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Page 1: Polycab IndiaSeptember 13, 2019 - ICICI Directcontent.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Polycab_StockTales_Sep1… · manufacturing and selling wires & cables (revenue contribution

Stock Tales are concise, holistic stock reports across wider spectrum of sectors. Updates will not be periodical but based on significant events or change in price.

Stock_____

TALES

Page 2: Polycab IndiaSeptember 13, 2019 - ICICI Directcontent.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Polycab_StockTales_Sep1… · manufacturing and selling wires & cables (revenue contribution

ICIC

I S

ecurit

ies –

Retail E

quit

y R

esearch

Stock T

ale

s

September 13, 2019

CMP: | 628 Target: | 670 (7%) Target Period: 12 months

Polycab India (POLI)

HOLD

Profitable FMEG holds key…

Incorporated in 1996, Polycab India (PIL) is India’s largest cable & wire (C&W)

company with an organised market share of ~18%. Promoted by the

Jaisinghani brothers, PIL earns ~88% of its total topline from the C&W

segment while other two segments fast moving electrical goods (FMEG) and

engineering, procurement, construction (EPC) contributes 8% and 4% to

topline, respectively. PIL’s diversified business in FMEG in FY14 was mainly

due to 1) reduced dependency from W&C category, 2) increased presence

in B2C category (fans, switchgear, LED lightings & fixtures and 3) leveraging

strong dealer base to push FMEG products into channels. PIL has developed

a strong distribution network of ~3100 dealers and distributors across India.

These dealers, distributors serve more than 100,000 retail outlets. PIL posted

revenue, earnings CAGR of ~15%, ~39%, respectively, in FY16-19 led by

higher EBITDA margin. We believe organic growth in core business coupled

with lower interest outgo (owing to loan repayment through proceeds from

fresh issue) would drive profitability of the business, going forward. We like

PIL for its market leadership position in C&W category with strong growth in

its FMEG business, going forward. Higher profitability coupled with a lighter

balance sheet would improve the return ratios RoCE, RoE to 22%, 15%,

respectively. In light of this, we ascribe 15x FY21E earnings with a HOLD

rating on the stock and a target price of | 670share.

Leveraging existing distributors to boost FMEG segment

The FMEG products of Polycab largely include switchgears, fans, lightings &

luminaires and solar pumps. The company entered the FMEG segment in

FY14. In the last four years, it has achieved a turnover of ~| 645 crore.

Leveraging the ‘Polycab’ brand, PIL’s FMEG segment is likely to record

revenue CAGR of 25% in FY19-21E on a low base and strong distribution

channel (~3100 dealers) across India’s diverse customer base.

Focus on reducing working capital requirement

To reduce debtor days, it has increased use of channel financing. Channel

financing not only reduces risk of non-payment but also significantly

reduces working capital requirement. A reduction in working capital

requirement through channel financing would boost the quality of the

balance sheet and lower interest outgo, thus aiding earnings growth.

Valuation and outlook

We like PIL for its normalised revenue, earnings growth with stable margin.

However, future demand of C&W coupled with profitable growth in the

FMEG segment would be key monitorables and re-rating factor for PIL, going

forward. We assign 15xFY21E earning with a HOLD rating and a target price

of | 670/share.

Key Financial Summary

ssf

(| crore) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E CAGR19-21E

Net Sales 5202.4 5500.1 6770.3 7956.0 8935.1 10028.7 12.3

EBITDA 490.8 479.9 728.9 923.2 929.3 1093.1 8.8

EBITDA Margin (%) 9.4 8.7 10.8 11.6 10.4 10.9

Net Profit 184.7 233.0 358.6 500.3 534.7 641.3 13.2

EPS (|) 13.1 16.5 25.4 35.4 37.9 43.1

P/E (x) 48.0 38.1 24.7 17.7 16.6 14.6

RoE (%) 10.4 11.7 15.3 17.6 14.1 14.5

RoCE (%) 15.8 14.7 20.9 28.3 21.7 22.0

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Particulars

Particular Ammount

Market cap (| crore) 8670.0

Total Debt (| crore) 192.0

Cash & Inves (| crore) 317.6

EV (| crore) 8544.5

52 Week H/L 677/525

Equity Capital (| crore) 141.2

Face Value(|) 10.0

Price Performance

10,000

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

12,500

0

200

400

600

800

Apr-19

May-19

May-19

Jun-19

Jul-19

Jul-19

Aug-19

Polycab (LHS) NSE (RHS)

Research Analyst

Sanjay Manyal

[email protected]

Hitesh Taunk

[email protected]

Page 3: Polycab IndiaSeptember 13, 2019 - ICICI Directcontent.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Polycab_StockTales_Sep1… · manufacturing and selling wires & cables (revenue contribution

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 2

ICICI Direct Research

Stock Tales | Polycab India

Company Background

Incorporated in 1996, Polycab India (PIL) is engaged in the business of

manufacturing and selling wires & cables (revenue contribution of ~88%)

and fast moving electrical goods (FMEG) under the “Polycab” brand

(revenue contribution of 8%). With a value market share of ~18% in the

organised industry, PIL is one of the largest manufacturers in the wires and

cables industry in India. Apart from wires and cables, the company entered

the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) business in 2009

(revenue contribution of ~4%), which includes design, engineering, supply,

execution and commissioning of power distribution and rural electrification

projects. As a part of diversification and to leverage the strong ‘Polycab’

brand, PIL entered the FMEG product category in 2014. The FMEG product

includes electric fans, LED lighting & luminaires, switches & switchgears,

solar products and conduits & accessories. PIL has 24 manufacturing

facilities in India of which four are dedicated to FMEG product categories.

Over the years, PIL has developed a strong distribution network of dealers

and distributors across India with a total count of ~3100 at the end of FY19.

These dealers and distributors serve more than 100,000 retail outlets. The

company’s products are largely used in industries like power, oil & gas,

construction, IT parks, infrastructure, metal and cement industries. PIL’s

customer base is well diversified while none of the customers contributes

more than 5% to its topline, reducing dependency on any single customer.

PIL has increased its focus towards the FMEG segment where revenue

contribution has increased from 3% in FY16 to 8% in FY19. The segment

recorded strong sales growth of 48% in FY16-19 and turned profitable in

FY17 albeit a low margin. The cable & wire segment recorded a sales CAGR

of 10% (~13% adjusted to excise) with segment profitability improving from

~5% in FY16 to ~11% in FY19. The company recorded consolidated

revenue, earning CAGR of 15% and 39%, respectively, in FY16-19.

Exhibit 1: Revenue breakup in FY16

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 2: Revenue breakup in FY19

Wires &

cables

88%

FMEG

8%

EPC

4%

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Wires &

cables

92%

FMEG

3%

EPC

5%

Page 4: Polycab IndiaSeptember 13, 2019 - ICICI Directcontent.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Polycab_StockTales_Sep1… · manufacturing and selling wires & cables (revenue contribution

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 3

ICICI Direct Research

Stock Tales | Polycab India

Investment Rationale

Various government initiatives to drive cable & wire demand

The Indian cables & wires industry recorded a value CAGR of ~12% in the

last five years to reach | 58500 crore in FY19E. The growth came on the back

of factors like electrification of rural villages and households (Power for All);

investments in transmission and distribution systems for modernisation and

increasing efficiencies; increased demand from renewable power

generation, particularly solar and wind energy; infrastructure development

initiatives taken by the Government of India like Smart Cities Mission and

mass transit systems; and improved lifestyle and consumer spending. The

domestic wire & cable industry is further likely to grow at a CAGR of 11% in

next five years. The demand for building wires and power cables is expected

to be spurred by government schemes such as Pradhan Mantri Sahaj Bijli

Har Ghar Yojana (‘Saubhagya’ scheme) and Power for All, focusing on

electrification of rural households and T&D efficiencies, as well as an

increase in cabling demand from commercial establishments and public

utilities. Growth in renewable energy capacities is expected to drive demand

for solar cables and elastomeric cables used in windmill applications.

The Indian cables & wires industry is gradually moving from a largely

unorganised sector comprising smaller regional players towards an

organised sector comprising pan-India branded market players across

categories. The share of the organised sector has increased from 61% to

66% in the last five years. According to estimates, the share of organised

players is likely to increase to ~74% by FY23E on account of GST

implementation and improvement in efficiency and cost structure, thereby

reducing the price gap between the organised, unorganised sectors and the

economies of the pan-India distribution network.

Exhibit 3: Domestic cable & wire industry growth trend

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E

Industry (| crore)

CAGR 12%

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Increase in organised pie to benefit Polycab in long term

We believe PIL being a market leader (18% value market share in the

organised cable & wire industry) would be a direct beneficiary of the shift in

demand from the unorganised to organised category. This, coupled with

government initiatives in power and infrastructure like increased

infrastructure expenditure, growth in fire survival cables supported by

metro, airport and commercial real estate projects and Smart Cities

Missions’ investment in underground cables are likely to boost demand for

the cable & wire industry, going forward. The company plans to strengthen

its leadership position in the wires & cables market in India by increasing the

share of business with existing customers, winning new customer contracts,

geographical expansion and development of innovative and customised

products.

Page 5: Polycab IndiaSeptember 13, 2019 - ICICI Directcontent.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Polycab_StockTales_Sep1… · manufacturing and selling wires & cables (revenue contribution

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 4

ICICI Direct Research

Stock Tales | Polycab India

Exhibit 4: Share of organised and unorganised pie in FY15

Organised, 61%

Unorganised, 39%

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 5: Organised pie rises in last four years by 500 bps

Organised, 66%

Unorganised, 34%

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 6: C&B revenue to grow at 11% CAGR in FY19-21E

4825.7

5125.4

6131.3

6991.8

7770.7

8625.5

0.0

1000.0

2000.0

3000.0

4000.0

5000.0

6000.0

7000.0

8000.0

9000.0

10000.0

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

(| crore)

CAGR 11%

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 7: Market leader in C&W category

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research, Chart contains revenue from only C&B segment

Leveraging existing distributors to boost FMEG segment

The FMEG products of Polycab largely include switchgears, fans, lightings &

luminaires and solar pumps. The company entered the FMEG segment

during FY14. In the last four years, it has achieved a turnover of ~| 500 crore.

This was largely due to the company’s strong pan India reach with over 3100

dealers. PIL is planning a similar topline growth in the next two years by

leveraging its strong brand, distribution network, diverse customer base and

manufacturing capabilities. The company aims to grow its market share in

existing FMEG product segments with a focus on expanding distribution

reach, increasing rural penetration and greater retail expansion. PIL is also

undertaking a detailed market mapping to identify and appoint new channels

for geographical expansion.

7064

3501

2983

3235

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Polycab KEI Industries Finolex cables Havells India

(| c

rore)

Page 6: Polycab IndiaSeptember 13, 2019 - ICICI Directcontent.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Polycab_StockTales_Sep1… · manufacturing and selling wires & cables (revenue contribution

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 5

ICICI Direct Research

Stock Tales | Polycab India

In order to cater to the changing needs of customers, the company plans to

strengthen its FMEG product portfolio and enter new product segments by

way of continuous product development and innovation. Under the new

product category, PIL is planning to enter the high margin product category

such as street lighting and other specialised products like domestic and

agriculture pumps, domestic air purifiers and domestic water purifiers. The

segment turned profitable in FY17 but margins remain low compared to

other established players.

Exhibit 8: Number of dealers and distributors by product

Company No of dealers

Polycab 3133

KEI Industries 1450

Finolex Cables 3500f

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 9: Low base coupled with dealer addition to drive FMEG sales growth

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 10: Higher advertisement expenditure to increase market share

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

According to an estimate by Crisil, (i) the switches industry in India is

expected to grow at ~9% CAGR to | 6200 crore by FY23, driven by modular

switches that have higher realisations, (ii) the lighting and luminaire industry

in India is expected to grow at a CAGR of ~7% to reach an estimated market

size of | 30100 crore by FY23 largely due to a decline in LED chip prices,

government policies to encourage LEDs and increasing consumer

awareness for energy efficient technologies such as LED lighting and (iii) the

electric fans industry in India is expected to grow at a CAGR of ~7% to

| 11100 crore by FY23 largely due to government initiatives, the introduction

of value added products by major fan manufacturers, replacement demand

in urban areas, rise in rural penetration and improving economic factors.

171.0

307.5

475.0

639.3

804.1

1005.1

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

(|

crore)

CAGR ~25%

Page 7: Polycab IndiaSeptember 13, 2019 - ICICI Directcontent.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Polycab_StockTales_Sep1… · manufacturing and selling wires & cables (revenue contribution

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 6

ICICI Direct Research

Stock Tales | Polycab India

EPC business to grow at steady rate

Under the EPC division, PIL provides electrical turnkey solutions comprising

project management, onsite execution and resource management through

specialised erectors and financial management. The solutions are largely

provided for the transmission and distribution sectors involving projects in

extra high voltage and high voltage levels for various government utilities in

India. These projects typically require a large supply of cables, wires and

conductors. PIL supplies these components. Hence, the EPC business is

largely an extension of PIL’s product business.

PIL has completed a range of projects including refinery works, rural and

urban electrification and extra high voltage cable laying since 2009 when it

entered the business. Some of the key projects it has completed include the

110 kV extra high voltage cable laying in Kerala, electrification works for

BPCL Kochi refinery, urban electrification of Nerul division in Navi Mumbai,

Maharashtra, conversion of overhead infrastructure into underground

cables in Azamgarh, Mau and Bahraich and rural electrification works in the

town of Vaishali. We believe the EPC business would grow in line with the

company’s C&B business.

Exhibit 11: EPC business to grow in line with Polycab’s C&B business

255.4

141.1

238.8

459.7

510.1 566.2

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

(| crore)

CAGR 11%

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Manufacturing facilities with high degree of backward integration

Currently, PIL is operating 24 manufacturing facilities. Four of these 24

manufacturing facilities are for production of FMEG, including a joint venture

with Techno to manufacture LED products. Its focus is on backward

integration, where it produces a substantial portion of raw materials and

sources remaining from third-party suppliers. In 2016, PIL entered into a

50:50 joint venture with Trafigura to set up the Ryker Plant that will, once

fully operational, fulfil a substantial part of its demand for copper wire rods.

Apart from the Ryker Plant, it also produces other key raw materials that are

used in manufacturing wires & cables, FMEGs. These key raw materials

include aluminium rods (for aluminium conductor), higher size of copper

rods (for required size of copper conductors to manufacture cables, wires),

various grades of PVC, rubber, XLPE compounds, GI wire, strip (for

armouring). Producing own raw materials reduces reliance, risks of

procuring raw materials from domestic, international markets by ensuring a

consistent and reliable supply of quality raw materials. Such backward

integration also helps PIL maintain control of the supply chain, with lower

costs of operations enabling it to sell products at competitive prices.

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ICICI Securities | Retail Research 7

ICICI Direct Research

Stock Tales | Polycab India

Focus on reducing working capital requirement through

channel financing

The nature of the business requires significant working capital (~90 days of

net working capital cycle) mainly due to procurement of raw material and

higher receivable days. However, the company’s limit exposure in the EPC

segment (EPC business typically has slower payment from customers and,

therefore, higher working capital requirements) and significant portion of the

business through its dealer network restricts any aberration in working

capital days. Further, to reduce its debtor days, it has increased the use of

channel financing, whereby customers enter into arrangements with banks

through which PIL receive payment directly from the banks, who, in turn,

takes on credit risk and seeks to collect from customers. Channel financing

not only reduces risk of non-payment but also significantly increases

payments cycle. We believe a reduction in working capital requirement

through channel financing would boost the quality of balance sheet and

lowering interest outgo, thus aiding earnings growth, going forward.

Exhibit 12: Channel financing to help reduce working capital requirement, going

forward

97

83

74

67

60 60

69

101

74

92 92

85

74

90

50

70

60 58

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Debtor Days Inventory Days Payable Days

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

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ICICI Securities | Retail Research 8

ICICI Direct Research

Stock Tales | Polycab India

Key risks and concerns

Higher exposure in cable & wire segment poses business

concentration risk

The cable & wire business of the company contributes ~88% to the topline

As a result, the business and financial condition is heavily dependent on the

performance of the wires and cables market in India. The company is

exposed to fluctuations in the performance of these markets. In the event of

a decline in demand for wires and cables in India or abroad, the company is

expected to experience pronounced effects on business, results of

operations, financial condition, cash flows and prospects. The cable & wire

market may be impacted by, among others, changes in government policies,

government initiatives, economic conditions, income levels and interest

rates, which may negatively impact demand for and valuation of products.

Exchange rate fluctuation

The company largely imports its raw material such as aluminium, copper

and PVC compounds, where prices are reference to benchmarks quoted in

US dollar. Hence, expenditures are largely influenced by the value of the US

dollar. Depreciation of the rupee against the US dollar, the Euro and other

foreign currencies may adversely affect results of operations by increasing

the cost of imported raw materials.

Competitive pressure in FMEG business

The industry and markets for cable & wire and FMEG products are

characterised by factors like rapid technological change, development of

new end products and their rapid obsolescence, evolving industry standards

and significant price erosion over the life of a product. The company may

face stiff competition from large consumer durable players such as

Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals, Orient Electric and Havells India,

which may restrict growth in segment margin of FMEG segment.

Payment delay in EPC business may impact working capital

cycle

The nature of the business requires significant amounts of working capital

primarily for raw material purchases and manufacturing products before it

receive payments from its customers. Working capital requirements can also

vary significantly across business lines, with businesses like government

contracts and EPC business typically having slower payment from

customers, and, therefore, higher working capital requirement. If the

company’s EPC business grows exponentially (on a low base and aggressive

bidding on government orders) relative to other business lines, we expect

that working capital ratios to be adversely affected

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ICICI Securities | Retail Research 9

ICICI Direct Research

Stock Tales | Polycab India

Valuation and outlook

PIL is a strong brand in the C&W industry and has a history of strong revenue

earning CAGR of 15%, 39% respectively. Further, the company is likely to

record revenue earning CAGR of 12% each in FY19-21E led by continuous

growth in the FMEG segment. The C&B business of PIL likely to grow at

CAGR of ~11% supported by revival in demand vis-à-vis market share gains

from the unorganised pie. On the EBITDA margin front, we believe EBITDA

margins will remain in the range of 10-11% (in line with historical average)

with higher employee cost and advertisement expenditure that would help

increase revenue contribution of FMEG business. We believe organic

growth in core business coupled with lower interest outgo (owing to loan

repayment through proceeds from fresh issue) would drive profitability of

the business. Considering PIL’s market leadership position in the C&W

business coupled with easing balance sheet (though debt reduction), we

value the stock at 15xFY21E earnings with HOLD rating.

Exhibit 13: Revenue growth driven by FMEG

5202

5500

6770 7

956 8935

10029

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

(| crore)

CAGR 12%

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 14: EBITDA margin to remain stable

9.4

8.7

10.8

11.6

10.410.9

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

(%

)

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 15: PAT growth supported by lower interest outgo

185 2

33

359

500 535

641

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

(| crore)

CAGR 13%

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 16: Improvement in profitability of FMEG to trigger

return ratio

10.411.7

15.3

17.6

14.1 14.515.8

14.7

20.9

28.3

21.7 22.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

(%

)

RoE RoCE

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 17: Valuation matrix

FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19FY20EFY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19FY20EFY21E

Polycab 8,868 7956 8935 10029 11.6 10.4 10.9 500.3 534.7 641.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 28.3 21.7 22.0 17.6 14.1 14.5 17.7 16.6 14.6

KEI Ind 3677 4227 4976 5732 10.5 10.6 10.6 182 228 277 0.6 0.5 0.4 20.1 22 21.4 26 26 25 20.2 16.1 13.3

Finolex Ind 6399 3079 3237 3531 14.7 14.4 14.5 344 358 392 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.5 13.5 13.3 14.9 13.9 13.7 18.6 17.9 16.3

RoCE RoE PEMcap

| cr

Revenue EBITDA margin PAT D/E

Source: Company, Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research

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ICICI Securities | Retail Research 10

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Stock Tales | Polycab India

Financial Summary

Exhibit 18: Profit & Loss statement (| crore)

(Year-end March) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Revenue 6,770.3 7,956.0 8,935.1 10,028.7

Growth (%) 23.1 17.5 12.3 12.2

Raw material expense 5,205.3 5,966.0 6,737.1 7,471.4

Employee expenses 259.3 300.2 393.1 501.4

Power & Fuel cost 93.7 96.6 116.2 130.4

Packing, frieght, & forwarding charges 125.0 149.9 169.8 190.5

Other expenses 358.1 520.1 589.7 641.8

Total Operating Exp 6,041.4 7,032.8 8,005.8 8,935.6

EBITDA 728.9 923.2 929.3 1,093.1

Growth (%) 51.9 26.7 0.7 17.6

Depreciation 133.0 141.4 147.4 156.4

Interest 93.7 116.7 55.2 25.2

Other Income 64.4 93.3 71.5 60.2

PBT 566.7 758.4 798.1 971.7

Total Tax 208.2 255.8 263.4 330.4

PAT 358.6 500.3 534.7 641.3

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 19: Cashflow statement (| crore)

(Year-end March) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Profit after Tax 358.6 500.3 534.7 641.3

Add: Depreciation 133.0 141.4 147.4 156.4

(Inc)/dec in Current Assets 120.6 -739.6 -262.1 -402.9

Inc/(dec) in CL and Provisions -380.8 1236.9 -366.0 68.1

Others 93.7 116.7 55.2 25.2

CF from operating activities 324.9 1255.7 109.3 488.1

(Inc)/dec in Investments 1.3 2.2 0.0 0.0

(Inc)/dec in Fixed Assets -172.7 -277.0 -350.0 -450.0

Others 18.6 -20.7 -0.6 -0.7

CF from investing activities -152.9 -295.5 -350.6 -450.7

Issue/(Buy back) of Equity 0.0 0.0 7.4 0.0

Inc/(dec) in loan funds -93.1 -535.7 -100.0 -50.0

Dividend paid & dividend tax -17.0 0.0 -3.4 -3.6

Others -82.6 -116.7 344.9 -25.2

CF from financing activities -192.7 -652.4 248.9 -78.8

Net Cash flow -20.6 307.9 7.6 -41.3

Opening Cash 30.1 10.7 317.6 325.2

Closing Cash 10.7 317.6 325.2 283.9

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 20: Balance Sheet Statement (| crore)

(Year-end March) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Liabilities

Equity Capital 141.2 141.2 148.7 148.7

Reserve and Surplus 2,206.4 2,705.7 3,637.2 4,274.9

Total Shareholders funds 2,347.6 2,847.0 3,785.8 4,423.5

Total Debt 727.7 192.0 92.0 42.0

Other non current liabilities 77.6 57.2 57.2 57.2

Total Liabilities 3,152.9 3,096.2 3,935.0 4,522.8

Assets

Gross Block 1,567.5 1,785.9 2,135.9 2,585.9

Less: Acc Depreciation 370.4 510.3 657.7 814.2

Total Fixed Assets 1,333.1 1,468.6 1,671.2 1,964.7

Investments 31.5 29.4 29.4 29.4

Inventory 1,365.7 1,995.8 2,203.2 2,335.4

Debtors 1,378.8 1,469.4 1,468.8 1,648.5

Loans and Advances 15.3 17.8 20.0 22.5

Other CA 243.2 259.6 312.7 401.1

Cash 10.7 317.6 325.2 283.9

Total Current Assets 3,013.7 4,060.2 4,329.9 4,691.5

Creditors 922.1 1,520.2 1,591.2 1,593.6

Provisions 47.1 37.1 38.8 38.9

Other CL 326.0 974.8 536.1 601.7

Total Current Liabilities 1,295.2 2,532.1 2,166.1 2,234.2

Net current assets 1,718.5 1,528.1 2,163.8 2,457.3

Other non current assets 69.8 70.1 70.7 71.4

Total Assets 3,152.9 3,096.2 3,935.0 4,522.8

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 21: Key Ratios

(Year-end March) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Per share data (|)

EPS 25.4 35.4 37.9 43.1

Cash EPS 34.8 45.4 48.3 53.7

BV 166.3 201.6 268.1 297.6

DPS 1.2 0.0 0.2 0.2

Operating Ratios (%)

EBITDA Margin 10.8 11.6 10.4 10.9

PAT Margin 5.3 6.3 6.0 6.4

Asset Turnover 4.3 4.5 4.2 3.9

Inventory Days 73.6 91.6 90.0 85.0

Debtor Days 74.3 67.4 60.0 60.0

Creditor Days 49.7 69.7 65.0 58.0

Return Ratios (%)

RoE 15.3 17.6 14.1 14.5

RoCE 20.9 28.3 21.7 22.0

RoIC 18.3 22.4 20.1 20.5

Valuation Ratios (x)

P/E 24.7 17.7 16.6 14.6

EV / EBITDA 13.1 9.5 9.3 7.9

EV / Net Sales 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.9

Market Cap / Sales 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9

Price to Book Value 3.8 3.1 2.3 2.1

Solvency Ratios

Debt / Equity 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0

Current Ratio 3.1 2.4 2.5 2.7

Quick Ratio 1.7 1.1 1.1 1.3

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

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ICICI Securities | Retail Research 11

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Stock Tales | Polycab India

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavors to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its

stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold,

Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined

as the analysts' valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15%

Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

[email protected]

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ICICI Direct Research

Stock Tales | Polycab India

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