Possible Detection of Neutrinos from a Solar Flare Jere Jenkins Ephraim Fischbach John Buncher Tom Gruenwald Tasneem Mohsinally Dennis Krause Josh Mattes

Possible Detection of Neutrinos from a Solar Flare

Jere JenkinsEphraim Fischbach

John BuncherTom Gruenwald

Tasneem MohsinallyDennis Krause

Josh MattesJohn Newport

A New Test of Randomness

Data from: Alburger, et al., Earth and Planet. Sci. Lett., 78, (1986) 168-176

Normalized BNL With Earth-Sun Distance

0.997

0.998

0.999

1.000

1.001

1.002

1.003

1.004

08

/81

02

/82

09

/82

03

/83

10

/83

04

/84

11

/84

06

/85

12

/85

07

/86

Date

No

rma

lize

d B

NL

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.99

1.00

1.01

1.02

1.03

1.04

1/R

^2

(a

.u.^

2)

Normalized Un-decayed 1/R 2̂

Correlation = 0.42, 297 Points, prob=4x10-14


7 Pt Avg'd Normalized BNL With Earth-Sun Distance

0.998500

0.999000

0.999500

1.000000

1.000500

1.001000

1.001500

1.002000

08

/81

02

/82

09

/82

03

/83

10

/83

04

/84

11

/84

06

/85

12

/85

07

/86

Date

No

rma

lize

d B

NL

0.960000

0.970000

0.980000

0.990000

1.000000

1.010000

1.020000

1.030000

1.040000

1/R

^2

(a

.u.^

2)

Un-decayed 7pt avg 1/R 2̂

Correlation = 0.58, 289 Points, prob=2x10-27

Data from Siegert, et al., Appl. Radiat. Isot. 49, 1397 (1998) Fig. 1

Raw Undecayed 226Ra PTB Data with Earth-Sun Distance

0.9994

0.9996

0.9998

1

1.0002

1.0004

1.0006

1.0008

1.001

3/2

3/8

3

3/2

2/8

4

3/2

2/8

5

3/2

2/8

6

3/2

2/8

7

3/2

1/8

8

3/2

1/8

9

3/2

1/9

0

3/2

1/9

1

3/2

0/9

2

3/2

0/9

3

3/2

0/9

4

3/2

0/9

5

3/1

9/9

6

3/1

9/9

7

3/1

9/9

8

3/1

9/9

9

3/1

8/0

0

Date

No

rmal

ized

226

Ra

Dat

a

0.960

0.970

0.980

0.990

1.000

1.010

1.020

1.030

1.040

1/R

^2

(a.u

.^2)

ln(undecayed) 1/R^2 (a.u)^2

Correlation = 0.62, 1974 Points, prob=5.1x10-210


7 Pt Avg Undecayed 226Ra PTB Data with Earth-Sun Distance

0.9995

0.9996

0.9997

0.9998

0.9999

1

1.0001

1.0002

1.0003

1.0004

1.0005

3/2

3/8

3

3/2

2/8

4

3/2

2/8

5

3/2

2/8

6

3/2

2/8

7

3/2

1/8

8

3/2

1/8

9

3/2

1/9

0

3/2

1/9

1

3/2

0/9

2

3/2

0/9

3

3/2

0/9

4

3/2

0/9

5

3/1

9/9

6

3/1

9/9

7

3/1

9/9

8

3/1

9/9

9

3/1

8/0

0

Date

No

rmal

ized

226

Ra

Dat

a

0.960

0.970

0.980

0.990

1.000

1.010

1.020

1.030

1.040

1/R

^2

(a.u

.^2)


Correlation = 0.66, 1968 Points, 1.8x10-246

BNL 32Si and PTB 226Ra Data with Earth-Sun Distance

0.9985

0.999

0.9995

1

1.0005

1.001

1.0015

1.002

1983.50 1984.00 1984.50 1985.00 1985.50 1986.00 1986.50

Date

No

rmal

ized

Dec

ay D

ata

(Red

)

0.9996

0.9997

0.9998

0.9999

1

1.0001

1.0002

1.0003

1.0004

Sca

led

1/R

^2,

an

d N

orm

aliz

ed D

ecay

(B

lue)

BNL 32Si (Normalized Wk Avg) PTB 226Ra (Normalized Wk Avgd) 1/R 2̂

BNL/PTB Raw Correlation=0.56, 43 points, prob=9.4x10-5

BNL 32Si and PTB 226Ra Normalized Weekly Averaged 5 Point Smoothed

0.9985

0.999

0.9995

1

1.0005

1.001

1.0015

1983.50 1984.00 1984.50 1985.00 1985.50 1986.00 1986.50

Date

No

rmal

ized

Dec

ay D

ata

(Red

)

0.9998

0.99985

0.9999

0.99995

1

1.00005

1.0001

1.00015

Sca

led

1/R

^2,

an

d N

orm

aliz

ed D

ecay

(B

lue)

BNL 32Si 5 Pt Avg 1/R 2̂ PTB 226Ra 5 Pt Avg

BNL/PTB 5 Pt Avg'd Correlation=0.82, 39 points, prob=1.7x10-10

BNL 32Si and PTB 226Ra Normalized Weekly Averaged 7 Point Smoothed

0.9985

0.999

0.9995

1

1.0005

1.001

1.0015

1983.50 1984.00 1984.50 1985.00 1985.50 1986.00 1986.50

Date

No

rmal

ized

Dec

ay D

ata

(Red

)

0.9998

0.99985

0.9999

0.99995

1

1.00005

1.0001

1.00015

Sca

led

1/R

^2,

an

d N

orm

aliz

ed D

ecay

(B

lue)

BNL 32Si 7 Pt Avg 1/R 2̂ PTB 226Ra 7 Pt Avg

BNL/PTB 7 Pt Avg'd Correlation=0.81, 37 points, prob=1.3x10-9

Data from Yoo, et al., Phys Rev 68, 092002 (2003)

Super-K Data

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

10/28/95 3/11/97 7/24/98 12/6/99 4/19/01 9/1/02

Date

No

rmaliz

ed

Nu

-flu

x

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.99

1

1.01

1.02

1.03

1.04

Dis

tan

ce

fro

m E

to

Su

n

(1/R

^2

, a

.u.)

7 Pt Avgd Normalized Phi-nu 1/R 2̂

Correlation = 0.38, 181 points, prob=3x10-7

Motivation for Purdue Experiments

• Correlation between BNL and PTB data

• Correlation of these data with 1/R2 Earth-Sun distance

Physics 167 Mn-54 4 Hr Counts, Published, Fit and Actual Data

17.035

17.04

17.045

17.05

17.055

17.06

12/2

12/4

12/6

12/8

12/1

0

12/1

2

Date (2006)

ln(4

hr

cou

nt)

Measured Published Decay Fit to Actual Decayed

Sunspot 930 Source of Dec 06 Flares

Physics 167 Mn-54 4 Hr Counts, Published, Fit and Actual Data

17.02

17.025

17.03

17.035

17.04

17.045

17.05

17.055

17.0612

/2

12/4

12/6

12/8

12/1

0

12/1

2

12/1

4

12/1

6

12/1

8

Date (2006)

ln(4

hr

cou

nt)

Measured Published Decay Fit to Actual Decayed

(7.51±1.07) x 105

Events missing

Physics 167 Mn-54 Consecutive 4 hr Counts Normalized with Linear GEOS11 x-ray Data

0.9997

0.99975

0.9998

0.99985

0.9999

0.99995

1

1.00005

1.000111

/29

12/4

12/9

12/1

4

12/1

9

12/2

4

12/2

9

1/3

1/8

Date (2006)

ln(4

hr

cou

nt)

/lin

e fi

t va

lue(

t)

0.0E+00

1.0E-04

2.0E-04

3.0E-04

4.0E-04

5.0E-04

6.0E-04

7.0E-04

8.0E-04

9.0E-04

W/m

^2

Measured X-Ray GEOS11Long

Physics 167 Mn-54 Consecutive 4 hr Counts Normalized with GEOS11 x-ray Data

0.9997

0.99975

0.9998

0.99985

0.9999

0.99995

1

1.00005

1.0001

11/2

9

12/4

12/9

12/1

4

12/1

9

12/2

4

12/2

9

1/3

1/8

Date (2006)

ln(4

hr

ct)/

line

fit

1.0E-09

1.0E-08

1.0E-07

1.0E-06

1.0E-05

1.0E-04

1.0E-03

1.0E-02

1.0E-01

1.0E+00

W/m

^2

Measured X-Ray GEOS11Long

PHARM All Near Mn-54 Consecutive 4 hr Counts Normalized

0.9998

0.99985

0.9999

0.99995

1

1.00005

1.0001

10/1

5

10/2

0

10/2

5

10/3

0

11/4

11/9

11/1

4

11/1

9

11/2

4

11/2

9

Elapsed Days

ln(4

hr

cou

nt)

/lin

e fi

t va

lue(

t)

0.0E+00

1.0E-06

2.0E-06

3.0E-06

4.0E-06

5.0E-06

6.0E-06

7.0E-06

8.0E-06

9.0E-06

1.0E-05

W/m

^2

Measured X-ray SHORT X-Ray LONG

Chen, Okutsu, and Longuski

Arrival 5/25/2008

Launch 8/3/2007

( )1-

(0)

N t

N

0 50 100 150 200 250 300-0.005

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

Time (Days since launch)

32Si

226Ra



0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900-0.18

-0.16

-0.14

-0.12

-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

Time (Days since launch)

( )1

(0)

N t

N

32Si

226Ra

Potential Missions for Experiment

• Monitor decay rate on Earth.– Precisely measure variations in decay rates between periapsis and

apoapsis.• Stable orbit around stable Lagrange points.

– May have significant difference between apoapsis and periapsis.• Mars Science Laboratory.

– Radioisotope power system for generation of electricity from the heat of radioactive decay.

• Jupiter Polar Orbiter (Juno).– Map Jupiter's gravitational and magnetic fields.

• Europa Jupiter System Mission.– Likely to have radioisotope thermoelectric generator (RTG) on

board.• Titan Saturn System Mission.

– Likely presence of RTG onboard.• Europa Astrobiology Lander.

– Likely presence of RTG onboard.• Solar Probe Plus

– Spacecraft designed to plunge deep into the sun's atmosphere • Heliophysical Explorers Solar Orbiters and Sentinels.

– Multiple close approaches to the sun.

NASA’s Upcoming Missions

Mars Science Laboratory

Launch: September 2009

• Can measure radiation produced by the interaction of space radiation with the Martian atmosphere and surface rocks and soils.

• Carries radioisotope power system to generate electricity from the heat of plutonium's radioactive decay.

Juno

Launch: August 2011

•Will precisely map Jupiter's gravitational and magnetic fields to assess the distribution of mass in Jupiter's interior, including properties of the planet's structure and dynamics.


Spatial Variation of the Fine Structure Constant

For alpha decay (e.g., 226Ra 222Rn + 4He)

1

4Zv

c

6.310 3

From our 226Ra data,

4 10 4

310 6

This may be incompatible with existing WEP and 5th force constraints.

References: D. J. Shaw, gr-qc/0702090; J.D. Barrow and D. J. Shaw, arXiv:0806:4317; J.-P.

Uzan, Rev. Mod. Phys. 75, 403 (2003)

Possible Mechanism

Beta decay formulae

Beta decay Formulae

Variation in Solar Neutrino FluxddE

E E2 me2 (E0 E)2

1.For -decay, where is extremely sensitive to small shifts in E0

2.Assume E0 E0+, where arises from solar neutrinos, then

3.Next, assumewhere

4.For an unpolarized sample,

(E0 E)2 (E0 E)2 2(E0 E) 2

1 2 1 23ˆ ˆ[3( )( )

Ar r

r

1e , 2 p,e,n,e

(E0 E)2 (E0 E)2 2

Variation in Solar Neutrino Flux (cont’d)

5.Compare this to the change induced by

2 2 2 2 20

1 ( ) ,

2v vFor E E m m

(E0 E)2 (E0 E) (E0 E)2 mv2

m2 0

2 2 2

2 2 2

= 100 eV to 10 eV .

50 eV to 5 eV

vm

This may be compatible with current limits on neutrino magnetic dipole moments.

Summary

1. BNL and PTB data indicate an annual modulation of 32Si and 226Ra decay rates strongly correlated with 1/R2

2. Data taken during the 12-Dec 2006 solar flare on 54Mn also showed a response of the decay rate to solar flux.

3. These data are consistent with a modulation of nuclear decay rates by solar neutrinos and, perhaps, by some other field.

4. Detailed mechanisms to account for these data can be tested in upcoming NASA Mars missions and the NASA Sentinels mission.

END

PTB Data Normalized with Error Bars

5.582

5.583

5.584

5.585

5.586

5.587

5.588

5.589

5.59

5.591

2/18/82 11/14/84 8/11/87 5/7/90 1/31/93 10/28/95 7/24/98 4/19/01

Date

ln(N

orm

aliz

ed C

urr

ent)

ln (undecayed)

Normalized BNL With Earth-Sun Distance

0.996000

0.997000

0.998000

0.999000

1.000000

1.001000

1.002000

1.003000

1.004000

1.005000

08

/81

02

/82

09

/82

03

/83

10

/83

04

/84

11

/84

06

/85

12

/85

07

/86

Date

No

rma

lize

d B

NL

0.960000

0.970000

0.980000

0.990000

1.000000

1.010000

1.020000

1.030000

1.040000

1/R

^2

(a

.u.^

2)

Normalized Un-decayed 1/R 2̂

Correlation = 0.42, 297 Points


BNL 32Si/36Cl Ratio Raw Data

y = -8E-06x + 0.9255

R2 = 0.9487

0.682

0.684

0.686

0.688

0.690

0.692

0.694

0.696

0.698

0.700

8/2/81 2/18/82 9/6/82 3/25/83 10/11/83 4/28/84 11/14/84 6/2/85 12/19/85 7/7/86

Time (GMT)

A/B

Ra

w

A/B Linear (A/B)


BNL 32Si/36Cl Ratio Normalized Data

0.693

0.693

0.694

0.694

0.695

0.695

0.696

0.696

0.697

0.697

0.698

8/2/81 2/18/82 9/6/82 3/25/83 10/11/83 4/28/84 11/14/84 6/2/85 12/19/85 7/7/86

Time (GMT)

A/B

No

rma

lized

A/B

Normalized BNL 32Si Data With Solar Latitude

0.6925

0.6930

0.6935

0.6940

0.6945

0.6950

0.6955

0.6960

0.6965

0.6970

0.6975

8/2/81 2/18/82 9/6/82 3/25/83 10/11/83 4/28/84 11/14/84 6/2/85 12/19/85 7/7/86

Time (GMT)

A/B

No

rmaliz

ed

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

So

lar

Lat

itu

de

A/B Solar Latitude

Data from: Alburger, et al., Earth and Planet. Sci. Lett., 78, (1986) 168-176,And NASA, http://omniweb.gsfc.nasa.gov/

Data from: Alburger, et al., Earth and Planet. Sci. Lett., 78, (1986) 168-176,And NASA, http://omniweb.gsfc.nasa.gov/

Normalized BNL 32Si 7 Point Average With Solar Latitude

0.6935

0.694

0.6945

0.695

0.6955

0.696

0.6965

8/2/81 2/18/82 9/6/82 3/25/83 10/11/83 4/28/84 11/14/84 6/2/85 12/19/85 7/7/86

Time (GMT)

No

rmal

ized

A/B

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

So

lar

Lat

itu

de

A/B Solar Latatude

R tt s

( ). cos tan . tan .

1

1 0 0167102 2 1033998 100377 101 7 1

a.u.

Earth-Sun Distance as a Function of Time

t = time in secondst0 =January 5, Perihelion each year

Correlation Between Flare and Decay Data

• Undecayed the 54Mn data, and then normalized to the average. Each data point represents the subsequent 4 hour count (approximately 25 million events/4 hours live time)

• Plotted along with the x-ray data to show timing of the flare event

PTB 226Ra Data

y = -0.0000012491x + 5.6238014201

R2 = 0.8618942992

5.574

5.576

5.578

5.58

5.582

5.584

5.586

5.588

5.59

2/18/19820:00

11/14/19840:00

8/11/19870:00

5/7/19900:00

1/31/19930:00

10/28/19950:00

7/24/19980:00

4/19/20010:00

Date

ln(c

ou

nt)

ln(Count) Linear (ln(Count))

Data from Siegert, et al., Appl. Radiat. Isot. 49, 1397 (1998) Fig. 1T1/2 = ~1518 y


Un-decayed PTB 226Ra Data

5.582

5.583

5.584

5.585

5.586

5.587

5.588

5.589

5.59

5.591

1/4/

83

1/4/

84

1/3/

85

1/3/

86

1/4/

87

1/4/

88

1/3/

89

1/3/

90

1/4/

91

1/4/

92

1/3/

93

1/3/

94

1/4/

95

1/4/

96

1/3/

97

1/3/

98

1/4/

99

1/4/

00

Date

ln(u

n-d

ec

ay

ed

co

un

t)

ln(undecayed)


5 Pt Avg'd Normalized BNL With Earth-Sun Distance

0.998500

0.999000

0.999500

1.000000

1.000500

1.001000

1.001500

1.002000

1.002500

08

/81

02

/82

09

/82

03

/83

10

/83

04

/84

11

/84

06

/85

12

/85

07

/86

Date

No

rma

lize

d B

NL

0.960000

0.970000

0.980000

0.990000

1.000000

1.010000

1.020000

1.030000

1.040000

1/R

^2

(a

.u.^

2)

Un-decayed 5 pt avg 1/R 2̂

Correlation = 0.57, 293 Points

Un-decayed PTB Data with Raw and 5 Pt Averaged Counts

5.582

5.583

5.584

5.585

5.586

5.587

5.588

5.589

5.59

5.591

1/4

/83

1/4

/84

1/3

/85

1/3

/86

1/4

/87

1/4

/88

1/3

/89

1/3

/90

1/4

/91

1/4

/92

1/3

/93

1/3

/94

1/4

/95

1/4

/96

1/3

/97

1/3

/98

1/4

/99

1/4

/00

Date

ln(u

nd

ec

ay

ed

co

un

t)

5 Point Averaged Normalized Counts Raw Normalized Counts

03/2

2/8

4



5 Pt Avg Undecayed 226Ra PTB Data with Earth-Sun Distance

0.9994

0.9996

0.9998

1

1.0002

1.0004

1.0006

3/2

3/8

3

3/2

2/8

4

3/2

2/8

5

3/2

2/8

6

3/2

2/8

7

3/2

1/8

8

3/2

1/8

9

3/2

1/9

0

3/2

1/9

1

3/2

0/9

2

3/2

0/9

3

3/2

0/9

4

3/2

0/9

5

3/1

9/9

6

3/1

9/9

7

3/1

9/9

8

3/1

9/9

9

3/1

8/0

0

Date

No

rmal

ized

226

Ra

Dat

a

0.960

0.970

0.980

0.990

1.000

1.010

1.020

1.030

1.040

1/R

^2

(a.u

.^2)


Correlation = 0.65, 1970 Points, prob=6.4x10-237

PHARM All Near Mn-54 Consecutive 4 hr Counts

y = -0.0022106x + 103.3939495

R2 = 0.9982370

y = -0.000354849x + 30.958741922

R2 = 0.213745887

17.07

17.08

17.09

17.1

17.11

17.12

17.13

17.14

17.15

17.16

17.17

10/1

9

10/2

4

10/2

9

11/3

11/8

11/1

3

11/1

8

11/2

3

11/2

8

Elapsed Days

ln(4

hr

cou

nt)

Measured Flat Line Published Linear (Measured) Linear (Flat Line)

New Data Set with HPGe Detector

• Began a new 54Mn measurement using a HPGe detector inside a heavy shield, starting Dec 2007

• Using same 4 hour live time counting

Comparison of BNL Data to PTB Data

• Took averages of all measurements made during a calendar week for both data sets (similar to what was done by BNL group)

• Eliminated all data points that did not coincide (i.e. did not have associated measurement in the other set.)

• Performed standard correlation between the data sets.

Start Stop Total events slope (a)= σa= T1/2 Significance

PHARM 0-39 10/19/06 17:10 10/26/06 16:18 1,125,533,997 -0.002057562 1.45E-05 336.878 -11.28

PHARM 40-79 10/26/06 20:35 11/02/06 18:33 1,107,115,186 -0.002137321 1.48E-05 324.307 -5.65

PHARM 80-119 11/02/06 22:50 11/10/06 16:04 1,087,799,523 -0.002684431 1.27E-05 258.210 36.59

PHARM 120-159 11/10/06 20:20 11/17/06 18:55 1,070,959,137 -0.002001981 1.49E-05 346.230 -14.69

PHARM 160-199 11/17/06 23:11 11/24/06 21:36 1,055,144,190 -0.002228968 1.5E-05 310.972 0.55

PHYS 167 0-39 12/2/06 16:40 12/09/06 14:47 1,013,691,320 -0.002403516 1.54E-05 288.389 11.89

PHYS 167 40-79 12/09/06 19:02 12/16/06 17:00 995,311,701 -0.002616834 1.55E-05 264.880 25.55

PHYS 167 80-119 12/16/06 21:15 12/23/06 19:05 978,797,865 -0.00222234 1.56E-05 311.890 0.10

PHYS 167 120-159 12/23/06 23:20 12/30/06 20:59 964,155,029 -0.002181871 1.58E-05 317.685 -2.46

Comparison of Decays Oct-Dec

0.9986

0.9988

0.999

0.9992

0.9994

0.9996

0.9998

1

1.0002

0 10 20 30 40 50

Count #

ln[C

R(n

)]/ln

[CR

(1)]

Set 1

Set 2

Set 3

Set 4

Set 5

Set 6

Set 7

Set 8

Set 9

Linear (Set 4)

Linear (Set 1)

Linear (Set 7)

Linear (Set 3)

Linear (Set 6)

Linear (Set 8)

Linear (Set 2)

Linear (Set 9)

54Mn Decay Measurement in EE B77

y = -0.00220108x + 102.90490341

R2 = 0.99996634

15.7515.7715.7915.8115.8315.8515.8715.8915.9115.9315.9515.9715.9916.0116.0316.0516.0716.0916.1116.13

14-Nov 4-Dec 24-Dec 13-Jan 2-Feb 22-Feb 13-Mar 2-Apr 22-Apr 12-May 1-Jun

Count Start Time (EST, 2007-08)

ln(4

hr

live

co

un

t)

ln(gross) Published Decay Linear (ln(gross))

Measured from This Dataslope (a)= -0.00220064; λpublished= 0.002220771T1/2 = 314.9753347 days (314.97533(2))

σa2= 5.94691E-14

σa= 2.43863E-07

Difference= -2.01319E-05Our Significance = 82.55 Theirs = 47.59

χ2= 2798.162

χ2/d.o.f.= 3.058 917 points entered

November ln(gross) decay with Ap Magnetic Data

17.07

17.09

17.11

17.13

17.15

17.17

10/15 10/20 10/25 10/30 11/4 11/9 11/14 11/19 11/24 11/29Date

ln(g

ross

cts

)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Mag

net

ic In

dex (A

p)

ln(gross) Ap Linear (ln(gross))

Major Solar Storm 11 Nov

November ln(gross) decay with Kp Magnetic Data

17.07

17.08

17.09

17.1

17.11

17.12

17.13

17.14

17.15

17.16

17.17

10/15 10/20 10/25 10/30 11/4 11/9 11/14 11/19 11/24 11/29Date

ln(g

ross

cts

)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Mag

net

ic In

dex (K

p)

ln(gross) Kp Linear (ln(gross))

Major Solar Storm 11 Nov

December ln(gross) decay with measured Magnetic Data

16.97

16.98

16.99

17

17.01

17.02

17.03

17.04

17.05

17.06

11/29 12/4 12/9 12/14 12/19 12/24 12/29 1/3 1/8

Date

ln(g

ros

s)

0

50

100

150

200

250

Ma

gn

eti

c In

de

x (

Ap

)

ln(gross) Ap Linear (ln(gross))

12 Dec storm

22 Dec storm

17 Dec storm

Ap Peak 00:00 12/15

December ln(gross) decay with measured Magnetic Data

16.97

16.98

16.99

17

17.01

17.02

17.03

17.04

17.05

17.06

11/29 12/4 12/9 12/14 12/19 12/24 12/29 1/3 1/8

Date

ln(g

ros

s)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Ma

gn

eti

c In

de

x (

Kp

)

ln(gross) Kp Linear (ln(gross))

12 Dec storm

22 Dec storm

17 Dec storm

Magnetic Field Sensitivity Measurements (45o Orientation)

24800

25000

25200

25400

25600

25800

26000

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

Count #

Co

un

ts/1

0s

Series1 +sigma -sigma +3sigma -3sigma

ZeroField

0 Gauss

EarthField

0.429 Gauss

2x EarthField

0.85 Gauss

EarthField

0.42Gauss

Un-decaying (flattening) Data Points

• For visual purposes, each data point is multiplied as

which offsets the exponential decrease in the count rate, and highlights the effects of fluctuations. Note: This does not change the statistical significance of the results.

Countrate e t t 0

from Siegert, et al., Appl. Radiat. Isot. 49, 1397 (1998) Fig. 1

Authors’ explanation for the apparent seasonal variations in the data from the 226Ra counts.

Background Corrected Counts with Expected Decays

y = -0.0022624x + 105.3750114

R2 = 0.9987422

y = -0.0022208x + 103.7495892

R2 = 1.0000000

16.94

16.95

16.96

16.97

16.98

16.99

17

17.01

17.02

17.03

12/2

12/4

12/6

12/8

12/1

0

12/1

2

12/1

4

12/1

6

12/1

8

12/2

0

12/2

2

12/2

4

12/2

6

12/2

8

12/3

0

1/1

1/3

1/5

Date (2006)

ln(4

hr

cou

nt)

Measured Published Decay Linear (Measured) Linear (Published Decay)


0.99988

0.9999

0.99992

0.99994

0.99996

0.99998

1

1.00002

1.00004

1.00006

1.00008

14-Nov 4-Dec 24-Dec 13-Jan 2-Feb 22-Feb 13-Mar 2-Apr 22-Apr 12-May 1-Jun


ln(4

hr

live

co

un

t)

ln(gross) Poly. (ln(gross))


y = -0.00219776x + 102.77365366

R2 = 0.99994967

15.815.8215.8415.8615.8815.9

15.9215.9415.9615.98

1616.0216.0416.0616.0816.1

16.1216.14

9-D

ec

19-D

ec

29-D

ec

8-J

an

18-J

an

28-J

an

7-F

eb

17-F

eb

27-F

eb

8-M

ar

18-M

ar

28-M

ar

7-A

pr

17-A

pr


ln(4

hr

live c

ou

nt)

ln(gross) Published Decay Linear (ln(gross))

Measured from This Data

slope (a)= -0.00219735; λpublished= 0.002220771

T1/2 = 315.446808 days (315.4468(1))

σa2= 1.16604E-13

σa= 3.41474E-07

Difference= -2.34210E-05Significance = -68.59

χ2= 2126.449

χ2/d.o.f.= 2.9493 723 points (4 hr counts) evaluatedTotal events: 6,321,993,808

Documents

Possible Detection of Neutrinos from a Solar Flare Jere Jenkins Ephraim Fischbach John Buncher Tom Gruenwald Tasneem Mohsinally Dennis Krause Josh Mattes