Potential Impact of Changes in MN Math Grad Testing for Students in Bloomington Public

Schools

David Heistad, Executive DirectorResearch, Evaluation and Assessment

Bloomington Public SchoolNovember, 2012

Context for the Study

• Bloomington Public Schools has embarked on a comprehensive initiative to prepare students for graduation and college readiness.

• As part of that initiative, the REA Department in Bloomington conducted a series of longitudinal growth analyses in reading and math to establish benchmarks for graduation and college readiness.

Methodology

• ACT scores were captured for all students who took the test in 2011 and matched by name and student id number to the results of the 11th grade Math MCAII used to determine initial graduation status.

• Using an equal percentile method, the MCAII Math scores were linked with ACT Math scores.

• Using MN Office of Higher Ed data on the typical ACT scores of admitted students, classification accuracy analysis was conducted using MCAII Math scores as the predictor.

Distribution of 2011 Bloomington ACT Scores

On track to graduateBased on Math Grad & College Eligible

College Eligible but not On track to graduate based on MCA >= 1150

2011 Bloomington ACT Math Results

42%

10%

26%

14%

8%

Number of 11th Grade Students = 751

Didn't take ACTACT 14-17 4-year college (18-24)U of M (25-28)Carleton (29-36)

Results

• Passing the MCAII Math Test in 11th grade with a score of 1150 or higher is equivalent to an ACT math score of 22

• According to MN Office of Higher Ed, 25% of students accepted to MN 4-year colleges had an ACT math score of 18 or lower (e.g., Bemidji, St. Cloud, Moorhead)

• Using ACT math score of 18 as “4-year college eligible”, it was determined that 26% of Bloomington Public Schools 11th graders who were “4-year college eligible” did not pass the MCAII Math Test in Grade 11. This would impact 104 families of students who took the ACT test (i.e., if the Grad Testing Law reverted to high stake Math testing with a cut score equivalent to the MCAII Math = 1150).

Results Continued

• Of those students who re-took the MCAII Math tests in 12th grade, 25% passed the MCAII Math test with 3 re-testing tries.

• This would still leave about 75 families where the 12th grade student had an ACT high enough to be eligible for acceptance in a four year college but would be denied a diploma based on the MCAII Math test.

• Details follow:

Equal Percentile Linking

• The correlation between MCAII Math and the ACT Math test scores is high: .856

Bloomington Students who took MCAII Math and ACT Math in 11th Grade

Mean =23 Mean = 1153

Equal Percentile Linking

1150 = 22 ACT Math

Classification Accuracy in Predicting “4yr College Readiness”

26% of College Eligible Students Failed 11th Grade MCA Math

Selected MN Colleges where 25% of Accepted Students have ACT Math Scores of 18 or lower

• Saint Mary’s U of M• St. Cloud State University• Minnesota State University Moorhead• Bemidji State University• University of MN Crookston

Rationale’ for 25th Percentile of ACT as “college eligible”

• If the independent probability of getting into one of these schools with an ACT of 18 = .25, then the probability of getting accepted into one of these schools is 1-(.75)5 =

approximately ¾.

2011 Bloomington Grad Retests

On-course to graduate and 4-year college eligibility based on current Grad Rule

• The following slide shows the NWEA (MAP or CALT) Spring scale scores for reading that predict “on-course” for MN High School Graduation and MN 4-year college eligibility based on equal percentile linkages for students continuously enrolled in Bloomington from grade 2 (2006-07) to grade 7 (2011-12).

• These scores were cross-validated on 2 independent cohorts of continuously enrolled students.

Grades 2-7 On Course to Graduate and 4-year College based on CALT Reading linked to

ACT Composite Score

Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7

On-Course to Graduate 174 185 191 196 200 203

On Course 4yr College 190 200 208 214 218 220

On-course U of M 206 214 221 227 232 235

MCA II Proficiency 184 194 203 209 214 219

On-course Carleton 216 224 231 238 245 246

160180200220240260

NW

EA R

eadi

ng R

IT S

core

ACT = 25

ACT = 19

ACT = 29

On-course to graduate and 4-year college eligibility based on Grad Rule reverting to Grade 11 Math MCA at 1145 or higher

• The following slide shows the NWEA (MAP or CALT) Spring scale scores for math that predict “on-course” for MN High School Graduation and MN 4-year college eligibility based on equal percentile linkages for students continuously enrolled in Bloomington from grade 2 (2006-07) to grade 7 (2011-12).

• These scores were cross-validated on 2 independent cohorts of continuously enrolled students.

• This analysis assumes that students can increase 5 MCA scale score points with remediation and re-testing in 12th grade.

Grades 2-7 On Course to Graduate* and 4-year College based on CALT Math linked to

ACT Composite Score

Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7

*On-Course to Graduate (MCA 11th grade =1145)

197 206 219 226 229 235

On Course 4yr College 193 202 214 220 224 230

On-course U of M 201 210 223 232 235 241

MCA II Proficiency 190 202 213 223 229 234

On-course Carleton 212 223 234 246 254 257

180200220240260280

NWEA

Rea

ding

RIT

Scor

e

ACT = 25

ACT = 19

ACT = 29

*Based on reverting to high stakes 11th Grade Math test with retests