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Potential Earthquake Risk Reduction Opportunities for GEM Caribbean Programme
Lloyd L. Lynch
Instrumentation Eng.
Seismic Research Centre
The University of the West Indies
THREE-DAY REGIONAL WORKSHOP TO LAUNCH
GEM CARIBBEAN REGIONAL PROGRAMME
KAPOK HOTEL, PORT OF SPAIN, TRINIDAD
2ND TO 4TH MAY 2011
The Global Earthquake Model - Caribbean Perspectives
GEM is NOT intended to be a vehicle to promote EPA in the Caribbean a vehicle to carry out the work of the large
insurance/reinsurance companies
Opportunities for GEM GEM can extend the achievements of previous projects GEM can piggyback on ongoing programs and Projects
GEM as a Opportunity To establish regional Earthquake Risk Reduction (ERR)
fraternity To unite ERR professionals across borders and disciplines To provide much needed tools to realize Disaster Risk
Management for the earthquake phenomena.
Long ago Earthquakes were perceived as acts of God that humans could do nothing about
Earthquake Safety
With improved understanding of the natural processes that trigger hazardous events a more technocratic approach emerged which saw public policy application of geophysical and engineering knowledge as the most appropriate way to deal with disasters.
Building & Construction
Public
Science & Engineering
Next to emerge was the approach which placed emphasis on preparedness measures , such as stockpiling of relief goods, preparedness plans, and a growing role for emergency management organizations.
In recent years it was realized that disasters are closely linked to unresolved development problems and requires input from several sectors to solve.
Strong Link Between Development and Disasters
The advantage of economic growth is not that wealth increases happiness, but that it increases the range of human choice.
- Lewis, Arthur (1955) Theory of Economic Growth
Disasters are closely linked to the development
choices that we make.- Clinton, Bill (2006) Early Warning Conference, Bonn Germany
RISK MANAGEMENT
RISK REDUCTION ACTIVITIES
PREPAREDNESS
* MONITORING
* FORECASTING
* PEO & DRILLS
* CONTINGENCY
PLANNING
* EVACUATION
PLANNING
* NETWORK OF
RESPONDERS
* EWS
RISK IDENTIFICATION
* HAZARD
ASSESSMENT
* VULNREABILITY
ASSESSMENT
MITIGATION
* VULNERABILITY
REDUCTION
* BUILDING
CODE
* REGULATION
* LAND USE
PLANNING
* POLICIES
RISK COPING ACTIVITIES
* REMITTANCES
* FINANCIAL
MARKET
* SAVINGS
* AID/GRANTS
* INSURANCE
Caribbean Earthquake Statistics
INTENSITY DISTRIBUTION 1530 - 1900
Region Intensity
X IX VIII VII VI
Cuba - 2 10 5 4
Jamaica 1 - 1 1 11
Haiti 2 2 2 7 2
Dom. Rep - 3 3 - 4
Puerto Rico - - 2 4 2
Virgin Is. - - 2 - 2
Lesser Ant.,
North
1 - 3 3 2
Lesser Ant.,
Central
- 2 1 2 3
Lesser Ant.,
South
- - - 4 5
Barbados - - - - 4
Trinidad 2 1 2 2 4
Mag.
(Mw)
Carib.
Only
Carib &
Atlantic
≥6.0 1/yr 2/yr
≥ 6.5 1/3 yrs 1/yr
≥7.0 1/5
yrs ?
1/3
Yrs ?
≥ 7.5 1/8
yrs ??
1/6
Yrs ??
≥8.0 1/50
yrs ???
1/15
Yrs ???
*Taken from C. McCreery, ICG-C, 2006
Expected Frequency of Earthquakes (last 100 yrs)
Eastern Caribbean Earthquake Statistics
Mag.
(Mw)
Freq.
(Year)
Since (# of
Evts.)
≥5.3 4 1950 (250)
≥ 5.8 1 - 2 1950 (77)
≥6.3 1/2 1910 (58)
≥ 6.8 1/8 1810 (25)
≥7.3 1/15 1810 (13)
≥7.8 1/80 1690 (4)
≥8.0 1/270 ? 1530 (2)
Expected Frequency based on 2009 study of boxed area
(12-14 N)
Caribbean Fatalities from Earthquakes and Tsunamis (1500 – 1999)
1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
1
10
100
1000
10000
No
. K
ille
d
0
10
20
30
40
Po
p.(
Mil)
Earthquake Fatalities (1600-1999)
Total Deaths – ~16,500
TRINIDAD and TOBAGO Damaging Earthquakes
7.8 (IX) 1766
6.6 (VIII) 1825
7 (VII) 1888
7.3 (VIII) 1918
6.3 (VIII) 1954
6.7 (VIII)1997
7.4 (VI)2007
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
10
100
1000
10000
1715 1765 1815 1865 1915 1965 2015
Po
pu
lati
on
in
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Felt at/above MMI VIChronology, Population Size and Intensity
Seismic
Energy
Dynamics of Earthquake Risk in the Caribbean – E.g. Trinidad and Tobago: 1750-2010
Earthquake Hazard: M7.5-8.0 (MMI:VIII-X), <250 Km Range, Ret. Period 200-250 yrs. M6.0-7.5 (MMI:VII- IX), < 50 Km Range, Ret. Period 50-200 yrs*.Exposure: People, property or assets that are within range of the hazard.Vulnerability: Conditions that leads to greater susceptibility to the hazard.
A
C
B
D
Milestones in the DRR in the Caribbean Caribbean Dev. Bank funded the development of CUBiC (1980 – 1985) CDB Funded CROSQ to develop Regional Building Standard IDRC/PAIGH (1988- 1993) Seismic Hazard Project GSHARP IDNDR (1990-1999) -> OAS/PAHO – Safe Schools &Hospitals CCEO/CROSQ requested support to revise and update CUBiC (1999/2004) CDERA/CDEMA Projects Caribbean Hazard Assessment Project (CHAMP) Risk Benchmarking Tool Regional DRM Strategy for the Tourism Sector in the Caribbean
Promotion of CDM (Post IDNDR), “Adoption” of Hyogo Framework of Act. F.W.I. Led Natural Risk Reduction Strategy SEISCARE Conference Establishment of Key institutions e.g. CCRIF, DRRC, CCCCC DRR support International Funding Institutions (CDB, IDB, World Bank) Projects/Programs that have precipitated from misfortunes of others Papua New Guinea Tsunami Puerto Rico Tsunami Program Regional Hurricanes Enhancement in capacity of DMO Indian Ocean Tsunami (2004) CTWS Initiated in 2005 Haitian Earthquake -> COCONet (2011 - ....)
Partnerships: UWI/CCEO/EUCENTRE, UWI/NGI, UWI/ISTRUCTE
Key product of the PAIGH Project PSHA Map
An invaluable output from the IDRC/PAIGH project was a list of recommendations to improve earthquake hazard programmes in the project region. These comprise a list of actions that were deemed necessary :
• to improve and extend data collection,
• maintain and improve the catalogue and software used to produce the maps,
• conduct investigations to help determine the socio-economic impact of earthquakes and
• to promote the use of the seismic hazard products.
Key outcome of the IDRC/PAIGH Project -Recommendations
The recommendations also pointed out specific research that needed to be carried out to address certain shortcomings of the catalogue.
2009 Revision of East. Caribbean Hazard Maps depicting Spectral Acceleration at 0.2 and 1.0sec for Return Period of 2475 years
< BUILT ENVIRONMENT > Vulnerable Sectors
Health
Housing
Infrastructure
Energy and Mines
Trade and Agriculture
Hospitality
Education and Religion
Utilities and Lifelines
Security Facilities
< PROBLEM CONTEXT > Primary Challenges
Technological Constraints
Environmental Constraints
Fragmentation
Development Pressure
SIDS Related Constraints
Demographic Changes
Uncertainty
Ignorance and Indifference
< SOLUTION DOMAIN > Disciplines Involved
Government/ Policy Makers
Insurers
Architect/ Struct. Eng.
Geotechnical Engineer
Social Scientist
Disaster Managers
Physical Planners
Geo-Scientists
Private Sector and NGOs
CHALLENGES, VULNERABLE SECTORS AND DISCIPLINES INVOLVED
Causes for the unsatisfactory seismic performance of RC frame buildings lie in:
the poor choice of a building site,
the inappropriate choice of building architectural forms that offer poor seismic performance,
the absence of structural design for expected earthquake behaviour,
the lack of special seismic detailing of key structural elements,
inadequately skilled construction labour,
poor quality building materials, and
absence of construction supervision.
Regional Challenges: Scarcity and Limitations of Vulnerability Information
Caribbean Geodynamics Setting
[after, e.g., Jordan, 1975; Adamek et al., 1988; Holcombe et al., 1990; Mascle and Letouzey, 1990; Pindell and Barrett, 1990; Heubeck and Mann, 1991; Mann et al., 1995; Flinch et al., 1999; Weber et al., 2001]. Bathymetry from Smith and Sandwell [1997]. Subduction rates from DeMets et al. [2000] and Weber et al. [2001].
Closing Statements
We have a lot of work to do ahead Microzonation, land use, planning Code compliance mechanisms Structural Vulnerability Pre-disaster Financing
We cannot continue to do business as usual We need to mobilize all hands on deck We need to put more shoulders to the wheel Governments must commit to taking concrete and
urgent action to reduce future disaster risks We cannot rely on governments to do it alone
Volunteers Partnerships Innovation
Thanks for your attention…
Q & A