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Population Change in Europe
Nico van Nimwegen
Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute NIDI
Key Messages• Like climate change, population
change has a major impact on our future:- Population Ageing- Population Diversity- Slowdown of Population Growth
• Demographic trends are persistent• Unity and Diversity: rich variation in
demographic trends in Europe
Europeans have smaller families
• Low fertility in most countries, but with fluctuations
• Impact of economic uncertainty/crises
• How to support families: work-family
balance, family friendly policies.
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
EU-15 NMS-10 EU-25
Total (period) Fertility Rate, 1960-2005
Total Fertility Rate
IcelandTurkeyFranceIreland
AzerbaijanNorway
United KingdomSweden
DenmarkFinland
BelgiumNetherlandsLuxembourg
EU-15other CoE countries
Estoniaall CoE countries
GeorgiaLiechtenstein
AlbaniaFYROM
SwitzerlandCyprusRussia
BulgariaGreeceCroatia
ArmeniaSerbia
Czech RepublicMalta
SloveniaAustria
SpainLithuania
ItalyLatvia
UkraineGermanyPortugal
EU-12RomaniaHungary
PolandSlovakiaMoldovaAndorra
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
TFR 2000/2004 TFR 2005/2009
Longer and Healthier lives• Longevity increases both for women
and men
• The gender gap in longevity is gradually closing but still large in some countries
• Healthy life expectancy increases too
• How to use resources of an ageing population: active ageing
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
EU-15 NMS-10 EU-25
Life expectancy, women, 1960-2005
Life Expectancy Women
FranceSpain
SwitzerlandItaly
LiechtensteinIcelandSweden
EU-15FinlandNorwayAustria
LuxembourgGermanyBelgiumCyprus
NetherlandsPortugal
IrelandMalta
GreeceSlovenia
United KingdomDenmark
Czech RepublicPoland
all CoE countriesCroatiaEstoniaGeorgia
EU-12SlovakiaHungary
LithuaniaLatvia
BulgariaRomaniaArmenia
SerbiaFYROM
AzerbaijanTurkey
other CoE countriesRussia
UkraineMoldova
50 60 70 80 90
E0(f) 2000/2004 E0(f) 2005/2009
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
EU-15 NMS-10 EU-25
Life expectancy, men, 1960-2005
Life Expectancy Men
IcelandSwitzerland
LiechtensteinSweden
ItalyNorwayCyprus
NetherlandsSpainEU-15
United KingdomFranceIreland
GermanyGreece
MaltaAustria
LuxembourgBelgium
DenmarkFinland
PortugalSlovenia
Czech RepublicCroatia
all CoE countriesFYROMPolandTurkeySerbia
AzerbaijanSlovakia
EU-12ArmeniaGeorgiaBulgariaHungaryRomaniaEstonia
LatviaLithuania
other CoE countriesMoldovaUkraineRussia
50 60 70 80 90
E0(m) 2000/2004 E0(m) 2005/2009
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
M T
UK
NL
SE
DK
CY
IE
TR
GR
AT
DE
IT
EU-15
BE
LU
CZ
EU-27
PT
ES
FI
HR
FR
RO
SI
BG
SK
NM S-12
HU
PL
EE
LV
LT
Gender differences in life expectancy (in years), 2005
Europe’s population becomes more diverse
• Migration has become the main engine of population growth in Europe.
• Large fluctuations in migration flows and in the number of migrants.
• Managing migration flows and using the resources of migrants. Integration. Making diversity an asset
Impact of migration
Different migration experiences
Different numbers of migrants
Also in Central and Eastern Europe -Top 10
Foreign born and Non-nationals
LiechtensteinLuxembourgSwitzerland
EstoniaLatvia
AustriaCyprusIreland
SwedenGermanyBelgium
SpainSlovenia
GreeceFrance
NetherlandsUnited Kingdom
IcelandEU27+4Norway
DenmarkPortugal
LithuaniaItaly
MaltaCzech Republic
SlovakiaFinland
HungaryPoland
RomaniaBulgaria
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
% non-nationals % foreign born
Population Growth• World population continues to grow:
7 billion today
• Population growth of Europe is slowing down
• Population decline becomes a reality
• Doing more with fewer people
Milestones of world population growth
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Series1
Series1
wereldbevolking
lage variant
hoge variant
midden variant
mijlpalen
Jaar
x mld.
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
1950-54 1965-69 1980-84 1995-99 2010-2014 2025-2029 2040-2044
least developed regions less developed regionsmore developed regions w orld
Bevolkingsgroeitempo in minder en meer ontwikkelde landen, %
Source: United Nations 2008, medium variant
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
EU-15 NMS-10 EU-25
Total Population Growth EU (per 1000 population)
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Bulgaria
Latvia
Lithuania
Estonia
Hungary
Romania
Germany
Poland
NM S-10
C roatia
Slovak Republic
Netherlands
Italy
Denmark
Slovenia
Austria
C zech Republic
Portugal
Greece
EU-25
Finland
EU-15
United Kingdom
Belgium
France
Sweden
M alta
Luxembourg
C yprus
Turkey
Spain
Ireland
Net migration
Natural increase
Total population increase
Components of Population Growth EU (per 1000 population), 2006
Migration drives Population Growth in Europe
EU-15, 2000/2004
EU-15, 2005/2009
EU-12, 2000/2004
EU-12, 2005/2009
other CoE countries, 2000/2004
other CoE countries, 2005/2009
total, 2000/2004
total, 2005/2009
-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6
natural increase net migration
Europa, Bevolkingsgroei, NUTS2 regios, 2000-2007
Source: Eurostat.
Europa, Potentiële Beroepsbevolking, NUTS2 regios, 2000-2007
;
-5 of minder -5 tot 0 0 tot 5 5 tot 10 10 of meer
Bevolkingsgroei naar gemeente (%) 2007-2025
Population ageing• Ageing most advanced in Europe• Population of working age becomes
smaller • Higher labour force participation:
better use of human resources (unemployed, women, migrants, elderly)
• Improve skills: education, life long learning
• Training also needed as the work force is ageing
Europa, bevolking 65+, NUTS2 regios, 2000-2007
Source: Eurostat.
Demographic Pressure
FranceSweden
DenmarkItaly
GermanyBelgium
United KingdomNorwayFinlandGreece
PortugalTurkeyIceland
NetherlandsIrelandCroatiaAustria
MontenegroSerbia
EstoniaSwitzerland
SpainLuxembourg
HungaryLatvia
BulgariaLithuaniaSlovenia
MaltaRomania
CyprusLiechtenstein
Czech RepublicFYROMPoland
AzerbaijanArmeniaRussia
SlovakiaAndorraMoldova
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
young age dependency ratio old age dependency ratio
Een demografische omslag
• De bevolkingsexplosie van de 20e eeuw is voorbij
• Wereldbevolkingsgroei nog fors maar dalend
• Europese bevolkingsgroei gering• Nederlandse bevolking groeit nog
door …• … maar steeds meer gebieden in
Europa en Nederland krijgen te maken met bevolkingskrimp
Vooruitzichten (1)• na de (20e) eeuw van de bevolkingsgroei is er nu de (21e) eeuw van de vergrijzing en de urbanisatie.
• basisoorzaken van de vergrijzing zijn structureel;lage vruchtbaarheid, langere levensduur
• lagere bevolkingsgroei brengt vergrijzing mee.
•vergrijzing is grotendeels “man made” (en een succesverhaal)
Vooruitzichten (2)
• migratie biedt geen oplossing voor de vergrijzing.
• einde van de bevolkingsgroei komt in steeds meer landen in zicht.
• bevolkingskrimp wordt de nieuwe realiteit in ieder geval in Europa en Nederland.
Vooruitzichten (2)
• migratie biedt geen oplossing voor de vergrijzing.
• einde van de bevolkingsgroei komt in steeds meer landen in zicht.
• bevolkingskrimp wordt de nieuwe realiteit in ieder geval in Europa en Nederland.
Bevolkingskrimp
• Uneven distribution of population growth: decline and growth side by side.
• Especially smaller municipalities are vulnerable.
• High density areas grow. Low density areas decline (Matthew principle).
Bevolkingskrimp: probeem of oplossing?
• Pessimist view: Doomsday scenarios. Population decline-economic decline-outflow-more decline-poverty.
• Optimist view: Pink cloud. Population decline, more space, better environment, less congestion (traffic jams).
• Reality check. Population decline adds to the challenges of population ageing.
Housing • Number of households continues to grow,
but not everywhere … • Lower population pressure could help to
relieve pressures on housing markets in cases of high pressure (low supply, high housing demand).
• Decline works positive…• … but decline works negative when the
pressure on the housing market is low (lots of houses, low demand).
• Decline leads to empty houses
Infrastructure and Space
• Decline can aggrevate the decrease in facilities.
• Low level of facilities can trigger further decline.
• Use of space: behaviour important• Small is beautiful?
Economy
• Working age population will peak in 2010 at 10,1 million persons.
• Slow decline to 9,8 million in 2025• Higher labour force participation and
extension of working life to cope with decline?
• Labour force participation of women, older workers, migrants?
• Ageing of the work force.
Decline and Vulnerability
• Decline can aggrevate vulnerability.• Weaker neighbourhoods, cities,
regions have difficulty of keeping their inhabitants.
• Can this a downward spiral be broken?
Coping or Fighting?
• Fighting decline not very successful (difficult to turn the trend around).
• Coping with decline (try to make the best of it) is long term issue.
• No generic, “one size fits all” policies• Enable regional and local diversity.• Flexibility in spatial (long term)
policy.• Decline as challenge to increase
quality?
Decline and Population Policy?
• Together with population ageing population decline makes for a real demographic turnaround.
• Do we need a population policy? Is this feasible?
• Demographic solutions are limited. • Most Dutch prefer population decline
over population growth ( …but not in their backyard ...)
• End of population growth? Less people, more wellbeing?