Population Forecasts - Center for Business and Economic Research

Prepared by

PPPooopppuuulllaaatttiiiooonnn FFFooorrreeecccaaassstttsss:::

LLLooonnnggg---TTTeeerrrmmm PPPrrrooojjjeeeccctttiiiooonnnsss

fffooorrr CCClllaaarrrkkk CCCooouuunnntttyyy,,, NNNeeevvvaaadddaaa

222000111222---222000555000

222000111222

Constant I. Tra, Ph.D., Associate Director

Christopher Drury, M.A., Graduate Assistant

Center for Business and Economic Research

University of Nevada, Las Vegas

Regional Transportation Commission of Southern Nevada, Southern Nevada Water

Authority, Southern Nevada Regional Planning Coalition, and members of the

Forecasting Group

June 18, 2012

Prepared for

Prepared by

Constant I. Tra, Ph.D.

Christopher Drury, M.A.

The

Center

for

Business

and

Economic

Research

University of Nevada, Las Vegas 4505 S. Maryland Parkway

Las Vegas, Nevada 89154-6002 (702) 895-3191

[email protected] http://cber.unlv.edu

Copyright©2012, CBER

PPPooopppuuulllaaatttiiiooonnn FFFooorrreeecccaaassstttsss:::

LLLooonnnggg---TTTeeerrrmmm PPPrrrooojjjeeeccctttiiiooonnnsss

fffooorrr CCClllaaarrrkkk CCCooouuunnntttyyy,,, NNNeeevvvaaadddaaa

222000111222---222000555000


University of Nevada, Las Vegas i

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary ...................................................................................................... 1

I. Introduction ........................................................................................................... 5

II. Comparison of REMI Models: Current and Previous Year ............................. 7

III. Recalibrating the Model ..................................................................................... 10

A. Adjustment of the national GDP forecast .................................................... 11

B. Employment adjustment ............................................................................... 11

C. Transportation and infrastructure improvements ..................................... 14

D. Amenity adjustments ..................................................................................... 15

E. Rebasing the population forecast .................................................................. 16

IV. Analysis of the Economic and Demographic Forecast .................................... 16

A. Population ....................................................................................................... 17

B. Employment .................................................................................................... 19

C. Gross regional product .................................................................................. 21

V. Comparing Current Forecast with Previous Years of the Forecast ............... 23

VI. Risks to the Forecast ........................................................................................... 24

VII. Conclusion ........................................................................................................... 25

Appendix: Detailed Report Tables ............................................................................ 27


University of Nevada, Las Vegas ii

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Clark County Final Population Forecast: 2000-2050 ......................................3

Table 2: Employment Growth Rates for Clark County before Adjustment ..............12

Table 3: Model Job Adjustments (in 000s) for 2010 and 2011 ....................................13

Table 4: Population History, REMI Forecast, and Rebased Forecast ........................18

Table 5: Employment History and Forecasts ................................................................20

Table 6: Gross Regional Product History and Forecasts .............................................22

Table A1: Out-of-the-Box Clark County Population and Population Growth

Forecasts from REMI Models LHY2009 and LHY2008 ...............................28

Table A2: Detailed Final Population Forecast: 2000-2050 ..........................................29

Table A3: Economic Forecast After Employment, Hotel, Amenity, and Transit

Adjustments .......................................................................................................30

Table A4: Employment....................................................................................................32

Table A5: Employment II ...............................................................................................35

Table A6: Gross Regional Product .................................................................................37

Table A7: Income .............................................................................................................39

Table A8: Population and Labor Force .........................................................................42

Table A9: Demographics .................................................................................................44


University of Nevada, Las Vegas iii

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Clark County Population Forecasts: REMI Out-of-the-Box LHY2009 and

LHY2008: 2012-2035 ..........................................................................................9

Figure 2: Clark County Population-Growth-Rate Forecasts: REMI Out-of-the-Box

LHY2009 and LHY2008: 2012-2035 .................................................................9

Figure 3: Clark County Historic Population-Growth-Rate Forecasts: 2012-2035 ....24


University of Nevada, Las Vegas 1

Executive Summary

Each year, the Regional Transportation Commission of Southern Nevada (RTC), the

Southern Nevada Water Authority (SNWA), the Southern Nevada Regional Planning

Coalition (SNRPC), the Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) at the

University of Nevada, Las Vegas, and a group of community demographers and analysts

work together to provide a long-term forecast of economic and demographic variables

influencing Clark County's population growth. The primary goal is to develop a long-

term forecast of the Clark County population that is consistent with the structural

economic characteristics of the county. Toward this end, we employ a general-

equilibrium demographic and economic model developed by Regional Economic Models,

Inc. (REMI), specifically for Clark County.

The model recalibration incorporates the most recent available information

regarding the national gross domestic product forecast, local employment growth, local

transit investment, and an amenity factor representing negative externalities from local

growth. The resulting long-term forecast predicts positive population growth throughout

the range of the forecast. By 2035, we predict that Clark County’s population will reach

approximately 2.85 million. By 2050, we predict that it will reach nearly 3.3 million.

Table 1 summarizes the population forecast. We anticipate that population growth

will be moderate in the near future. The population in Clark County is predicted to grow

at a rate of 0.8 percent in 2012. Despite short-term economic uncertainties and model

difficulties, we note that this forecast is intended for medium- to long-term planning

purposes. In the medium term, the population growth rate vacillates around 2.5 percent as

the Southern Nevada economy continues to recover. In the long term, population growth

begins to taper off as the maturing economy attracts fewer economic migrants. By 2025,



annual population growth has declined to 1.3 percent. By 2050, the growth reaches 0.8

percent, the projected1 long-term national population growth rate. This represents a long-

term convergence to the national average annual population growth rate.

As is typical of any forecast, there are potential risks which could lead to either

over- or underestimated population growth in the short run. The principal risk to our

forecast is the recovery of the Southern Nevada economy in the short term. The

assumption underlying this forecast is that the local economy will continue to show signs

of recovery in 2012. To the extent that the short-term economic outlook differs, the short-

run forecasts will differ. We believe, however, that these risks tend to arise from short-

run uncertainty; whereas, our forecasts are primarily meant to be long-run planning tools.

1Source: http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/summarytables.html



Table 1: Clark County Final Population Forecast 2000 - 2050

Year

Population

Forecast

Change in Population

Forecast

Growth in Population

(Percent)

2000 1,428,689* 107,513 8.1%

2001 1,498,278* 69,589 4.9%

2002 1,578,332* 80,054 5.3%

2003 1,641,529* 63,197 4.0%

2004 1,747,025* 105,496 6.4%

2005 1,815,700* 68,675 3.9%

2006 1,912,654* 96,954 5.3%

2007 1,996,542* 83,888 4.4%

2008 1,986,145* -10,397 -0.5%

2009 2,006,347* 20,202 1.0%

2010 1,951,269** -55,078 -2.7%

2011 1,966,630* 15,361 0.8%

2012 1,982,000*** 15,370 0.8%

2013 2,002,000*** 20,000 1.0%

2014 2,057,000 55,000 2.7%

2015 2,112,000 55,000 2.7%

2016 2,167,000 55,000 2.6%

2017 2,220,000 53,000 2.4%

2018 2,274,000 54,000 2.4%

2019 2,321,000 47,000 2.1%

2020 2,365,000 44,000 1.9%

2021 2,405,000 40,000 1.7%

2022 2,443,000 38,000 1.6%

2023 2,478,000 35,000 1.4%

2024 2,512,000 34,000 1.4%

2025 2,545,000 33,000 1.3%

2026 2,576,000 31,000 1.2%

2027 2,608,000 32,000 1.2%

2028 2,638,000 30,000 1.2%

2029 2,669,000 31,000 1.2%

2030 2,699,000 30,000 1.1%

2031 2,729,000 30,000 1.1%

2032 2,759,000 30,000 1.1%

2033 2,789,000 30,000 1.1%

2034 2,818,000 29,000 1.0%

2035 2,848,000 30,000 1.1%

2040 2,999,000 30,000 1.0%

2045 3,149,000 30,000 1.0%

2050 3,291,000 27,000 0.8%

*SNRPC consensus population estimate.

** 2010 U.S. Census.

***CBER 2012 Economic Outlook forecast.



Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the members of the Population Forecasting Group for

comments on earlier versions of this report; and Rennae Daneshvary for editing the

report.



I. Introduction

Each year, the Regional Transportation Commission (RTC), the Southern Nevada Water

Authority (SNWA), the Southern Nevada Regional Planning Coalition (SNRPC), the

Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) at the University of Nevada, Las

Vegas, and a group of community demographers and analysts work together to provide a

long-term forecast of economic and demographic variables influencing Clark County.

The primary goal is to develop a long-term forecast of the Clark County population that

is consistent with the structural economic characteristics of the county. Toward this end,

we employ a general-equilibrium demographic and economic model developed by

Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI), specifically for Clark County.

The REMI model is a state-of-the-art econometric forecasting model that accounts

for dynamic feedbacks between economic and demographic variables. Special features

allow the user to update the model to include the most current economic information.

CBER calibrates the model using information on recent local employment levels, the

most recent national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast, spending on local capital

projects, and adjustments for amenities related to local population growth.

The model employed divides Nevada into five regions: Clark County; Nye

County; Lincoln County; Washoe County; and the remaining counties, which are

combined to form a fifth region. These regions are modeled using the U.S. economy as a

backdrop. The model contains over 100 economic and demographic relationships that are

carefully constructed to concisely represent the Clark County economy. The model

includes equations to account for migration and trade between Nevada counties and other

states and counties in the country.



The demographic and economic data used to construct the model begin in 1990,

the most important of which include the aggregate totals of employment, labor force, and

population. The economic data for the most recent version of the model (REMI PI+ v1.3)

are consistent with the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). The

most recent data for REMI PI+ v1.3 are from 2009 because the Bureau of Labor Statistics

(BLS) personal-income data are reported with a two-year lag. Over the years, the

availability of the income data has been the key in setting the last year of history in the

model.

The REMI model is the best model available for describing how economies

interact geographically.2 These interactions may take place within a single economy

(such as the interaction between house-price growth and employment growth in Clark

County) or between two economies (such as the interaction between Southern Nevada

and Southern California). These and over 100 other interactions contained within the

model are too complex to consider modeling on our own. Rather, we turn to the REMI

model because it has a solid foundation in economic theory and the principles of general-

equilibrium-based growth distribution, yet it still offers the flexibility required to model a

regional economy like Clark County.

To guarantee that the most current data are used in the forecast, we make a series

of adjustments to the model. In this way, we ensure that the forecast model includes the

best available information at the time the forecast is made. First, the model’s national

GDP forecast is updated using the latest available national forecast from the University of

Michigan’s Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics (RSQE). The second

adjustment updates the model with the employment figures from the Nevada Department

2 See Schwer, R. K. and D. Rickman (1995), “A comparison of the multipliers of IMPLAN, REMI and

RIMS II: Benchmarking ready-made models for comparison,” The Annals of Regional Science.



of Employment, Training, and Rehabilitation (DETR). Next, we include planned new

investment in public infrastructure using information from RTC. The fourth adjustment

accounts for the potential secondary effects of population growth on the quality of life in

Clark County. Lastly, we rebase the population forecast to the most recent population

estimate for Clark County available from SNRPC.

In the following section, we first examine the changes in the REMI model from

last year’s model. Following that, in Section III, we present sequentially the changes we

make to update the model and tailor it to local information. In Section IV, we present the

population forecast and give a brief discussion of the economic environment surrounding

the forecast. In Section V, we compare the population growth forecast with previous

years’ forecasts. We conclude with a discussion of the risks to the forecast.

II. Comparison of REMI Models: Current and Previous Year

Over the years, we have compared the most recent out-of-the-box REMI models, that is,

the current forecast before any model recalibrations are made, with corresponding out-of-

the-box forecasts from the previous models. This gives us the opportunity to examine

how the new model differs from the previous versions and to explore the basis of these

differences.

The most recent data used to develop this year’s model are from 2009. Thus, we

refer to the current model as last historical year 2009 (LHY2009) and the previous model

as last historical year 2008 (LHY2008).

Each year the REMI staff and users discuss the workings of the model and

propose changes for improvement. Based on research findings, each year’s model

incorporates improvements in addition to the inclusion of more recent data. The new

model, identified as PI+ v1.3, offers one major improvement. The model includes a



migration equation. The domestic net economic migration response to changes in relative

employment opportunity was last estimated in 2002, using 1972-2000 data and a standard

Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression approach. The new equation is estimated using

an Instrumental Variables (IV) approach, and the data are extended to include the 2001-

2008 period. These model updates and the new data history for 2009 lead to the

differences in the out-of-the-box population forecast between the LHY2009 model and

the LHY2008 model.

Figures 1 and 2 compare the LHY2009 and LHY2008 population forecasts from

the out-of-the-box models, i.e., without any updating for migration, employment,

infrastructure projects, the amenity factor, or the national GDP forecast.3 The out-of-the-

box population forecast arising from the LHY2009 model predicts lower population

levels for 2011 through 2035 than the LHY2008 model. With regards to population

levels, the difference between the two forecasts is relatively small in 2011 but gets larger

in the later years of the forecast. By 2035, the out-of-the-box forecasted population in the

LHY2009 model is nearly 270,000 people lower than the LHY2008 model.

3 The detailed out-of-the-box results through 2050 appear in Table A1 of the Appendix.



Figure 1: Clark County Population Forecasts: REMI Out-of-the-Box LHY2009 and

LHY2008: 2012-2035

Note: Out-of-the-box refers to the model prior to recalibration. These numbers are not the final forecast.

Figure 2: Clark County Population-Growth-Rate Forecasts: REMI Out-of-the-Box

LHY2009 and LHY2008: 2012-2035




The lower out-of-the-box forecasted population levels from the LHY2009 model are due

to the additional economic history from 2009, which was a year of economic recession

for Southern Nevada. As a result of the 2009 economic recession data, the LHY2009

model has fewer economic migrants and a lower population in 2009. This translates to

the lower out-of-the-box population forecasts for the LHY2009 model compared to the

LHY2008 model.

III. Recalibrating the Model

County-level personal income is only available with a two-year lag. As a result, the

REMI model also has a two-year lag with the most recent historical data from 2009 for

the current model, PI+ v1.3, released in 2011. To bring the model up to date, we update

available pertinent model information, including the most recent national GDP forecast,

more recent employment figures, spending on capital projects, and adjustments for

disamenities related to population growth to reflect local information in the forecast. We

describe each update in turn.

In previous years, we made an adjustment to future hotel employment based on

local expectations of hotel rooms that will be added in the near future. This ensures that

the model includes a good short-term forecast of new hotel investment and employment.

This year, the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA) projects that

1,052 new hotel/motel rooms will be added to the local room stock by the end of 2012.

Assuming a jobs-to-room multiplier of 1.6, this would imply roughly 1,700 new jobs for

the accommodation sector. However, the REMI model’s baseline employment forecast

for the accommodation industry already predicts 3,000 additional jobs in the year 2012

and 2013. As a result, we did not make an additional adjustment for new hotel rooms.

The current forecast relies on the REMI model’s growth forecast for the accommodation



sector in the near term. The REMI model’s baseline employment growth forecast for the

accommodation industry is roughly 2 percent in the years 2012 and 2013, respectively.

A. Adjustment of the national GDP forecast

The REMI model relies on a baseline national GDP forecast from the University of

Michigan’s Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics (RSQE). The current REMI

model, PI+ v1.3, utilizes the June 2011 GDP forecast from RSQE. We adjust the model’s

national GDP forecast using the March 2012 national GDP forecast from RSQE. Overall,

we adjust the national GDP components downward by about $470 billion in 2011 and

$600 billion in 2012. The adjusted national forecast is used to generate a new baseline

forecast for Clark County. The baseline forecast is then used for the subsequent

adjustments.

B. Employment adjustment

One of the most noteworthy updates we make to the REMI model is the employment

adjustment. The industry-level employment data used by REMI are the sum of the BLS

wage and salary estimates for Clark County and REMI’s BLS-based estimate of the

number of proprietors. The most recent historical year in the model data is 2009.

However, more recent wage and salary employment data are available from the Nevada

DETR for 2010 and 2011. Thus, we update the model to account for the more recent

information.

The latest growth rates for the out-of-the-box REMI-model forecasts and recent

DETR estimates are shown in Table 2 for 2010 and 2011. The actual growth rates from

DETR differ substantially from the REMI out-of-the-box forecasts, suggesting a clear

need for adjustments. The employment update is as follows: We calculate the annual

percentage change using DETR data and apply the percentage changes to generate new



estimates for 2010 and 2011. The underlying assumption of this procedure is that the

proportion of self-employed in each industry classification grows at the same rate as does

the ratio between full- and part-time workers.

Table 2: Employment Growth Rates for Clark County before Adjustment

REMI Baseline

Forecast

DETR Estimates

Industrial Classification 2010 2011 2010 2011

Construction -7.60% 1.98% -30.12% -9.78%

Wholesale trade 2.08% 2.86% -5.14% -6.90%

Retail trade -0.42% 2.90% -0.65% -0.22%

Transit, ground pass transportation -1.08% 2.09% 0.81% 0.00%

Monetary authorities, et al. -2.03% 1.88% -9.03% -11.35%

Ins carriers, related activities -2.04% 1.87% -6.50% -8.26%

Real estate -1.29% 3.12% -6.18% -6.59%

Prof, technical services 2.69% 4.40% -3.78% -3.93%

Management of companies -0.41% 2.16% 2.22% 0.72%

Administrative, support services -0.75% 2.30% 3.05% 8.09%

Ambulatory health care services -2.50% 3.64% 2.37% 5.30%

Hospitals -2.67% 2.20% 0.66% 4.61%

Amusement, gambling, and rec -2.15% 2.17% -5.83% -6.19%

Accommodation -2.35% 1.29% 0.43% 2.63%

Food services, drinking places 0.19% 3.01% 2.34% 5.12%

Total -1.46% 2.09% -3.08% 0.15%

Table 3 reports the updated employment data by category for the model. The Clark

County job growth numbers in 2010 and 2011 suggest that general economic conditions

are improving in the Las Vegas area. While the Southern Nevada economy lost 3 percent

of its total employment in 2010, the DETR estimates suggest that Clark County did not

experience employment losses in 2011. In addition, some positive job growth took place

in 2011 in key sectors such as health care services, accommodation, and food services.

Hence, it appears that the Southern Nevada economy is slowly beginning the road to

economic recovery. Overall, Southern Nevada’s economy experienced a loss of about

30,000 jobs in 2010, while in 2011, the local economy gained roughly 3,000 jobs.



Table 3: Model Job Adjustments (in 000s) for 2010 and 2011

Baseline DETR Growth Rates Adjusted Job Levels

Industrial Classification History 2009 2010 2011 2010 2011

Forestry et al. 0.00 0.00% 0.00% 0.00 0.00

Agriculture 0.30 -4.22% 0.90% 0.29 0.29

Oil, gas extraction 0.00 0.00% 0.00% 0.00 0.00

Mining (except oil, gas) 1.91 -7.85% -3.16% 1.76 1.70

Support activities for mining 0.54 -18.32% -1.09% 0.44 0.44

Utilities 3.18 -3.40% -0.10% 3.07 3.07

Construction 75.81 -30.12% -9.78% 52.97 47.79

Wood product mfg 0.47 -10.84% -1.03% 0.42 0.42

Nonmetallic mineral prod mfg 2.52 1.50% 0.80% 2.55 2.57

Primary metal mfg 0.58 64.57% 14.91% 0.95 1.09

Fabricated metal prod mfg 2.25 -6.09% 0.94% 2.11 2.13

Machinery mfg 0.50 13.75% 4.19% 0.57 0.60

Computer, electronic prod mfg 0.46 44.19% -1.25% 0.66 0.65

Electrical equip, appliance mfg 0.51 6.20% 1.10% 0.54 0.54

Motor vehicle mfg 0.54 -23.95% 4.18% 0.41 0.42

Transp equip mfg exc motor veh 0.15 31.22% 6.24% 0.19 0.21

Furniture, related prod mfg 1.19 -2.55% 3.26% 1.16 1.20

Miscellaneous mfg 5.74 -1.63% 7.78% 5.65 6.09

Food mfg 2.78 -2.29% 0.51% 2.72 2.73

Beverage, tobacco prod mfg 0.09 2.50% 1.65% 0.09 0.09

Textile mills 0.17 -16.09% -4.12% 0.14 0.14

Textile prod mills 0.20 -31.24% -7.32% 0.14 0.13

Apparel mfg 0.15 -0.90% 0.90% 0.15 0.15

Leather, allied prod mfg 0.07 -2.14% 0.67% 0.06 0.07

Paper mfg 0.44 -3.01% 0.37% 0.43 0.43

Printing, rel supp act 1.81 -3.32% -0.33% 1.75 1.75

Petroleum, coal prod mfg 0.03 -11.91% -3.97% 0.03 0.02

Chemical mfg 0.74 -14.79% -0.86% 0.63 0.63

Plastics, rubber prod mfg 1.84 -2.66% 0.90% 1.79 1.81

Wholesale trade 25.95 -5.14% -6.90% 24.61 22.91

Retail trade 109.07 -0.65% -0.22% 108.36 108.13

Air transportation 6.25 -1.37% 2.49% 6.17 6.32

Rail transportation 0.26 -3.17% 2.57% 0.25 0.26

Water transportation 0.06 -0.19% 3.67% 0.06 0.06

Truck transp; Couriers, msngrs 7.79 1.69% 3.11% 7.92 8.17

Transit, ground pass transp 13.39 0.81% 0.00% 13.49 13.49

Pipeline transportation 0.01 -5.27% 0.23% 0.01 0.01

Scenic, sightseeing transp; supp 5.20 2.10% 4.32% 5.31 5.54

Warehousing, storage 4.22 2.15% 3.01% 4.31 4.44



Table 3 Continued: Baseline DETR Growth Rates Adjusted Job Levels

Industrial Classification History 2009 2010 2011 2010 2011

Publishing, exc Internet 2.46 -9.63% -3.15% 2.23 2.16

Motion picture, sound rec 2.65 0.26% 1.85% 2.65 2.70

Internet serv, data proc, other 1.75 0.41% 4.61% 1.76 1.84

Broadcasting, exc Int; Telecomm 6.36 -5.29% -0.92% 6.03 5.97

Monetary authorities, et al. 26.35 -9.03% -11.35% 23.97 21.25

Sec, comm contracts, inv 40.73 -4.17% 0.29% 39.03 39.14

Ins carriers, rel act 11.49 -6.50% -8.26% 10.75 9.86

Real estate 60.13 -6.18% -6.59% 56.41 52.70

Rental, leasing services 6.67 -3.26% 1.24% 6.46 6.54

Prof, tech services 55.08 -3.78% -3.93% 53.00 50.92

Mgmt of companies, enterprises 15.42 2.22% 0.72% 15.76 15.88

Administrative, support services 65.35 3.05% 8.09% 67.34 72.79

Waste mgmt, remed services 2.14 0.27% 3.37% 2.15 2.22

Educational services 9.00 3.07% 5.52% 9.28 9.79

Ambulatory health care services 34.20 2.37% 5.30% 35.01 36.86

Hospitals 16.19 0.66% 4.61% 16.29 17.04

Nursing, residential care facilities 6.99 -0.36% 4.39% 6.96 7.27

Social assistance 14.45 -1.86% 2.79% 14.18 14.57

Performing arts, spectator sports 18.82 -0.80% 2.65% 18.67 19.17

Museums et al. 0.29 0.78% 4.60% 0.29 0.30

Amusement, gambling, recreation 13.77 -5.83% -6.19% 12.96 12.16

Accommodation 164.08 0.43% 2.63% 164.78 169.12

Food services, drinking places 76.44 2.34% 5.12% 78.23 82.24

Repair, maintenance 9.19 -1.74% 2.60% 9.03 9.27

Personal, laundry services 15.13 -1.72% 3.85% 14.87 15.45

Membership assoc, organ 8.20 -0.83% 3.47% 8.13 8.41

Private households 12.09 -2.33% 4.47% 11.81 12.34

State & local gov 85.16 -1.72% -1.38% 83.69 82.54

Federal civilian 11.71 4.79% 0.49% 12.27 12.33

Federal military 13.28 3.36% -2.15% 13.73 13.43

Farm 0.24 -2.89% -0.65% 0.23 0.23

Total 1,082.96 -3.08% 0.15% 1,050.14 1,052.96

C. Transportation and infrastructure improvements

Clark County has continued to invest in transportation infrastructure such as roads,

highways, and mass transit. The model assumes that public-infrastructure investment will

continue at a pace consistent with the model history. Thus, some local spending on public

infrastructure, such as road building and additional services, is built into the model.



However, one-time monies tend to come from outside the region (for example, federal

transportation funding). These large, special projects need to be accounted for in the

forecast.

Whereas some of the planned expenditures are “new money,” the remaining

would have been spent for other purposes. Thus, in order to avoid double-counting and

retain a balanced budget, the expenditures are entered in the REMI model as translator

policy variables. The model then computes the actual new expenditures over and above

what is already included and returns them as policy variables.

The estimated federal funding in transportation-infrastructure investment

expenditures is about $217 million in 2011, $90 million in 2012, $607 million between

2013 and 2020, and $1.01 billion between 2021 and 2030.4 These expenditures are

annualized and included in the REMI model as new construction projects.

D. Amenity adjustments

For over a decade, the Las Vegas metropolitan area has been one of the fastest-growing

communities in the United States. This has helped maintain a vibrant economy, but

research has shown that rapid urban expansion is frequently correlated with a diminishing

quality of life as congestion, deteriorating air quality, and a shortage of public services

take their toll on local populations. These “negative externalities” arising from rapid

growth impose costs on local residents, making the county less attractive to those living

here and potential in-migrants. As a result, people are more likely to relocate to areas

with a higher quality of life, all else being equal.

To account for the rising social costs of negative externalities from growth, we

include an amenity factor in the model. We assume that the social costs of growth rise by

4 Source: Regional Transportation Commission.



0.033 percent each year. The amenity factor is introduced in the model through the wage

equations, effectively causing real wages to fall relative to other regions. Falling wages

means less economic migration, and population growth slows as the desirability of Clark

County falls.

E. Rebasing the population forecast

In the past we rebased the population forecast by adding the forecasted annual changes in

population to the most recent population estimate. We rebase the population forecasts

using the new population update feature in the REMI model. We update the population in

2011 based on the most recent information available for use from the SNRPC. The

SNRPC consensus population estimate for Clark County in 2011 is 1.97 million. In

addition, we update the population levels in 2012 and 2013 to reflect the population

growth rate forecast from CBER’s 2012 Economic Outlook published in December 2011.

The latter adjustment is intended to incorporate the views of local economic experts at

CBER in the short-term population forecasts. CBER predicts that the Clark County

population will grow by 0.8 percent in 2012 and 1 percent in 2013. These population

growth-rate forecasts translate to a forecasted population of 1.98 million in 2012, and 2

million in 2013. We use these forecasted population levels to update the population in the

REMI model.

IV. Analysis of the Economic and Demographic Forecast

The forecast predicts steady population growth for Southern Nevada over the forecast

period extending out to 2050. However, the rate of growth, which has been decidedly

greater than the national average over the past fifty years, is beginning to moderate and

move toward the national rate of growth. The economic forecast calls for the continuation

of the economic recovery in 2012 and steady employment growth through 2015. Tables 4



through 6, respectively, report the population, employment, and Gross Regional Product

(GRP) predictions for Clark County from the calibrated model.

A. Population

The current forecast predicts an end of the recent declining population trend and a return

of long-term population growth in Southern Nevada. The population in Clark County is

predicted to grow at a rate of 0.8 percent in 2012 and 1.0 percent in 2013. The population

growth rate rises above 2 percent in the medium term as the Clark County economy

accelerates its recovery. By 2015, population growth is at 2.7 percent. By 2025, the

population growth rate falls to 1.3 percent as the Clark County economy is expected to

mature; and it reaches 0.8 percent, the projected5 long-term national population growth

rate, by 2050. This type of long-term growth pattern is expected as our economy matures

and is very similar to previous forecasts.

Clark County is forecasted to add roughly 15,000 new residents in 2012. CBER’s

2012 Southern Nevada Economic Outlook predicts that population growth is likely to be

moderate in the near term, and it will not be a driver of economic growth as it was

throughout much of Las Vegas’ history. Rather, economic growth will drive population.

The population forecast predicts that the Clark County population will be roughly 3.3

million by 2050.

5 Source: http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/summarytables.html



Table 4: Population History, REMI Forecast, and Rebased Forecast6

Year

Population REMI

Forecast*

Population

Rebased Forecast


Rebased Forecast


Rebased

Forecast

2011 1,975,000 1,966,630**

2012 2,015,000 1,982,000*** 15,370 0.8%

2013 2,060,000 2,002,000*** 20,000 1.0%

2014 2,107,000 2,057,000 55,000 2.7%

2015 2,156,000 2,112,000 55,000 2.7%

2016 2,205,000 2,167,000 55,000 2.6%

2017 2,255,000 2,220,000 53,000 2.4%

2018 2,305,000 2,274,000 54,000 2.4%

2019 2,349,000 2,321,000 47,000 2.1%

2020 2,390,000 2,365,000 44,000 1.9%

2021 2,429,000 2,405,000 40,000 1.7%

2022 2,465,000 2,443,000 38,000 1.6%

2023 2,499,000 2,478,000 35,000 1.4%

2024 2,532,000 2,512,000 34,000 1.4%

2025 2,564,000 2,545,000 33,000 1.3%

2026 2,595,000 2,576,000 31,000 1.2%

2027 2,626,000 2,608,000 32,000 1.2%

2028 2,656,000 2,638,000 30,000 1.2%

2029 2,686,000 2,669,000 31,000 1.2%

2030 2,716,000 2,699,000 30,000 1.1%

2031 2,746,000 2,729,000 30,000 1.1%

2032 2,777,000 2,759,000 30,000 1.1%

2033 2,807,000 2,789,000 30,000 1.1%

2034 2,837,000 2,818,000 29,000 1.0%

2035 2,867,000 2,848,000 30,000 1.1%

2040 3,022,000 2,999,000 30,000 1.0%

2045 3,178,000 3,149,000 30,000 1.0%

2050 3,328,000 3,291,000 27,000 0.8%

*This forecast incorporates all the adjustments except rebasing.

**SNRPC concensus population estimate.

*** CBER 2012 Economic Outlook forecast

6 A table detailing the rebased population forecast appears in the Appendix – Table A2.



B. Employment

The forecast predicts a steady economic recovery for Southern Nevada in 2012. The Las

Vegas economy is forecasted to add an additional 35,000 jobs in 2012, which represents a

3.3 percent growth in employment over 2011. Employment growth is predicted to be

stronger in 2013 as the economy is predicted to add 39,000 new jobs. The forecast also

predicts a continuation of steady employment growth in the near term. It is predicted that

the Las Vegas economy will return to the 2007 peak employment level (1.18 million

jobs) by 2015. Employment growth reaches a peak of 3.8 percent in 2015 and then

eventually stabilizes at around 1 percent as the Southern Nevada economy reaches

maturity. See Table 5.7

7 Unadjusted employment forecasts are shown in the Appendix.



Table 5: Employment History and Forecasts

Year

Employment

Forecast

Change in

Employment

Forecast

Growth in

Employment

Forecast

Employment-

Population Ratio

Forecast**

2009 1,083,000* 0.54

2010 1,050,000 -33,000 -3.0% 0.52

2011 1,053,000 3,000 0.3% 0.54

2012 1,088,000 35,000 3.3% 0.54

2013 1,126,000 39,000 3.5% 0.55

2014 1,168,000 42,000 3.7% 0.56

2015 1,212,000 44,000 3.8% 0.56

2016 1,257,000 44,000 3.6% 0.57

2017 1,302,000 46,000 3.7% 0.58

2018 1,341,000 39,000 3.0% 0.58

2019 1,360,000 18,000 1.4% 0.58

2020 1,374,000 14,000 1.0% 0.58

2021 1,387,000 13,000 1.0% 0.57

2022 1,399,000 12,000 0.9% 0.57

2023 1,411,000 13,000 0.9% 0.57

2024 1,424,000 13,000 0.9% 0.56

2025 1,436,000 12,000 0.9% 0.56

2026 1,449,000 13,000 0.9% 0.56

2027 1,463,000 13,000 0.9% 0.56

2028 1,477,000 14,000 1.0% 0.56

2029 1,492,000 15,000 1.0% 0.56

2030 1,507,000 16,000 1.1% 0.56

2031 1,524,000 17,000 1.1% 0.56

2032 1,541,000 17,000 1.1% 0.56

2033 1,558,000 17,000 1.1% 0.56

2034 1,575,000 17,000 1.1% 0.56

2035 1,592,000 16,000 1.0% 0.56

2040 1,672,000 15,000 0.9% 0.56

2045 1,755,000 19,000 1.1% 0.56

2050 1,848,000 16,000 0.9% 0.56

*Actual employment.

**The unrebased population forecast was used for consistency.



C. Gross regional product

Gross Regional Product (GRP) is defined as the dollar value of all final goods and

services for sale in a regional economy. As such, it reflects the output of a local economy

and avoids double-counting initial and intermediate goods. The forecast for growth in the

Clark County GRP, shown in Table 6, basically mirrors the growth pattern of local

employment, but also reflects continued growth in productivity throughout the majority

of the forecast. The GRP growth forecast starts at 3.9 percent in 2012, and climbs up to

4.7 percent in 2014. The GRP forecast then cycles through a low of 1.9 percent and

finally stabilizes at around 2.1 percent.



Table 6: Gross Regional Product History and Forecasts

Year

GRP (Billions of

Chained 2005$)

REMI Forecast

Change in GRP

(Billions of

Chained 2005$)

REMI Forecast

Growth in GRP

(Billions of

Chained 2005$)

REMI Forecast

GRP per Capita

(Chained 2005$)

REMI Forecast

2009 80.743* 40,244

2010 80.602 -0.14 -0.20% 39,582

2011 80.054 -0.55 -0.70% 40,706

2012 83.186 3.13 3.90% 41,964

2013 86.579 3.39 4.10% 43,244

2014 90.617 4.04 4.70% 44,051

2015 94.753 4.14 4.60% 44,866

2016 99.061 4.31 4.50% 45,722

2017 103.403 4.34 4.40% 46,568

2018 107.927 4.52 4.40% 47,467

2019 110.778 2.85 2.60% 47,722

2020 112.93 2.15 1.90% 47,751

2021 115.188 2.26 2.00% 47,889

2022 117.411 2.22 1.90% 48,063

2023 119.728 2.32 2.00% 48,310

2024 122.104 2.38 2.00% 48,605

2025 124.513 2.41 2.00% 48,928

2026 127.014 2.5 2.00% 49,298

2027 129.642 2.63 2.10% 49,717

2028 132.401 2.76 2.10% 50,187

2029 135.281 2.88 2.20% 50,695

2030 138.338 3.06 2.30% 51,264

2031 141.57 3.23 2.30% 51,883

2032 144.929 3.36 2.40% 52,537

2033 148.389 3.46 2.40% 53,214

2034 151.915 3.53 2.40% 53,900

2035 155.501 3.59 2.40% 54,593

2040 175.006 3.99 2.30% 58,350

2045 196.416 4.42 2.30% 62,383

2050 219.317 4.61 2.10% 66,637

*Actual GRP.



V. Comparing Current Forecast with Previous Years of the Forecast

This section compares this year’s final population growth forecasts with the final

population growth forecasts from previous years. This exercise allows us to assess the

consistency of the forecast methodology and to assess the variability in the population

growth forecasts over the last ten years. Figure 3 shows the population-growth-rate

forecasts obtained from 2005 to 2012. Figure 3 also shows the standard deviation of the

population-growth-rate forecast in the last 14 years (1999-2012).8 The population-

growth-rate forecasts exhibit a high level of variability in the near term. The standard

deviation of the population-growth-rate forecast for the year 2012 is roughly 1 percent.

This reflects a high degree of uncertainty in the short-term forecast (see Section VI). The

variability among the population-growth-rate forecasts falls dramatically in the long term.

By 2030, the forecasted growth rates converge to about 1.2 percent, with a standard

deviation of 0.25 percent. Hence, there is a large degree of consistency in the long-term

growth predictions obtained during the last 14 years, as evidenced by the low standard

deviation among the forecasts. This observation further confirms the fact that our

forecasts are primarily meant to be long-run planning tools.

8 The standard deviation is a measure of the variability among data points. For data that follow a normal

distribution, 99.7 percent of data points will fall within approximately 3 standard deviations of the mean.



Figure 3: Clark County Historic Population-Growth-Rate Forecasts: 2012-2035

VI. Risks to the Forecast

Our Southern Nevada population forecasts rest on economic and demographic models set

in the context of a structured framework. This structure keeps our long-term forecasts

consistent with our objectives. We have separated the long-term trend from the noise that

one finds in time-series data. These noise factors include the business cycle and seasonal

and irregular events.

The main risks to the short-term population forecast arise from short-term

fluctuations in both U.S. and Southern Nevada economic conditions. The major

assumption of the short-term forecast is that the improved economic conditions in the

United States, particularly in the West, will benefit Southern Nevada. The recovery of the



Southern Nevada economy could be slowed if U.S. economic conditions do not continue

improving. If the growth of the U.S. economy suddenly accelerates, the recovery of the

Southern Nevada economy will be stronger.

The reliability of the long-term forecast hinges on the new growth path that will

emerge from the recent economic recession. As we discussed in previous forecasts, the

recovery from the recent recession will be slower in Southern Nevada as compared to the

national economy. This is largely due to the greater difficulty of the Las Vegas housing

market to recover. At mid-year 2012, we still see a large oversupply of housing units,

and the risk of more foreclosures remains high. Overcoming these difficulties will take

more time in Nevada than elsewhere in the United States, except for the housing bubble

states of Arizona, California, and Florida. The recent recession also likely caused a

structural change in consumer spending habits. Although gaming revenue is rising with

visitor volume, retail sales inside Clark County casinos are not. As a result, the spending

for each visitor may remain at a lower level than during the boom period, and it may be

some time before consumers return to earlier spending levels.

Therefore, although we feel the population forecasts are sound, there are

significant risks to the forecasts that could lead to either over- or underestimated growth.

We say again, however, that these risks tend to arise from short-run uncertainty; whereas,

our forecasts are primarily meant to be long-run planning tools.

VII. Conclusion

The latest REMI model projects long-term population growth patterns that are consistent

with previous population forecasts. Overall, the population growth forecast is less than

last year’s forecast. This is a reflection of the new data incorporated into the model that

take into account the recent economic recession. We note that, despite short-term



economic uncertainties and model difficulties, the long-term population forecast, which is

the main focus of this forecasting exercise, remains consistent with past forecasts. By

2035, we predict that Clark County’s population will be about 2.85 million. In 2050,

Clark County is expected to have nearly 3.3 million residents. The model continues to

predict changes in the economy as the county grows and matures. Thus, the breakneck

percentage annual growth rates seen in the past two decades are expected to moderate

over the long term.



Appendix:

Detailed Report Tables



Table A1: Out-of-the-Box Clark County Population and Population Growth Forecasts from REMI

Models LHY2009 and LHY2008

Year

LHY2009

Population

(Thousands)

LHY2008

Population

(Thousands)

LHY2009

Population

Growth

LHY2008

Population

Growth

2010 1,943 1,999

2011 1,984 2,060 2.1% 3.1%

2012 2,027 2,124 2.2% 3.1%

2013 2,074 2,187 2.3% 3.0%

2014 2,124 2,249 2.4% 2.8%

2015 2,175 2,308 2.4% 2.6%

2016 2,227 2,365 2.4% 2.5%

2017 2,279 2,420 2.4% 2.3%

2018 2,332 2,472 2.3% 2.1%

2019 2,380 2,522 2.0% 2.0%

2020 2,424 2,569 1.8% 1.9%

2021 2,464 2,615 1.7% 1.8%

2022 2,502 2,660 1.5% 1.7%

2023 2,538 2,703 1.4% 1.6%

2024 2,572 2,746 1.4% 1.6%

2025 2,605 2,788 1.3% 1.5%

2026 2,637 2,829 1.2% 1.5%

2027 2,669 2,870 1.2% 1.4%

2028 2,701 2,911 1.2% 1.4%

2029 2,731 2,950 1.1% 1.3%

2030 2,762 2,990 1.1% 1.4%

2031 2,793 3,029 1.1% 1.3%

2032 2,823 3,067 1.1% 1.3%

2033 2,854 3,106 1.1% 1.3%

2034 2,884 3,144 1.1% 1.2%

2035 2,915 3,182 1.1% 1.2%

2036 2,946 3,221 1.1% 1.2%

2039 3,039 3,338 1.0% 1.2%

2040 3,071 3,378 1.0% 1.2%

2041 3,103 3,418 1.0% 1.2%

2044 3,198 3,543 1.0% 1.2%

2045 3,230 3,585 1.0% 1.2%

2046 3,262 3,628 1.0% 1.2%

2049 3,356 3,758 0.9% 1.2%

2050 3,386 3,801 0.9% 1.1%




Table A2: Detailed Final Population Forecast: 2000 – 2050

Year

Population

Forecast


Forecast


(Percent)

2000 1,428,689* 107,513 8.1%

2001 1,498,278* 69,589 4.9%

2002 1,578,332* 80,054 5.3%

2003 1,641,529* 63,197 4.0%

2004 1,747,025* 105,496 6.4%

2005 1,815,700* 68,675 3.9%

2006 1,912,654* 96,954 5.3%

2007 1,996,542* 83,888 4.4%

2008 1,986,145* -10,397 -0.5%

2009 2,006,347* 20,202 1.0%

2010 1,951,269** -55,078 -2.7%

2011 1,966,630* 15,361 0.8%

2012 1,982,000*** 15,370 0.8%

2013 2,002,000*** 20,000 1.0%

2014 2,057,000 55,000 2.7%

2015 2,112,000 55,000 2.7%

2016 2,167,000 55,000 2.6%

2017 2,220,000 53,000 2.4%

2018 2,274,000 54,000 2.4%

2019 2,321,000 47,000 2.1%

2020 2,365,000 44,000 1.9%

2021 2,405,000 40,000 1.7%

2022 2,443,000 38,000 1.6%

2023 2,478,000 35,000 1.4%

2024 2,512,000 34,000 1.4%

2025 2,545,000 33,000 1.3%

2026 2,576,000 31,000 1.2%

2027 2,608,000 32,000 1.2%

2028 2,638,000 30,000 1.2%

2029 2,669,000 31,000 1.2%

2030 2,699,000 30,000 1.1%

2031 2,729,000 30,000 1.1%

2032 2,759,000 30,000 1.1%

2033 2,789,000 30,000 1.1%

2034 2,818,000 29,000 1.0%

2035 2,848,000 30,000 1.1%

2036 2,879,000 31,000 1.1%

2037 2,909,000 30,000 1.0%

2038 2,939,000 30,000 1.0%

2039 2,969,000 30,000 1.0%

2040 2,999,000 30,000 1.0%

2041 3,029,000 30,000 1.0%

2042 3,059,000 30,000 1.0%

2043 3,089,000 30,000 1.0%

2044 3,119,000 30,000 1.0%

2045 3,149,000 30,000 1.0%

2046 3,178,000 29,000 0.9%

2047 3,207,000 29,000 0.9%

2048 3,235,000 28,000 0.9%

2049 3,264,000 29,000 0.9%

2050 3,291,000 27,000 0.8%

* SNRPC consensus population estimate.

** 2010 U.S. Census. *** CBER 2012 Economic Outlook forecast.

Note: The average annual forecasted growth rate is 1.4 percent.



Table A3: Economic Forecast After Employment, Hotel, Amenity, and Transit Adjustments

Variable 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total Employment 1087.669 1126.231 1168.213 1212.286 1256.500 1302.470 1341.499 1359.906 1373.518

Total Employment as % of Nation 0.625 0.635 0.645 0.654 0.663 0.671 0.678 0.679 0.681

Private Non-Farm Employment 979.890 1018.255 1056.083 1095.984 1135.886 1177.610 1212.212 1228.788 1241.090

Private Non-Farm Employment as % of Nation 0.661 0.672 0.681 0.690 0.700 0.708 0.716 0.716 0.717

Gross Domestic Product 83.206 86.590 90.613 94.733 99.027 103.355 107.867 110.709 112.853

Personal Income 77.764 83.029 90.064 97.634 105.896 114.698 124.177 130.724 136.616

Personal Income as % of Nation 0.581 0.592 0.604 0.614 0.625 0.635 0.644 0.648 0.650

Disposable Personal Income 71.313 75.509 81.734 88.414 95.686 103.409 111.703 117.614 122.933

PCE-Price Index 117.192 119.080 121.376 123.766 126.327 128.959 131.663 134.621 137.700

Real Disposable Personal Income 60.851 63.410 67.340 71.437 75.745 80.188 84.840 87.367 89.277

Real Disposable Personal Income as % of Nation 0.585 0.598 0.609 0.620 0.631 0.640 0.650 0.652 0.655

Population (unrebased forecast) 2015.228 2059.620 2106.777 2155.039 2204.120 2253.191 2302.312 2346.349 2386.919

Population as % of Nation 0.639 0.647 0.656 0.665 0.674 0.682 0.691 0.697 0.703

Table A3: Economic Forecast After Employment, Hotel, Amenity, and Transit Adjustments continued

Variable 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029



Private Non-Farm Employment 1252.988 1263.974 1275.414 1286.919 1298.282 1310.012 1322.314 1335.318 1348.844

Private Non-Farm Employment as % of Nation 0.718 0.719 0.721 0.722 0.723 0.725 0.726 0.727 0.729

Gross Domestic Product 115.106 117.325 119.638 122.013 124.420 126.921 129.549 132.308 135.190

Personal Income 142.892 149.410 156.478 163.962 171.809 180.132 188.944 198.251 208.533

Personal Income as % of Nation 0.653 0.655 0.657 0.659 0.661 0.663 0.666 0.668 0.671

Disposable Personal Income 128.598 134.479 140.854 147.601 154.675 162.179 170.125 178.517 187.790

PCE-Price Index 141.026 144.555 148.393 152.466 156.718 161.147 165.757 170.462 175.348

Real Disposable Personal Income 91.188 93.030 94.919 96.809 98.696 100.641 102.635 104.726 107.095

Real Disposable Personal Income as % of Nation 0.658 0.660 0.663 0.665 0.667 0.670 0.672 0.675 0.677

Population (unrebased forecast) 2424.612 2459.835 2493.289 2525.368 2556.406 2586.817 2616.714 2646.123 2675.364

Population as % of Nation 0.708 0.711 0.714 0.717 0.719 0.722 0.723 0.725 0.727



Table A3: Economic Forecast After Employment, Hotel, Amenity, and Transit Adjustments continued

Variable 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Total Employment 1507.346 1591.510 1672.198 1755.331 1848.190

Total Employment as % of Nation 0.694 0.702 0.707 0.709 0.709

Private Non-Farm Employment 1363.311 1440.169 1513.775 1589.725 1674.049

Private Non-Farm Employment as % of Nation 0.730 0.738 0.743 0.745 0.744

Gross Domestic Product 138.248 155.419 174.935 196.356 219.267

Personal Income 219.760 288.098 379.635 498.499 647.692

Personal Income as % of Nation 0.673 0.689 0.705 0.718 0.724

Disposable Personal Income 197.916 259.572 342.217 449.607 584.361

PCE-Price Index 180.419 208.683 242.302 281.837 328.131

Real Disposable Personal Income 109.698 124.386 141.236 159.527 178.088

Real Disposable Personal Income as % of Nation 0.680 0.696 0.711 0.724 0.732

Population (unrebased forecast) 2704.485 2850.495 2999.435 3148.560 3291.947

Population as % of Nation 0.728 0.736 0.742 0.748 0.751



Table A4: Employment

Variable 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020



Private Non-Farm 979.890 1018.255 1056.083 1095.984 1135.886 1177.610 1212.212 1228.788 1241.090

Forestry, Fishing, Other 0.295 0.299 0.307 0.314 0.321 0.328 0.334 0.342 0.348

Mining 2.215 2.295 2.283 2.277 2.269 2.265 2.243 2.257 2.291

Utilities 3.094 3.126 3.145 3.168 3.188 3.202 3.196 3.162 3.106

Construction 54.157 61.826 66.561 71.638 76.892 82.433 87.651 89.599 91.041

Manufacturing 24.726 25.543 25.567 25.622 25.588 25.569 25.191 24.999 24.642

Wholesale Trade 23.629 24.240 24.499 24.773 25.004 25.240 25.255 25.383 25.433

Retail Trade 111.392 114.808 117.812 120.937 123.969 127.048 129.264 130.014 130.771

Transportation and Warehousing 39.477 40.678 41.411 42.173 42.872 43.617 44.011 44.352 44.655

Information 12.825 13.030 13.325 13.674 14.045 14.461 14.806 14.933 14.930

Finance and Insurance 71.746 73.430 75.256 77.199 79.105 81.126 82.610 84.081 85.500

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 61.883 64.823 67.257 69.815 72.376 75.042 77.241 78.380 78.932

Professional and Technical Services 53.978 57.108 60.043 63.117 66.233 69.468 72.352 73.588 74.360

Mngmt of Companies and Enterprises 16.226 16.513 16.461 16.410 16.312 16.214 15.958 15.927 15.968

Admin and Waste Services 77.602 80.399 83.526 86.783 90.029 93.369 96.170 97.841 98.951

Educational Services 10.366 10.974 11.602 12.252 12.903 13.574 14.172 14.604 14.765

Health Care and Social Assistance 79.064 82.718 88.683 95.104 101.853 109.056 115.952 119.547 122.247

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 32.633 33.676 34.833 36.034 37.222 38.455 39.440 39.972 40.331

Accommodation and Food Services 256.813 262.420 270.142 278.153 285.926 293.996 300.153 302.524 304.985

Other Services, except Govt 47.769 50.349 53.372 56.542 59.782 63.148 66.214 67.283 67.836

Government 107.550 107.751 111.907 116.083 120.398 124.648 129.078 130.912 132.226

State and Local 82.322 83.035 86.972 90.944 95.058 99.131 103.392 105.199 106.687

Federal Civilian 11.996 11.844 11.782 11.711 11.636 11.548 11.455 11.442 11.405

Federal Military 13.233 12.872 13.152 13.427 13.703 13.969 14.232 14.271 14.135

Farm 0.229 0.226 0.222 0.219 0.216 0.212 0.208 0.205 0.202



Table A4: Employment continued

Variable 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029



Private Non-Farm 1252.988 1263.974 1275.414 1286.919 1298.282 1310.012 1322.314 1335.318 1348.844

Forestry, Fishing, Other 0.353 0.357 0.362 0.367 0.372 0.377 0.382 0.387 0.393

Mining 2.319 2.347 2.375 2.403 2.433 2.462 2.496 2.526 2.542

Utilities 3.054 3.002 2.953 2.908 2.859 2.817 2.776 2.738 2.706

Construction 92.313 93.484 94.709 95.978 97.279 98.673 100.174 101.683 102.486

Manufacturing 24.431 24.219 24.019 23.874 23.787 23.726 23.702 23.690 23.622

Wholesale Trade 25.492 25.532 25.574 25.616 25.653 25.696 25.752 25.814 25.870

Retail Trade 131.393 131.802 132.156 132.416 132.678 133.005 133.393 133.862 134.567

Transportation and Warehousing 45.048 45.459 45.908 46.384 46.879 47.403 47.978 48.585 49.203

Information 14.906 14.858 14.804 14.744 14.676 14.604 14.530 14.462 14.399

Finance and Insurance 86.648 87.570 88.376 89.079 89.675 90.227 90.759 91.298 91.841

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 79.488 79.994 80.512 81.034 81.532 82.038 82.566 83.157 83.797

Professional and Technical Services 75.157 75.961 76.865 77.827 78.822 79.869 80.987 82.156 83.346

Mngmt of Companies and Enterprises 16.029 16.096 16.174 16.257 16.345 16.442 16.560 16.688 16.800

Admin and Waste Services 99.910 100.824 101.814 102.800 103.799 104.808 105.862 106.957 108.121

Educational Services 14.909 15.032 15.155 15.271 15.375 15.478 15.569 15.664 15.779

Health Care and Social Assistance 124.989 127.620 130.370 133.125 135.852 138.627 141.414 144.317 147.517

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 40.697 41.058 41.445 41.849 42.259 42.694 43.169 43.686 44.272

Accommodation and Food Services 307.495 309.914 312.480 315.087 317.581 320.088 322.659 325.404 328.545

Other Services, except Govt 68.358 68.846 69.365 69.901 70.426 70.979 71.588 72.243 73.038

Government 133.390 134.453 135.575 136.705 137.785 138.887 140.040 141.222 142.522

State and Local 108.032 109.297 110.618 111.950 113.241 114.549 115.890 117.257 118.737

Federal Civilian 11.366 11.321 11.279 11.235 11.190 11.147 11.112 11.081 11.053

Federal Military 13.991 13.835 13.679 13.520 13.355 13.192 13.037 12.884 12.732

Farm 0.199 0.196 0.193 0.190 0.187 0.185 0.182 0.180 0.178



Table A4: Employment continued

Variable 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Total Employment 1507.346 1591.510 1672.198 1755.331 1848.190

Total Employment as % of Nation 0.694 0.702 0.707 0.709 0.709

Private Non-Farm 1363.311 1440.169 1513.775 1589.725 1674.049

Forestry, Fishing, Other 0.399 0.428 0.453 0.472 0.486

Mining 2.557 2.637 2.695 2.732 2.763

Utilities 2.674 2.530 2.395 2.273 2.182

Construction 103.334 108.193 112.682 116.671 120.702

Manufacturing 23.589 23.570 23.580 23.615 23.819

Wholesale Trade 25.965 26.466 26.804 26.924 26.934

Retail Trade 135.806 142.312 148.801 156.346 162.702

Transportation and Warehousing 49.839 53.282 56.819 60.651 65.366

Information 14.386 14.331 14.207 14.063 14.016

Finance and Insurance 92.374 95.057 97.392 99.692 101.397

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 84.458 88.043 91.380 94.659 98.002

Professional and Technical Services 84.582 91.384 98.276 105.243 113.653

Mngmt of Companies and Enterprises 16.908 17.423 17.798 18.006 18.288

Admin and Waste Services 109.341 115.617 121.170 125.973 131.316

Educational Services 15.885 16.385 16.879 17.481 18.184

Health Care and Social Assistance 150.735 167.660 184.899 203.211 222.604

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 44.898 48.461 52.401 57.028 62.762

Accommodation and Food Services 331.669 347.427 361.087 375.133 393.583

Other Services, except Govt 73.909 78.962 84.058 89.553 95.289

Government 143.859 151.172 158.260 165.446 173.983

State and Local 120.255 128.398 136.279 144.143 153.240

Federal Civilian 11.027 10.937 10.851 10.797 10.854

Federal Military 12.578 11.837 11.130 10.506 9.889

Farm 0.176 0.169 0.163 0.160 0.158



Table A5: Employment II

Variable 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Private Non-Farm 979.890 1018.255 1056.083 1095.984 1135.886 1177.610 1212.212 1228.788 1241.090

Intermediate Demand 201.523 209.082 216.561 224.282 231.923 239.683 245.918 248.396 251.636

Local Consumption Demand 357.829 372.280 389.616 408.026 426.918 446.595 463.903 472.247 477.188

Government Demand 6.565 6.740 7.114 7.509 7.920 8.360 8.772 8.811 8.803

Investment Activity Demand 43.671 50.530 54.557 58.868 63.323 68.040 72.452 74.790 76.401

Exports to Multiregions 4.509 4.682 4.824 4.971 5.112 5.254 5.365 5.417 5.453

Exports to Rest of Nation 338.956 346.707 354.817 363.328 371.599 380.410 386.789 389.830 392.272

Exports to Rest of World 26.571 27.958 28.420 28.834 28.887 29.069 28.822 29.112 29.157

Exogenous Industry Sales 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Exogenous Industry Demand 0.378 0.386 0.244 0.234 0.289 0.281 0.271 0.261 0.251

Table A5: Employment II continued

Variable 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

Private Non-Farm 1252.988 1263.974 1275.414 1286.919 1298.282 1310.012 1322.314 1335.318 1348.844

Intermediate Demand 254.201 256.572 259.061 261.535 264.006 266.512 269.087 271.690 274.291

Local Consumption Demand 482.075 486.462 490.954 495.384 499.665 504.117 508.746 513.742 519.856

Government Demand 8.780 8.760 8.745 8.730 8.714 8.707 8.701 8.693 8.692

Investment Activity Demand 77.837 79.233 80.679 82.176 83.736 85.463 87.252 89.056 90.321

Exports to Multiregions 5.492 5.527 5.564 5.605 5.646 5.688 5.736 5.787 5.836

Exports to Rest of Nation 394.793 397.227 399.878 402.621 405.262 407.939 410.753 413.810 416.849

Exports to Rest of World 29.542 29.937 30.285 30.630 31.024 31.441 31.900 32.406 32.870

Exogenous Industry Sales 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Exogenous Industry Demand 0.379 0.365 0.351 0.337 0.324 0.205 0.197 0.189 0.181



Table A5: Employment II continued

Variable 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Private Non-Farm 1363.311 1440.169 1513.775 1589.725 1674.049

Intermediate Demand 277.000 289.415 297.425 307.303 323.811

Local Consumption Demand 526.684 564.968 605.841 646.382 682.762

Government Demand 8.693 8.743 8.780 8.758 8.689

Investment Activity Demand 91.663 99.508 107.691 115.331 122.271

Exports to Multiregions 5.882 6.123 6.344 6.579 6.885

Exports to Rest of Nation 419.940 435.287 447.747 460.328 478.287

Exports to Rest of World 33.325 36.126 39.946 45.044 51.342

Exogenous Industry Sales 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Exogenous Industry Demand 0.174 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000



Table A6: Gross Regional Product (Fixed 2005$)

Variable 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Personal Consumption Expenditures 68.893 72.158 76.264 80.552 85.074 89.623 94.315 97.139 99.329 101.501 103.590 105.719

Vehicle & parts 3.712 3.993 4.294 4.611 4.933 5.263 5.597 5.780 5.927 6.065 6.203 6.345

Computers & furniture 5.145 5.476 5.937 6.428 6.950 7.464 7.983 8.222 8.295 8.362 8.424 8.486

Other durables 2.147 2.386 2.490 2.600 2.716 2.825 2.931 3.020 3.107 3.196 3.288 3.384

Food & beverages 8.726 8.959 9.294 9.631 9.976 10.310 10.644 10.925 11.136 11.337 11.522 11.701

Clothing & shoes 2.489 2.618 2.720 2.828 2.941 3.053 3.167 3.268 3.364 3.455 3.545 3.633

Gasoline & oil 1.688 1.746 1.828 1.911 1.997 2.082 2.169 2.214 2.244 2.272 2.297 2.320

Fuel oil & coal 0.052 0.051 0.051 0.050 0.049 0.048 0.047 0.046 0.045 0.045 0.044 0.043

Other non-durables 4.997 5.241 5.509 5.793 6.098 6.404 6.720 6.916 7.135 7.355 7.573 7.799

Housing 11.059 11.479 11.918 12.364 12.828 13.283 13.748 14.097 14.368 14.635 14.882 15.124

Household operation 3.080 3.212 3.390 3.575 3.771 3.968 4.173 4.277 4.356 4.433 4.505 4.577

Transportation 2.442 2.545 2.691 2.842 3.004 3.167 3.335 3.414 3.473 3.532 3.586 3.639

Medical care 12.485 13.036 14.027 15.082 16.217 17.402 18.665 19.382 19.985 20.604 21.206 21.832

Other services 10.871 11.416 12.116 12.838 13.595 14.354 15.136 15.579 15.894 16.210 16.516 16.833

Gross Private Domestic Fixed Investment 14.908 16.641 17.714 18.861 20.055 21.192 22.303 23.411 24.423 25.408 26.402 27.425

Residential 2.321 2.956 3.373 3.813 4.276 4.758 5.263 5.496 5.673 5.826 5.973 6.125

Nonresidential structures 2.299 2.599 2.774 2.957 3.146 3.338 3.532 3.689 3.818 3.945 4.077 4.217

Nonresidential equipment 10.287 11.087 11.567 12.091 12.633 13.096 13.508 14.226 14.933 15.637 16.352 17.084

Change in Private Inventories 0.046 0.051 0.051 0.051 0.051 0.050 0.049 0.051 0.052 0.052 0.053 0.053

Exogenous Final Demand 0.051 0.052 0.033 0.032 0.039 0.038 0.037 0.036 0.035 0.054 0.053 0.051

Government Consumption Expenditures 11.250 11.303 11.758 12.226 12.707 13.132 13.539 13.759 13.948 14.112 14.274 14.438

Federal Military 4.375 4.319 4.443 4.572 4.703 4.798 4.870 4.918 4.965 5.004 5.041 5.077

Federal Civilian 1.317 1.313 1.312 1.310 1.307 1.295 1.279 1.300 1.320 1.339 1.357 1.375

State and Local Government 5.558 5.671 6.003 6.344 6.697 7.040 7.390 7.540 7.663 7.769 7.875 7.985

Total Exports 49.660 51.316 52.842 54.362 56.011 57.714 59.489 60.674 61.757 62.891 64.056 65.280

Total Imports 61.601 64.931 68.050 71.351 74.910 78.395 81.866 84.360 86.691 88.912 91.103 93.328



Table A6: Gross Regional Product (Fixed 2005$) continued

Variable 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Personal Consumption Expenditures 107.846 109.967 112.164 114.420 116.717 119.364 122.274 138.613 156.776 176.488 196.232

Vehicle & parts 6.487 6.630 6.784 6.941 7.078 7.228 7.391 8.320 9.187 10.375 11.510

Computers & furniture 8.545 8.603 8.667 8.735 8.771 8.874 9.161 10.745 12.467 14.430 16.388

Other durables 3.484 3.587 3.697 3.812 3.928 4.062 4.203 5.011 5.935 6.945 7.979

Food & beverages 11.876 12.042 12.209 12.379 12.555 12.757 12.964 14.099 15.324 16.545 17.634

Clothing & shoes 3.722 3.810 3.898 3.989 4.084 4.189 4.295 4.892 5.570 6.310 7.074

Gasoline & oil 2.343 2.363 2.384 2.404 2.425 2.451 2.478 2.623 2.771 2.900 2.992

Fuel oil & coal 0.042 0.041 0.040 0.039 0.039 0.038 0.037 0.034 0.031 0.028 0.025

Other non-durables 8.028 8.262 8.507 8.761 9.022 9.318 9.612 11.291 13.212 15.256 17.339

Housing 15.361 15.588 15.816 16.051 16.299 16.580 16.869 18.470 20.235 22.091 23.879

Household operation 4.649 4.718 4.790 4.863 4.941 5.030 5.123 5.645 6.227 6.837 7.424

Transportation 3.692 3.742 3.794 3.847 3.902 3.966 4.032 4.395 4.786 5.169 5.520

Medical care 22.465 23.100 23.754 24.423 25.125 25.896 26.686 31.083 36.077 41.476 47.206

Other services 17.155 17.480 17.823 18.177 18.548 18.975 19.425 22.004 24.953 28.127 31.265

Gross Private Domestic Fixed Investment 28.473 29.559 30.720 31.940 33.073 34.183 35.335 41.734 48.650 56.484 64.855

Residential 6.282 6.449 6.636 6.839 7.051 7.213 7.391 8.474 9.714 11.004 12.221

Nonresidential structures 4.364 4.518 4.684 4.850 5.014 5.133 5.255 5.941 6.678 7.423 8.242

Nonresidential equipment 17.827 18.592 19.399 20.251 21.007 21.837 22.690 27.319 32.259 38.057 44.392

Change in Private Inventories 0.053 0.053 0.053 0.053 0.053 0.053 0.052 0.049 0.044 0.039 0.034

Exogenous Final Demand 0.050 0.049 0.031 0.030 0.030 0.029 0.028 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Government Consumption Expenditures 14.598 14.757 14.931 15.118 15.254 15.421 15.593 16.513 17.397 18.344 19.242

Federal Military 5.110 5.142 5.179 5.222 5.237 5.265 5.293 5.430 5.548 5.698 5.827

Federal Civilian 1.393 1.410 1.429 1.450 1.465 1.483 1.501 1.595 1.688 1.794 1.901

State and Local Government 8.095 8.205 8.324 8.446 8.552 8.673 8.799 9.488 10.162 10.852 11.513

Total Exports 66.553 67.868 69.227 70.642 72.130 73.657 75.237 83.784 92.795 102.512 114.225

Total Imports 95.560 97.833 100.206 102.655 104.948 107.516 110.271 125.274 140.728 157.513 175.320



Table A7: Income

Variable 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Personal income 77.764 83.029 90.064 97.634 105.896 114.698 124.177 130.724 136.616

Personal income as % of nation 0.581 0.592 0.604 0.614 0.625 0.635 0.644 0.648 0.650

Total earnings by place of work 54.896 58.258 63.059 68.211 73.837 79.818 86.231 90.388 94.121

Total wage and salary disbursements 40.160 42.590 46.204 50.095 54.350 58.873 63.739 66.826 69.603

Supplements to wages and salaries 9.529 10.125 10.934 11.799 12.742 13.741 14.811 15.593 16.303

Employer contributions for employee

pension and insurance funds

6.456 6.860 7.409 7.995 8.634 9.310 10.036 10.566 11.046

Employer contributions for government

social insurance

3.072 3.264 3.525 3.804 4.108 4.430 4.775 5.028 5.256

Proprietors' income with inventory valuation

and capital consumption adjustments

5.207 5.543 5.922 6.317 6.745 7.204 7.682 7.968 8.216

Less: Contributions for government social

insurance

6.051 6.455 7.018 7.625 8.290 8.999 9.763 10.257 10.703

Employee and self-employed contributions

for government social insurance

2.979 3.191 3.493 3.821 4.181 4.568 4.988 5.229 5.447


social insurance

3.072 3.264 3.525 3.804 4.108 4.430 4.775 5.028 5.256

Plus: Adjustment for residence -0.677 -0.732 -0.807 -0.888 -0.978 -1.072 -1.173 -1.230 -1.282

Gross in 0.750 0.781 0.830 0.881 0.937 0.996 1.060 1.110 1.154

Gross out 1.427 1.513 1.637 1.770 1.915 2.069 2.234 2.341 2.437

Equals: Net earnings by place of residence 48.169 51.070 55.234 59.698 64.569 69.746 75.295 78.900 82.136

Plus: Rental, personal interest, and personal

dividend income

16.682 18.376 20.408 22.648 25.136 27.851 30.843 32.648 34.280

Plus: Personal current transfer receipts 12.913 13.583 14.422 15.288 16.191 17.101 18.039 19.175 20.200

Equals: Personal income 77.764 83.029 90.064 97.634 105.896 114.698 124.177 130.724 136.616

Less: Personal current taxes 6.452 7.520 8.330 9.220 10.210 11.289 12.474 13.110 13.682

Equals: disposable personal income 71.313 75.509 81.734 88.414 95.686 103.409 111.703 117.614 122.933

Real personal income 66.356 69.725 74.203 78.886 83.827 88.942 94.315 97.105 99.213

Real disposable personal income 60.851 63.410 67.340 71.437 75.745 80.188 84.840 87.367 89.277

PCE-price index 117.192 119.080 121.376 123.766 126.327 128.959 131.663 134.621 137.700

Real personal income with housing price 69.081 72.508 77.074 81.850 86.888 92.100 97.578 100.380 102.500

Real Disposable personal income with housing

price

63.350 65.941 69.946 74.120 78.510 83.035 87.776 90.313 92.235

PCE-price index with housing price 112.570 114.511 116.854 119.284 121.877 124.536 127.260 130.228 133.283

Relative housing price 0.720 0.727 0.734 0.741 0.747 0.754 0.760 0.764 0.767



Table A7: Income continued

Variable 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

Personal income 142.892 149.410 156.478 163.962 171.809 180.132 188.944 198.251 208.533

Personal income as % of nation 0.653 0.655 0.657 0.659 0.661 0.663 0.666 0.668 0.671

Total earnings by place of work 98.138 102.352 106.966 111.903 117.087 122.581 128.374 134.51 141.278

Total wage and salary disbursements 72.581 75.701 79.116 82.769 86.603 90.667 94.953 99.502 104.52

Supplements to wages and salaries 17.061 17.853 18.713 19.628 20.584 21.591 22.65 23.771 25.003



11.56 12.097 12.68 13.299 13.947 14.63 15.347 16.107 16.941


social insurance

5.501 5.756 6.034 6.328 6.637 6.962 7.303 7.664 8.061



8.496 8.797 9.136 9.506 9.9 10.323 10.77 11.236 11.755


insurance

11.181 11.68 12.225 12.806 13.414 14.057 14.733 15.451 16.241



5.68 5.924 6.191 6.477 6.777 7.095 7.431 7.787 8.179


social insurance

5.501 5.756 6.034 6.328 6.637 6.962 7.303 7.664 8.061

Plus: Adjustment for residence -1.337 -1.395 -1.459 -1.528 -1.6 -1.678 -1.759 -1.844 -1.94

Gross in 1.203 1.253 1.309 1.367 1.428 1.493 1.561 1.634 1.712

Gross out 2.54 2.649 2.768 2.895 3.028 3.17 3.32 3.478 3.653

Equals: Net earnings by place of residence 85.62 89.276 93.282 97.57 102.073 106.847 111.881 117.214 123.097


dividend income

36 37.767 39.661 41.642 43.712 45.906 48.235 50.688 53.397

Plus: Personal current transfer receipts 21.272 22.366 23.535 24.75 26.023 27.38 28.827 30.349 32.039

Equals: Personal income 142.892 149.41 156.478 163.962 171.809 180.132 188.944 198.251 208.533

Less: Personal current taxes 14.294 14.931 15.625 16.361 17.134 17.953 18.818 19.733 20.743

Equals: disposable personal income 128.598 134.479 140.854 147.601 154.675 162.179 170.125 178.517 187.79

Real personal income 101.323 103.359 105.448 107.54 109.629 111.781 113.988 116.302 118.925

Real disposable personal income 91.188 93.03 94.919 96.809 98.696 100.641 102.635 104.726 107.095

PCE-price index 141.026 144.555 148.393 152.466 156.718 161.147 165.757 170.462 175.348

Real personal income with housing price 104.615 106.66 108.767 110.882 112.997 115.181 117.422 119.776 122.45


price

94.151 96.001 97.907 99.817 101.728 103.701 105.727 107.853 110.27

PCE-price index with housing price 136.588 140.081 143.865 147.872 152.047 156.391 160.91 165.518 170.3

Relative housing price 0.77 0.772 0.774 0.776 0.778 0.779 0.781 0.782 0.784



Table A7: Income continued

Variable 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Personal income 219.760 288.098 379.635 498.499 647.692

Personal income as % of nation 0.673 0.689 0.705 0.718 0.724

Total earnings by place of work 148.646 193.237 251.962 326.972 421.733

Total wage and salary disbursements 109.982 143.046 186.609 242.233 312.521

Supplements to wages and salaries 26.339 34.391 44.959 58.434 75.513



17.847 23.302 30.463 39.593 51.166


social insurance

8.492 11.088 14.496 18.84 24.347



12.325 15.801 20.394 26.306 33.699


insurance

17.099 22.282 29.099 37.796 48.803



8.607 11.194 14.603 18.956 24.456


social insurance

8.492 11.088 14.496 18.84 24.347

Plus: Adjustment for residence -2.045 -2.684 -3.521 -4.576 -5.886

Gross in 1.798 2.31 2.989 3.872 5.008

Gross out 3.843 4.994 6.51 8.447 10.894

Equals: Net earnings by place of residence 129.502 168.271 219.342 284.6 367.044


dividend income

56.359 74.45 99.031 131.402 171.807

Plus: Personal current transfer receipts 33.899 45.378 61.262 82.497 108.842

Equals: Personal income 219.76 288.098 379.635 498.499 647.692

Less: Personal current taxes 21.844 28.527 37.418 48.892 63.33

Equals: disposable personal income 197.916 259.572 342.217 449.607 584.361

Real personal income 121.805 138.055 156.679 176.875 197.388

Real disposable personal income 109.698 124.386 141.236 159.527 178.088

PCE-price index 180.419 208.683 242.302 281.837 328.131

Real personal income with housing price 125.39 141.995 161.044 181.692 202.657


price

112.927 127.935 145.171 163.872 182.842

PCE-price index with housing price 175.26 202.893 235.733 274.366 319.6

Relative housing price 0.785 0.792 0.798 0.803 0.806



Table A8: Population and Labor Force

Variable 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total population (unrebased forecast) 2015.228 2059.62 2106.777 2155.039 2204.12 2253.191 2302.312 2346.349 2386.919

Population as % of nation 0.639 0.647 0.656 0.665 0.674 0.682 0.691 0.697 0.703

By race and ethnicity

White 976.881 987.331 998.806 1010.268 1021.573 1032.295 1042.466 1049.733 1054.927

Black 189.529 192.425 195.554 198.693 201.809 204.827 207.747 210.134 212.137

Other 226.546 232.749 239.315 246.036 252.88 259.761 266.678 272.988 278.87

Hispanic 622.272 647.115 673.102 700.041 727.857 756.309 785.42 813.494 840.985

By age

Ages 0-14 446.835 456.583 466.562 476.338 485.165 493.416 501.888 508.509 513.952

Ages 15-24 247.988 253.381 259.667 265.459 271.491 278.87 286.352 292.68 298.535

Ages 25-64 1077.948 1092.308 1108.787 1126.923 1147.316 1167.245 1186.684 1203.245 1217.476

Ages 65 & older 242.457 257.349 271.761 286.319 300.148 313.661 327.389 341.915 356.956

Labor force 1009.092 1030.615 1055.015 1081.26 1109.141 1137.799 1165.756 1188.567 1207.982

Participation rates by gender

Male (16 & older) 0.734 0.732 0.732 0.732 0.732 0.732 0.731 0.729 0.725

Female (16 & older) 0.591 0.591 0.593 0.595 0.597 0.6 0.603 0.604 0.603

Table A8: Population and Labor Force continued

Variable 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029


Population as % of nation 0.708 0.711 0.714 0.717 0.719 0.722 0.723 0.725 0.727


White 1058.434 1060.471 1061.398 1061.428 1060.717 1059.414 1057.583 1055.253 1052.57

Black 213.824 215.228 216.42 217.434 218.306 219.068 219.732 220.298 220.791

Other 284.401 289.633 294.645 299.483 304.185 308.804 313.36 317.86 322.342

Hispanic 867.953 894.503 920.826 947.023 973.198 999.532 1026.037 1052.713 1079.66

By age

Ages 0-14 517.798 520.367 523.654 527.161 530.057 532.917 535.774 538.624 541.578

Ages 15-24 304.922 311.78 317.781 322.701 327.549 331.322 334.575 338.054 340.976

Ages 25-64 1230.57 1241.498 1250.661 1259.887 1267.593 1276.111 1284.82 1293.314 1301.534

Ages 65 & older 371.321 386.19 401.193 415.619 431.208 446.467 461.544 476.132 491.277

Labor force 1223.497 1237.487 1250.62 1262.881 1274.424 1286.167 1297.967 1309.606 1321.17


Male (16 & older) 0.722 0.719 0.715 0.712 0.709 0.706 0.704 0.701 0.699

Female (16 & older) 0.6 0.596 0.592 0.588 0.585 0.582 0.579 0.576 0.574



Table A8: Population and Labor Force continued

Variable 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Total population (unrebased forecast) 2704.485 2850.495 2999.435 3148.56 3291.947

Population as % of nation 0.728 0.736 0.742 0.748 0.751


White 1049.557 1030.409 1005.897 976.345 942.312

Black 221.221 222.606 222.877 221.734 218.911

Other 326.812 349.325 372.259 394.838 415.761

Hispanic 1106.896 1248.154 1398.401 1555.644 1714.963

By age

Ages 0-14 544.65 563.264 588.737 616.835 642.52

Ages 15-24 343.633 353.983 365.028 377.952 394.444

Ages 25-64 1309.748 1360.552 1412.367 1459.282 1500.069

Ages 65 & older 506.454 572.696 633.302 694.491 754.915

Labor force 1332.675 1394.78 1458.036 1520.008 1586.312


Male (16 & older) 0.697 0.69 0.686 0.682 0.681

Female (16 & older) 0.571 0.562 0.556 0.55 0.547



Table A9: Demographics

Variable 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Starting population 1974.641 2015.228 2059.62 2106.777 2155.039 2204.12 2253.191 2302.312 2346.349

Births 30.783 31.178 31.618 32.108 32.618 33.134 33.637 34.095 34.465

Deaths 14.554 15.066 15.589 16.12 16.665 17.214 17.771 18.328 18.886

Natural growth 16.229 16.112 16.029 15.988 15.954 15.92 15.866 15.767 15.579

Population before migrants 1990.87 2031.339 2075.648 2122.765 2170.992 2220.04 2269.057 2318.079 2361.928

Total migrants 24.358 28.28 31.129 32.273 33.128 33.151 33.255 28.27 24.99

Economic migrants 9.993 13.448 14.404 14.796 14.892 14.195 13.558 8.614 5.279

Retired migrants 4.161 4.325 4.491 4.665 4.835 4.987 5.145 5.319 5.506

International migrants 10.561 11.149 11.736 12.323 12.91 13.497 14.084 14.266 14.448

Special pops migrants -0.358 -0.641 0.498 0.489 0.491 0.471 0.468 0.07 -0.242


Table A9: Demographics continued

Variable 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

Starting population 2386.919 2424.611 2459.835 2493.288 2525.368 2556.406 2586.817 2616.714 2646.123

Births 34.791 35.074 35.311 35.54 35.757 36.109 36.451 36.762 37.063

Deaths 19.454 20.022 20.593 21.172 21.754 22.35 22.955 23.563 24.172

Natural growth 15.337 15.051 14.718 14.368 14.004 13.758 13.497 13.199 12.891

Population before migrants 2402.256 2439.663 2474.553 2507.656 2539.371 2570.164 2600.314 2629.912 2659.014

Total migrants 22.356 20.172 18.736 17.711 17.035 16.653 16.4 16.211 16.35

Economic migrants 2.295 -0.211 -1.995 -3.354 -4.373 -5.096 -5.674 -6.166 -6.328

Retired migrants 5.686 5.85 6.015 6.174 6.345 6.501 6.63 6.75 6.867

International migrants 14.63 14.811 14.993 15.175 15.356 15.538 15.719 15.9 16.082

Special pops migrants -0.255 -0.278 -0.277 -0.283 -0.293 -0.29 -0.275 -0.273 -0.27




Table A9: Demographics continued

Variable 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Starting population 2675.364 2821.21 2969.621 3118.925 3264.134

Births 37.376 39.109 41.012 42.775 44.269

Deaths 24.784 27.875 30.796 33.344 35.462

Natural growth 12.592 11.234 10.215 9.431 8.807

Population before migrants 2687.956 2832.444 2979.836 3128.355 3272.94

Total migrants 16.53 18.051 19.598 20.205 19.006

Economic migrants -6.421 -6.028 -5.533 -6.058 -8.643

Retired migrants 6.961 7.177 7.28 7.501 7.984

International migrants 16.263 17.171 18.078 18.985 19.892

Special pops migrants -0.274 -0.268 -0.227 -0.223 -0.226

Total population (unrebased forecast) 2704.485 2850.495 2999.435 3148.56 3291.947

An affirmative action/equal opportunity institution.

Documents

Population Forecasts - Center for Business and Economic Research