Population Environment Sustainability - Five Thought-experiments

8/9/2019 Population Environment Sustainability - Five Thought-experiments

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Thresholds - Planetary boundaries - Tipping-points?

The efects o imposing eradications and dismantlementsupon multiple unctioning components o complex systems and

their potential implications

Collapse?

Hubris?

Systems ailures?

Potential implications?

Five Thought - Experiments


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Albert Einstein Just as Albert Einstein once utilized“thought-experiments” to help clarifyuestions and concepts in his areas of

study!

"e "ill consider here

five brief thought-experiments

to help contemplate and assess

our planet#s functioning biospheric machinery and its

limited population “carrying capacity” for humans$


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Exactly ho" much damage! "astes! obliterations! and eradications can beinflicted upon A%& functioning complex system and expect that system to

continue to function as it has al"ays done in the past'

The (uestion to be Tested


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)ost people readily understand that“supplies of food” or “"ater” or

“resources” might impose limits to the

size of a population$

*n this presentation! ho"ever! "e are going to consider several thought-experiments that underscore other real-"orld “limiting factors” + that are at least

as dangerous and important + but "hich are less instinctively appreciated$


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Earths planetary carryingcapacity ! or example! is not

solely a matter o "running-out-o suppositions

such as ‘runnin

g-ou t-of ’

f ood, or wa ter,

or resources


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,iospheric and functioning natural systems! for

example! have limits

to the degrees of eradications! damage! and "astes thatthey can suffer and still continue to function


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imply posing the

uestion instantly

the only planetary life-support machinery

so far .no"n to exist any"here in the universe

triggers insights into Earth

systems "hich comprise


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*magine! for instance! large-scale eradications of

the multiple and complex interacting systems of

or an automobile,

or an airplane,

or a computer system,

multiple body systems

of a vertebrate organism'

a space vehicle,

or the


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/et us begin by trying to imagine a team of

astronauts in a space vehicle if they "ere to

0cannibalize 123 of their navigation and propulsion systems!

0degrade 453 of their 672 scrubbers!

0destroy 183 of their heat shields!0delete 553 of their computer codes!

0413 of their oxygen production systems!

and a random evisceration of multiple other

portions of their craft's life-support machinery.

along "ith 493 of their "aste recycling and "ater-purification capabilities!

Thought + Experiment %umber 7ne


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%o rational astronauts! of course! "ould ever

dream of inflicting such damage

upon the vehicle that sustains their lives in space


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T h i s i s n’ t g o i

n g t o w o r k

o u t s o we l l i

s i t?

e$g$ - 0583 of the steering,

…413 of the carburetor,

…193 of the transmission, …513 of the electrical,

…423 of the brakes,

…:53 of the tires,

…2;3 of the ales,

…1


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Thought + Experiment %umber T"o

"nfortunately, other impacts

are also occurring -

At the same time! this individual also simultaneously >each day? adds

more and more >and ever-accumulating ? contaminants to his vehicle#s

0radiator!

0 bra.e and transmission fluid

0 battery ,

0engine oil ,

and

0gasoline


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%ot so bright! is he'

doesn't function anymore…

#nd then suppose that this individual cannot understand why

his automobile, "hich @has al"ays "or.ed in the past!@


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$o we know anyone who seems to treat


so far known to eist anywhere in the universe

in a similar way?


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%o rational astronauts "ould ever dream of inflicting such

damage upon the vehicle that sustains their lives in space!

and the rest of us would never dream of

inflicting such damage upon our automobiles.


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so ar #no$n to existany$here in the uni%erse

,ut "e someho" seem to suppose that "e can inflict such damage

upon the ONLY planetary

lie-support machinery

and to assume that it should unfailingly continue to

function as it has always done in the past


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% e x t

6ontemplating biophysical and functional limits to Earth#s

planetary 6arrying 6apacity

- an airplane analogy as a thought-eperiment -

Thought + Experiment %umber Three

…in f licted on a world wide scale b y a mod

ern ind u striali %ed h uma

nit y

with a pro s pero u s standard o f li vin g f or all…

*n this “thought-experiment” "e "ill employ an airplane analogy to contemplate the

effects and implications of massive! planetary-scale eradications! damage! and "astes$


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uppose that you and your family are boarding an

airplane for a long trip and that the plane is full

uppose in this initial situation that "e

imagine a plane that has enough

>almost! at least?

food and fuel and resources

for its passengers!

but another problem begins to assert itself thatseriously threatens both safety and survival



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As your flight proceeds! you notice that all of the passengers are! to some extent! physically-removing or damaging ever-increasing portions of the plane itself


e$g$ - engine ,

"ings ,

fuselage ,

fuel pumps ,

navigation ,

electrical

"indo"s

steering ,

etc.

0 and some economic entities are conducting vast and rapid

dismantlements on a vehicle-wide and industriali%ed scale


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6ontemplating these activities

causes us to as.

&hat percentage

of the plane’s comple and interacting component parts can be

endlessly and cumulatively( removed and

still continue to function?

!ur reason for bringing this up, of course, is that the

=vehicle’ that we are treating this way today is our planet


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Bhat if the passengers and economic activities combined remove

5; - 4; - 1;3 of multiple systems'


7r of all ! many! or most

such systems'

7r of even one such system'


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uppose that some intelligent passengers become "orried and

initiate and promote vehicle-"ide conservation programs


And their efforts see. to fully protect and preserve

at least 9;3 samplings

of as many of the plane#s parts and components as possible


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The problem! of course! is that

goals of 9;3 conservation


contemplate >and may conceivably permit? 1;3 destruction

Th i s i s n’ t

go i n g to wo r k

o u t so well i s

i t?


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=vehicle’ that we are treating this way today is our planet

0 t"elve percent sample sections from one wing 0

0 f our t e e n p e r ce nt of t he ca b in 00 s a v i ng 9 ; 3

o f t h e f u s e l a

g e

and

0 a nine percent sample of three engine parts 0

uppose that their goals envision


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%otice that not only does this thought-experiment

po"erfully argue that 9;3 conservation goals are not

enough


,ut also that even seemingly - small

percentage dismantlements in some components

might trigger calamitous

and irreversible outcomes


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entity that we are treating this way today is our planet

&hich is home to the 7%/& planetary life-support machinery

so far known to eist anywhere in the universe


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% e x t

aving 9;3 samples of complexly-interactinganatomical and physiological vertebrate systems

Thought + Experiment %umber Four


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*magine that medical providers in your local hospital decide that

rising medical costs force them to alter their standards of care



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#s a result, they develop new protocols that focus on a

less-costly program of setting aside and conserving

representative 9;3 samplings

of each patient’s component body parts and systems



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For individual patients! these ne" economically-induced protocols

may not ensure a complete cure for his or her disease >"hich is too costly?



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,ut "ill instead attempt to save! "here possible! various 4! 1! or 9;3

representative samplings of the patient#s body parts such as

half an artery and one third of a vein!

some "hite blood cells!

a portion of one elbo" ! 13 from one of the shoulder blades!

part of one eyelid!

a portion of one earlobe!

9C3 of the spinal cord!and

one of the heart chambers


This isn’t going to work out so well is it?


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*n addition! the ne" policies "ill also endeavor to save! "here

possible! additional small representative samplings of the patient#s


pancreas !

.nee!

brain !

muscles !

.idneys !

hair follicles!

and

connective tissue

7bviously! an intelligent person "ould immediately realize

the inadeuacy of such an approach - right'


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the calamitous! mista.en! and non-cautious nature of such foolishly-

permissive policies of eradications! damage! "astes! and dismantlements$

6learly! in a space vehicle setting!

or involving one#s automobile!

or on an airplane! or in a

hospital! "e immediately see


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)et these seem to be precisely the policies that we are applying to our

planet and its functioning systems which comprise the only planetary

life-support machinery so far known to eist anywhere in the universe


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so far known to eist

anywhere in the universe

Do "e! therefore! .no"

anyone "ho seems to treat

in a similar "ay'


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%o rational astronauts "ould ever dream of inflicting such

damage upon the vehicle that sustains their lives in space!

and the rest of us would never dream of

inflicting such damage upon our automobiles.


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so ar #no$n to existany$here in the uni%erse

,ut "e someho" seem to suppose that "e can inflict such damage

upon the ONLY planetary

lie-support machinery

and to assume that it should unfailingly continue to

function as it has always done in the past


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*t is not an exact analogy! of course! but thin. of the moist

tropical forests functioning as the “lungs of the "orld$”

everal additional thoughts concerning

Eac h da y t he p ho t

os y n t hes is o f a l l t

he i r m i l l io ns o f p l

a n ts

a nd t rees re mo ve

6 7 2 f ro m t he a t mo

s p he re a nd re lease

7 2



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*f "e "ere to save 9;3 of a person#s lung tissuesand destroy the remaining 1;3!

could "e reasonably expect the person to even survive!

much less to continue to function normally'

*s saving one lung and one kidney enough?



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7ne lung "ould amount to 2;3 and one .idney is 2;3$

*s that sufficient to maintain even a suboptimal level of physiological function?

!r does a + loss of each system constitute

a new and highly precarious condition?



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*s it sufficient if "e save some

of the endocrine glands'

*f a person loses one lung and one .idneyand half of their endocrine glands!

"hat happens to their

overall prognosis'



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Be probably need to save at least fifty

percent of Earth#s natural systems

and to the extent that the

above analogies hold!

that fifty percent may not be enough.



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emember our airplane analogy'

uppose that "e slightly alter it as follo"s0$

Thought + Experiment %umber Five


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uppose that you and your family are boarding

an airplane for a long trip,

and you

notice a line

of more and more

and more

and more

endlessly boarding your flight

and cro"ding onto your plane


passengers


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This begins to become uite unsettling! of course + since things like

airplanes - > and elevators and buses and bridges and planets ? - have

carrying capacities

"hich are limits to their abilities to accommodate passengers!

or damages! "astes! "eights! loads! and eradications! etc$

and still continue to function



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Almost all pilots and aeronautical engineers! for instance! "ould immediately recognize

that there are limits to the numbers and combined "eights of all the plane#s passengers!

luggage! contents! and damages and "astes that their vehicles can accommodate$



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emember that your family is on your plane "ith you and it is

a very long trip and you are aboard the 7%/& such passenger

vehicle .no"n to exist any"here in the universe'

&ould you sit in silence and allow the ravaging and

dismantlement to proceed without interruption?

Bo u ld n# t yo u e x pec t

yo u r e lec ted re p rese n ta t i ves a nd Fo u

r na l is ts a nd

ma Fo r ne "s pa pe rs to

g i ve t hese d is ma n t le m

e n ts a nd t he i r i m p l ica t io ns as

m uc h co ve rage as t he

i r ce le b r i t y goss i p s to

r ies '



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T he se ! pe n

- c o u r se wa re

/ o we r / o i n t

s

a n d 0 o r t he s

e 1 e c u t i ve - s

u m ma r y G D F

s

http://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacy


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2or more information on this, see this ppt and0or this pdf

http://www.scribd.com/doc/118659074/Population-Carrying-Capacity-and-Limiting-Factors-ppt-versionhttp://media.wix.com/ugd/5b4b38_8a2e61256aca42579efe896643b009c4.pdfhttp://media.wix.com/ugd/5b4b38_8a2e61256aca42579efe896643b009c4.pdfhttp://www.scribd.com/doc/118659074/Population-Carrying-Capacity-and-Limiting-Factors-ppt-version


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2or more information on this, see this ppt and0or this pdf

https://www.scribd.com/doc/65245833/ppt-4-Thin-films-Earth-s-atmosphere-and-seashttp://media.wix.com/ugd/5b4b38_8a2e61256aca42579efe896643b009c4.pdfhttp://media.wix.com/ugd/5b4b38_8a2e61256aca42579efe896643b009c4.pdfhttps://www.scribd.com/doc/65245833/ppt-4-Thin-films-Earth-s-atmosphere-and-seas


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F o r mo r e i n f o r ma t i o n o n t hi s , s e e t hi s p p t a nd / o r t hi s p d f

http://en.calameo.com/read/0006765197e14be48b510http://en.calameo.com/read/0006765197e14be48b510http://en.calameo.com/read/0006765197e14be48b510http://en.calameo.com/read/0006765197e14be48b510http://en.calameo.com/read/0006765197e14be48b510http://en.calameo.com/read/0006765197e14be48b510http://en.calameo.com/read/0006765197e14be48b510http://en.calameo.com/read/0006765197e14be48b510http://en.calameo.com/read/0006765197e14be48b510http://en.calameo.com/read/0006765197e14be48b510http://media.wix.com/ugd/5b4b38_f7861327df98424cbe9d11bbcdc62ba0.pdfhttp://media.wix.com/ugd/5b4b38_f7861327df98424cbe9d11bbcdc62ba0.pdfhttp://media.wix.com/ugd/5b4b38_f7861327df98424cbe9d11bbcdc62ba0.pdfhttp://media.wix.com/ugd/5b4b38_f7861327df98424cbe9d11bbcdc62ba0.pdfhttp://media.wix.com/ugd/5b4b38_f7861327df98424cbe9d11bbcdc62ba0.pdfhttp://media.wix.com/ugd/5b4b38_f7861327df98424cbe9d11bbcdc62ba0.pdfhttp://media.wix.com/ugd/5b4b38_f7861327df98424cbe9d11bbcdc62ba0.pdfhttp://media.wix.com/ugd/5b4b38_f7861327df98424cbe9d11bbcdc62ba0.pdfhttp://media.wix.com/ugd/5b4b38_f7861327df98424cbe9d11bbcdc62ba0.pdfhttp://en.calameo.com/read/0006765197e14be48b510


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/ower/oints and Executive summary pdfs for

academia and policymakers are accessible here

http://www.scribd.com/collections/3655003/Population-for-Academia-and-Policymakershttp://www.scribd.com/collections/3655003/Population-for-Academia-and-Policymakers


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&orkshop /ower/oints and

pdf Executive summaries are

accessible here

http://en.calameo.com/accounts/676519http://en.calameo.com/accounts/676519


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Did you .no" that the 6aptain and 7fficers of the passenger liner Titanic

received si separate and specific warnings of ice during the C< hours preceding their ship#s collision "ith the iceberg that san. it'

They "ent ahead and sailed their ship and

its passengers right into the iceberg

# n d w ha t d i d

t he y do?

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Population Environment Sustainability - Five Thought-experiments