH)

Days after President Obama was elected to serve a second term in office, a chastened House Speaker John Boehner did a huge about face on immigration reform. ¶ “This issue has been around far too long,” Boehner told ABC News. ”A comprehensive approach is long overdue, and I’m confident that the president, myself, others can find the common ground to take care of this issue once and for all.”¶ Coming from a man who’d loudly opposed much more modest immigration measures in the past, and who ostensibly controls the floor of the House of Representatives, his remarks represented a breakthrough — and a signal that if Republicans would change one thing in the aftermath of the election, it would be their hardline position on immigration.

CIR will pass – the GOP supports the Gang of Seven’s billMatthews, Reporter for the Washington Post, 6/27 (Dylan, Immigration reform has passed the Senate. Here’s how it passes the House., Washington Post, www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/06/27/immigration-reform-has-passed-the-senate-heres-how-it-passes-the-house/, MWH)

Rep. Luis Gutiérrez said Thursday that the House Gang of Seven bill — crafted by him, Xavier Becerra (D-Calif.), John Carter (R-Tex.), Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.), Luis Gutierrez (D-Ill.), Sam Johnson (R-Tex), Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.), and John Yarmuth (D-Ky.) — has been written, and he’s just waiting on the other members of the Gang (which was a Gang of Eight before Raul Labrador (R-Idaho) bolted).¶ The bill will almost certainly include a path to citizenship, border security measures, a guest worker program and other similar attributes to the Senate Gang of Eight bill. However, there will likely be significant differences. Diaz-Balart has said that he thinks some parts of the Senate bill — such as the scale of its guest worker program, as negotiated by the AFL-CIO and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce — are unworkable, and the House bill may reflect those differences of opinion.¶ Diaz-Balart has also sounded optimistic about passing the bill through the House with majority support from Republicans, allowing House Speaker John Boehner (R-Oh.) to obey the “Hastert rule,” wherein only bills supported by a “majority of the majority” reach the

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House floor. However, Gutiérrez has signaled it may be able to come to a vote without meeting that requirement. Some outside observers are optimistic about this channel; Clarissa Martínez-De-Castro, director for civic engagement and immigration at the National Council of La Raza, expressed optimism about it in an interview last month.

CIR will pass – Goodlatte’s measures may save the Senate’s billMatthews, Reporter for the Washington Post, 6/27 (Dylan, Immigration reform has passed the Senate. Here’s how it passes the House., Washington Post, www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/06/27/immigration-reform-has-passed-the-senate-heres-how-it-passes-the-house/, MWH)

Rep. Bob Goodlatte (R-Va.), the chair of the House Judiciary Committee who opposes a path to citizenship, has suggested a different path from the Gang of Seven. He’s already shepherded the SAFE Act, which criminalizes the act of being an undocumented immigrant, enabling local law enforcement to pursue undocumented immigrants, and the Ag Act, which establishes an agricultural guest worker program, through committee. He’s also introduced a bill to make the E-Verify program for checking workers’ legal status mandatory. ¶ So one option is that one or a package of Goodlatte’s bills passes the House and then goes into a conference committee with the Senate Gang of Eight bill. Whether the bill that gets out of conference looks anything like a comprehensive, path-to-citizenship bill is anyone’s guess, but this approach has the advantage of only making the House vote on a path to citizenship once, as Marshall Fitz, director of immigration policy at the Center for American Progress and a major player in the 2006 and 2007 efforts, told me last month. But this path could still require breaking the Hastert rule, especially if the conference report includes a path to citizenship.

CIR will pass – the Democrats can use a discharge petition to avoid the Hastert RuleMatthews, Reporter for the Washington Post, 6/27 (Dylan, Immigration reform has passed the Senate. Here’s how it passes the House., Washington Post, www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/06/27/immigration-reform-has-passed-the-senate-heres-how-it-passes-the-house/, MWH)

This is the most exotic option. If 218 House members sign what’s called a “discharge petition,” famous for its role in limiting the power of House Speaker Joseph Cannon (R-Ill.) and in the plot of “Legally Blonde 2: Red, White, and Blonde,” then they can bring a bill to the floor without a committee vote or the cooperation of the House leadership. There are 201 Democrats in the House, so they’d need 17 Republicans, not to mention a unified caucus, to succeed. But that’s a way for the House to vote on a comprehensive bill without Boehner breaking the Hastert rule and without the support of most Republicans.

Immigration will pass now – Optimism in SenateCohen, CNN Politics reporter, 6/26(Tom; “Senate takes another step toward passing immigration reform”; 6/26/2013; http://www.cnn.com/2013/06/26/politics/senate-immigration/index.html) Austin BaeA compromise amendment intended to ease congressional passage of sweeping immigration legislation easily won Senate approval Wednesday. The 69-29 vote set up a procedural motion immediately afterward to limit debate on the roughly 1,200-page bill, which would provide an eventual path to citizenship for millions of immigrants living illegally in the country. While some further amendments still could be considered, the measure appeared headed to a final Senate vote by the end of the week after the procedural motion passed in a 67-31 vote.

CIR will pass – political action committeesJackson, White House reporter, 6/21 (David, "Obama to urge backers to pressure Congress in August," USA Today, www.usatoday.com/story/theoval/2013/06/21/obama-organizing-for-action-summit/2447121/, MWH)

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A pro-Obama organization said Friday that Obama will address an "Action August" summit designed "to plan for and discuss the action we will be taking during the August congressional recess in order to ensure that the voice of the people is heard and that Members of Congress are held accountable by those they represent." ¶ Organizing for Action said Obama will speak July 22 at "a working dinner with grass-roots leaders, volunteers, OFA founding members, campaign alumni and OFA staff to thank them for everything they are doing, but also to reaffirm that there is still so much left to do."¶ Among the issues that OFA and Obama are pushing: an immigration bill, gun-control legislation and a new budget deal with higher taxes on the wealthy.

CIR won't pass - House won't even vote on senate bill Davis, chief congressional correspondent for USA TODAY, 6-27-13 (Susan, House GOP opposes Senate-passed immigration bill, www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/06/27/immigration-faces-battle-in-gop-house/2465017/)CTLSenate passage of a comprehensive immigration overhaul sparked no excitement in the GOP-controlled House, where Republican leaders continue to oppose the Senate bill in favor of a piecemeal approach to addressing the nation's immigration system. "The House is not going to take up and vote on whatever the Senate passes. We're going to do our own bill through regular order, and it'll be legislation that reflects the will of our majority and the will of the American people," said House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio. "And for any legislation, including a (final bill), to pass the House, it's going to have to be a bill that has the support of the majority of our members." Boehner has faced criticism in his own party for passing major legislation – including the bill at the start of the year to avert the "fiscal cliff" – by relying on the support of House Democrats to overcome the opposition of conservative Republicans. He vowed Thursday that he would not do so on immigration. House Republicans will hold a special closed-door meeting July 10 to discuss the way forward on immigration, but leading lawmakers have made clear that there is broad opposition to the Senate's comprehensive approach and little GOP interest in a bill that includes a pathway to citizenship for the 11 million undocumented immigrants until the U.S.-Mexican border is secured.

CIR will pass- Senate bipartisanship pushes bill Altman, Time staff Writer, 6-27-13 (Alex, "In Historic Vote, Senate Passes Bipartisan Immigration Bill But this may be as far as it goes", Time Swampland, swampland.time.com/2013/06/27/in-historic-vote-senate-passes-bipartisan-immigration-bill/) CTLHouse Republicans will begin to sketch out their immigration strategy at a conference meeting on July 10, after Congress returns from a week-long recess. Speaker John Boehner has said that any bill that emerges from the House should have a majority of support from both parties. But it is hard to fathom a compromise that would satisfy both the Republican majority, which is leery of comprehensive reform and prefers a piecemeal approach that enforces security provisions first, and the bipartisan Senate bill that ties border security to the path to citizenship.¶ Though the future of the bill is murky, advocates heralded Thursday’s vote as a triumph — and perhaps a harbinger that the polarization which has frozen the Senate has begun to thaw. “I see this as a significant step toward the U.S. Senate being able to work together in a bipartisan fashion to do something significant,” said South Carolina Republican Lindsey Graham, one of eight senators who spent months crafting the legislation. “This should give you a little bit of hope.”

CIR will pass - Bipartisanship evident Nevarez, staff writer, 6-25 13 (Griselda, "Menendez expects ‘strong bipartisan vote’ for immigration reform bill", Voxxi, CTL, http://www.voxxi.com/menendez-immigration-reform-bill/)

As the Senate prepares to vote on the immigration reform bill offered by the Gang of Eight, Sen. Bob

Menendez (D-N.J.) said he is confident the bill he helped craft will pass this week with “very strong”

bipartisan support. “We are on the path to finishing this week and passing comprehensive immigration

reform and moving it to the House with what I believe will be a very strong bipartisan vote,” he said

Tuesday during a Google+ Hangout with advocates. As it stands, the bill offers undocumented immigrants

a chance to become U.S. citizens. It provides Dreamers and agricultural workers with a fast track to apply

for legal permanent residency and ultimately citizenship. It helps clear the backlog of visa applicants who

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have been waiting for years to come to the United States. And it includes provision to ramp up border

security and improve immigration enforcement. “This is a good bill,” Menendez said, adding that an “ideal

bill” would’ve been the original bill that he and the other members of the Gang of Eight wrote. “We can all

strive for the ideal but never make it into law and that means millions stay in the shadow, Dreamers don’t

realize their dreams and families don’t get reunited,” he added.

CIR will pass- House likely to pass the bill post- senate vote CNN, up to date political media, 6-26-13 ("Senate takes another step toward passing immigration reform",

CNN, www.cnn.com/2013/06/26/politics/senate-immigration/index.html) CTL

Washington (CNN) -- A compromise amendment intended to ease congressional passage of sweeping

immigration legislation easily won Senate approval Wednesday.

The 69-29 vote set up a procedural motion immediately afterward to limit debate on the roughly 1,200-page

bill, which would provide an eventual path to citizenship for millions of immigrants living illegally in the

country. While some further amendments still could be considered, the measure appeared headed to a final

Senate vote by the end of the week after the procedural motion passed in a 67-31 vote. Backers of the bill

want the Democratic-led Senate to pass it with a solid majority to demonstrate growing bipartisan

momentum as the measure heads to the GOP-controlled House of Representatives. The compromise

amendment by Republicans John Hoeven of North Dakota and Bob Corker of Tennessee would increase

border security, a demand by conservative opponents of the immigration bill. "I hope our colleagues in the

House of Representatives will follow the Senate's lead, and work to pass bipartisan reform that both

Democrats and Republicans can support," Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nevada, said before

Wednesday's votes. Conservative GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa, an opponent of the Senate bill,

conceded it’s likely to pass and called on House Republicans to make things right.

CIR will Pass- GOP will take the blame if it failsBouie, Writer for American Prospect and Knobler Fellow at the Nation Institute, 6-24-13 (Jamelle, “The

GOP Loses Big if Immigration Reform Fails”, The American Prospect, http://prospect.org/article/gop-

loses-big-if-immigration-reform-fails) CTLAs a member of the Gang of Eight, South Carolina Senator Lindsay Graham is one of the most prominent Republican proponents of comprehensive immigration reform. His motives are straightforward: For the GOP to stay competitive, it needs to make inroads with Latino voters. Creating a path to citizenship for existing immigrants—and smoothing the process for future ones—is the only way Republicans can begin to repair their relationship with a community that has been alienated by the party’s harsh—sometimes xenophobic—rhetoric on immigration. Graham’s latest word on the subject was yesterday, on Fox News Sunday, where he warned Republicans of what would happen if they failed to get behind the comprehensive reform bill currently making its way through the Senate. “If it fails,” he said, “and [Republicans] are blamed for its failure, our party is in trouble with Hispanics; not because we are conservative but because of the rhetoric and the way we’ve handled this issue.” Insofar that there are any points of agreement between me and Lindsay Graham, this is one of them. Latino voters don’t trust the Republican Party. Both because of their policies—hence President Obama’s three-to-one margin among Hispanics in last year’s election—and because of their rhetoric. According to a recent survey from Latino Decisions—a group that tracks and measures Latino public opinion—strongly worded statements against comprehensive immigration reform from Republican senators (in particular, Ted Cruz of Texas and Jeff

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Sessions of Alabama) harm the party’s standing with Hispanic voters. As Latino Decisions explains, “The results demonstrate that there is no ‘distancing from the party’ when it comes to the immigration reform bill and associated position-taking. It is perfectly reasonable that Latino voters view elected officials as spokespeople for their party, and either reward or blame them in similar proportion.”

CIR will pass – It is the only chance of GOP revivalWashington post 6-27-13 (“On immigration reform, seasoned Alabama senator again leading voice of

opposition”, Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/congress/on-immigration-reform-

seasoned-alabama-senator-again-leading-voice-of-opposition/2013/06/27/307d35ee-def2-11e2-ad2e-

fcd1bf42174d_story.html) CTL

After voters in 2012 returned Obama to a second term in the White House and increased the Democrats’

majority in the Senate, the Republican National Committee said in a post-mortem that “comprehensive

immigration reform” is key to a GOP comeback. Enough of Sessions’ GOP colleagues, led by telegenic

and ambitious Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, chose to allow the Senate bill to move toward a final vote.

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UQ – Top of Docket Senate push Immigration nowParker, Washington Post reporter, 6/24(Ashley; “Senate Vote on Border Gives Push to Immigration Overhaul”; 6/24/2013; http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/25/us/politics/senate-endorses-proposal-calling-for-extra-border-security-measures.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0) Austin BaeThe bipartisan push to overhaul the nation’s immigration laws took a major step forward Monday evening when the Senate endorsed a proposal to substantially bolster security along the nation’s southern borders as part of a measure that would provide a path to citizenship for 11 million undocumented immigrants already in the country. The 67-to-27 vote prevented any filibuster of the plan to devote roughly $40 billion over the next decade to border enforcement measures, including nearly doubling the number of border agents to 40,000 and completing 700 miles of fencing. Opponents of the measure questioned whether the security steps would ever be taken and said that the legislation should require that the border be secure before undocumented immigrants could seek legal status. But the solid bipartisan support for the border security proposal by two Republican senators, Bob Corker of Tennessee and John Hoeven of North Dakota, suggested that advocates of the overhaul had the votes needed to clear remaining hurdles and pass the legislation, which was drafted by a bipartisan “Gang of Eight” senators, perhaps before lawmakers leave town for the July Fourth recess.

Immigration reform on top of the docket – Senators push for final voteWerner, Associated Press for Newser, 6/26(Erica; “Sweeping immigration bill advances in Senate as senators push toward final vote”; 6/26/2013; http://www.newser.com/article/da75ik401/sweeping-immigration-bill-advances-in-senate-as-senators-push-toward-final-vote.html) Austin BaeThe Senate pushed landmark immigration legislation past final hurdles Wednesday, pointing to near-certain passage soon of a measure that would open the door to U.S. citizenship for millions of people. The bill sidestepped several procedural obstacles with votes to spare, demonstrating it commands well over the 60 votes needed to pass the Senate. That could happen early as Thursday, with the next stop in the House, where an uncertain future awaits. The White House-backed bill would pour billions into border security and offer a path to citizenship to some 11 million immigrants now in the United States illegally. "A permanent, common-sense solution to our dysfunctional system is really in sight," said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev. "It is my hope that our colleagues in the House will follow the Senate's lead and work to pass bipartisan reform and do it now." That's more than enough to ensure the 60-vote margin needed for passage, as all 52 Democrats and the two independents who usually vote with them look likely to stick together.

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UQ – AT: Unpop W/ GOP Republic opposition does not affect passing of BillsMarcotte 2/28/13(Amanda; “VAWA reauthorized by the House”; http://www.slate.com/authors.amanda_marcotte.html; 2/28/13)MQ+ABFive hundred days since letting the Violence Against Women Act expire , House Republicans finally caved today and voted to reauthorize the bill, which was first passed in 1994 to help victims of rape and domestic violence find

safety, care and justice. VAWA passed the House today with a vote of 286-138 (with the 138 against being all Republican ) , and President Obama is expected to sign it once it gets to his desk. Republicans aren't too happ y about this

turn of events, but their ongoing resistance to this popular legislation was starting to make them look like monsters, so they didn't have much of a choice. Since VAWA expired, House Republicans have been resisting the version of the bill that passed the Senate with a vote of 78-22. They objected mainly to expanded protections for LGBT victims, immigrants, and Native Americans. The last group became a particular sticking point, with House Majority Leader Eric Cantor taking the lead in objecting to a provision that would allow tribal authorities jurisdiction in some cases where non-Native Americans rape or assault a Native American on tribal lands. House Republicans offered an alternative bill that didn't have these expanded protections, which was voted down this morning before the more expansive Senate version passed.

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Michael, 06/28/13,

you suck

http://www.slate.com/authors.amanda_marcotte.html


UQ – PC High Obama’s PC is high – G-8 Summit provesAP, 6/18 (Obama’s influence and limitations both on display at G-8; trip continues in Germany, Washington Post, www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/at-the-g-8-leaders-seek-a-syria-consensus-despite-a-us-russia-divide/2013/06/18/2672c21e-d7d4-11e2-b418-9dfa095e125d_story.html, MWH)

Now a veteran of the international summit scene, President Barack Obama wielded significant influence over the agenda at this week’s Group of Eight meetings, but had only modest success in achieving the results he sought.¶ It was Obama’s recent move to arm Syria’s rebel fighters that catapulted the two-year civil war to the top of the agenda as leaders gathered at a lakeside resort in Northern Ireland. But the president made little progress in pushing Russian President Vladimir Putin to drop his support for the Syrian government, resulting in a final statement from the leaders that endorsed a political solution to the violence but stopped short of calling for President Bashar Assad to leave power.¶ The president also was at the center of a breakthrough with European Union leaders on starting negotiations on a sweeping free trade pact eagerly sought by the White House. But the U.S. was unable to convince France to drop its demands that its film industry be off limits in an eventual deal, a hurdle that could prove problematic when negotiations begin next month.¶ Obama’s mixed results underscore both the broad reach and the limitations of American power at a time when the president is grappling with an array of foreign policy problems, all with implications for U.S. national security. Among them: winding down the war in Afghanistan, combating alleged Chinese cyberhacking, and nuclear threats from Iran and North Korea.¶ The Syrian conflict, which has resulted in at least 93,000 deaths, has garnered the most attention, both in Washington and at the summit. Despite Obama’s failure to break new ground with Putin, U.S. officials said the summit’s final statement on Syria was the best that could be expected given the entrenched differences between Russia and a U.S.-Western European coalition.¶ “Given the various ways the G-8 could have gone, we believe that on the key issues of political transition, humanitarian support and chemical weapons investigation, it’s very helpful to have this type of signal sent by these eight countries,” Ben Rhodes, Obama’s deputy national security adviser, told reporters traveling with Obama from Northern Ireland to Berlin following the summit’s conclusion.¶ Political transitions — and sometimes political turmoil — have lifted Obama to veteran status among the G-8 leaders. The Northern Ireland summit marked his fifth appearance at the annual meeting of leading industrial nations and his first since winning re-election. ¶

Obama’s PC is high now – the passage of CIR in the Senate was a huge achievementSilverleib, CNN Congressional Produce, 6/27 (Alan, Senate passes sweeping immigration bill , CNN, www.cnn.com/2013/06/27/politics/immigration/?hpt=hp_bn3, MWH)

The U.S. Senate gave final approval Thursday to a roughly 1,200-page bill that promises to overhaul immigration laws for the first time since 1986, creating a path to citizenship for millions of undocumented residents while ratcheting up security along the Mexican border.¶ Senators passed the sweeping legislation -- initially drafted by the four Democrats and four Republicans in the chamber's so-called "Gang of Eight" -- by a 68-32 vote. ¶ Fourteen Republicans joined a united Democratic caucus in supporting the bill, which is backed by the White House and has the potential to become the crowning legislative achievement of President Barack Obama's second term. ¶ In a White House statement, Obama hailed the Senate vote as "a critical step" toward fixing what he called a broken immigration system. He labeled the measure that now goes to the Republican-controlled House a compromise, adding that "we just need Congress to finish the job."

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*** Link Debate

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Link – Cuba – General Pro-Cuba policies cost PCRadelat, 12 (Ana, journalist/correspondent, of the University of Maryland School of Journalism, http://www.latinomagazine.com/summer12/features/cuba.htm, MWH)

LeoGrande is more optimistic. He said “people-to-people travel “has made a tremendous difference” in the way Americans and Cubans view each other. LeoGrande also believes Obama could use his existing authority to do much to change policy toward Cuba. He said the administration could respond to Cuba’s willingness to negotiate people-smuggling pacts and enter into new counternarcotics agreements. “It’s really a question of political will ,” he said. “It’s really in our best interest to cooperate with them.”

The plan is politically controversial – empirics proveHanson and Lee, 1/31 (Stephanie, associate director and coordinating editor at Council of Foreign Relations, Brianna, senior production editor at Council of Foreign Relations, http://www.cfr.org/cuba/us-cuba-relations/p11113, MWH)

Many recent policy reports have recommended that the United States take some unilateral steps to roll back sanctions on Cuba. The removal of sanctions, however, would be just one step in the process of normalizing relations. Such a process is sure to be controversial, as indicated by the heated congressional debate spurred in March 2009 by attempts to ease travel and trade restrictions in a large appropriations bill. "Whatever we call it--normalization, détente, rapproachement--it is clear that the policy process risks falling victim to the politics of the issue," says Sweig.

Conservative Cuban-American votes are key – Obama won’t risk them with policy changesFinancial Times 13 (“Obama’s second term: the world awaits,” Financial Times, 6-27, AAD, <http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b14b2c70-63bf-11e2-af8c-00144feab49a.html#axzz2XUUpLWIq>)

It is hard to find many Latin Americans who think Mr Obama’s second term will mark a change in US policy. In part that is because US attitudes towards the region remain characterised by indifference when there are more urgent issues at home and abroad. And in part it is because the main issues – immigration; normalising ties with Cuba; and curbing US drug use and the violence associated with drug-trafficking, especially through gun control – contain large doses of US domestic politics. Immigration reform is likely to make the most progress. Mr Obama has been explicit that reform is a top priority – especially as a central lesson of the last election was that the “Latino vote” was decisive in his victory. Less is expected on Cuba and drugs. In Florida, Mr Obama won about half of the Cuban American vote. Younger Cuban-Americans, who are not single-issue voters like the older generation, want to change a policy that has demonstrably failed. But while changing US policy on Cuba would win Mr Obama plaudits in the region, it holds few political benefits for him domestically. John Kerry, Secretary of State, has also long been a critic of the US embargo. However, changing it would require an act of Congress – whose Cuban American members, including three Senators, would oppose change. The drugs problem is more complex still. The states of Colorado and Washington have voted to legalise marijuana. But it remains illegal at the federal level, so these votes expose a contradiction, especially for Mexicans, who have taken on drug-smuggling cartels with great loss of life.

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Link – Cuba – People to People Empirics flow neg – overtures to Cuba cost tons of PCRadelat, 12 (Ana, journalist/correspondent, of the University of Maryland School of Journalism, http://www.latinomagazine.com/summer12/features/cuba.htm, MWH)

Still, there have been minor changes in Cuba and in U.S.-Cuba relations since Obama assumed office. Early in his term, Obama kept a campaign promise to liberalize Cuban-American travel to Cuba, which had been severely restricted by the Bush administration. Obama also initiated a “people-to-people” policy that allows Americans with a purpose---such as academics, professionals attending an conference and amateur athletes--- to skirt the embargo’s restriction on travel to Cuba. That policy, first tried by former President Clinton, has spawned a run of trips to the island sponsored by U.S. universities and nonprofit groups.¶

Sabatini said political pressures have kept the Obama administration from touting any possible success of its policy. “They were hoping to open things a little and then run away and hope nobody noticed,” he said. But some did notice, including Cuban-American embargo supporters like Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla.. He held up Obama’s nominee to head a State Department office in charge of the Americas because he said increased travel to Cuba is enriching its government, and because he thinks most of the trips amount to no more than frivolous tourism that don’t help the Cuban people. Rubio released his hold on the nomination of Roberta Jacobson after the administration promised to impose a $65,000 fine on violators of the travel rules.¶ In May, the Obama administration made a tiny overture to Havana by granting visas to Mariela Castro Espín, Raul Castro’s daughter and a prominent advocate for gay rights who wanted to attend a conference in San Francisco and visit New York, and to Eusebio Leal, the prominent historian who is in charge of restoring Havana’s oldest neighborhoods. Leal, a senior member of the Cuban Communist Party, gave a speech at the Brookings Institution in Washington.¶ Once again, the move brought blistering criticism from a Cuban-American lawmaker. “The administration must stop bending over backwards to accommodate the needs, whims, and requests of this state sponsor of terrorism that, again, is located just 90 miles from U.S. shores,” said Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Fla. Sabatini said Obama administration efforts to improve relations right now “would take political courage , which so far appears to be lacking.”

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Link – Cuba – Immigration Empirics flow neg – overtures to Cuba cost tons of PCRadelat, 12 (Ana, journalist/correspondent, of the University of Maryland School of Journalism, http://www.latinomagazine.com/summer12/features/cuba.htm, MWH)

Still, there have been minor changes in Cuba and in U.S.-Cuba relations since Obama assumed office. Early in his term, Obama kept a campaign promise to liberalize Cuban-American travel to Cuba, which had been severely restricted by the Bush administration. Obama also initiated a “people-to-people” policy that allows Americans with a purpose---such as academics, professionals attending an conference and amateur athletes--- to skirt the embargo’s restriction on travel to Cuba. That policy, first tried by former President Clinton, has spawned a run of trips to the island sponsored by U.S. universities and nonprofit groups.¶

Sabatini said political pressures have kept the Obama administration from touting any possible success of its policy. “They were hoping to open things a little and then run away and hope nobody noticed,” he said. But some did notice, including Cuban-American embargo supporters like Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla.. He held up Obama’s nominee to head a State Department office in charge of the Americas because he said increased travel to Cuba is enriching its government, and because he thinks most of the trips amount to no more than frivolous tourism that don’t help the Cuban people. Rubio released his hold on the nomination of Roberta Jacobson after the administration promised to impose a $65,000 fine on violators of the travel rules.¶ In May, the Obama administration made a tiny overture to Havana by granting visas to Mariela Castro Espín, Raul Castro’s daughter and a prominent advocate for gay rights who wanted to attend a conference in San Francisco and visit New York, and to Eusebio Leal, the prominent historian who is in charge of restoring Havana’s oldest neighborhoods. Leal, a senior member of the Cuban Communist Party, gave a speech at the Brookings Institution in Washington.¶ Once again, the move brought blistering criticism from a Cuban-American lawmaker. “The administration must stop bending over backwards to accommodate the needs, whims, and requests of this state sponsor of terrorism that, again, is located just 90 miles from U.S. shores,” said Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Fla. Sabatini said Obama administration efforts to improve relations right now “would take political courage , which so far appears to be lacking.”

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Link – Cuba – Terrorism List – Ros-Lehtinen Ros-Lehtinen opposes the plan – poses a national security risk Derby, Sunshine State News Associate Editor, 2013, (Kevin, “Edward Snowden, Cuba and Ecuador Draw Fire From Florida Congresswoman”, 6-24, AAD) http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/blog/edward-snowden-cuba-and-ecuador-draw-fire-florida-congresswoman

Over the weekend, as the world wondered where Edward Snowden, the former CIA analyst who leaked NSA information to the press, is headed, U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen , R-Fla., ripped into the Cuban regime . Snowden was expected to be headed to Cuba but he was not on a flight to that communist nation on Monday. “ It would not be surprising if the NSA leaker finds safe haven in Cuba or Venezuela, two regimes that have a longstanding history of giving refuge to fugitives from U.S. law,” Ros-Lehtinen said on Sunday. “Let us not forget that Phillip Agee, former CIA agent, leaked classified information about CIA personnel and fled the U.S. to seek refuge until he passed away in 2008 in Cuba. “The cruel irony is that there are no press freedoms in either Cuba or Venezuela, yet Snowden -- who supposedly stands for transparency in government -- seeks refuge in police states like these two countries,” she added. “ Those who misrule over Cuba and Venezuela , Raul Castro and Nicolas Maduro, do not allow independent free press, do not cooperate on terrorism-related issues, disregard due process and an independent judicial system. “Cuba – a U.S. designated State Sponsor of Terrorism - is currently harboring over 70 fugitives, including Joanne Chesimard who is on the F ederal Bureau of Investigation’s Most Wanted Terrorist list . The Cuban regime has also used our senior health care system, Medicare, to scam the American people in order to funnel funds to the Castro thugs,” Ros-Lehtinen continued. “ I’m concerned that Castro or Maduro can use the NSA leaker as a bargaining chip to get more concessions from the Obama administration. Cuba has a sophisticated espionage service that controls the Venezuelan regime and undermines U.S. interests. If the NSA leaker shares our intelligence capabilities with either authoritarian state, it would further jeopardize our national security. ”

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Link – Cuban Embargo Lifting the Cuban Embargo costs political capital – leads to a fierce political fight Cave, Foreign Correspondent for the NY Times, 2012, (Damien; Pulitzer Prize in 2008; “Easing of Restraints in Cuba Renews Debate on U.S. Embargo”; New York Times; November 19th) Austin Bae, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/20/world/americas/changes-in-cuba-create-support-for-easing-embargo.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

In Washington, Mr. Gross is seen as the main impediment to an easing of the embargo, but there are also limits to what the president could do without Congressional action. The 1992 Cuban Democracy Act conditioned the waiving of sanctions on the introduction of democratic changes inside Cuba. The 1996 Helms-Burton Act also requires that the embargo remain until Cuba has a transitional or democratically elected government. Obama administration officials say they have not given up, and could move if the president decides to act on his own. Officials say that under the Treasury Department’s licensing and regulation-writing authority, there is room for significant modification. Following the legal logic of Mr. Obama’s changes in 2009, further expansions in travel are possible along with new allowances for investment or imports and exports, especially if narrowly applied to Cuban businesses. Even these adjustments — which could also include travel for all Americans and looser rules for ships engaged in trade with Cuba, according to a legal analysis commissioned by the Cuba Study Group — would probably mean a fierce political fight. The handful of Cuban-Americans in Congress for whom the embargo is sacred oppose looser rules. “The sanctions on the regime must remain in place and, in fact, should be strengthened, and not be altered,” she wrote in an e-mail. “Responsible nations must not buy into the facade the dictatorship is trying to create by announcing ‘reforms’ while, in reality, it’s tightening its grip on its people.”

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http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/20/world/americas/changes-in-cuba-create-support-for-easing-embargo.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/20/world/americas/changes-in-cuba-create-support-for-easing-embargo.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0


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*** Internal Link

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Rubio K2 CIR Rubio key to CIR passageBarnes, 4/24, 2013, (Fred, Fred Barnes: Immigration Reform Is Starting to Roll, WSJ, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324874204578441133717872550.html?mod=dist_smartbrief, MWH)

The other is Republican Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida. His role is as critical as the president's, but for a different reason. Mr. Obama can stymie legislation, but Mr. Rubio's leadership is essential to passing immigration reform in the first place. This is why Republican Sens. John McCain and Lindsey Graham, longtime advocates of reform, recruited him and created the bipartisan "Gang of Eight" with four Republicans and four Democrats.¶ Mr. Rubio is "a game-changer," says Mr. Graham. "He brings a lot to the table," with solid conservative credentials and a large following among Republicans. Mr. Rubio is ambitious and often mentioned as a presidential candidate in 2016. But as a Cuban-American, he has motives that are more personal and ideological than purely political. This enhances his credibility.¶ Yet the favorable climate for changing the U.S. immigration system doesn't mean it's a cinch to pass. There are formidable opponents. Sen. Jeff Sessions of Alabama, probably the most underrated Republican on Capitol Hill, is already a dogged critic of the legislation drafted by the Gang of Eight. So is Ted Cruz of Texas, the smart and outspoken Senate freshman.¶ In the House, "it's going to be a lift," says Florida Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, a member of a bipartisan group developing a bill expected to be similar to the Gang of Eight's. "It's super-emotional and technically very difficult."¶ Sen. Marco Rubio, flanked by Sens. Charles Schumer and John McCain, at the April 18 unveiling of the 'Gang of Eight' immigration-reform bill.¶ Outside of Capitol Hill, a large chunk of the conservative media are aligned against immigration reform. National Review insists that "a great deal" of the bill is "deeply objectionable."¶ Then there is the Boston bombing. Its impact on the fate of immigration legislation is unclear, but it isn't likely to make passage any easier. GOP Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky said the bombing has exposed "a weakness in our current system." If the immigration debate isn't used "as an opportunity to fix flaws . . . made even more evident last week, then we will not be doing our jobs."¶ Mr. Rubio echoed Mr. Paul. "I disagree with those who say that the terrorist attack in Boston has no bearing on the immigration debate," he said in a statement on Monday. "The attack reinforces why immigration reform should be a lengthy, open, and transparent process." The current schedule calls for a final vote before the July 4 congressional recess.¶ That may be optimistic. The Gang of Eight's bill is 844 pages long and provides opponents with plenty of opportunities for objections. It would create two stages toward citizenship—first legal residency here, second a green card and permanent status. Border security would have to be bolstered in measurable ways before green cards are issued and a path to becoming citizens is opened.¶ The security aspects of the bill—which have prompted serious attacks, mostly from conservatives—are both complicated and open to different interpretations. For instance, if in five years from the bill's enactment all nine segments of the Southwest border aren't 100% secure, and if 90% of those crossing illegally aren't being apprehended, then a Southern Border Security Commission of four governors and six Washington appointees would draft a new security plan. Whether the commission would have the authority to impose its plan is in dispute.¶ To answer critics, Mr. Rubio's Gang of Eight allies have largely stood aside and let him respond. He is neither shy nor risk-averse. He volunteered to appear on the talk-radio show of Mark Levin, a conservative and opponent of the proposed reform bill. The senator told Rush Limbaugh that the four governors on the 10-member border commission "will take care of this problem and they'll be given the money to be able to take care of it." He didn't explain exactly how.¶ Mr. Rubio is best at touting the virtues of immigration reform and refuting the notion that Hispanics, once citizens, will overwhelmingly vote Democratic. "I think the future of conservatism and, in fact, the future of America depends on how effective we are at explaining to as many Americans as possible why the road we are on right now is such an economic disaster," he said on the Limbaugh show. "I just refuse to accept the notion that somehow we're not going to be able to make that argument successfully to Hispanics."

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Rubio is key to getting GOP votes and passing CIRLillis, 12 (Mike, Dem Rep. Gutierrez: Sen. Rubio key to immigration reform, The Hill, http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/270007-democrat-gutierrez-rubio-key-to-immigration-reform, MWH)

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) is key to Congress enacting immigration reforms next year, Rep. Luis Gutierrez said Wednesday.¶ The Illinois Democrat, Congress’s most vocal proponent of immigrant rights, is trying to rally lawmakers behind the comprehensive immigration reforms that conservatives in Congress have blocked for a decade. In Rubio — a Cuban-American seen as presidential material in the Republican Party — Gutierrez hopes he’s found the GOP ally who can get a plan over the finish line. ¶ “He’ll play a critical role — a necessary, critical role,” Gutierrez said. “He is a new voice of the Republican Party. He’s a youthful voice. And he was one of the first people who got it; he got it before the Nov. 6 — how should we call Nov. 6? — shellacking.”

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Ros-Lehtinen K2 CIR Ros-Lehtinen key to CIRHenderson, 6/1, 2013 (Jeff, political writer, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen Keeps Focus on Latin America, Cuba, http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/dont-tell-ileana-ros-lehtinen-cuba-isnt-terrorist-state, MWH)

After relinquishing the gavel of the House Foreign Affairs Committee after the 2012 elections, Florida Republican U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen was expected to focus more on other areas of the world besides Latin America, especially as she chairs the House Middle East and North Africa Subcommittee.¶ But Ros-Lehtinen, the first Hispanic woman and the first Cuban-American elected to Congress, remains a major player in Washington when it comes to Latin America.

Ros-Lehtinen key to CIRHenderson, 6/1, 2013 (Jeff, political writer, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen Keeps Focus on Latin America, Cuba, http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/dont-tell-ileana-ros-lehtinen-cuba-isnt-terrorist-state, MWH)

With almost 25 years in Congress, Ros-Lehtinen is remaining one of the GOP’s leaders on international issues even though she no longer chairs the Foreign Affairs Committee. Even as her focus is more geared toward the Middle East, Ros-Lehtinen is not taking her eyes off Latin America and the Castro regime in Cuba.

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***Impact

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Economy – Deficit IL Immigration reform boosts the economy – decreases the deficit Miami Herald, 2013, (Editorial, "Economic impact of immigration reform a plus", 6-22, Austin Bae) www.miamiherald.com/2013/06/22/3464250/economic-impact-of-immigration.html

Advocates of providing a road to citizenship for undocumented immigrants — however long and winding that road might be — have spent years making the moral argument, the humane argument, the practical argument against separating parents here illegally from their American-born children or shipping 11 million souls back across the border or over an ocean. But supporters making the economic argument in favor of rigorous, but compassionate, reform got the biggest boost yet last week. The Congressional Budget Office released a report that projects if Senate Bill 744 were enacted, changes in direct spending and revenues “would decrease federal budget deficits by $197 billion over the 2014-2023 period.” The CBO also estimates that the legislation would result in discretionary costs of $22 billion during that same period. This would lead to a net savings of about $175 billion between 2014 and 2023. No matter how robust the U.S. economy — and it’s not right now — $175 billion is not chump change. Over the following decade, the CBO estimates that savings could reach $700 billion. For fiscal year 2014 alone, the federal budget deficit is expected to be $744 billion.

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http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/06/22/3464250/economic-impact-of-immigration.html


Economy – AT: Alternative Causes Group the alternative causes to growth

1. Extend Haskins 13. This evidence is comparatively better because 1. Haskins is a senior economist fellow at Brookings making him very qualified to discuss immigrants’ effects on the economy

2. Haskins cites empirical evidence that says Immigrants are very successful in citizenship and the US is specifically missing out on a 30% rise in business related employees. This creates GDP growth.

3. Immigrant workers key to the economy – Both high and low-skilled workers Vital to maintain first world lifestyleBloomberg 12 (Why More Immigration, Not Less, Is Key to U.S. Economic Growth, Bloomburg 10-28, http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-10-28/why-more-immigration-not-less-is-key-to-u-dot-s-dot-economic-growth.) CTL

High-tech industries probably have the most to gain from action on immigration. Carl Lin of Rutgers University looked at the impact on tech stock prices of a doubling of H-1B visas for skilled foreign workers in the U.S., thanks to the 1998 American Competitiveness and Workforce Improvement Act. High-tech industries absorb around 80 percent of H-1B visa applicants. Lin estimates that in the month after the act passed, companies in those industries enjoyed 15 percent and higher cumulative excess returns—a measure of the impact of news on stock prices. More broadly, a Kauffman Foundation study by researcher Vivek Wadhwa suggested that in 2006, foreign nationals residing in the U.S. were named as inventors or co-inventors of one-quarter of all patent applications filed from the U.S. Wadhwa’s study of foreign-born entrepreneurs found that one-quarter of science and technology companies founded from 1995 to 2005 had a foreign-born lead technologist or chief economist. These businesses employed 450,000 workers. But it is not just at the level of entrepreneurs and inventors that immigration is playing an increasingly vital role in sustaining Americans’ quality of life. Patricia Cortes and Jessica Pan of Boston University and the National University of Singapore report (PDF) that foreign-educated nurses now account for 20 percent or more of all those taking the U.S. licensure exam—up from 6 percent in the mid-1980s. The considerable proportion of those nurses who were educated in the Philippines ended up earning 4 percent more than the average nursing wage in 2010, and Cortes and Pan suggest the reason for the premium is “quality differences.” One more reason Americans should get serious about immigration: When they get sick, they probably want to get treated by a Filipino nurse. At the low-education end of the scale, according to a 2011 Brookings Institution analysis of immigrant skills and employment in the U.S., low-skilled immigrants in the country had a higher level of employment and a lower rate of household poverty than native low-skilled populations, despite the fact that employed immigrants earned $5,000 less than employed natives. As the baby boom generation retires, the need for immigrant labor to sustain rich world lifestyles will climb higher. That problem used to look less serious in the U.S. than it did in Europe because, with a historical fertility rate near 2.1 compared with well below 2.0 in Europe, America’s demographic transition looked to be less dramatic. But since the financial crisis, U.S. fertility has also dropped below two children born per woman. Analysis by Moshe Hazan and Hosny Zoabi at Jerusalem’s Hebrew University finds that an important reason for historically large families in the U.S. was cheap child care, much of it provided by undocumented workers. If low-skilled migration stops, the fertility rate could remain permanently depressed, in which case the long-term “crisis” in entitlement programs, from Medicare to Social Security, that rely on a good ratio of workers to retirees will become an urgent problem.

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*** AFF Answers

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Non-Unique CIR won’t pass – the GOP opposes it and Senate momentum doesn’t matterWeigel, political reporter, 6/27 (David, House GOP Deputy Whip: Senate Immigration Bill is DOA, a "Pipe Dream," Weigel, www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2013/06/27/house_gop_deputy_whip_senate_immigration_bill_is_doa_a_pipe_dream.html, MWH)

Sometime today the Senate will probably vote for cloture on the omnibus immigration bill. It'll go through with a supermajority—maybe short of the 70 votes desired by Chuck Schumer, but probably more than 65 votes. Coincidentally, this morning, Illinois Rep. Peter Roskam told reporters that the Senate bill was DOA. ¶ "The House has no capacity to move that bill," said Roskam, the GOP's deputy whip. "It just won't happen. It's a pipe dream to think that bill will go to the floor."¶ Roskam counted out the reasons. First, most Republicans preferred to split up immigration bills and pass an enforcement measure first, not to tie enforcement to legalization. Second, House Republicans didn't care about the Senate anyway. "I remember when I was in the Illinois Senate," he said. "Someone would say about a bill, 'Well, it came out of the House 118-0.' A bunch of blank-faced senators would say, 'And?' " ¶ But the no-go reason Roskam kept returning to was all about electoral politics. "If you're the White House right now," he theorized, "and you have a signature law—that is, Obamacare—that is completely a legacy issue for the president, and it's looking like implementation is going to be a disaster, and if you're on your heels in terms of these scandals, and you're flummoxed by the NSA, there's one issue out there that's good for the White House. That's immigration. The question is: How much energy does the White House actually put into getting the legislation, or do they want to keep the issue for 2014?"¶ It's a paradoxical theory with a little whiff of projection. Roskam (like many Republicans) was saying that a desperate White House would rather run against Republicans in 2014 on the immigration issue than pass a bill and remove the issue. With that in mind, Roskam was saying Republicans would probably kill the bill, thus keeping the issue alive. How far has Obama crawled inside their heads?

CIR won’t pass – economic concernsRalph, Breaking News Writer, 6/27 (Talia, "Senate passes comprehensive immigration reform bill; House next," Global Post, www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/united-states/130627/immigration-bill-senate-vote-house-republicans, MWH)

The bill was expected to easily pass the Democrat-led Senate, but House Republicans have already said they won't even bring the law to a vote. ¶ "Until you get the fiscal issues settled, I wouldn't be looking for any big immigration fight if I was in leadership," Republican Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma said. ¶ “Of course I’m worried about it, but I want to get it right, I want it to work,” Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan said on Fox News Wednesday. “I want to make sure that we’re not in the same problem 10 years from now. I want immigration that’s good for our economy. I want an immigration system that protects our national security.”

CIR will pass – Senate momentumGannett News Service, 6/27 (Immigration bill unlikely to pass House, TribLIVE, triblive.com/usworld/nation/4272761-74/bill-senate-immigration#axzz2XT3c77Xx, MWH)

Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., a leader of the Gang of Eight, predicted that the House will not be able to ignore the strong bipartisan support the legislation received in the Senate. ¶ “I believe that support will propel it through the House and to the president's desk for his signature by the end of this year,” Schumer said.¶ Senators who supported the bill hope that the bulk of their legislation will survive after House and Senate negotiators meet to reconcile their versions of reform.

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CIR won’t pass – the House won’t take up the Senate billMcAuliff, Correstpondent for Huffington Post, 6/27 (Michael, John Boehner Sticks With Tough Path For Immigration In House, Huffington Post, www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/27/john-boehner-immigration_n_3511496.html, MWH)

The Senate may have passed a long-awaited bipartisan overhaul of the immigration system Thursday, but House Speaker John Boehner stood by his plan to set an exceptionally difficult path for a similar measure to succeed in his chamber. ¶ "The House is not going to take up and vote on whatever the Senate passes," Boehner (R-Ohio) told reporters, speaking shortly before the Senate bill passed. "We're going to do our own bill, through regular order."¶ Not only will that legislation have to go through the entire committee process in the House, whatever emerges will have to meet the "Hastert rule," named after former Speaker Denny Hastert (R-Ill.), which says the majority of the party in control of the House must back a given measure for it to receive a vote by the full chamber.

CIR won’t pass – Republican senators proveMcAuliff, Correstpondent for Huffington Post, 6/27 (Michael, John Boehner Sticks With Tough Path For Immigration In House, Huffington Post, www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/27/john-boehner-immigration_n_3511496.html, MWH)

Republican senators who back the bill were also not confident of its chances in the other chamber. ¶

"Speaker Boehner has a tough job," said Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), declining to guess if a majority of Republican House members would get on board.¶ "We'll see," said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), though he did argue that it was in the GOP caucus' interest to act.¶ "I'm very pleased, thankful -- got a long way to go," Graham said. "I think a lot of folks in the House will have a different view of this bill, but understand that you're not going to put everybody in jail, and self-deportation is not practical."¶ He was referring to staunch opposition on the right to any pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, including any measures that allow them to be legalized while remaining in the country.

Immigration Reform Won’t PassJohnson 6/24 (Fawn; Correspondent at National Journal; “Time’s Up. Immigration Won't Pass This Year”; http://www.nationaljournal.com/daily/time-s-up-immigration-won-t-pass-this-year-20130623; 6/24/2013) Austin BaeNothing less than a miracle will get major immigration legislation through Congress this year. It’s not the Senate’s fault, not this time. The upper chamber is well on track to comfortably pass this week a sweeping bill that would legalize millions of undocumented immigrants and dramatically boost troops on the border. Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., a leader in the immigration effort, said on CNN's State of the Union that two-thirds of the Senate is already in favor of the bill. But the House is slogging along on a piece-by-piece approach that does nothing but stretch out the debate until all that’s left are wisps of ideas on work visas, local police enforcement, and electronic verification of workers. Indeed, the House might not kill the bill outright, but the GOP players are passing the ball around until the clock runs out . What’s that clock look like? After senators get the bill done – probably in time to make their weekend barbeques -- they have a weeklong July 4 break. And then they get to wait for colleagues on the other side of the Capitol who will have four weeks – four weeks – to deliberate before Congress takes off for an even lengthier recess in August. Once Washington meets autumn, immigration falls off the priority track thanks to the reemergence of fiscal crisis.

Immigration Reform won’t pass despite Senate ApprovalLogiurato, Political Reporter for Business Insider, 6/27/2013 (Brett; “If John Boehner Isn't Bluffing, He Probably Just Killed Immigration Reform”; 6/27/2013; http://www.businessinsider.com/boehner-immigration-reform-hastert-rule-conference-committee-2013-6) Austin BaeHouse Speaker John Boehner said Thursday that he does not plan to bring any immigration bill — even a House-Senate compromise — to the House floor without a majority of Republicans supporting it. If Boehner sticks to his

guns, it is a significant blow to the chances of a comprehensive immigration reform bill becoming law by the end of this year.

The chances of a majority of Republicans in the House supporting a path to citizenship for unauthorized immigrants — and the chances of Democrats agreeing to a bill that doesn't include that provision — are both extremely slim. Still, Boehner took a more firm position than ever on the so-called "Hastert Rule" Thursday. "Apparently, some haven’t gotten the message" on his

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immigration strategy, Boehner told reporters at a press conference. “The House is not going to take up and vote on whatever the Senate passes. We’re going to do our own bill, through regular order, and it’ll be legislation that reflects the will of our majority and the will of the American people. For any legislation – including a conference report – to pass the House, it’s going to have to be a bill that has the support of a majority of our members. "Boehner's position is a firmer one than he took last week. When asked last week if he would require support from a majority of Republicans to bring an immigration bill to the floor, he only said, "We'll see when we get there." It's also a much more concrete position than Boehner took in early June, when he completely left the door open on breaking the so-called "Hastert Rule. "Boehner's statement came as the Senate is poised to pass its preferred solution to overhauling the nation's immigration laws with as many as 70 votes. It will not, however, earn support from a majority of Republican senators. The House Judiciary Committee has been working on a piece-by-piece approach to its own immigration solution. The problem will come if the two sides go into a conference meant to reconcile the pieces into one bill. Based on some Republicans' worries about the party's political future, it's likely that any reconciled bill would contain a path to citizenship. In any situation, it's hard to imagine a scenario in which a majority of House conservatives back legislation that would also garner 60 votes from a Democratic-controlled Senate

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Thumper Thumper – environmental regulationsKing, Editor of Responding to Climate Change, 6/27 (Ed, Comment: Obama raised expectations, now he must meet them, RTCC, www.rtcc.org/comment-obama-raised-expectations-now-he-must-meet-them/, MWH)

Was that the Obama speech climate campaigners have waited five years to hear? ¶ Or was it just a great speech?¶ There’s no doubt when it comes to set piece occasions, few can compete with the US President.¶

The question is if, and how, it changes the game.¶ For the largely sympathetic audience watching the speech in the blistering heat of Georgetown, there appears to be little doubt these were sincere words. ¶ Fred Krupp, President of the Environmental Defense League, a Washington think tank close to Obama met the President ahead of his address.¶ “From what he told me and from what he told the nation, I am leaving campus more hopeful and energized about our chances to prevent climate catastrophe than I have been in a long while,” he said.¶ This was a reasoned, rational and forceful address. More the pity no US national network picked it up.¶ Obama must deliver on the sentiments behind his strong climate action speech (Source: White House/Pete Souza)¶ Obama argued for action in plain language that the man on the street can understand, touching on economic growth, jobs, energy bills and taking responsibility for the future. ¶ And he touched a nerve with his call for his fellow countrymen to have faith in America’s capacity for change and renewal – effectively accusing his critics of being defeatist.¶ “The problem with all these tired excuses for inaction is that it suggests a fundamental lack of faith in American business and American ingenuity,” he said.¶ “These critics seem to think that when we ask our businesses to innovate and reduce pollution and lead, they can’t or they won’t do it. They’ll just kind of give up and quit. But in America, we know that’s not true. Look at our history.”¶ The meat in the sandwich for environmentalists was the promise of new regulations on coal and gas power stations. ¶ But this call to the man on the street to have faith in their country was the sauce – a cry to the heart of the USA, which prides itself on resourcefulness and innovation. ¶ Hope?¶ Setting the plan to one side. If this speech achieved anything, it was changing the narrative of climate change from struggle and disaster to hope and opportunity.¶ “A low-carbon, clean energy economy can be an engine of growth for decades to come. And I want America to build that engine. I want America to build that future – right here in the United States of America,” he added to applause.¶ This is the signal many business leaders want – a clear sign from one of the world’s most powerful men that the low carbon economy is the way forward.¶

If anyone doubts the effectiveness of that message today, check the share price of some of the biggest coal producers. Peabody’s price has slumped by 17% since June 15, although it revived by 1.2% last night.¶

Expect the war on coal rhetoric from Congress to double, and attacks on a President avoiding the heart of democracy to get louder. ¶ And it’s not just the leading coal companies or Republicans who are angry. ¶ Many greens believe this is simply not enough to avert a climate catastrophe. ¶ Nafeez Ahmed sums it up succinctly in the Guardian, describing it as ‘fatally compromised’ given Obama’s strong support for fracking.¶ He also picks up on a popular theme – that the USA’s 2009 pledge to cut emissions 17% on 2005 levels by 2020 is far too small for the world’s second largest emitter.¶ One veteran environment correspondent emailed me yesterday with the line: ‘If this is leadership, then I’m a banana’, a fruity burst of cynicism amid all the praise for Obama.¶ But given the background to this speech – and the political capital the President has now staked on getting the ball rolling – perhaps he deserves to be given a brief break.

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http://www.rtcc.org/comment-obama-raised-expectations-now-he-must-meet-them/

http://www.rtcc.org/comment-obama-raised-expectations-now-he-must-meet-them/


Not Top of Docket CIR Not priority – Apathy in the HouseJohnson, Correspondent for National Journal, 6/27/13

Republican House members are not willing to consider legislation that legalizes millions of undocumented immigrants, no matter how loud the Senate crows over a big bipartisan vote on immigration reform or how aggressively Democrats try to shame them. At least not yet. The immigration grand bargain that won Senate approval Thursday on a 68-32 vote will have to stay idling by the curb until House Republicans conclude it's politically safe to move forward. Right now, Republicans say they face nothing but reprisal from their home districts if they vote for anything that includes a path to citizenship for unauthorized immigrants. "The Right

hates this," said one GOP aide. Getting from Point A, Senate passage of a major immigration overhaul, to Point B, House approval of a bill whose

next destination is a White House signing ceremony, is a challenge that has stymied proponents of reform all year. In the beginning, they were

hoping that House Speaker John Boehner would be willing to allow a bill to pass with more Democratic votes than Republican votes. That opportunity, if it ever existed, has disappeared. Rank-and-file Republicans have repeatedly extracted assurances from the speaker that he won't flout the GOP majority's views on immigration. Boehner this week reiterated his promise that any immigration legislation emerging from the House would have support from a majority of Republicans. The Senate's comprehensive immigration bill is exactly the kind of grand compromise that rank-and-file House Republicans are assiduously avoiding. They see Republican senators giving away a path to citizenship, desperately sought by Democrats, in exchange for promises of tougher enforcement—a bad deal, in their eyes. "Oh, they hate it, my constituents," said Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah.

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CIR Fails Immigration reform fails – too costly Griswold, Director of CATO institute’s Center for Trade Policy Studies, 2007,(Daniel; “The Fiscal Impact of Immigration Reform: The Real Story”; 5/21/2007; http://www.cato.org/publications/free-trade-bulletin/fiscal-impact-immigration-reform-real-story) Austin Bae

One frequently heard criticism of Comprehensive Immigration Reform is that it will prove too costly to taxpayers. The mostly low-skilled

workers who would be admitted and legalized under the leading reform plan now being considered by the U.S. Congress would

typically pay fewer taxes than native-born Americans and presumably consume more means tested welfare services. Critics of reform argue that legalizing several million undocumented workers and allowing hundreds of thousands of

new workers to enter legally each year will ultimately cost American taxpayers billions of dollars. One recent study from

the Heritage Foundation, for example, claims that each “low-skilled household” (one headed by a high-school dropout) costs federal taxpayers $22,000 a year. Spread out over 50 years of expected work, the lifetime cost of such a family balloons to $1.1 million. If

immigration reform increases the number of such households in the United States, it will allegedly cost U.S. taxpayers several billion dollars a year. It is certainly true that low-skilled workers do, on average, consume more in government services than they pay in taxes, especially at

the state and local levels. But some of the estimates of that cost have been grossly exaggerated. Moreover, the value of an immigrant to American society should not be judged solely on his or her fiscal impact.

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Turn – Economy Turn – immigration reform tanks wages hurts the economy McCann, Capital Equipment Financing Company President, 2013, (Steve, Projects focused in Third World Countries, "The Victims of Immigration Reform", American Thinker, 6-27, Christian Lisik) www.americanthinker.com/2013/06/the_victims_of_immigration_reform.html

Assuming there are 15 million illegal immigrants in the country and 80% (12 million) would be a net of of working age and that 20% of that group are currently counted in the BLS statistics, therefore, 9.6 million more people would be added to the published working age population -- if the current legislation is signed into law. The overall current working age population of 245.4 million would therefore increase to 255.0 potential job seekers available for 143.9 million jobs. (a shortfall of 111.1 million). Per the current method of calculating the unemployment rate the current published rate of 7.6% would immediately increase to 9.1%. Another factor is average weekly earnings of those employed. In May of 2006 the average weekly wage was $650.56 (inflation adjusted) versus $676.36 today, or an average real gain of less than 0.5% per year. This stagnation occurred for two reasons: 1) the composition of the job market and 2) the increased competition for jobs engendered by the growth in the working age population. Since May of 2006, this nation has lost 4.4 million jobs in the high paying goods producing sector. Meanwhile an additional 3.1 million jobs were created in the low paying sectors of the health care and leisure and hospitality industry. Since 2006, the working age population has increased by17 million while there has been a net decrease of 100 thousand jobs -- a prime factor in the stagnate weekly earning as supply has outstripped demand for employees. If the working age population were increased by another 10+ million due to the immediate legalization of undocumented immigrants, the pressure on wages would increase dramatically, potentially lowering the weekly earnings by as much as 2-3% per year. The long term ramifications are considerably worse as the current proposed legislation would open the flood gates to massive new chain immigration and a still unsecured border allowing (per the Congressional Budget Office) up to 75% of the current level of illegal immigration to continue unabated far into the future. Some estimates have put this combination of factors would result in nearly 40 million new immigrants over the next twenty plus years. To make matters worse, this administration is determined to undermine any significant economic growth by announcing new restrictions of energy use and production. This combined with excessive taxation, regulations and mandates further exacerbates the inability of American companies to be competitive and create jobs in the United States -- just as the labor force will grow by leaps and bounds.

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http://www.americanthinker.com/2013/06/the_victims_of_immigration_reform.html


Turn – LA Relations Turn – immigration reform hurts U.S.-Mexico relations – border security measures Latin Times, leading Latin American News Source, 6-26 2013 ("Immigration Reform 2013: Mexico Objects To Proposed 'Border Surge' Amendment" Latin American times, CTL http://m.latintimes.com/articles/5689/20130626/immigration-reform-2013-mexico-border-surge-bridges.htm)

Mexican Foreign Relations Secretary José Meade denounced border security measures made to the comprehensive immigration reform bill is expected to be approved by the United States Senate on Tuesday, suggesting that instead of expanding a border fence, as the bill proposes, the United States should modernize border bridges to expedite commerce. "Fences do not unite , " Meade said in a written statement read before reporters. " Fences are not the solution to migration and are not consistent with a modern and secure borde r . They do not contribute to the competitive regional development that both countries seek to promote."

Relations are key to solve a laundry list Shifter, President of Inter-American Dialogue and professor of Latin American studies, 2012, (Michael, “Remaking the Relationship the United States and Latin America”, Inter-American Dialogue, April, Pg. 3-4, Christian Lisik) http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf)

There are compelling reasons for the United States and Latin America to pursue more robust ties. Every country in the Americas would benefit from strengthened and expanded economic relations, with improved access to each other’s markets, investment capital, and energy resources. Even with its current economic problems, the United States’ $16-trillion economy is a vital market and source of capital (including remittances) and technology for Latin America, and it could contribute more to the region’s economic performance. For its part, Latin America’s rising economies will inevitably become more and more crucial to the United States’ economic future. The United States and many nations of Latin America and the Caribbean would also gain a great deal by more cooperation on such global matters as climate change, nuclear non-proliferation, and democracy and human rights. With a rapidly expanding US Hispanic population of more than 50 million, the cultural and demographic integration of the United States and Latin America is proceeding at an accelerating pace, setting a firmer basis for hemispheric partnership. Despite the multiple opportunities and potential benefits, relations between the United States and Latin America remain disappointing. If new opportunities are not seized, relations will likely continue to drift apart. The longer the current situation persists, the harder it will be to reverse course and rebuild vigorous cooperation . Hemispheric affairs require urgent attention—both from the United States and from Latin America and the Caribbean.

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http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/L/LT_MEXICO_US_IMMIGRATION?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

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