Post-Baby Boom Era and Local Governments

8/13/2019 Post-Baby Boom Era and Local Governments

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356 TODD TUCKERthe average percentage of elderly within the 10 counties along the Fron tRange that were studied will be nearly double the U.S. census nationalestimate of 20 percent. In some instances, as much as 55 percent of thecounty population will be age 65 or older.

The implication of a change from 10 percent to 30 to 55 percentof a county population over the age of 65 is significant, particularly inrural counties with small and dispersed populations, such as Clear CreekCounty, Colorado. For counties that are experiencing a high rate ofpopulation growth, such as in parts of Weld County Colorado, theimpacts of an aging constituency and nation may b e less dramatic becauseyounger people have been the primary driver of continued growth, buteven fast-growing counties will experience challenges related to serviceincreases for the elderly and worker shortages.

Furthermore, high rates of population growth may not result in abalance in the age distribution in Colorado counties because Coloradois a destination for mobile retirees. Thus, projections for the percentageof elderly for all counties in Colorado could well be low. Similar projec-tions also indicate that the census mortality estimates for those aged 65and older are high.

While there are advantages to continued growth and an increasingpopulation of retirees, there will also be challenges for local governmentsand businesses, including potential increases in demands for services forthe elderly, shortages of skilled labor, and reductions in revenues andfederal funding assistance for local governments.

Projections of increased demand an d a oflabor have alreadybegun to appear in the United States. Wh ile working on a 2004 researchproject for the National Association of Counties (NACo), a study teamfound that several counties anticipate increased demand as a result of anaging constituency and increased attrition caused by an aging workforce.3Local governments are already experiencing labor shortages in health care,education, and law enforcement, and these shortages are starting to affectother labor sectors across the nation.

Labor shortages and increased service demands are expected in fiveand 10 years by several Colorado counties in a variety of service sectors,including aging services, social services, law enforcement, public works,and fire (see Figure 2). The study (Clark 2004) prepared for NACo alsofound that 50 percent of the local government workforce is potentiallyeligible for retirement. Furthermore, few local governments indicatedthat they provide any training, development, retention, or recruitmentprograms for their more junior employees.

Although not the focus of this Colorado case study, it was observed

Does Age Matter? ocal Governments in the Post Baby Boom Era 357FIGUR Percentage of County Departments in the Front Rangeof Cqlorado That Expect Wo rkforce Shortages and Increased ServiceDemand in Five and 10 Years

Workforce Increase inshortages service deman dIn five In 10 In five In 10Department years ( ) years ( ) years ( ) years ( )Sheriff 43 29 43 43Social services 43 14 86 43Public works 43 43 29 0Fire 14 43 43 14Revenue and taxation 14 43 14 14Court system 14 43 14 14Transportation 14 14 57 29Utilities 14 29 29 14Aging services 14 14 100 57that global shifts in demographics will also affect the revenue stream forthe federal governme nt in the United States, which will result in fundingreductions for local governments. In other words, as the global populationages, particularly in the industrialized nations of North America, Europe,and much of Asia, global production will decline. 4 This trend will impactthe global economy adversely.

The dema nd for qualified workers also will increase as nations struggleto maintain historic productivity levels and provide services for theirpopulations. If this observation is realized, revenue allocations and reduc-tions will dilute government resources around the globe.

Another study prepared for NACo shows that a shortage of skilledlabor in the United States has affected efforts to promote new economicdevelopment and the expansion of an existing economic base in the5private sector. Reduction s in the econ omic base can result in a levelingor reduction in revenues for local governments by affecting sales taxreturns and property valuations. Studies also suggest that to maintainhistoric levels of economic productivity and domestic output, the U.S.workforce will have to increase by 58 million during the next 30 years. 6

These studies further indicate that the number of available workerswill increase by less than half that amount. In addition to the short supplyoflabor the education and skills necessary to maintain historic levels ofproduc tivity are also in doubt, exacerbating the labor and revenue deficit. 7


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Furthennore, although 76 million young people will be moving into theu s workforce over the next 20 years, the longevity of earlier generationswith a combined population of 191 million will increase the elderlydependency ratio (the number of working-age individuals compa red withthe number of retirees) from the current level of 5 to 1 to a level in 2030of2.6 to 1

In other words, by 2030, there will be 2.6 people between 15 and64 for every person over the age of 65; and in some industrialized nationsthis ratio will be reduced to nearly 1 to 1. This level has changed signifi-candy since the 1960s, when the number of workers to retirees was 7 to1 in the United States. Wha t s more , this figure does not include thechild dependency ratio that further reduces the number of workers tononworkers. As a result of the changing demographics caused by increasedhealth and longevity and the increased cost of health care, it is expectedthat there will not be enough workers in the generations succeeding thebaby boomers to adequately fund and provide services or to meet historicproductivity levels.8

Consequendy, the burden of welfare programs will increase for thesefuture workers; and unless the productivity of the average worker canincrease significantly over the next 20 years, the overall productivityoutput in the United States and other industrialized nations will declineas there will not be enough qualified labor to meet the demand.

The effects of a decline in productivity will include reductions inrevenues, which in turn create fiscal challenges for local governments.These fiscal challenges could lead to significant social implications, includ-ing potential cuts to Medicare and Medicaid. Although the NationalGovernors Association is working to limit federal cuts to Medicare andMedicaid,9 expert testimony be fore Congress. indicates that the financialburden for these programs combined with debt service payments willunduly constrain the federal budg et over th e next 10 to 20 years. 1

As a result of these growing budgetary constraints, funding for theseprograms will likely shift from the federal government to state and localgovernments, stretching already thin budgets.

ChallengesLocal governments will confront generational and fiscal challenges

as the global and national populations age. These challenges will increaseover time and across the nation. For the challenge may begreater than in other parts of the cou ntry because of the projected increase

Does Age Matter? Local Governments in the Post Baby Boom raof elderly residents, which is expected to be nearly double the projectednational average of elderly for 2030. So, despite improved health andlongevity, labor and funding resources will be diluted as the populationcontinues to mature locally, nationally, and globally. Therefore, to maintain historic levels of domestic productivity, the co mpetition for skilledlabor will be even greater, with an ever-dwindling pool of qualifiedapplicants to draw from in Colorado and across the country.

In the short term, some labor supply and econo mic impacts may besoftened by delayed retirement an d a greater participation in the workforceby women and immigrants or by increased use of aging employees asvolunteers or as part-time or outsourced employees. However, the sizeand projected longevity of those aged 65 and older will result in servicedemands that stretch the country s ability to meet the need, which, inturn, will affect local governmen t in Colorado.

Effects will be felt in the form of slower economic growth; a lowerstandard of living and persistent structural unemployment for the elderly,the unskilled, and minority groups; income redistribution caused by thepurchase of foreign goods and services; further erosion of the industrialbase caused by a limited pool of skilled labor; wage-push inflation for theavailable skilled labor; and reductions in federal funding assistance forlocal governments.l

Local Government ActionIn addition to the challenges described above, most local govern-

ments do not appear to be addressing or adapting to generational differ-ences in work values and service expectations or implementing competi-tive programs equally among the generations for employee retention, jobsatisfaction, and employ ee development. Should the predictions of slowereconomic growth come to pass, local governments will contend withreductions in revenues from sales tax and other funding sources, includingreductions in assistance from the federal government as the demand forservices increases. Thus, local governments will be required to do morewith much less, and it is critical that local governments partner with theiremployees to ensure adequate service provision and retain or developcritical skills.

Fortunately, a few county governments in Colorado and in otherareas have begun to implement measures to address attrition, labor short-ages, skills deficits, and increases in service demands. Some local govern-ments, for example, are crossing political boundaries to form partnerships
http:///reader/full/governments.l1http:///reader/full/governments.l1http:///reader/full/governments.l1


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36160 TODD TUCKERand aggregate services for the elderly; one example is Adams County,Colorado, which also services portions of Arapahoe County through itsSenior Hub program. Still other governments, such as Ajo, Arizona, withits arts and culture program, are combining compatible services betweenthe elderly and youth. Yet more must be done.

Local governments can also reduce service and contact demands asthey create or expand on self-service systems to include online bill pay-ments or payment assistance, service scheduling-for such elder care assis-tance as meals-on-wheels, and more online resources and information,like applying for government assistanceor unemployment insurance. Theycan even expand on such remote monitoring systems as photo radar, sitesecurity, and computerized systems for acquiring building permits. Inaddition, new partnerships with surrounding jurisdictions, agencies, andnonprofit organizations or even the privatization of some services maybe useful for meeting service demands and cutting aggregate costs.

Perhaps local governments can also borrow concepts from the privatesector for employee retention and morale and create programs such asflextime, job sharing, or hiring retirees back part time or as consultantsin order to retain aging workers. It also will be increasingly important toprovide opportunities for junior workers to participate in decision makingand mentoring and development programs.

Boulder County, Colorado, for example, has developed a year-longemployee leadership program called the Public Service Institute to providetraining in self-efficacy and organizational awareness. Encouraging, reta in-ing, and training existing employees in such a manner mayoffset the of an aging population by providing current employeeswith the skill sets resources, and knowledge necessary to fill the gaps.12

Current literature focuses primarily on programs to retain retiringemployees and to enhance youth development. t is rare to find articlesor studies ofgovernment employers that place equal emphasison providingsenior, junior, and sophomore workers with training, retention, develop-ment, and quality-of-life opportunities. Current literature suggests thatyounger workers have commitment levels, work values, and careerdifferent from their predecessors, possibly caused by divergent generationalvalues. 13

Career goals could have as much to do with opportunity as theyhave with divergent generational values. As older government employeesdelay retirement, younger employees may find limited opportunities foradvancement and critical skills development, .and, as a result, may exhibitwithdrawal behaviors leading to decreased productivity and commitmentas well as the desire to seek fulfillment and opportunity elsewhere. 14

Does Age Matter? Local Governments in the Post Baby Boom EraConsequendy, as the pool of quilified candidates shrinks, leadershipvoids may result whe n vacancies occur. This may result in more outsourc-

ing, the recruitment of employees who need specialized training, and theretention of employees with less experience than may be desired.The wide array of challenges that face the nation over the next 20

years or so may cause local governments in particular to work closelywith younger workers to develop their abilities and learn to becomesuccessors with the requisite values to manage greater diversity, the ethicsto make balanced decisions, and the skills to meet the eminent challengesof tomorrow.

Notes1. Laurence J. Kotlikoff and Scott Burns, he Coming Generational Storm: atYou Need to Know About America s Economic Future (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press,2004), 1-72.2. J Westkott (Colorado state demographer), interview on Local Matters, Na-tional Public Radio, Boulder, Colo. , September 2005.3. Richard L Clatk, Coun ties Face the Senior Boom: A Survey of he Effect ofan Aging Population and an Aging County Workforce on County Services, preparedfor the National Association of Counties (Athens: University of Georgia, Carl VinsonInstitute of Government, February 2004), www.naco.org/contentmanagement /ContentDisplay.Cin?ContentID=13923.4. Stanley Kurtz, Demographics and the Culture War: The Implications ofPopu-lation Decline, Policy Review (Hoover Institution), no. 129 (February-March 2005),www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/34311S6.html.5. Cit y Policy Associates, Urban Worker Survey (Washington, D.C., NationalAssociation of Counties, 2001), www.naco.orgiContentiContentGroups/Publicarionsl/Surveysl/Urban/UrbanWorkerSurvey.pd 6. Donald M. Atwater and ABha Jones, Preparing for a Future Labor Shortage:How to Stay Ahead of the Curve, Graziadio Business Repart (pepperdine University)7, no. 2 (2004), http://gbr.pepperdine.edu/042/laborshortage.html .7. Emplo yment Policy Foundati on, Futu re Labor and Skills Shortage JeopardizeAmerican Prosperity (Washington, D.C.: Empl oyment Policy Foundation, 2001),http://www.eporglresearch/newsletters/2oo1/ef20011025.pdf Oune 12, 2005).8. Ralph C Bryant and Warwick J McKibbin, Issues in Modeling the GlobalDimensions ofDemographic Change, Brookings Discussion Papers in InternationalEconomics, no. 141 (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, December1998), www.brook.edulviews/papers/bryantl141.pd 9. Kathleen Hunter, Bush Budget Short on State Aid, February6, 2006, www.stateline.orgilive/printable/story?contentId=86488.10. David M. Walker, 21st Century: Addressing Long-Term Fiscal ChallengesMust Include a Re-Examination of MandatOry Spending; Testimony before theBudget Committee, House of Representatives, Report no. GAO-06-45 6T (Wash-ington, D.C.: U.S. Government Accountability Office, February 15, 2006), www.gao.gov/new.items/d06456t.pdf; and David M. Walker, Medicare: Program Re -
http:///reader/full/elsewhere.14http:///reader/full/elsewhere.14http://www.naco.org/contentmanagementhttp://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/34311S6.htmlhttp://www.naco.orgicontenticontentgroups/Publicahttp:///reader/full/rionsl/Surveysl/Urban/UrbanWorkerSurvey.pdhttp://gbr.pepperdine.edu/042/laborshortage.htmlhttp://www.brook.edulviews/papers/bryantl141.pdhttp://www.stateline.orgilive/printable/story?contentId=86488http:///reader/full/elsewhere.14http://www.naco.org/contentmanagementhttp://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/34311S6.htmlhttp://www.naco.orgicontenticontentgroups/Publicahttp:///reader/full/rionsl/Surveysl/Urban/UrbanWorkerSurvey.pdhttp://gbr.pepperdine.edu/042/laborshortage.htmlhttp://www.brook.edulviews/papers/bryantl141.pdhttp://www.stateline.orgilive/printable/story?contentId=86488


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362 TODD TUCKERfonn and Modernization AIe Neede d but Entail Considerable Challenges; Testimonybefore the Special Committee on Aging, U.S. Senate," R epor t No. GAO IT HEHSIAIMD OO 77 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. General Accounting Office, February 8,2000), www.gao.gov/archivel2000/h100077t.pdf.11. Walker, "21st Century: Addressing Long-Te rm Fiscal Challenges Must Includea Re-Examination of Mandatory Spending."12. NACo recently described additional efforts in a special supplement on succes-sion planning; see Hot Topics, Succession Planning," special supplement to ountyNews (NACo), December 11,1006, www.naco.orgiTemplate.cfin?Section=Labor_and Employment&template=/ContentManagement/Content Display.cfin&Contentl0=21985.13. Lynne C. Lancaster and David Stillman, VVhen Generations Collide: VVho TheyAre VVhy They Clash How to Solve the Generational Puzzle at Work (New York:HarperCollins, 2002).14. Lakshmi Ranlarajan and Sigal G. Barsade, "What Makes the Job Tough? TheInfluence ofOrganizationaI Respect on Burn out n the Human Services," November2006,

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ST TE ND LOC LCOURT SYSTEMS

continuing controversy relative to state and local courtsystems is the question of whether judges should be

elected or appointed, and appointed, by whom. One of the best examplesof diversity across the states is the variation n the manner in whic h judgesare selected. In about half the states, judges obtain their office eitherpartisan or nonpartisan election. In the other half, judges are appointedby the legislature, the governor , or via the merit system, wherebyajudicialnominating commission presents a slate of candidates (usually three) tothe governor, who must choose one candidate from the list.To attempt to keep electoral politics out of the selection process asmuch as possible, reformers n most states would prefer the merit plan.They question the utility ofjudicial elections by arguing that, quite simply,citizens often do not know who the better-qualified candidates are in ajudicial election. Indeed, research has shown that judicial elections tendto have low salience among voters. One consequence of theignorance of judicial candidates and elections was illustrated quite poi-gnantly in 1990 in the state of Washington when State Supreme CourtChiefJustice Keith Callow was defeated by the upstart, and inexperienced
http://www.gao.gov/archivel2000/h100077t.pdfhttp://www.naco.orgitemplate.cfin/?Section=Laborhttp://www.gao.gov/archivel2000/h100077t.pdfhttp://www.naco.orgitemplate.cfin/?Section=Labor

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Post-Baby Boom Era and Local Governments