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POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU | www.prb.org
Carl Haub [email protected] Senior Visiting Scholar Population Reference Bureau
Population Projections: Assumptions First, Results Second
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
World Population
1900
1.6 Billion
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
World Population
2000
6.1 Billion
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
300 200 100 00 100 200 300
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Female
Fewer young people in developed countries ensures little population growth or even population decline.
Age
Millions
Male
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision (medium variant).
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
300 200 100 00 100 200 300
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Female
Large numbers of young people in developing countries guarantee large population growth. Age
Millions
Male
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision (medium variant).
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
What’s Required for a Projection?
1. Base population 2. Assumption on the future course of fertility 3. Assumption on the future course of mortality (infant mortality, life expectancy at birth) 4. Assumption on the future course of
immigration/emigration
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
The Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
The TFR is the average number of children a woman would bear in her lifetime if the birth rate of a particular year were to remain constant.
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
The Assumption Behind the Assumption
“To achieve such reductions, it is essential that access to family planning expands, particularly in the least developed countries.”
World Population Prospects, The 2010 Revision, Highlights and Advance Tables
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
And Further to the Point…
“The urgency of realizing the projected reductions of fertility is brought into focus by considering that, if fertility were to remain constant at the levels estimated for 2005-2010, the population of the less developed regions would increase to 9.7 billion in 2050 and to 25.8 billion in 2100 instead of the 8.0 billion and 8.8 billion projected by assuming that fertility declines.”
World Population Prospects, The 2010 Revision, Highlights and Advance Tables
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
7.0
8.2
6.9
8.0
2010 2025
1982 UN projection 2010 UN projection
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, as Assessed in 1982 (medium variant) and World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision (medium variant).
World Population for 2010 and 2025 in Two UN Projections
Billions
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
1.2
1.6
1.0
1.4
0
1
1
2
2
2010 2025
1982 UN projection 2010 UN projection
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, as Assessed in 1982 (medium variant) and World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision (medium variant).
Population of sub-Saharan Africa for 2010 and 2025 in Two UN Projections
Billions
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
5.3
2.2
5.6
2.12.5
3.1 3.2
4.0
6.0
2.5
5.6
2.31.9
3.6
2.2
6.4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
BurkinaFaso
India Nigeria Indonesia Brazil Pakistan Bangladesh Burundi
1982 ProspectsCurrent TFR
TFR for 2010 as Projected in 1982 and Likely Current Value Children per woman
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, as Assessed in 1982 (medium variant)
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
1950-1955
1955-1960
1960-1965
1965-1970
1970-1975
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
2000-2005
2005-2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
2020-2025
2025-2030
2030-2035
2035-2040
2040-2045
2045-2050
EasternMiddleSouthernWestern
Estimated and Projected TFR for Regions of Africa to 2050
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision (medium variant).
Children per woman
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020
UN MediumIDBSurveys
TFR Assumptions, Mozambique, Two Projections vs. Surveys
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision and U.S. Census Bureau, International Database
Children per woman
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020
UN MediumIDBSurveys
TFR Assumptions, Bangladesh, Two Projections vs. Surveys
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision and U.S. Census Bureau, International Database
Children per woman
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020
UN MediumIDBSurveys
TFR Assumptions, Rwanda, Two Projections vs. Surveys
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision and U.S. Census Bureau, International Database
Children per woman
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Children per woman
Demographic and Health Surveys. Note: Gray circles indicate a census estimate
Future fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa is quite doubtful, based on the results of recent surveys.
Circles indicate survey/census years
Niger
Ghana
Zambia
Nigeria
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Children per woman
Demographic and Health Surveys and various surveys in Pakistan.
Slow or little fertility decline is not confined to sub-Saharan Africa.
Circles indicate survey years
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Pakistan
Indonesia
Jordan Egypt
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
6
2
11
3
10
1 1
12
1
27
3
1
3
6
221
13
0
6
12
0
6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Eastern Africa Middle Africa Southern Africa Western Africa
PillIUDInjectionCondomFemale sterilizationTraditional Methods
United Nations Population Division, World Contraceptive Use, 2011
In Sub-Saharan Africa, Short-acting Methods Predominate
Percent of married women using
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
5.0
4.4 4.2
3.3
5.6 5.4
2.3
5.0
6.3 6.1
3.7
5.7
4.3
2.4
5.1
6.4
4.8
4.1
6.3
5.4
2.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Sierra Leone Burundi Ethiopia Zimbabwe Angola Tanzania Peru
UN MediumIDBSurvey
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision and Demographic and Health Surveys and other surveys
Projected TFRs vs. Recent Surveys, ca. 2010
Children per woman
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
4
24
15
3
16
27
1
10
37
1
9
38
Too low Satisfactory Too high
1976198619962009
Reported Government View on the Level of the Birth Rate, Sub-Saharan Africa, 1976 - 2009
Number of Countries
United Nations Population Division, World Population Policies, 2009
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1800
1810
1820
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2006
BangladeshU.S.
Lifetime children per woman
Fertility Decline in Bangladesh and the United States, 1800 - 2006 Two Very Different Histories
Population Reference Bureau, NCHS, DHS surveys
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1950-1955 1955-1960 1960-1965 1965-1970 1970-1975 1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010
In quite a few developing countries, fertility decline has been rather smooth.
United Nations Population Division; and Demographic and Health Surveys.
Lifetime births per woman
Tunisia
Brazil
Dom. Rep.
Thailand
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1950-1955
1955-1960
1960-1965
1965-1970
1970-1975
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
2000-2005
2005-2010
ThailandMalaysiaTunisiaBrazilDominican Republic
Other Developing Countries with Significant Fertility Decline
Population Reference Bureau, DHS surveys
Lifetime births per woman
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
1950-1955
1955-1960
1960-1965
1965-1970
1970-1975
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
2000-2005
2005-2010
Total Fertility Rate, Sri Lanka, 1950-55 to 2005-2010
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision (medium variant).
Children per woman
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9
3.2 3.12.9 2.9 2.9 2.8
3.3 3.43.2 3.3 3.2
0
1
2
3
1988
1992
1995
2000
2005
2008
1987
1991
1994
1997
2002
-0320
0719
9119
9619
9920
0220
07
Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS)
How Many Children Do Women Say Are “Ideal?”
Egypt Indonesia Jordan
Latest DHS total fertility rate in red 3.0 2.6 3.8
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
6.8
5.65.1 5.3
6.25.7
5.1 5.1
8.5 8.59.1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1988
-8919
95
2000
-0120
0619
9219
96
2001
-0220
0719
9219
9820
06
Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS)
How Many Children Do Women Say Are “Ideal?” – con’t
Uganda Zambia. Niger 6.2 6.2 7.1
Latest DHS total fertility rate in red
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
6 6 6 6
5
4
3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Niger 2006 Mozambique2011
Burkina Faso2010
Nigeria 2008 Zambia 2007 Jordan 2009 Pakistan2006-2007
With How Many Living Children Do Half of Women Say That They Wish to Cease Childbearing?
Demographic and Health Surveys.
++ + + +
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Fertility Rates in India Are Not Uniform, 2008 Data
2.6
2.0
2.9
3.9 3.8
3.33.0
2.6 2.5 2.5 2.42.2
2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7
INDIA
URBAN
RURALBihar
Uttar P
radesh
Rajasth
an
Chhattisgarh
Assam
Haryana
Gujarat
Orissa J&
K
Karnata
ka
Mahara
shtraDelh
i
Punjab
West Ben
gal
Himach
al Prad
esh
Andhra Prad
esh
Kerala
Tamil Nadu
Registrar General of India, Sample Registration System
Lifetime births per woman
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
21.5
15.013.5
7.1
4.1
15.6
6.7 6.24.7
7.1
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Zambia Kenya Central Af. Rep. Cote d'Ivoire Uganda
Before surveyAfter survey
UNAIDS and Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS)
Before Nationally-representative Surveys Were Taken, the Prevalence of HIV Was Often Overestimated – but Still High
Percent of adult population, ages 15-49 with HIV
Note: DHS Surveys from 2003 to 2006
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Total Fertility Rates, Selected EU 15 Countries and the U.S., 1960 - 2011
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
GermanySwedenItalyFranceU.S.A.
Council of Europe, Recent demographic developments in Europe and national statistics websites
Children per woman
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
Female
Age
Percent
Male
Source: Federal Statistical Office of Germany, Statistical Yearbook, 2010 (2009 data).
Small numbers of young people in many developed countries have all but guaranteed fewer future births.
Germany, by age and sex
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Females
Population of Japan by Age and Sex, 1 December, 2009
Japan Statistics Bureau
Age
Millions
Males
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
20.5
6.5
9.1
2.1
7.56.5
5.6
0.9 0.9
23.2
19.6
14.1 14.113.1
10.4
8.4
1.7 1.1
Switzerla
nd
Irelan
d
Sweden
Spain
German
yU.K
.
Malaysia
Japan
Jamaic
a
19902010
Population of Foreign Stock, Selected Countries, 1990 and 2010
Percent
United Nations, International Migrant Stock, the 2008 Revision
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision (medium variant).
World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Developing Countries
Developed Countries
Billions
Virtually all population growth is in the world’s poorest countries.
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
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