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Power Down: Options and Power Down: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon Actions for a Post-Carbon World World By Richard Heinberg By Richard Heinberg

Power Down: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

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Power Down: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg. The End of Cheap Energy. The Problem. The End of Cheap Energy: Oil. A very cheap and convenient energy source. Cheaper than bottled water. Energy source much of our current infrastructure is based upon. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

Power Down: Options and Actions Power Down: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon Worldfor a Post-Carbon World

By Richard HeinbergBy Richard Heinberg

Page 2: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

The End of Cheap EnergyThe End of Cheap Energy

The ProblemThe Problem

Page 3: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

The End of Cheap Energy:The End of Cheap Energy:OilOil

A very cheap and convenient energy A very cheap and convenient energy source.source.

Cheaper than bottled water.Cheaper than bottled water.Energy source much of our current Energy source much of our current

infrastructure is based upon.infrastructure is based upon.A resource with a finite supply.A resource with a finite supply.

Page 4: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

The End of Cheap Energy:The End of Cheap Energy:DepletionDepletion

The rate of location of new resources is The rate of location of new resources is dropping and is under the rate of dropping and is under the rate of consumption.consumption.Rate of location of new oil peaked in US in Rate of location of new oil peaked in US in

1930’s.1930’s.Rate of location of new oil peaked globally in Rate of location of new oil peaked globally in

the 1970’s.the 1970’s.

Page 5: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

The End of Cheap Energy:The End of Cheap Energy:Dropping ProductionDropping Production

United States production peaked in United States production peaked in 1960’s.1960’s.

Global oil production will hit peak soon, Global oil production will hit peak soon, with estimates ranging from now to 2016.with estimates ranging from now to 2016.

As more oil is extracted from a field, it As more oil is extracted from a field, it becomes harder to extract additional oil.becomes harder to extract additional oil.

Oil and gas production from existing Oil and gas production from existing sources is declining at 4%-6% a year.sources is declining at 4%-6% a year.

Page 6: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg
Page 7: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

The End of Cheap Energy:The End of Cheap Energy:Other sources of oilOther sources of oil

There are more known sources of energy.There are more known sources of energy.Less efficient.Less efficient.More difficult to access and develop.More difficult to access and develop.

Page 8: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

The End of Cheap Energy:The End of Cheap Energy:Global DemandGlobal Demand

Global demand for energy and oil is Global demand for energy and oil is increasing.increasing.China is industrializing rapidly and using China is industrializing rapidly and using

increased amounts of oil.increased amounts of oil.To meet projected 2015 demand, there will To meet projected 2015 demand, there will

be a need to find, develop, and produce a be a need to find, develop, and produce a volume of oil equivalent to 8 out of 10 volume of oil equivalent to 8 out of 10 barrels produced today.barrels produced today.

Page 9: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

The End of Cheap Energy:The End of Cheap Energy:The Energy PlateauThe Energy Plateau

Heinberg’s energy plateau is when oil Heinberg’s energy plateau is when oil production has essentially leveled off. production has essentially leveled off. This is the period between growth and This is the period between growth and decline.decline.

The only advances in energy utilization The only advances in energy utilization that can be made are in efficiency.that can be made are in efficiency.These will not be enough to make a These will not be enough to make a

difference.difference.

Page 10: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

The End of Cheap Energy:The End of Cheap Energy:Natural GasNatural Gas

Less polluting hydrocarbon.Less polluting hydrocarbon.Currently used to heat over 50% of homes Currently used to heat over 50% of homes

in the USin the USProduction peaked in 1971Production peaked in 1971Production fallingProduction falling

Page 11: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

The End of Cheap Energy:The End of Cheap Energy:UsesUses

Natural gas is used in the manufacture of Natural gas is used in the manufacture of many fertilizers.many fertilizers.

Many power plants have been converted Many power plants have been converted to use natural gas.to use natural gas.

Widely used in the extraction of some oils.Widely used in the extraction of some oils.

Page 12: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

The End of Cheap Energy:The End of Cheap Energy:OutlookOutlook

US production already declining.US production already declining.Much more difficult to import than other Much more difficult to import than other

hydrocarbons.hydrocarbons.Argument that even if importation begins Argument that even if importation begins

in a serious manner, would only extend in a serious manner, would only extend modern energy economy by a short time.modern energy economy by a short time.

Page 13: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

The End of Cheap Energy:The End of Cheap Energy:Long term economic effectsLong term economic effects

Our economy is based upon perpetual Our economy is based upon perpetual growth.growth.

For growth, an energy surplus is needed.For growth, an energy surplus is needed.Without oil, there will less energy.Without oil, there will less energy.Efficiency will not make up the shortfall.Efficiency will not make up the shortfall.Our economy will by necessity shrink.Our economy will by necessity shrink.

Page 14: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

The End of Cheap Energy:The End of Cheap Energy:Additional points to considerAdditional points to consider

National infrastructure based upon limited National infrastructure based upon limited resource.resource.

Economy based upon a limited source.Economy based upon a limited source.

Page 15: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

The End of Cheap Energy:The End of Cheap Energy:Alternative energyAlternative energy

Will not be able to make up the energy Will not be able to make up the energy shortfall.shortfall.

Will provide cushion for expected energy-Will provide cushion for expected energy-related crash.related crash.

Will not be enough to offset oil.Will not be enough to offset oil.A direction we need to start moving in.A direction we need to start moving in.

Page 16: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

Main PointMain Point

““Fossil fuels are the equivalent of a huge Fossil fuels are the equivalent of a huge inheritance- one that we have spent inheritance- one that we have spent quickly and none to wisely.” (Heinberg 20)quickly and none to wisely.” (Heinberg 20)

Current methods of life unsustainable.Current methods of life unsustainable.Too much resource use.Too much resource use.Too many people.Too many people.

Page 17: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

Classroom InteractionClassroom Interaction

Describe positive methods of reducing per Describe positive methods of reducing per capita energy consumption.capita energy consumption.

Describe negative methods of reducing Describe negative methods of reducing per capita energy consumption.per capita energy consumption.

Page 18: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

Heinberg’s Four Possible Heinberg’s Four Possible ScenariosScenarios

Last One StandingLast One StandingWaiting for a Magic ElixirWaiting for a Magic ElixirPowerdownPowerdownBuilding LifeboatsBuilding Lifeboats

Page 19: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

Last One Standing: The Way of Last One Standing: The Way of War and CompetitionWar and Competition

Increased competition Increased competition for the remaining for the remaining resources (especially resources (especially oil and natural gas).oil and natural gas). Could possibly lead to Could possibly lead to

the general destruction the general destruction of human civilization of human civilization and most of the and most of the ecological life support ecological life support systems of the planet.systems of the planet.

Page 20: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

Last One StandingLast One Standing

Resource scarcity often leads to increased Resource scarcity often leads to increased competition:competition:True for both animals and humans.True for both animals and humans.The scale of the violence of war increases in The scale of the violence of war increases in

tandem with the size of the societies involved tandem with the size of the societies involved and the levels of their technology.and the levels of their technology.

Human prehistory was dominated by wars Human prehistory was dominated by wars over resources.over resources.

Page 21: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

Last One StandingLast One Standing

Examples of historic resource-related Examples of historic resource-related wars:wars:King Philip’s War (1675-1676)King Philip’s War (1675-1676)Both of the World Wars (1914-1918; 1939-Both of the World Wars (1914-1918; 1939-

1945)1945)The Gulf War (1990 – 1991)The Gulf War (1990 – 1991)The Iraq War (2003 – present)The Iraq War (2003 – present)

Page 22: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

Last One StandingLast One Standing The Free Market cannot prevent resource wars:The Free Market cannot prevent resource wars:

The argument goes that war cannot rationally be used to control The argument goes that war cannot rationally be used to control resources in a world where everything is for sale.resources in a world where everything is for sale.

The global market has not prevented resource wars in the past.The global market has not prevented resource wars in the past. Buyers and sellers enter the marketplace with unequal levels of Buyers and sellers enter the marketplace with unequal levels of

power.power. Today’s market system works to maintain and deepen Today’s market system works to maintain and deepen

inequalities of wealth.inequalities of wealth. Since World War II, wealthy industrial nations learned to Since World War II, wealthy industrial nations learned to

dominate global trade through subtle methods.dominate global trade through subtle methods.

Page 23: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

Last One StandingLast One Standing

The Case of IraqThe Case of Iraq Heinberg believes it is unlikely that the American and Heinberg believes it is unlikely that the American and

British motives were to simply commandeer Iraq oil British motives were to simply commandeer Iraq oil outright.outright.

In order to maintain its global dominance, the U.S. In order to maintain its global dominance, the U.S. needs to be able to ensure stable oil imports at stable needs to be able to ensure stable oil imports at stable prices.prices.

Heinberg also believes that another goal of the Iraq Heinberg also believes that another goal of the Iraq War is to maintain dollar hegemony, considering that War is to maintain dollar hegemony, considering that OPEC is contemplating switching to Euros.OPEC is contemplating switching to Euros.

Thus far the outcome of the war does not appear Thus far the outcome of the war does not appear encouraging for these objectives.encouraging for these objectives.

Page 24: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

Last One StandingLast One Standing

Just When We Need Brilliant Leadership…Just When We Need Brilliant Leadership…Heinberg utilizes fifteen pages to bash on Heinberg utilizes fifteen pages to bash on

Bush. Bush. ““The current administration goes far beyond The current administration goes far beyond

the levels of corruption and incompetence that the levels of corruption and incompetence that Americans have come to expect from their Americans have come to expect from their leaders in recent decades.” (page 67)leaders in recent decades.” (page 67)

His main points: Neo-conservatism is His main points: Neo-conservatism is dangerous and Americans have been dangerous and Americans have been “dumbed down” by television.“dumbed down” by television.

Page 25: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

Last One StandingLast One Standing

Types of Potential Resource WarsTypes of Potential Resource WarsThose between powerful consumer nations Those between powerful consumer nations

and weaker, resource-rich nations.and weaker, resource-rich nations.Civil wars.Civil wars.Those between consuming nations.Those between consuming nations.Asymmetrical war, or “terrorism.”Asymmetrical war, or “terrorism.”

Page 26: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

Last One StandingLast One Standing

The Path of Least ResistanceThe Path of Least ResistanceResource wars are likely to be the default Resource wars are likely to be the default

scenario if nothing is done to prevent them.scenario if nothing is done to prevent them.Conflict is the easiest political alternative.Conflict is the easiest political alternative.

Nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons Nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons developments make it all the more scary.developments make it all the more scary.

Page 27: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

Waiting for the Magic Elixir: False Waiting for the Magic Elixir: False Hopes, Wishful Thinking, and Hopes, Wishful Thinking, and

DenialDenial Heinberg offers critique Heinberg offers critique

on the commonly on the commonly proposed alternative proposed alternative sources of energy.sources of energy.

He insists that the real He insists that the real problem is not finding a problem is not finding a new source of energy. new source of energy. It is the fact that there It is the fact that there are too many people are too many people using too many using too many resourcesresources

Page 28: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

Waiting for the Magic ElixirWaiting for the Magic Elixir

Unconventional Hydrocarbon SourcesUnconventional Hydrocarbon Sources Include tar sands and methane hydratesInclude tar sands and methane hydratesTar sand is a mud-like mixture of sand and Tar sand is a mud-like mixture of sand and

clay surrounded by a dense hydrocarbon clay surrounded by a dense hydrocarbon called bitumen.called bitumen.

Methane hydrates are formed when marine Methane hydrates are formed when marine organisms decompose and release methane. organisms decompose and release methane. This methane becomes trapped on the ocean This methane becomes trapped on the ocean floor in ice crystals.floor in ice crystals.

Page 29: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

Waiting for the Magic ElixirWaiting for the Magic Elixir

Tar SandsTar Sands Quantity of tar sands in the ground is enormous, but Quantity of tar sands in the ground is enormous, but

the rate of extraction is limited by the fact that the the rate of extraction is limited by the fact that the production process is energetically and financially production process is energetically and financially expensive, as well as environmentally disastrous.expensive, as well as environmentally disastrous.

Natural gas and fresh water are required to extract Natural gas and fresh water are required to extract the bitumen. The price of natural gas is increasing, the bitumen. The price of natural gas is increasing, as our supplies dwindle.as our supplies dwindle.

Tar sands project is “doomed to become increasingly Tar sands project is “doomed to become increasingly expensive.”expensive.”

Page 30: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

Waiting for the Magic ElixirWaiting for the Magic Elixir Methane HydratesMethane Hydrates

Extremely plentiful. Could power the world for centuries.Extremely plentiful. Could power the world for centuries. The harvesting however, constitutes “a technical problem The harvesting however, constitutes “a technical problem

of immense proportions.”of immense proportions.” It’s difficult to keep the methane from escaping into the It’s difficult to keep the methane from escaping into the

atmosphere. (Not to mention it’s a greenhouse gas).atmosphere. (Not to mention it’s a greenhouse gas). Seabed methane hydrates already represent a serious Seabed methane hydrates already represent a serious

environmental threat in the context of global warming environmental threat in the context of global warming trends.trends.

Extracting gas hydrates could disrupt seafloor stability Extracting gas hydrates could disrupt seafloor stability leading to massive tsunamis.leading to massive tsunamis.

Extracting land-based methane hydrates will likely be just Extracting land-based methane hydrates will likely be just as difficult and dangerous.as difficult and dangerous.

Page 31: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

Waiting for the Magic ElixirWaiting for the Magic Elixir

High on HydrogenHigh on Hydrogen Heinberg feels that the idea of a “hydrogen economy” Heinberg feels that the idea of a “hydrogen economy”

is hype rather than reality.is hype rather than reality. Arguments against hydrogen:Arguments against hydrogen:

The physical and chemical properties make it unstable as an The physical and chemical properties make it unstable as an energy carrier.energy carrier.

““Technically simple (but politically dicey) improvements to Technically simple (but politically dicey) improvements to current cars and current environmental rules would be more current cars and current environmental rules would be more than 100 times cheaper than a transition to hydrogen when it than 100 times cheaper than a transition to hydrogen when it comes to reducing air pollution.” (page 126)comes to reducing air pollution.” (page 126)

Hydrogen is not a source of energy, just a way of storing it.Hydrogen is not a source of energy, just a way of storing it.

Page 32: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

Waiting for the Magic ElixirWaiting for the Magic Elixir

High on HydrogenHigh on HydrogenArguments against hydrogen continued:Arguments against hydrogen continued:

Spending money on hydrogen takes away Spending money on hydrogen takes away investment from primary sources such as wind and investment from primary sources such as wind and solar.solar.

Most of the advantages of hydrogen depend on the Most of the advantages of hydrogen depend on the vaunted efficiency of fuel cells.vaunted efficiency of fuel cells.

The coal and nuclear industries look favorably on The coal and nuclear industries look favorably on hydrogen because the demand for electricity to hydrogen because the demand for electricity to produce it will inevitably increase.produce it will inevitably increase.

We need a solution now, not decades from now.We need a solution now, not decades from now.

Page 33: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

Waiting for the Magic ElixirWaiting for the Magic Elixir

High on HydrogenHigh on HydrogenThere may be important niche applications for There may be important niche applications for

hydrogen.hydrogen.Some positive developments have been Some positive developments have been

made:made:More efficient ways to make hydrogen from fossil More efficient ways to make hydrogen from fossil

fuels.fuels.A method to harness the sun’s energy and use it to A method to harness the sun’s energy and use it to

crack water molecules, thereby releasing hydrogencrack water molecules, thereby releasing hydrogen

Page 34: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

Waiting for the Magic ElixirWaiting for the Magic Elixir

BMW’s Hydrogen 7 can use gasoline or liquid hydrogen

Page 35: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

Waiting for the Magic ElixirWaiting for the Magic Elixir

Why Even the Perfect Energy Source Will Not Why Even the Perfect Energy Source Will Not Sustain Growth IndefinitelySustain Growth Indefinitely No single current candidate of energy replacement No single current candidate of energy replacement

alternatives could provide the quantity or quality of alternatives could provide the quantity or quality of energy necessary for economic growth.energy necessary for economic growth.

Heinberg discusses a few other alternative energy Heinberg discusses a few other alternative energy sources:sources:

Thermal depolymerizationThermal depolymerization Tidal systemTidal system New types of photovoltaic solar cellsNew types of photovoltaic solar cells ““Free-Energy” machinesFree-Energy” machines

Page 36: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

Waiting for the Magic ElixirWaiting for the Magic Elixir Why Even the Perfect Energy Source Will Not Why Even the Perfect Energy Source Will Not

Sustain Growth IndefinitelySustain Growth Indefinitely Heinberg suggests that we organize an educated, Heinberg suggests that we organize an educated,

unbiased commission whose “job it is to evaluate all unbiased commission whose “job it is to evaluate all available energy alternatives across a range of available energy alternatives across a range of transparent criteria.” (page 131).transparent criteria.” (page 131).

Heinberg believes that based on the alternative Heinberg believes that based on the alternative energy sources, there is probably a transition strategy energy sources, there is probably a transition strategy that could “produce as much energy as industrial that could “produce as much energy as industrial societies actually need in order to supply the basic societies actually need in order to supply the basic necessities of life to their current populations, at least necessities of life to their current populations, at least for the next couple of decades.” (page 131-2)for the next couple of decades.” (page 131-2)

We long ago exceeded the carrying capacity of the We long ago exceeded the carrying capacity of the Earth.Earth.

Page 37: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

Waiting for the Magic ElixirWaiting for the Magic Elixir

Why Even the Perfect Energy Source Will Why Even the Perfect Energy Source Will Not Sustain Growth IndefinitelyNot Sustain Growth IndefinitelyLiebig’s Law: The carrying capacity for any Liebig’s Law: The carrying capacity for any

given species is set by the necessity in least given species is set by the necessity in least supply.supply.

Humans would have a really tough time at Humans would have a really tough time at managing a fully artificial environment.managing a fully artificial environment.

““In the end, self-limitation is the only answer In the end, self-limitation is the only answer that counts, but that is the answer that no one that counts, but that is the answer that no one wants to hear.” (page 137).wants to hear.” (page 137).

Page 38: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

Power DownPower DownThe Path of Cooperation, The Path of Cooperation, Conservation and SharingConservation and Sharing

Page 39: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

Power Down:Power Down:SustainabilitySustainability

Unsustainability of industrial societies is due to Unsustainability of industrial societies is due to socioeconomic structures, institutions and processes.socioeconomic structures, institutions and processes.

Heinberg suggest that we aim for:Heinberg suggest that we aim for: The reduction of resource consumption per industrial output to ¼ The reduction of resource consumption per industrial output to ¼

its 1970 value.its 1970 value. The reduction of pollution per industrial and agricultural output to The reduction of pollution per industrial and agricultural output to

¼ its 1970 value.¼ its 1970 value. Local, self-sustained agricultureLocal, self-sustained agriculture

Reduction in the use of chemical fertilizersReduction in the use of chemical fertilizers

Page 40: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

Power Down:Power Down:Self-LimitationSelf-Limitation

Reduction of resource Reduction of resource consumptionconsumption

Modest material goalsModest material goals Reduction and stabilization of Reduction and stabilization of

human populationhuman population Limitation of industrial and Limitation of industrial and

economic growtheconomic growth Increase the durability and Increase the durability and

repairability of industrial goodsrepairability of industrial goods

Page 41: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

Power Down:Power Down:Examples of Self LimitationExamples of Self Limitation

Kerala, IndiaKerala, India Low economic growth and lowest per-capita incomesLow economic growth and lowest per-capita incomes Lower birth rate, about 1.7 children per womanLower birth rate, about 1.7 children per woman Life expectancy is 10 and 15 years higher for men and womenLife expectancy is 10 and 15 years higher for men and women Lower rates of infant mortalityLower rates of infant mortality Does not depend on economic growth and depends much less Does not depend on economic growth and depends much less

on overseas tradeon overseas trade More sustainable than Europe or the U. S.More sustainable than Europe or the U. S.

Page 42: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

Power Down:Power Down:Examples of Self LimitationExamples of Self Limitation

The 1970’s saw an increase in The 1970’s saw an increase in crude oil prices.crude oil prices. Speed limit decreased to 55 Speed limit decreased to 55

miles per hourmiles per hour More fuel efficient automobiles More fuel efficient automobiles

required required Demand for gasoline Demand for gasoline

decreased for the first time in decreased for the first time in decades decades

Page 43: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

What will happen if we continue What will happen if we continue our selfish ways?our selfish ways?

A Picture of Societal Collapse:A Picture of Societal Collapse: Mayan civilizationMayan civilization

Deforestation required for increased food productionDeforestation required for increased food production Erosion and soil depletion led to decreased crop yieldsErosion and soil depletion led to decreased crop yields Wars fought over decreasing resourcesWars fought over decreasing resources

Efforts to increase the capacity of environment Efforts to increase the capacity of environment decreases the long-term capacitydecreases the long-term capacity

Page 44: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

Collapse of Industrial SocietyCollapse of Industrial Society Scenario for the collapse of industrial societyScenario for the collapse of industrial society

Energy shortages Energy shortages End to global economy as energy for transport declinesEnd to global economy as energy for transport declines Decrease in food production due to energy shortages and soil Decrease in food production due to energy shortages and soil

and water depletion, resulting in global faminesand water depletion, resulting in global famines Clean water shortages resulting in a global increase of water-Clean water shortages resulting in a global increase of water-

related illnessesrelated illnesses Wars over energy, food and water rights between and within Wars over energy, food and water rights between and within

countries countries Rising sea levels and increased storm frequency and severity Rising sea levels and increased storm frequency and severity

create greater chaoscreate greater chaos Society decreases in complexity, reducing back to smaller Society decreases in complexity, reducing back to smaller

regions and states, which may also collapse due to the same regions and states, which may also collapse due to the same problemsproblems

Page 45: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

Building Lifeboats: Survival in a Building Lifeboats: Survival in a Post-Carbon WorldPost-Carbon World

Who will surviveWho will survive Areas without large heating Areas without large heating

and cooling energy and cooling energy requirements requirements

Lower energy usageLower energy usage Self-sufficient, locally-Self-sufficient, locally-

based, lifestylebased, lifestyle Personal survival will be Personal survival will be

dependant on community dependant on community survival survival Cooperation within a Cooperation within a

community to provide for all community to provide for all members and to prevent members and to prevent further resource wars.further resource wars.

Page 46: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

Building Lifeboats: Survival in a Building Lifeboats: Survival in a Post-Carbon WorldPost-Carbon World

Survivors must deal with the disappearance of familiar Survivors must deal with the disappearance of familiar cultural infrastructurecultural infrastructure Technology communication networksTechnology communication networks Information networksInformation networks School systemsSchool systems

Familiar cultural life will degradeFamiliar cultural life will degrade Survivors may become cultureless, having only memories of the Survivors may become cultureless, having only memories of the

past industrial societypast industrial society

Page 47: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

Building Lifeboats: Survival in a Building Lifeboats: Survival in a Post-Carbon WorldPost-Carbon World

Cultural preservation and the “new monks” Cultural preservation and the “new monks” Likened to the monasteries that preserved the Latin Likened to the monasteries that preserved the Latin

language, the classics and Roman technologies language, the classics and Roman technologies following the collapsefollowing the collapse

Would conserve practical information (food production Would conserve practical information (food production and preservation, tool use, construction methods, and preservation, tool use, construction methods, building and operation of renewable energy systems)building and operation of renewable energy systems)

Abstract information (human history)Abstract information (human history) Scientific information (ecosystem function, chemistry, Scientific information (ecosystem function, chemistry,

geology, physics, astronomy and geography)geology, physics, astronomy and geography) Social information (world religions and arts)Social information (world religions and arts)

Page 48: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

Building Lifeboats: Survival in a Building Lifeboats: Survival in a Post-Carbon WorldPost-Carbon World

Cultural Preservation and the “new monks” continued:Cultural Preservation and the “new monks” continued: A great amount of information cannot be preservedA great amount of information cannot be preserved

Electronically stored music and documents will be lostElectronically stored music and documents will be lost Books, journals, and magazines printed on acid-bearing paper will Books, journals, and magazines printed on acid-bearing paper will

disintegrate in a few decadesdisintegrate in a few decades The sheer mass of information today cannot possibly all be The sheer mass of information today cannot possibly all be

preserved.preserved. ““New monks would have to be highly selective.New monks would have to be highly selective.

Page 49: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

ConclusionConclusion We’ve got too many people and we use too many We’ve got too many people and we use too many

resources.resources. “…“…we anticipate perpetual growth in a finite system.” we anticipate perpetual growth in a finite system.”

(132)(132) If nothing is done civilization as we know it will collapse.If nothing is done civilization as we know it will collapse. Steps must be taken to mitigate the collapse.Steps must be taken to mitigate the collapse.

Page 50: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

Strengths of Heinberg’s Strengths of Heinberg’s PresentationPresentation

Wide assemblage of facts.Wide assemblage of facts.Analysis of production charts.Analysis of production charts.Clearly states main points.Clearly states main points.Using “fear tactics” attracts attention to the Using “fear tactics” attracts attention to the

issue.issue.

Page 51: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

Weaknesses of Heinberg’s Weaknesses of Heinberg’s PresentationPresentation

Tends to deny any possibility that any person who Tends to deny any possibility that any person who disagrees with him can be competent and well-meaning.disagrees with him can be competent and well-meaning.

While talked about, the effects of human innovation were While talked about, the effects of human innovation were dismissed.dismissed.

Assumes his future is the only practical future policy.Assumes his future is the only practical future policy. ““Fear tactics” decrease the reasonableness of his Fear tactics” decrease the reasonableness of his

argument.argument. Tended to rant.Tended to rant. Assumes that his interpretation of an impending crash is Assumes that his interpretation of an impending crash is

correct.correct. Provides us with no optimistic outlook.Provides us with no optimistic outlook. Underlying arrogance.Underlying arrogance.

Page 52: Power Down:  Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World By Richard Heinberg

ImagesImages Oil well image courtesy of: Oil well image courtesy of:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Oil_well.jpghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Oil_well.jpg Ford Explorer image courtesy of: Ford Explorer image courtesy of:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:95-98_Ford_Explorer.jpghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:95-98_Ford_Explorer.jpg Peak Oil chart courtesy of: www.exitmundi.nlPeak Oil chart courtesy of: www.exitmundi.nl Amish farming photograph courtesy of: Amish farming photograph courtesy of:

www.dearborncounty.org/images/amish_farming.jpg www.dearborncounty.org/images/amish_farming.jpg U.S. energy consumption chart courtesy of: U.S. energy consumption chart courtesy of:

www.geo.umn.edu/courses/3005/usquad.GIF www.geo.umn.edu/courses/3005/usquad.GIF Hummer photograph courtesy of: Hummer photograph courtesy of:

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