POPULATION

Created by Ms. McFadden

Thomas Malthus

-English economist and demographer

1798: “Principal of Population”Positive Population checks - wars, disease,

famine

Negative Population checks- family planning, later marriage, celebacy

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Population

FoodResources

“Doomsday”

However, according to his predictions none of us would be here today.

Things he did not take into account:

Direct Substitution- natural gas for oil

Tecnological Substitution- innovative farming machinery, Green Revolution, genetic engineering

Lifestyle substitution- value of people are changing, want more than basic necessities

Recycling- cuts back on resource consumption

Still some environmentalists (Paul Ehrlic, William Catton) believe we will reach a doomsday if nothing is done to control population.

• 15 people are born every second• This means almost 1 billion are born

every year• Today the population is 6.3 billion +• By 2050 this is expected to double.

The Problem…

• William Catton coined the term “carrying capacity”. This is defined as the amount of people that the land/resources can support. This is why doomsday may still happen----we are exceeding our carrying capacity!!!!!!!

Death rate is decreasing due to: cures/eradication for diseases like smallpox and malaria, ORT, improvements in communications/transportationAs a result….there are more people on the same area of land!

Where are the population problems?

• Developing/LDCs/Third World countries

• India, Most African countries, Malaysia

• Stage 2 of the DTM

• Haven’t had technological changes, lifestyle changes or economic improvement.

• Result = Increasing stress on these environments

How can these populations be controlled?

EducationEquality for womenFamily planning

A model for the world….CHINA

Present Population = 1.3 billion (20% of the world’s population)

Problem – only 11% of China’s land is arable and this has already been in cultivation for many years.

Therefore, the land can not support many more people than what exists now.

The Government of China predicted this and issued a birth control policy in 1971 called “wan xi shao”

This means “later, longer, fewer”

Later marriages- mid 20’s for women and late 20’s for men

Longer intervals between births- 3-4 years between children

Fewer children- 2 in urban, 3 in rural

1979-One Child Policy-Couples are given “planned birth certificates” (permission

to have a child)-Used advertising campaigns-Spys in workplace and community-Strong pressure to confirm Rewards Punishments-free medical care -no medical care-increased wage and bonuses -decreased wage- free vacations for sterilizations/abortions -forced sterilizations/abortions-preferential housing-free daycare -benefits cease -free tuition for children -no university acceptance -extra pension income -decreased pension-guaranteed job when graduate -pay back financial benefits from first

child-extra maternity leave

Demographic Transition Model

•File •File history •File links

                                                                                                                        

ChinaDemography.svg (SVG file, nominally 874 × 591 pixels, file size: 30 KB)

China’s Population

Problems with this policy:

Infringement of Human rights

Sexual Discrimination- preference to male children has lead to female infanticide and abandonment, upset sex ratio(300 000 more boys than girls are born in China each year), “little emperors”.

Possible labour shortage; not enough children to support parents and grandparents.

Personal/Emotional Distress-from forced sterilizations/abortions, many couples want a boy and a girl

80% of China’s population is rural so extra hands are needed to help with rice/farm production.

Couples living together who aren’t married/having children

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Relaxing the policy:

• Rural areas, couples are now allowed to have another child after 4 years if the first is a girl

• Cash bonuses higher for couples with female baby

• Girls can now support parents in old age and have jobs and possessions handed down to them.

• Old age pension is increased for compliance• Ultrasounds to find out sex is prohibited

However, still amazing….

• Birth rate mid 60’s: 44 per 1000

• Birth rate by 1980: 18 per 1000

• Birth rate today: 14 per thousand

No other country has decreased their birth rate so successfully or quickly.