POLS 373 Foundations of Comparative Politics Week 4, October 17, 2006 Strategies of Comparative Analysis (con’t) The Mixed Design Banality of Ethnic War

POLS 373 Foundations of Comparative PoliticsPOLS 373 Foundations of Comparative Politics

Week 4, October 17, 2006Strategies of Comparative Analysis (con’t)

The Mixed DesignBanality of Ethnic War

Week 4, October 17, 2006Strategies of Comparative Analysis (con’t)

The Mixed DesignBanality of Ethnic War

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Strategies of Comparative AnalysisStrategies of Comparative Analysis

• The Mixed Design Involves a combination of several research design and

strategies--a mixture--used simultaneously within the context of single research project

In principle, this is really the best type of comparative research strategy to adopt

• The Mixed Design Involves a combination of several research design and

strategies--a mixture--used simultaneously within the context of single research project

In principle, this is really the best type of comparative research strategy to adopt

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• The Mixed Design: Example from Skocpol

No. 1: “France, Russia and China will serve as three positive cases of successful social revolution, and I shall argue that these cases reveal similar causal patterns despite their many other differences.”

This is an example of ______________________?


No. 1: “France, Russia and China will serve as three positive cases of successful social revolution, and I shall argue that these cases reveal similar causal patterns despite their many other differences.”


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No. 2: “In addition, I shall invoke negative cases for the purpose of validating various particular parts of the causal argument…. Thus, for example, the abortive Russian Revolution of 1905 will be contrasted with the successful Revolution of 1917 in order to validate arguments about the crucial contribution to social-revolutionary success in Russia of war-related processes that led to the breakdown of state repressive capacities.”



No. 2: “In addition, I shall invoke negative cases for the purpose of validating various particular parts of the causal argument…. Thus, for example, the abortive Russian Revolution of 1905 will be contrasted with the successful Revolution of 1917 in order to validate arguments about the crucial contribution to social-revolutionary success in Russia of war-related processes that led to the breakdown of state repressive capacities.”


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No. 3: “Moreover, selected aspects of English, Japanese, and German history will be used in various places to strengthen arguments about the causes of revolutionary political crises and peasant revolts in France, Russia, and China. These cases are suitable as contrasts because they were comparable countries that underwent non-revolutionary political crises and transformations in broadly similar terms and circumstances to France, Russia, and China.”



No. 3: “Moreover, selected aspects of English, Japanese, and German history will be used in various places to strengthen arguments about the causes of revolutionary political crises and peasant revolts in France, Russia, and China. These cases are suitable as contrasts because they were comparable countries that underwent non-revolutionary political crises and transformations in broadly similar terms and circumstances to France, Russia, and China.”


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Summary of Skocpol’s Mixed Design1. MDS design using three primary cases2. MSS design and within-case comparison using

Russia3. MDS, Multiple unit comparison (three or more

units) using secondary cases: England, Japan, and Germany

4. (Implicit strategy) Individual case studies using analytical induction


Summary of Skocpol’s Mixed Design1. MDS design using three primary cases2. MSS design and within-case comparison using

Russia3. MDS, Multiple unit comparison (three or more

units) using secondary cases: England, Japan, and Germany

4. (Implicit strategy) Individual case studies using analytical induction

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• The Mixed Design: A Methodological Exercise

Gun violence is a complicated issue, but one for which a mixed research design would be very appropriate.

So, how might we go about setting up a mixed research design?


Gun violence is a complicated issue, but one for which a mixed research design would be very appropriate.

So, how might we go about setting up a mixed research design?

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What do we need to do first? Short answer: Research, and lots of it.


What do we need to do first? Short answer: Research, and lots of it.

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Strategies of Comparative AnalysisStrategies of Comparative AnalysisCountry Year Firearm Homicide Total Homicide % Households With Guns

Estonia 1994 8.07 28.21 n/a

Hungary 1994 0.23 3.53 n/a

Slovenia 1994 0.35 2.01 n/a

Finland 1994 0.86 3.24 23.2

Brazil 1993 10.58 19.04 n/a

Denmark 1993 0.23 1.21 n/a

Austria 1994 0.42 1.17 n/a

Switzerland 1994 0.58 1.32 27.2

France 1994 0.44 1.12 22.6

Mexico 1994 9.88 17.58 n/a

Belgium 1990 0.6 1.41 16.6

Portugal 1994 1.28 2.98 n/a

United States 1993 3.72 5.7 39

Japan 1994 0.02 0.62 n/a

Sweden 1993 0.18 1.3 15.1

Germany 1994 0.22 1.17 8.9

Taiwan 1996 0.97 8.12 n/a

Singapore 1994 0.07 1.71 n/a

Canada 1992 0.76 2.16 29.1

Mauritius 1993 0 2.35 n/a

Argentina 1994 2.11 4.51 n/a

Norway 1993 0.3 0.97 32

N. I reland 1994 5.24 6.09 8.4

Australia 1994 0.44 1.86 19.4

Statistics on Statistics on homicide homicide rates and rates and gun gun ownership in ownership in 24 countries 24 countries (various (various years)years)

What cases What cases should we should we compare?compare?

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Statistics on Statistics on homicide homicide rates in rates in selected selected cities cities (Source: (Source: Home Office, Home Office, United United Kingdom)Kingdom)

What cases What cases should we should we compare?compare?

Comparison of homicide in selected cities (2000, except were indicated)

City # of Homicides Homicide Rate Lefkosia, Cyprus 0 0.00 Athens, Greece 17 0.53 Edinburgh, Scotland 5 1.10 Oslo, Norway 6 1.18 Tokyo, Japan 151 1.24 Berlin, Germany 76 2.20 London, England 189 2.59 Prague, Czech Republic 49 3.30 Paris, France 88 4.10 Belfast, N. Ireland 21 7.3 New Yo rk, USA 673 8.69 Tallinn, Estonia 39 9.73 Vilnius, Lithuania 59 10.20 Moscow, Russia (1999) 1,206 18.85 Washington, DC USA 232 41.78 Pretoria, South Africa (1997) 527 43.00 Note: in 1996, the homicide rate in Washington, D.C. was 73.11. This was the highest recorded rate of all major cities between the period 1996 and 2000. http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs2/hosb502.pdf

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Statistics on Statistics on homicide homicide rate in the rate in the United United States, 1900-States, 1900-2002 2002 (Source: (Source: Bureau of Bureau of Justice)Justice)

What do What do these these statistics tell statistics tell us? us?

http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/homtrnd.htm

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Statistics on Statistics on homicides in homicides in the U.S. the U.S. (Source: (Source: Bureau of Bureau of Justice)Justice)

What do What do these these statistics tell statistics tell us? us?

http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/homtrnd.htm

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• More Practice: Stupid in America?• More Practice: Stupid in America?

Source: http://abcnews.go.com/2020/Stossel/story?id=1500338Source: http://abcnews.go.com/2020/Stossel/story?id=1500338

•Consider the following questions:Consider the following questions:

• What is the reporter’s central thesis? What is the reporter’s central thesis?

• How does he use comparisons?How does he use comparisons?

• Is the argument persuasive? Is the argument persuasive?

• As a comparativist, what would As a comparativist, what would youyou do to do to evaluate the argument?evaluate the argument?

http://abcnews.go.com/2020/Stossel/story?id=1500338

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• More Practice: Stupid in America? Key Points

– “American schools don't teach as well as schools in other countries because they are government monopolies, and monopolies don't have much incentive to compete”

– “In Belgium, by contrast, the money is attached to the kids it's a kind of voucher system. Government funds education at many different kinds of schools but if a school can't attract students, it goes out of business.”

• More Practice: Stupid in America? Key Points

– “American schools don't teach as well as schools in other countries because they are government monopolies, and monopolies don't have much incentive to compete”

– “In Belgium, by contrast, the money is attached to the kids it's a kind of voucher system. Government funds education at many different kinds of schools but if a school can't attract students, it goes out of business.”

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• DISCUSSION OF “BANALITY OF ETHNIC WAR” BY MUELLER

• Let’s begin with some questions …

• DISCUSSION OF “BANALITY OF ETHNIC WAR” BY MUELLER

• Let’s begin with some questions …

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Banality of Ethnic War | DiscussionBanality of Ethnic War | Discussion

• Q: What is Mueller’s central argument? • Q: What is Mueller’s central argument?

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• Mueller’s Position:See reading or in-class notes

• Mueller’s Position:See reading or in-class notes

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Questions:

• How does Mueller go about supporting the argument that he makes?

• What type of comparative research design does he use?

Questions:

• How does Mueller go about supporting the argument that he makes?

• What type of comparative research design does he use?

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Mueller’s Comparative Strategy? Is it … Case study in comparative perspective Binary analysis Multi-unit (3+) analysis Within-case comparison Analytical induction Mixed design

Mueller’s Comparative Strategy? Is it … Case study in comparative perspective Binary analysis Multi-unit (3+) analysis Within-case comparison Analytical induction Mixed design

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• Although there might be some debate on Mueller’s comparative strategy, it is fairly clear that he is primarily using …

• The case study in comparative perspective

• Although there might be some debate on Mueller’s comparative strategy, it is fairly clear that he is primarily using …

• The case study in comparative perspective

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• What makes his strategy a case study in comparative perspective?

• Mueller’s main focus is the violence that took place in the former Yugoslavia; he uses Rwanda (1994) as an explicit secondary case

• What makes his strategy a case study in comparative perspective?

• Mueller’s main focus is the violence that took place in the former Yugoslavia; he uses Rwanda (1994) as an explicit secondary case

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• Does Mueller follow the two “rules” of the case study in comparative perspective?

• To refresh your memory, these are:– (1) to see case in relation to others; and

– (2) to aim at generalization


• To refresh your memory, these are:– (1) to see case in relation to others; and

– (2) to aim at generalization

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The answer is clearly “yes” on both counts Mueller use of Rwanda demonstrates his clear intention

to see Yugoslavia in relation to others; moreover, he points out that his reason for using Rwanda is to “explore the possibilities for generalizing from the Yugoslav experience …”.


The answer is clearly “yes” on both counts Mueller use of Rwanda demonstrates his clear intention

to see Yugoslavia in relation to others; moreover, he points out that his reason for using Rwanda is to “explore the possibilities for generalizing from the Yugoslav experience …”.

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• Next important methodological question:

What basic logic underlies his comparison of Yugoslavia and Rwanda?

That is, is the author’s comparison based on an MSS or and MDS design?

• Next important methodological question:

What basic logic underlies his comparison of Yugoslavia and Rwanda?

That is, is the author’s comparison based on an MSS or and MDS design?

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• It is fairly easy to discern that Mueller is using an MDS design.

• Specifically, Mueller assumes that Yugoslavia and Rwanda are two very different places: different cultures; different political systems; different history of ethnic relations; different geopolitical position; and so on. At the same time, Mueller tells us that there are two key similarities.

• It is fairly easy to discern that Mueller is using an MDS design.

• Specifically, Mueller assumes that Yugoslavia and Rwanda are two very different places: different cultures; different political systems; different history of ethnic relations; different geopolitical position; and so on. At the same time, Mueller tells us that there are two key similarities.

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• What are the similarities?

• Independent Variable: The existence of vicious, opportunistic, but substantially non-ideological criminals and criminal-like elements

• Dependent variable:An extremely brutal outbreak of societal wide violence

• What are the similarities?

• Independent Variable: The existence of vicious, opportunistic, but substantially non-ideological criminals and criminal-like elements

• Dependent variable:An extremely brutal outbreak of societal wide violence

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• What conclusions, methodologically speaking, can we draw from Mueller’s argument?

• Conclusion #1: See in-class notes

• What conclusions, methodologically speaking, can we draw from Mueller’s argument?


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• How about the quality, sufficiency, and relevance of the evidence Mueller uses?

Almost all of Mueller’s evidence is based on secondary sources, and mostly other academic or scholarly articles. Mueller also used some newspaper accounts and a UN-prepared report (which may have been based on some primary source material)

• Are they any problems with relying almost exclusively on secondary sources?

• How about the quality, sufficiency, and relevance of the evidence Mueller uses?

Almost all of Mueller’s evidence is based on secondary sources, and mostly other academic or scholarly articles. Mueller also used some newspaper accounts and a UN-prepared report (which may have been based on some primary source material)

• Are they any problems with relying almost exclusively on secondary sources?

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• What conclusions, empirically speaking, can we draw from Mueller’s argument?


• What conclusions, empirically speaking, can we draw from Mueller’s argument?


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• From a theoretical view, Mueller does not discount “ethnicity” completely, but he argues that it served as an ordering device as opposed to causal factor in and of itself.

• What does this mean? What is an “ordering device”?

• From a theoretical view, Mueller does not discount “ethnicity” completely, but he argues that it served as an ordering device as opposed to causal factor in and of itself.

• What does this mean? What is an “ordering device”?

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• Key point about ordering devices: Mueller suggests that, were there not ethnic differences in either case, those who encouraged the conflict would have (and did, to a limited extent) simply used another available ordering device.

• This could have been class (i.e., pitting the poor against the rich); loyalty to a particular soccer team (as happened in Rwanda); regional ties; political affiliation; and so on.

• Key point about ordering devices: Mueller suggests that, were there not ethnic differences in either case, those who encouraged the conflict would have (and did, to a limited extent) simply used another available ordering device.

• This could have been class (i.e., pitting the poor against the rich); loyalty to a particular soccer team (as happened in Rwanda); regional ties; political affiliation; and so on.

Documents

POLS 373 Foundations of Comparative Politics Week 4, October 17, 2006 Strategies of Comparative Analysis (con’t) The Mixed Design Banality of Ethnic War