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A safe and robust society – where everyone takes responsibility
Possible scenarios and challenges for Possible scenarios and challenges for
CBRN preparednessCBRN preparedness
Tone D. BerganTone D. Bergan
Senior adviser, Section for Analysis and Research,Senior adviser, Section for Analysis and Research,
Directorate for Civil Protection and Emergency Planning Directorate for Civil Protection and Emergency Planning
�� DSB, CBRN cooperation, different risksDSB, CBRN cooperation, different risks
�� CBRN ChallengesCBRN Challenges
�� CBRN scenariosCBRN scenarios
�� Terrorism vs. accidents Terrorism vs. accidents –– accidents do happenaccidents do happen
�� Can we sleep at night?Can we sleep at night?
OverviewOverview
Operational conceptOperational concept�� Have full overview over developing vulnerable situations and risHave full overview over developing vulnerable situations and risksks
which threaten society which threaten society –– in peacetime and warin peacetime and war
�� Take Take initiatives to prevent accidents, disasters and other undesired initiatives to prevent accidents, disasters and other undesired occurrences and ensure that preparedness measures are adequate occurrences and ensure that preparedness measures are adequate
�� In the event of inadequate safety and preparedness measures takeIn the event of inadequate safety and preparedness measures take
initiative for follow up with the responsible authorities initiative for follow up with the responsible authorities
Class
ified
Cla
ssifi
ed
Need for an overall National planNeed for an overall National plan
�� In 1999 the Ministry of Justice and the Police decided there wasIn 1999 the Ministry of Justice and the Police decided there was a a need for an overall national plan for preparedness against weaponeed for an overall national plan for preparedness against weapons ns of mass destruction of mass destruction
�� Background: NATOBackground: NATO’’s new Strategic Concepts new Strategic Concept
�� Plan finished in 2003, and a subject/vocational group with Plan finished in 2003, and a subject/vocational group with participants from relevant professional bodies established.participants from relevant professional bodies established.
�� The aim of the National plan is to give an overview of managemenThe aim of the National plan is to give an overview of management t and coordinating mechanisms, conditions of responsibility and and coordinating mechanisms, conditions of responsibility and availability of resources.availability of resources.
�� The plan proposes interventions to be implemented, based on The plan proposes interventions to be implemented, based on already established agency preparedness and other principles of already established agency preparedness and other principles of responsibility.responsibility.
�� Reviewed and updated autum 2007Reviewed and updated autum 2007
ParticipantsParticipants
�� DSBDSB
�� Directorate for the Police, and the Police Intelligence ServiceDirectorate for the Police, and the Police Intelligence Service
�� Directorate for human healthDirectorate for human health
�� The National human health instituteThe National human health institute
�� The Defence microbiological lab.The Defence microbiological lab.
�� The Military head commandThe Military head command
�� The Military CBRN training centreThe Military CBRN training centre
�� The Defence Research EstablishmentThe Defence Research Establishment
�� The Norwegian Radiation Protection AuthorityThe Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority
�� The Food ControlThe Food Control
�� The Veterenarian instituteThe Veterenarian institute
�� Just recently: The Coastal authoritiesJust recently: The Coastal authorities
�� The Military intelligence serviceThe Military intelligence service
Means of mass destruction (MMD)Means of mass destruction (MMD)
�� ““Means of mass destruction is a term applied to Means of mass destruction is a term applied to
radiological, biological and chemical substances that can radiological, biological and chemical substances that can
potentially cause injury to persons or loss of human life potentially cause injury to persons or loss of human life
on a on a large scalelarge scale, heavy material damage, and the , heavy material damage, and the
destruction of infrastructure. destruction of infrastructure.
�� In addition, the threat to use as well as the actual use of In addition, the threat to use as well as the actual use of
such means is because of their nature likely to create such means is because of their nature likely to create
great fear and concerngreat fear and concern among the population.among the population.””
CBRNCBRN
�� Chemical, biological, radioactive and nuclearChemical, biological, radioactive and nuclear
�� Chemical, biological, radioactive and nuclear explosivesChemical, biological, radioactive and nuclear explosives
CBRNECBRNE
�� Police:Police: RSC and OnRSC and On--Scene Coordinator.Scene Coordinator.
No CBRN equipmentNo CBRN equipment
�� Ambulance:Ambulance: No CBRN equipment No CBRN equipment –– decontamination u.decontamination u.
Require clean patientsRequire clean patients
�� Fire Brigades:Fire Brigades: Initially OSCInitially OSC
Knowledge and some equipmentKnowledge and some equipment
Lead agency regarding technical handling Lead agency regarding technical handling
�� Civil defence:Civil defence: Decontamination units Decontamination units –– response time response time
(hours)(hours)
Knowledge and some equipment Knowledge and some equipment
Accidents do Accidents do
happen!happen!
�� Chlorine gas Chlorine gas –– attack on a.....attack on a.....
A safe and robust society – where everyone takes responsibility
The likelihood of a catastrophe occurring within the next 5-10 years?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
War
on N
orw
egia
n
terr
itory
Food s
upply
crisis
Nucle
ar
accid
ent
Bre
ak d
ow
n in
pow
er
supply
/IT
/com
munic
atio
n
Pandem
ic flu
Acts
of te
rror
Majo
r pollu
tion
Industr
ial o
g d
angero
us
goods a
ccid
ent
Public
tra
nsport
accid
ent
Natu
ral d
isaste
rs
Perc
en
tag
e (
%)
ThreatsThreats
�� Regular threats Regular threats –– occur often occur often –– the system learns how to the system learns how to
respond respond –– and it is economical feasible to have and it is economical feasible to have
emergency preparedness plans and equipmentemergency preparedness plans and equipment
�� Irregular threats Irregular threats –– one of a kind events. Practically one of a kind events. Practically
impossible to provide a standard response. Unexpected, impossible to provide a standard response. Unexpected,
although they are imaginablealthough they are imaginable
�� Unexampled events Unexampled events –– virtually impossible to imaginevirtually impossible to imagine
One of a kind eventOne of a kind event……....
Unexampled eventsUnexampled events……....
Madrid
�March 11th, 2004
�192 dead,1500+ wounded...
�Ten bombs at four different
places in the same city at the
same time…
London
July 7th, 2005
3 subways
1 bus
52 dead
700 + wounded
Possible situations with extremely low Possible situations with extremely low
probability but tremendous consequencesprobability but tremendous consequences
�� ““Thinking the unthinkableThinking the unthinkable”” –– although there are attacks although there are attacks
and accidents that would be characterised as and accidents that would be characterised as ““unrealisticunrealistic””
�� ““What ifWhat if…….?.?”” –– The will to do intentional harmThe will to do intentional harm
�� These scenarios will never be dimensional for emergency These scenarios will never be dimensional for emergency
preparedness systems preparedness systems –– but can pinpoint weaknesses but can pinpoint weaknesses
and especially the need for coand especially the need for co--operationoperation
The need for quick responseThe need for quick response……..
Immediate response Immediate response –– or or –– pause and assess?pause and assess?
�� Running around as headless chickens?Running around as headless chickens?
�� Or Or –– look like Bambi trapped in look like Bambi trapped in
the headlight?the headlight?
Some scenariosSome scenarios
�� A tool for planning and exercisesA tool for planning and exercises
�� Balance between realistic and imaginativeBalance between realistic and imaginative
�� Must be developed in further detailMust be developed in further detail
Example 1Example 1
�� Radioactive material in combination with a biological Radioactive material in combination with a biological
substancesubstance
How to detect and deal with it?
�Detection
�Perimeter
� Information to the public
�Decontamination
�Clean zones
Example 2Example 2
�� Hazardous goods Hazardous goods –– traffic accident in populated areatraffic accident in populated area
Example 3Example 3
Example 3Example 3
Exercise Oslo 2006Exercise Oslo 2006
More common situationsMore common situations……..
�� Suspicious packages and bagsSuspicious packages and bags
�� Unknown substancesUnknown substances
�� Challenging analysisChallenging analysis
Coming workComing work
�� Evaluate the investments following Evaluate the investments following
September 11September 11thth 20012001
�� Scenario workshopsScenario workshops
�� Develop scenarios in more detailDevelop scenarios in more detail
Assessing the capability and Assessing the capability and
intentions in different groupsintentions in different groups
Abu Hamza
A safe and robust society – where everyone takes responsibility
CivilianCivilian--military comilitary co--operationoperation
Gro Harlem BruntlandGro Harlem Bruntland::
““ We can never avoid the dilemma that all We can never avoid the dilemma that all
our knowledge is of the past, while all our our knowledge is of the past, while all our
decisions are about the futuredecisions are about the future””
•Are we succeeding in thinking the
unthinkable?
•Are the systems robust and versatile enough
to handle CBRN accidents and disasters?
•Should we in the Nordic countries rest assure
that the US and UK will be much more
attractive terrorist targets, also in the future?
•Can we sleep at night?