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Title: Population-Based Incidence Estimates of Influenza-Associated Respiratory Failure
Hospitalizations, 2003 - 2009
Authors:
• Justin R. Ortiz1,2,3
• Kathleen M. Neuzil1,2,3
• Tessa C. Rue4
• Hong Zhou5
• David K. Shay5
• Po-Yung Cheng5
• Colin R. Cooke6
• Christopher H. Goss1
Affiliations:
1. Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
2. Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
3. Vaccine Access and Delivery Global Program, PATH, Seattle, WA, USA
4. Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
5. Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
6. Department of Medicine, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
This article has an online data supplement, which is accessible from this issue's table of
content online at www.atsjournals.org.
Running Head: Influenza-Associated Respiratory Failure
Total word count for body of manuscript: 3275
Total word count for abstract: 250 words
Corresponding Author: Justin R. Ortiz, University of Washington Medical Center,
Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Box 356522, 1959 NE Pacific St.,
Seattle, WA 98195-6522. Phone: (206) 543-3166. Fax: (206) 685-8673. Email:
Author Contributions:
JO, KN, HZ, DS, and CG contributed to the conception and design of the study. JO
acquired study data. JO, KN, HZ, DS, TR, CC, and CG contributed to the analysis and
interpretation of the data. JO drafted the article. KN, HZ, DS, TR, CC, and CG revised
the article critically for important intellectual content. All authors contributed to the final
version of the article and approve of the final version to be published.
Subject Code List for Classification of Articles Submitted: 10.5 Epidemiology
(Microbiology and Pulmonary Infections)
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Funding: This study was supported with funding from the Robert Wood Johnson Harold
Amos Medical Faculty Development Program and the University of Washington
Housestaff Association John B. Coombs Research Award (Dr. Ortiz), and Robert Wood
Johnson Foundation Clinical Scholars program (Dr. Cooke). The funders had no role in
preparation of the manuscript or in the decision to submit the manuscript for publication.
No additional external funding was received for this manuscript.
This article was previously presented as an abstract at the American Thoracic Society
annual meeting in San Francisco, CA, USA, on May 18, 2012.
At a Glance Commentary:
• Scientific Knowledge on the Subject: In the United States, influenza typically is
associated with the most annual morbidity and mortality of any vaccine-
preventable disease. However, the incidence of influenza-associated acute
respiratory failure is unknown.
• What This Study Adds to the Field: This study estimates the population-based
incidence of influenza-associated acute respiratory failure. Influenza virus is
associated with an annual estimated 3.8% of all respiratory failure
hospitalizations during the influenza season, and disease severity increases
considerably with advancing age. Clinicians should maintain a high index of
suspicion for influenza infection among hospitalized patients with acute
respiratory illness when influenza is known to be circulating in a community.
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ABSTRACT
Rationale: The incidence of influenza-associated acute respiratory failure is unknown.
Objectives: We conducted this study to estimate the population-based incidence of
influenza-associated acute respiratory failure hospitalizations.
Methods: This is a cohort study from January 2003 through March 2009 using
hospitalization databases for Arizona, California, and Washington from the Healthcare
Cost and Utilization Project and influenza surveillance data for regions encompassing
these states. Acute respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation was defined by
ICD-9-CM code. We used negative-binomial regression modeling to estimate the
incidence of influenza-associated events.
Measurements and Main Results: The incidence of influenza-associated acute
respiratory failure was 2.7 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI 0.2, 23.5), and during the
influenza season, 3.8% of all respiratory failure hospitalizations were attributable to
influenza. Compared with adults aged 18-49 years, the incidence rate ratio (IRR) for
influenza-associated acute respiratory failure was lower among children aged 1-4 years
(0.9) and 5-17 years (0.3); however, it was higher among adults aged 50-64 years (4.8),
65-74 years (10.4), 75-84 years (19.9), and 85 years and older (33.7). Results were
similar with more sensitive and specific outcome definitions and in a sensitivity analysis
using only Arizona-specific outcome and surveillance data.
Conclusion: Our data indicate that influenza was an important contributor to respiratory
failure hospitalizations during 2003-2009. Clinicians should maintain a high index of
suspicion for influenza among hospitalized patients with acute respiratory illness when
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influenza is circulating in a community. Influenza has a greater effect on respiratory
failure in the elderly, for whom better prevention measures are needed.
Key Words: Epidemiology; Respiratory Tract Infections; Critical Care; Respiration,
Artificial; State Inpatient Database
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INTRODUCTION
During a typical year in the United States, influenza is responsible for the highest
morbidity and mortality of any vaccine-preventable disease (1, 2). However, the burden
of severe influenza disease is difficult to ascertain. Published prospective surveillance
studies of hospitalized patients with laboratory confirmation of influenza infection have
small sample sizes limiting analyses and are too costly to conduct in many sites or over
multiple influenza seasons (2). Further, because influenza symptoms are non-specific
and laboratory testing of hospitalized patients is uncommon, analyses of administrative
datasets for patients with influenza diagnoses may underestimate disease incidence (3).
For these reasons, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommends use of
regression modeling methods to estimate influenza burden of disease when
administrative hospitalization datasets and robust influenza surveillance data are
available (4).
From influenza modeling studies, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
estimates that an average of 23,607 influenza-associated deaths occurred annually in
the United States between 1977 and 2007 (5). In the CDC study, mortality varied widely,
depending on the circulating influenza virus types and subtypes, with annual nationwide
death estimates ranging from 3,349 to 48,614 (5). CDC estimates of influenza-
associated hospitalizations also vary considerably from year to year. A recent modeling
study using the State Inpatient Database (SID) from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization
Project (HCUP) estimates all-age US influenza hospitalization rates ranged from 63.5 to
100.3 hospitalizations per 100,000 person-years between 1993 and 2008 (2).
While there are reports that 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic stressed critical care
services worldwide (6), there are no incidence estimates of respiratory failure associated
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with seasonal or pandemic influenza. The objective of this study was to address this
knowledge gap by estimating a population-based incidence of seasonal influenza-
associated hospitalizations for respiratory failure in the western US states of Arizona,
California, and Washington. Some of the results of this study have been previously
reported in the form of an abstract (7).
METHODS
Study Design
We conducted a retrospective cohort study from January 2003 through March 2009
using hospitalization databases from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP)
and regional influenza surveillance data from the CDC. We included all inpatient
discharge abstracts from community hospitals in the HCUP State Inpatient Database
(SID) from Arizona, California, and Washington during the study period. Our primary
objective was to estimate the population-based incidence of seasonal influenza-
associated hospitalizations for acute respiratory failure. Our exposures of interest were
positive surveillance tests for influenza A (H1N1), influenza A (H3N1), and influenza B
from the western United States. The primary outcome was acute respiratory failure
requiring mechanical ventilation defined by ICD-9-CM code. We linked the
hospitalization datasets with the surveillance datasets by calendar time and geographic
region. We then used negative-binomial regression models to estimate the incidence of
influenza-associated events overall and by several age groups. Sensitivity analyses
were done to assess choice of outcome and choice of predictor of interest.
Virologic Surveillance Data
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We obtained influenza surveillance data from the CDC which administers surveillance
conducted by the US WHO Collaborating Laboratories and National Respiratory and
Enteric Virus Surveillance System (NREVSS) Laboratories (8) (See Online Supplement
for extended study methods). We used surveillance data from two contiguous US
regions with similar influenza activity from July 2002 through June 2009: US Federal
Region 9 (Arizona, California, Hawaii, and Nevada) data for analyses of Arizona and
California hospitalizations and US Federal Region 10 (Alaska, Idaho, Oregon, and
Washington) data for analyses of Washington hospitalizations. Data linkages to
individual persons, clinical or epidemiological data, or tests for other respiratory viruses
are not available. Previously, we have shown that virologic surveillance data from CDC
are highly correlated with other commonly used nationwide influenza surveillance
systems (9).
Influenza viruses typically circulate during winter months and across calendar years.
Therefore, we defined July through June of the following year as a “surveillance year” so
that an entire influenza season was studied. To compare events during periods of
differing influenza activity, we defined three time periods: the “influenza season” is all
months in which ≥10% of regional surveillance tests were positive for influenza. All other
months were “non-influenza winter months” (from October through April) or “summer
months” (from May through September). To reduce possible bias associated with
differences in specimen sampling and laboratory methods over time, we standardized
monthly numbers of specimens that tested positive for influenza A (H1N1), influenza A
(H3N2), and influenza B by dividing by the total number of specimens tested that
surveillance year. For a sensitivity analysis, we used Arizona-specific virologic
surveillance data obtained from Arizona Department of Health Services. We calculated
the Pearson’s correlation coefficient describing the relationship of Arizona-specific and
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Region 9 data, and we compared Arizona outcome estimates derived from the two
surveillance datasets.
Hospitalization Data
We obtained the complete State Inpatient Database (SID) for Arizona, California, and
Washington from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP), Agency for
Healthcare Research and Quality for 2003 through 2009 (10). The SID contains all
inpatient discharge abstracts from state hospitals, excepting some specialty hospitals
unlikely to have many acute respiratory failure events (10). The outcome of interest for
this study was acute respiratory failure. We defined hospitalizations with acute
respiratory failure as any hospitalization that had a code for acute respiratory distress or
failure (ICD-9-CM 518.5, 518.81, or 518.82) and a procedure code for continuous
mechanical ventilation (ICD-9-CM 96.7), as had been done previously (11). Because the
primary outcome definition may miss acute respiratory failure hospitalizations in which
acute respiratory distress or failure had not been coded, we performed sensitivity
analyses with more sensitive and specific definitions to represent upper- and lower-
range incidence estimates (Table 1).
We used seven age categories: 1-4 years, 5-17 years, 18-49 years, 50-64 years, 65-74
years, 75-84 years, and 85 years and older. Children <1 year of age were excluded from
this analysis to address confounding due to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)
hospitalizations.
Statistical Analysis
We modified negative binomial regression models developed to estimate US influenza-
associated hospitalizations (2, 5). Negative binomial regression was used given the
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distribution of the data and concern that assumptions implicit in Poisson regression
would not apply to these data. A recent study has validated this approach to estimating
influenza-associated hospitalizations against prospective surveillance for laboratory-
confirmed influenza in children (12).
Age-specific negative binomial regression models were fit to monthly acute respiratory
failure hospitalizations. Covariates for the standardized proportion of specimens testing
positive each month for influenza categorized as H1N1, H3N2, and B were included in
the models. Additional covariates accounted for seasonal trend, secular trend, and state.
To estimate excess respiratory failure hospitalizations associated with influenza, we
subtracted expected baseline events from a full model incorporating all viral terms,
where the baseline represented a model in which a viral covariate was set to zero. This
method defines the difference between predicted and baseline events as influenza-
associated events. The baseline accounts for seasonal variability in hospitalizations not
associated with influenza. However, risk factors for acute respiratory failure that are
collinear with influenza activity could still confound the analysis. Previous studies have
found collinearity between RSV and influenza virus circulation when the surveillance
data were analyzed at the month level; this situation resolves when the influenza and
RSV data were analyzed at the week level (13). Unfortunately, week-level hospitalization
data are not publicly available from SID. To minimize the impact of not having RSV in
our model, we excluded children <1 year of age. The rationale for this was based on a
systematic review and meta-analysis of RSV in childhood which concluded that RSV
deaths among children >1 year are negligible (14); a modeling study similar to ours
which estimated >75% of RSV hospitalizations occur among infants aged <1 year (2);
and, finally, two systematic global burden of disease studies which concluded that RSV
disease was not an important contributor to adult morbidity in developed country settings
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(15, 16). While other respiratory viruses also circulate in the wintertime, such as
adenovirus, human metapneumovirus, and the human parainfluenza viruses, they
typically are not the most common respiratory pathogens in any age group and they had
different temporal activity than influenza during the study period (2, 17). The 95%
confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated with the model variance for the predicted
values from regression models as had been done in previous studies (2, 5, 13). The
model was fit to data from Jan 2003 through March 2009 to exclude the 2009 influenza
A (H1N1) pandemic from this analysis.
The modeled monthly outcomes were summed for each viral term across the study
period and states by influenza surveillance year for each age category. Annual state
population estimates were acquired from the US census and were used to calculate
population-based monthly incidence rates of outcomes (18). Sensitivity analyses were
done to assess choice of outcome and choice of predictor of interest.
This study received exempt review status from the Human Subjects Division at the
University of Washington and was performed with SAS statistical software (version 9.3;
Cary, NC).
RESULTS
Description of Primary Outcome
From January 2003 through March 2009, there were 568,772 hospitalizations for acute
respiratory failure in Arizona (14.9%), California (74.8%), and Washington (10.3%). The
calculated population-based incidence rate of acute respiratory failure hospitalizations
was 191.0 per 100,000 person-years (Table 2). Incidence of acute respiratory failure
differed greatly by age group. Children aged 1-4 years had an acute respiratory failure
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incidence rate of 33.3 per 100,000 person-years, which declined in the 5-17 years age
group to 18.8 per 100,000 person-years, and increased with increasing age thereafter.
Description of Influenza Surveillance Database
From January 2003 through March 2009, there were 132,905 influenza surveillance
laboratory tests performed in US Federal Region 9, and of these, 14,530 (11%) were
positive for influenza virus. Over this same period, there were 52,192 influenza
surveillance laboratory tests performed in US Federal Region 10, with 6,773 (13%)
testing positive for influenza virus. The majority of Federal Region 9 and 10 laboratory
tests were from the states in this analysis. Surveillance tests were positive for influenza
virus during every month, and different influenza virus types and subtypes circulated
during the study period (Figure E1 in online supplement). Among all positive influenza
surveillance tests, 50% were for influenza A (H3N2), 25% were for influenza A (H1N1),
and 26% were for influenza B.
Influenza-Associated Acute Respiratory Failure
There was a temporal relationship between acute respiratory failure hospitalization
incidence and influenza activity (Figure 1). Concomitant increases in acute respiratory
failure hospitalizations and influenza positive surveillance tests typically occurred during
January to March of each year, except in 2003-04 and 2005-06 in which both increased
earlier in the surveillance year.
Using multivariate regression methods, we estimated an influenza-associated acute
respiratory failure incidence rate of 2.7 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI: 0.2, 23.5)
(Table 2). The percentage of total acute respiratory failure hospitalizations attributable to
influenza was 1.4%. The incidence of influenza-associated acute respiratory failure
increased with age. Compared to the 18-49 years age group, the incidence rate ratio of
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influenza-associated acute respiratory failure was similar in persons 1-4 years (0.9) and
decreased in persons 5-17 years (0.3); however, the incidence rate ratio increased in
50-64 years (4.8), 65-74 years (10.4), 75-84 years (19.9), and 85 years and older (33.7).
During the influenza season, the incidence of influenza-associated respiratory failure
events was 7.9 per 100,000 person-years. 3.8% of all acute respiratory failure
hospitalizations are attributable to influenza during these periods. The percentage of
influenza-associated outcomes were proportional to the percentage of positive influenza
tests during the influenza season (85% and 78%), non-influenza winter months (11%
and 16%), and summer months (4% and 6%). The proportion of acute respiratory failure
associated with influenza types and subtypes was similar to the proportion of circulating
viruses identified (Table E1 in online supplement), except influenza B was associated
with a higher incidence of acute respiratory failure among the elderly, and influenza A
(H3N2) was associated with all the influenza-associated events in young children.
Influenza-associated acute respiratory failure incidence varied by surveillance year (see
Table E2 in online supplement). In 2003-04, 3.9% of all respiratory failure events were
attributable to influenza in the 1-4 years age group. This proportion is > 1.5 times the
population-attributable risk for the same age group over the entire study period (2.3%).
Notably, during 2003-04, there was no change in event rates among adult populations.
Our primary analysis incidence rate estimate was similar to secondary analyses that
used outcome definitions that we considered to be more sensitive and more specific for
acute respiratory failure. Influenza-associated respiratory and circulatory diagnoses with
mechanical ventilation or non-invasive ventilation occurred at a rate of 3.5 per 100,000
person-years (95% CI: 0.3, 32.6); and the primary outcome excluding all hospitalizations
with a major therapeutic surgery occurred at a rate of 2.1 per 100,000 person-years
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(95% CI: 0.2, 17.2) (see Table E3 in online supplement). Incidence rate estimates within
age groups were also similar.
Because we used aggregated regional influenza surveillance data to make inferences
about disease activity in only three US states, we repeated the analysis with the Arizona
hospitalization dataset and two different sources of Arizona influenza surveillance data
(Federal Region 9 and state-specific data) to determine whether use of these different
surveillance data would lead to similar results. The overall incidence rate of influenza-
associated acute respiratory failure was 3.7 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI: 0.3,
47.7) using Arizona-specific data and 4.1 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI: 0.1, 43.4)
using Federal Region 9 data (see Table E4 in online supplement). Incidence rate
estimates within age groups were also similar. The Pearson correlation coefficients
describing the relationship of standardized monthly frequencies of positive influenza
virus tests for US Federal Region 9 and Arizona state surveillance from June 2003
through March 2009 were very high for influenza A (H3N2) (0.91), influenza A (H1N1)
(0.92), and influenza B (0.95).
DISCUSSION
This study provides the first population-based incidence of influenza-associated acute
respiratory failure. In a cohort that includes over 50 million people from a defined
geographic region over 5 years, we estimate the incidence of influenza-associated acute
respiratory failure to be 2.7 events per 100,000 person-years. During the influenza
season, 3.8% of all respiratory failure hospitalizations are attributable to influenza. If the
risk of influenza-associated acute respiratory failure is similar to the risk of influenza and
pneumonia mortality, we would anticipate that our results are likely to be generalizable to
the rest of the United States. Pneumonia and influenza mortality from 2009 National Vital
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Statistics Reports were similar in Arizona (15.1 deaths/100,000 population), California
(17.9 deaths/100,000 population), Washington (10.7 deaths/100,000 population), and
the United States overall (16.2 deaths/100,000 population) (19). If data from this study
were extrapolated to the entire US population, we estimate that there were 8,506 cases
annually of influenza-associated acute respiratory failure between January 2003 and
March 2009.
The finding of disproportionate burden of severe influenza disease in the elderly is
consistent with clinical research identifying this group as at risk for severe influenza
disease and death (5). While young children had low incidence of acute respiratory
failure, many of these events were also associated with influenza. We found that the
population-attributable risk for influenza-associated acute respiratory failure was
substantially increased during the 2003-04 influenza season among children aged 1- 4
years. This finding is consistent with the early, intense activity and increased pediatric
influenza deaths seen during that season (20). Despite the large increase in influenza-
associated acute respiratory failure incidence in young children during 2003-04, the
absolute risk increase was small. Older age groups were spared increases in very
severe disease during the 2003-04 season, which was noted at the time and has been
attributed to pre-existing immunity (21).
We may have underestimated the actual US incidence of influenza-associated
respiratory failure for several reasons. Our study was conducted during a period of lower
influenza-associated morbidity than prior studies, as we excluded the 1990s which were
characterized by circulation of more pathogenic influenza A (H3N2) viruses (2). We
excluded children < 1 year of age to address confounding by RSV disease, however this
age group has high influenza morbidity and mortality (2, 5, 14). Our primary outcome
definition required mechanical ventilation while many patients with influenza-associated
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respiratory failure may be treated by non-invasive means. Further, while our estimates of
influenza-associated outcomes were consistent, even when we used more sensitive and
specific outcome measures, our reliance on month level hospitalization events likely
decreased our incidence estimates and their precision.
Our analysis is subject to limitations. There is no consensus ICD-9-CM code definition
for acute respiratory failure; however, our incidence estimates are similar to studies
using different methodologies (11, 22, 23). Some exposure data came from states in
which no outcomes were measured; however, we chose the largest western US states
for this study which accounted for most of the surveillance testing in their census
regions, and our sensitivity analysis using Arizona-specific data demonstrated influenza
activity was highly correlated to data from its region. Despite our use of multiple years of
data from large states, our estimates have large 95% confidence intervals. The
frequency of specimen collection and physician testing practice vary throughout the
seasons and thus could influence our estimates (2). Finally, our model did not account
for RSV. Small, single center surveillance studies conducted over few seasons have
found high rates of adult RSV hospitalizations (24, 25). If similar rates occurred in our
study population, they could lead to over-estimates of the rates of influenza-associated
events
The best way to prevent influenza disease is by immunization. In the United States, all
persons 6 months and older are recommended to receive influenza vaccine annually
(26). Despite these universal recommendations, vaccine coverage remains below goals
(27). The highest burden of severe influenza disease occurs in elderly populations (26).
Vaccine efficacy estimates are lower in the elderly than in younger adults (28-30). While
observational influenza vaccine studies in the elderly should be interpreted with caution
given the potential for bias and confounding (31), recent observational studies have
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found influenza vaccine can be effective at reducing hospitalizations and all-cause
mortality in the elderly (32-34). Our study highlights that there is a desperate need to
improve influenza prevention in the elderly. While representing only 12% of the study
population, they had 60% of the severe influenza-associated disease. Several efforts are
ongoing to improve vaccine performance in the elderly, including increased antigen dose
and the use of adjuvants in recently licensed vaccines (26, 35), and the active
investigation by manufacturers of inactivated quadrivalent influenza vaccines that
include both circulating influenza B lineages (36).
Severe influenza-associated disease in the ICU may appear similar to severe illnesses
due to many other etiologies. We found that the risk of influenza-associated acute
respiratory failure is proportional to positive surveillance tests for influenza within a state
or region. Clinicians should maintain a high index of suspicion for influenza infection
among hospitalized patients with acute respiratory illness when influenza is known to be
circulating in their communities. WHO and CDC both advocate empiric oseltamivir
therapy for patients with severe acute respiratory illness during periods of influenza
activity while specific testing is being performed (37, 38). To aid clinicians, CDC and
many state and local health departments have webpages with relevant influenza
surveillance data for most communities (39). There are also novel monitoring tools which
track influenza disease at the community level (40).
Prospective studies with laboratory-confirmed endpoints to measure influenza incidence
are required to better assess the contribution of influenza to severe morbidity, however
such studies may never be done due to the high costs and sample sizes that are
required. Our study suggests that influenza disease is an important contributor to acute
respiratory failure hospitalizations, it has a high impact in the elderly, and it will likely
remain important for years to come.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors would like to thank Billy Kreuter for valuable programming help and the
following individuals for their assistance understanding influenza surveillance in their
states: Laura M. Erhart, Arizona Department of Health Services; Meileen Acosta,
California Department of Public Health; and Kathy Lofy, Washington State Department
of Health. We would also like to acknowledge the organizations that contributed to the
State Inpatient Databases (SID) of the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP)
used in this study: Arizona Department of Health Services, California Office of Statewide
Health Planning and Development, and Washington State Department of Health.
DISCLAIMER
The opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect
the opinions of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention or the institutions with
which the authors are affiliated.
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Table 1. Acute Respiratory Failure Hospitalization Definitions
Primary Outcome
Respiratory Failure (11) • Any code for acute respiratory distress or failure
(ICD-9-CM 518.5, 518.81, or 518.82)
• AND has a procedure code for continuous
mechanical ventilation (ICD-9-CM 96.7)
Secondary Outcomes
Upper Range Estimate:
Respiratory or Circulatory
Hospitalizations with either
Mechanical Ventilation or
Non-Invasive Ventilation
• Respiratory or circulatory hospitalizations (ICD-9-
CM codes 390-519)
• AND any mechanical ventilation (All codes: 96.7x)
OR any non-invasive ventilation (93.90)
Lower Range Estimate:
Respiratory Failure
Hospitalizations (excluding
all those with a major
therapeutic surgery) (11, 41)
• Any code for acute respiratory distress or failure
(ICD-9-CM 518.5, 518.81, or 518.82)
• AND has a procedure code for continuous
mechanical ventilation (ICD-9-CM 96.7)
• NOT any patient who had a major therapeutic
surgery during the same hospitalization
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Table 2. Influenza-Associated Respiratory Failure Hospitalizations by Age Group; AZ, CA, and WA, January 2003 – March
2009
Age
Group
(years)
Total
Respiratory
Failure
Hospitaliza
-tions
Person-
Years
Respiratory
Failure
Incidence
Rate per
100,000
Person-
Years
Total Influenza-
Associated
Respiratory
Failure
Hospitalizations
Influenza-
Associated
Respiratory
Failure
Incidence
Rate per
100,000
Person-
Years
95%
Confidence
Interval
% of Total
Outcomes
Attributable
to Influenza
1-4 5,897 17,728,574 33.3 136 0.8 0.1, 10.6 2.3%
5-17 10,651 56,453,066 18.8 141 0.3 0.0, 4.5 1.3%
18-49 114,367 140,843,295 81.2 1,163 0.8 0.0, 9.6 1.0%
50-64 144,398 48,957,999 294.9 1,959 4.0 0.2, 32.4 1.4%
65-74 115,264 17,372,578 663.5 1,502 8.7 0.3, 77.7 1.3%
75-84 123,619 11,864,963 1041.9 1,956 16.5 1.5, 126.2 1.6%
>84 54,576 4,505,319 1211.4 1,259 27.9 3.2, 170.4 2.3%
All Ages 568,772 297,725,793 191.0 8,116 2.7 0.2, 23.5 1.4%
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Figure 1: Respiratory Failure Hospitalization Incidence, Arizona and California, January 2003- March 2009 and US Federal Region 9 Positive Influenza Surveillance Tests
Note: US Federal Region 9 includes Arizona, California, Nevada, and Hawaii
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Figure 1: Respiratory Failure Hospitalization Incidence, Arizona and California, January 2003- March 2009 and US Federal Region 9 Positive Influenza Surveillance Tests
254x147mm (72 x 72 DPI)
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Supplement Page 1
ONLINE DATA SUPPLEMENT
Title: Population-Based Incidence of Influenza-Associated Respiratory Failure Hospitalizations,
2003 - 2009
Authors:
• Justin R. Ortiz1,2,3
• Kathleen M. Neuzil1,2,3
• Tessa C. Rue4
• Hong Zhou5
• David K. Shay5
• Po-Yung Cheng5
• Colin R. Cooke6
• Christopher H. Goss1
Affiliations:
1. Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
2. Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
3. Vaccine Access and Delivery Global Program, PATH, Seattle, WA, USA
4. Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
5. Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
6. Department of Medicine, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
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EXTENDED METHODS
Study Design
We conducted a retrospective cohort study from January 2003 through March 2009 using
hospitalization databases from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) and regional
influenza surveillance data from the CDC. We included all inpatient discharge abstracts from
community hospitals in the HCUP State Inpatient Database (SID) from Arizona, California, and
Washington during the study period. Our primary objective was to estimate the population-
based incidence of seasonal influenza-associated hospitalizations for acute respiratory failure.
Our exposures of interest were positive surveillance tests for influenza A (H1N1), influenza A
(H3N1), and influenza B from the western United States. The primary outcome was acute
respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation defined by ICD-9-CM code. We linked the
hospitalization datasets with the surveillance datasets by calendar time and geographic region.
We then used negative-binomial regression models to estimate the incidence of influenza-
associated events overall and by several age groups. Sensitivity analyses were done to assess
choice of outcome and choice of predictor of interest.
Virologic Surveillance Data
We obtained influenza surveillance data from the CDC which administers surveillance
conducted by the US World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Laboratories and
National Respiratory and Enteric Virus Surveillance System (NREVSS) laboratories (E1, E2).
US influenza surveillance data are publicly available as datasets aggregated by US Federal
Region. State-level data are not publicly available for our states of interest; therefore, we used
surveillance data from two contiguous US regions with similar influenza activity from July 2002
through June 2009: US Federal Region 9 (Arizona, California, Hawaii, and Nevada) data for
analyses of Arizona and California hospitalizations and US Federal Region 10 (Alaska, Idaho,
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Oregon, and Washington) data for analyses of Washington hospitalizations (E3). The majority of
Federal Region 9 and 10 laboratory tests were from the states in this analysis. From 2003-04
through 2007-08 influenza seasons, California and Arizona accounted for 43% and 5% of total
Region 9 surveillance laboratory tests, while Washington accounted for 74% of total Region 10
surveillance laboratory tests (personal communication Laura Erhart, Arizona Department of
Health Services; Meileen Acosta, California Department of Public Health; and Kathy Lofy,
Washington State Department of Health).
We assumed Region 9 and 10 rates of positive laboratory tests for the three states of interest.
All state public health laboratories participate as WHO Collaborating Laboratories along with
some county public health laboratories and some large tertiary-care or academic medical
centers. Most NREVSS laboratories participating in influenza surveillance are hospital
laboratories. Nationwide, approximately 145 laboratories participate in the WHO Collaborating
Laboratories or NRVESS (E4). The participating laboratories report the total number of
respiratory specimens tested and the number positive for influenza types A and B each week to
CDC. Most of the WHO collaborating laboratories also report the influenza A subtype (H1N1 or
H3N2) of the viruses they have isolated. The majority of NREVSS laboratories do not report the
influenza A subtype (E1). Influenza B lineages are not distinguished in these data. Data
linkages to individual persons, clinical or epidemiological data, or tests for other respiratory
viruses are not available. Previously, we have shown that virologic surveillance data from CDC
are highly correlated with other commonly used nationwide influenza surveillance systems (E5).
Influenza viruses typically circulate during winter months and across calendar years. Therefore,
we defined July 1 through June 30 of the following year as a “surveillance year” so that an entire
influenza season was studied. To compare events during periods of differing influenza activity,
we defined three time periods: the “influenza season” is all months in which ≥10% of regional
surveillance tests were positive for influenza. All other months were “non-influenza winter
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months” (from October through April) or “summer months” (from May through September).
Surveillance data include the weekly frequency of total respiratory specimens tested for
influenza and the frequency of positive influenza tests by virus type and subtype. The isolates of
unknown influenza A viruses were assumed to be H1N1 and H3N2 according to their proportion
over the entire influenza season. The weekly influenza surveillance data were aggregated to
month and were standardized to reduce possible bias associated with differences in specimen
sampling and laboratory methods over time. We did this by dividing the monthly frequency of
specimens testing positive by the sum of specimens collected per surveillance year. The
monthly standardized counts of specimens that tested positive for influenza virus by type and
subtype (A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and B) were used in estimating the effect of influenza circulation on
monthly hospitalizations. For a sensitivity analysis, we used similar, Arizona-specific virologic
surveillance data obtained from Arizona Department of Health Services which were prepared in
the same fashion as the US Federal Region data. We calculated the Pearson’s correlation
coefficient describing the relationship of Arizona-specific and Region 9 data, and we compared
Arizona outcome estimates derived from the two surveillance datasets.
Hospitalization Data
We obtained the complete State Inpatient Database (SID) for Arizona, California, and
Washington from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP), Agency for Healthcare
Research and Quality for 2003 through 2009 (E6). The SID contains all inpatient discharge
abstracts from state hospitals, excepting some specialty hospitals unlikely to have many acute
respiratory failure events (E6). The SID datasets contain the universe of the inpatient discharge
abstracts from community hospitals in participating states, translated into a uniform format to
facilitate multi-state comparisons and analyses (E6). The anonymous SID includes numerous
data elements for each hospital stay, including primary and secondary diagnoses, primary and
secondary procedures, admission and discharge status, patient demographics, and other
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information. Non-community hospitals excluded from the database include federal hospitals,
long-term hospitals, psychiatric hospitals, alcohol/chemical dependency treatment facilities and
hospitals units within institutions such as prisons.
The outcome of interest for this study was acute respiratory failure. There is no consensus ICD-
9-CM definition of respiratory failure. For our primary outcome, we used the definition set forth in
a previous estimate of US respiratory failure hospitalizations using the 1994 HCUP Nationwide
Inpatient Sample (E6). As had been done previously, we defined hospitalizations with acute
respiratory failure as any hospitalization that had a code for acute respiratory distress or failure
(ICD-9-CM 518.5, 518.81, or 518.82) and a procedure code for continuous mechanical
ventilation (ICD-9-CM 96.7) (E7). Because the primary outcome definition may miss acute
respiratory failure hospitalizations in which acute respiratory distress or failure had not been
coded, we performed sensitivity analyses with more sensitive and specific definitions to
represent upper- and lower-range incidence estimates. The upper-range estimate of acute
respiratory failure was defined as any hospitalization that had a code for any respiratory or
circulatory diagnosis (ICD-9-CM codes 390-519) and any mechanical ventilation (All codes:
96.7x) or non-invasive ventilation (93.90). As a lower-range estimate, we identified all
hospitalizations for the primary outcome and excluded all patients diagnosed with a major
therapeutic surgery using the HCUP Procedure Classes Tool (E8). We chose this secondary
outcome to exclude patients for whom mechanical ventilation was performed for surgical
reasons or complications of surgery and not primarily for treatment of respiratory disease. This
definition likely under-estimates acute respiratory failure hospitalizations because mechanical
ventilation for acute respiratory failure and major therapeutic surgery are not mutually exclusive
diagnoses. Neither the primary outcome definition nor the secondary outcome definitions
include hospitalizations in which patients with severe respiratory disease died without receiving
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any mechanical ventilation. We therefore likely underestimate the total number of acute
respiratory failure hospitalizations.
We used seven age categories: 1-4 years, 5-17 years, 18-49 years, 50-64 years, 65-74 years,
75-84 years, and 85 years and older. Children <1 year of age were excluded from this analysis
to address confounding due to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), the most important respiratory
pathogen for this age group. Previous studies have shown collinearity between monthly RSV
and influenza virus surveillance data which resolves when analyzed at the week level (E3, E9).
However, week-level hospitalization data are not publicly available from SID, necessitating
exclusion of RSV from our model. Since >75% of RSV hospitalizations are estimated to occur
among children <1 year of age (E10), we excluded that age group from this analysis. Another
22% of total RSV hospitalizations are estimated to occur in the 1 to 4 year age group (E10),
however, as this group contributes to few respiratory failure events, we included it in this
analysis.
Statistical Analysis
We modified negative binomial regression models developed by the CDC to estimate US
influenza-associated hospitalizations (E3, E10-E12). A key difference between our model and
the CDC model is that CDC used weekly surveillance and hospitalization data, and we were
limited to month level data from HCUP. Count variables, for example the number of
hospitalizations occurring during a specific period, are often modeled by using Poisson
regression. An assumption of the Poisson model is that the observed variance in counts is
approximately equal to their sample mean. However, in practice, the observed variance
frequently exceeds the mean, a situation often termed overdispersion. The negative binomial
model is a generalization of the Poisson model, and can be used to account for overdispersion
in count data, as can other approaches, including quasi-Poisson regression. Negative binomial
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and quasi-Poisson methods have been used to estimate the burden of influenza disease in
many countries (E13-E18). Models similar to ours produce influenza mortality estimates that are
comparable to other statistical approaches used previously (E13). A recent study has validated
this approach to estimating influenza-associated hospitalizations against prospective
surveillance for laboratory-confirmed influenza in children (E19).
Age-specific negative binomial regression models were fit to monthly acute respiratory failure
hospitalizations in the three states of interest. Covariates for the standardized proportion of
specimens testing positive each month for A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and B in the two US Federal
Regions were included in the models. To estimate excess respiratory failure hospitalizations
associated with influenza, we subtracted expected baseline events from a full model
incorporating all viral terms, where the baseline represented a model in which a viral covariate
was set to zero. The baseline accounts for seasonal variability in hospitalizations not associated
with influenza. However, risk factors for acute respiratory failure that are collinear with influenza
activity could still confound the analysis.. Previous studies have found collinearity between RSV
and influenza virus circulation when the surveillance data were analyzed at the month level; this
situation resolves when the influenza and RSV data were analyzed at the week level (E3, E9).
Unfortunately, week-level hospitalization data are not publicly available from SID. To minimize
the impact of not having RSV in our model, we excluded children <1 year of age. The rationale
for this was based on a systematic review and meta-analysis of RSV in childhood which
concluded that RSV deaths among children >1 year are negligible (E10); a modeling study
similar to ours which estimated >75% of RSV hospitalizations occur among infants aged <1 year
(E11); and, finally, two systematic global burden of disease studies which concluded that RSV
disease was not an important contributor to adult morbidity in developed country settings (E12,
E13). While other respiratory viruses also circulate in the wintertime, such as adenovirus,
human metapneumovirus, and the human parainfluenza viruses, they typically are not the most
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common respiratory pathogens in any age group and they had different temporal activity than
influenza during the study period (E14, E24). The 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were
estimated with the model variance for the predicted values from regression models as had been
done in previous studies (E3, E14-E16).
The model was fit to data from Jan 2003 through March 2009 to exclude the 2009 influenza A
(H1N1) pandemic from this analysis. The model is as follows:
Y = α *exp{ β0 + β1[t] + β2[t2] + β3[t
3] + β4[t4] + β5[sin (2tπ/12)] + β6[cos (2tπ/12)] + β7[WA]
+ β8[CA] + β9[A(H1N1)] + β10[A(H3N2)] + β11[B]}
Where Yi represents the number of outcomes in a particular state during a particular month (t), α
is equal to the population size, β1 through β4 account for secular trend, β5 through β6 account for
seasonal trend, and β9 through β11 represent standardized specimens testing positive for
influenza in a given month.
The modeled monthly outcomes were summed for each viral term across the study period and
states by influenza surveillance year for each age category. Annual state population estimates
were acquired from the US census and were used to calculate population-based monthly
incidence rates of outcomes (E25).
Sensitivity analyses were done to assess choice of outcome and choice of predictor of interest.
We conducted secondary analyses using additional outcome definitions that we considered a
priori to be more sensitive and more specific than the primary outcome. Next, because exposure
to influenza in the primary analysis included some laboratory tests conducted outside the study
states, we repeated the primary analysis with only Arizona-specific hospitalization and
surveillance data. We also calculated Pearson’s correlation coefficients to compare monthly
standardized counts of all specimens that tested positive for influenza viruses in Arizona
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surveillance dataset with the aggregated Federal Region 9 surveillance dataset. If Arizona
specific analysis yielded similar incidence rates to the primary analysis, and if there was a high
correlation between the two surveillance datasets, we assumed that use of regional virologic
data was adequate for our primary analysis.
This study received exempt review status from the Human Subjects Division at the University of
Washington. Analyses were performed with SAS statistical software (version 9.3).
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Table E1. Influenza Type- and Subtype-Associated Respiratory Failure
Hospitalizations by Age Group; AZ, CA, and WA, January 2003 – March
2009
Age
Group
Seasonal
Influenza A
(H1N1)-
Associated
Events
n (%)
Influenza A
(H3N2)-
Associated
Events
n (%)
Influenza B-
Associated
Events n (%)
Total Influenza-
Associated
Events
1-4 0 (0%) 136 (100%) 0 (0%) 136
5-17 73 (51.8%) 52 (36.9%) 16 (11.3%) 141
18-49 552 (47.5%) 540 (46.4%) 71 (6.1%) 1,163
50-64 0 (0%) 995 (50.8%) 964 (49.2%) 1,959
65-74 0 (0%) 888 (59.1%) 614 (40.9%) 1,502
75-84 0 (0%) 1338 (68.4%) 618 (31.6%) 1,956
>84 0 (0%) 800 (63.5%) 459 (36.5%) 1,259
All Age 625 (7.7%) 4749 (58.5%) 2742 (33.8%) 8,116
Note: Among the 21,303 positive surveillance tests from the three states, 25.0% were for
influenza A (H1N1), 49.8% were for influenza A (H3N2), and 25.5% were for influenza B.
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Table E2. Influenza-Associated Acute Respiratory Failure Hospitalizations by Surveillance Year and Age Group; AZ, CA, and
WA, July 2003 through March 2009
Year Age Group Total Events Person-
Years
Respiratory
Failure
Incidence
Rate per
100,000
Person-
Years
Total
Influenza-
associated
Respiratory
Failure
Hospitalizati
ons (all types
and
subtypes)
Influenza-
Associated
Respiratory
Failure
Incidence
Rate per
100,000
Person-
Years
95%
Confidence
Interval
2003-04 1-4 905 2,747,298 32.9 35 1.3 0.3, 12.2
5-17 1,587 9,038,733 17.6 14 0.2 0.0, 4.3
18-49 16,104 22,306,637 72.2 126 0.6 0.0, 8.6
50-64 19,534 7,238,662 269.9 225 3.1 0.6, 31.4
65-74 17,418 2,661,007 654.6 218 8.2 1.4, 84.2
75-84 19,138 1,874,859 1020.8 338 18.0 5.5, 141.7
>84 7,853 653,079 1202.5 187 28.6 10.6, 192.1
All 82,539 46,520,274 177.4 1,143 2.5 0.6, 23.8
2004-05 1-4 884 2,803,036 31.5 19 0.7 0.0, 9.6
5-17 1,657 9,035,528 18.3 12 0.1 0.0, 4.0
18-49 17,103 22,416,841 76.3 94 0.4 0.0, 8.1
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50-64 21,206 7,522,402 281.9 393 5.2 0.1, 31.4
65-74 17,918 2,697,984 664.1 301 11.2 0.0, 80.1
75-84 19,569 1,894,498 1032.9 377 19.9 0.1, 131.4
>84 7,908 679,481 1163.8 244 35.9 0.9, 181.6
All 86,245 47,049,769 183.3 1,440 3.06 0.0, 22.7
2005-06 1-4 904 2,837,206 31.9 33 1.2 0.2, 10.1
5-17 1,710 9,038,609 18.9 16 0.2 0.0, 4.0
18-49 18,296 22,522,484 81.2 155 0.7 0.0, 8.4
50-64 22,368 7,804,299 286.6 362 4.6 0.2, 30.1
65-74 17,877 2,739,642 652.5 292 10.7 0.4, 75.8
75-84 19,522 1,905,984 1024.3 414 21.7 3.6, 126.3
>84 8,620 712,120 1210.5 252 35.4 8.3, 171.1
All 89,297 47,560,342 187.8 1,524 3.2 0.3, 22.3
2006-07 1-4 941 2,864,527 32.9 18 0.6 0.0, 9.0
5-17 1,809 9,037,652 20.0 25 0.3 0.0, 4.2
18-49 19,081 22,617,817 84.4 216 1.0 0.0, 9.2
50-64 24,179 8,080,811 299.2 214 2.7 0.0, 27.7
65-74 18,331 2,801,034 654.4 161 5.8 0.0, 62.6
75-84 19,634 1,907,530 1029.3 209 11.0 0.1, 100.0
>84 8,830 746,672 1182.6 140 18.8 0.7, 135.7
All 92,805 48,056,042 193.1 983 2.1 0.0, 20.0
2007-08 1-4 999 2,907,860 34.4 19 0.7 0.0, 10.3
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5-17 1,783 9,022,386 19.8 29 0.3 0.0, 4.7
18-49 20,623 22,725,428 90.8 232 1.0 0.0, 10.7
50-64 26,946 8,345,219 322.9 447 5.4 0.0, 35.7
65-74 19,692 2,901,778 678.6 299 10.3 0.0, 78.7
75-84 20,586 1,912,264 1076.5 356 18.6 0.0, 125.7
>84 10,131 783,076 1293.7 265 33.8 0.5, 174.3
All 100,760 48,598,009 207.3 1,647 3.4 0.0, 25.1
2008-09* 1-4 789 2,210,493 35.7 6 0.3 0.0, 11.4
5-17 1,373 6,761,208 20.3 27 0.4 0.0, 5.5
18-49 15,700 17,132,037 91.6 218 1.3 0.0, 13.0
50-64 20,913 6,417,235 325.9 193 3.0 0.1, 38.3
65-74 15,514 2,249,153 689.8 128 5.7 0.0, 82.6
75-84 15,714 1,436,591 1093.8 131 9.1 0.0, 127.1
>84 7,425 609,378 1218.5 93 15.3 0.1, 161.1
All 77,428 36,816,094 210.3 796 2.2 0.0, 27.1
*Analysis for 2008-09 influenza season was shortened to exclude pandemic influenza A (H1N1) that emerged in April 2009
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Table E3. Sensitivity Analysis -- Influenza-Associated Respiratory Failure
Incidence Rates per 100,000 Person Years by Age Group Using Three Different
Respiratory Failure Outcome Definitions; AZ, CA, and WA, January 2003 – March
2009
Age
Group
(years)
Primary Outcome: Sensitivity Analysis
Outcome #2: Lower
Estimate of Acute
Respiratory Failure
Sensitivity Analysis
Outcome #1: Upper
Estimate of Acute
Respiratory Failure
Influenza-Associated
Respiratory Failure
Incidence Rate per
100,000 Person-Years
(95% Confidence
Interval)
Influenza-Associated
Respiratory Failure
Without Major
Therapeutic Surgery
Incidence Rate per
100,000 Person-Years
(95% Confidence
Interval)
Influenza-Associated
Acute Respiratory
and Circulatory
Hospitalizations with
Mechanical
Ventilation or Non-
Invasive Ventilation
Incidence Rate per
100,000 Person-Years
(95% Confidence
Interval)
1-4 0.8 (0.1, 10.6) 0.7 (0.1, 9.5 ) 1.6 ( 0.4, 12.8 )
5-17 0.3 (0.0, 4.5) 0.2 (0.0, 3.4 ) 0.6 ( 0.0, 6.0 )
18-49 0.8 (0.0, 9.6) 0.6 (0.0, 6.9 ) 1.5 ( 0.0, 12.0 )
50-64 4.0 (0.2, 32.4) 3.5 (0.4, 23.4 ) 4.3 ( 0.4, 48.5 )
65-74 8.7 (0.3, 77.7) 6.0 (0.6, 53.2 ) 9.6 ( 0.7, 110.8 )
75-84 16.5 (1.5, 126.2) 11.5 (1.8, 89.9 ) 19.1 ( 1.4, 178.2 )
>84 28.0 (3.2, 170.4) 23.4 (3.7, 147.7 ) 38.6 ( 7.8, 227.9 )
All 2.7 (0.2, 23.5) 2.1 (0.2, 17.2 ) 3.5 ( 0.3, 32.6 )
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Table E4. Sensitivity Analysis -- Influenza-Associated Respiratory Failure
Incidence Rate per 100,000 Person-Years by Age Group; Arizona, January 2003 –
March 2009 (Using Two Different Sources of Influenza Surveillance Data)
Age
Group
(years)
Primary Analysis:
Overall Influenza-
Associated
Respiratory Failure
Incidence Rate per
100,000 Person-Years
(95% Confidence
Interval)
Arizona Influenza-Associated Respiratory
Failure Rate per 100,000 Person-Years (95%
Confidence Interval)
Arizona, California,
and Washington
Modeled Using US
Federal Region 9
Surveillance Data
(per Primary
Analysis)
Modeled Using
Arizona Specific
Surveillance Data
(per Sensitivity
Analysis)
1-4 0.8 (0.1, 10.6) 0.8 (0.0, 27.3) 1.3 (0.0, 31.2)
5-17 0.3 (0.0, 4.5) 1.7 ( 0.1, 13.1) 0.6 (0.0, 13.5)
18-49 0.8 (0.0, 9.6) 1.1 ( 0.0, 18.7) 1.2 (0.0, 19.3)
50-64 4.0 (0.2, 32.4) 5.7 ( 0.2, 59.7) 4.7 (0.0, 67.8)
65-74 8.7 (0.3, 77.7) 9.8 ( 0.0, 110.4) 11.6 (1.7, 122.8)
75-84 16.5 (1.5, 126.2) 22.5 ( 0.1, 203.7) 22.5 (2.9, 225.1)
>84 28.0 (3.2, 170.4) 33.8 ( 3.0, 244.6) 24.6 (2.5, 282.9)
All 2.7 (0.2, 23.5) 4.1 ( 0.1, 43.4) 3.7 (0.3, 47.7)
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Figure E1. Number of Positive Influenza Tests by Type and Subtype, US Federal
Regions 9 and 10, January 2003- March 2009
Note: US Federal Region 9 includes Arizona, California, Nevada, and Hawaii. US
Federal Region 10 includes Alaska, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington.
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Figure E1. Number of Positive Influenza Tests by Type and Subtype, US Federal Regions 9 and 10, January 2003- March 2009
254x185mm (72 x 72 DPI)
Page 48 of 48 AJRCCM Articles in Press. Published on 15-July-2013 as 10.1164/rccm.201212-2341OC