Polling

Public Opinion v. political culture

Unbiased

Random Sample

Stratified Sample

Sampling Error/Margin of Error

Distribution of public opinion

• Skewed

• Bimodal

• Normal

• Stability of public opinion

• Ideology - Liberal, Conservative, Populism, Libertarianism, Communitarianism

Sources of Ideology

• Political socialization• -Primacy principle• -Structuring principle• Parents, school

• Personal characteristics used to predict political views

• (education, income, region, race, religion, gender)

Political information

• Predictors of political knowledge (on average)

-Gender, race, wealth and age

Most important problem (Gallup, Sept. 2009)

Economy in general 29%

Health care 26% (6% in 2008)

Unemployment 15%

Dissatisfaction with

Government 10%

Federal Budget Deficit 9%

Iraq War 8% (18% in 2008)

Voter turnout

Percentage of eligible voters who showed up to vote in presidential

elections

2012: 57.5%

2008: 62.3%

2004: 60.4%

2000: 54.2%

In 1960 it was 65%

Voting in “off year” elections

• 2000-2010: between 37% and 43% of eligible voters turned out.

• In 1960 the percentage was about 50%.

• So some decline since 1960.

Costs and benefits of voting

• Registering to vote

• Benefits: no longer material– May influence the outcome (unlikely)– Psychic benefits (intangible rewards)

Who votes? Who doesn’t?

• Age

• Wealth

• Education

• Race

• Status of your party in the district/state

Declining turnout: why?

• Turnout, while rising in recent years, was higher in the 1960s than it is today

• WHY?• Lower personal benefits• Decreased mobilization efforts by parties,

campaigns and social movements• Americans less “socially connected” than they

used to be

Other forms of participation, besides voting

• Donate money to campaigns• Volunteer for a campaign• Attend a political rally• Contact a public official

• These forms of participation are skewed by age and income. Older and richer more likely to participate when it comes to donating money, writing a letter to a public official, but younger citizens more likely to attend a rally/demonstration or sign a petition