Upload
doandiep
View
220
Download
6
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Power, International & Energy Services J. Richard Bird
Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Corporate Development
This presentation includes certain forward looking information (FLI) to provide Enbridge shareholders and
potential investors with information about Enbridge and management’s assessment of its future plans and
operations, which may not be appropriate for other purposes. FLI is typically identified by words such as
“anticipate”, “expect”, “project”, “estimate”, “forecast”, “plan”, “intend”, “target”, “believe” and similar words
suggesting future outcomes or statements regarding an outlook. Although we believe that our FLI is
reasonable based on the information available today and processes used to prepare it, such statements are
not guarantees of future performance and you are cautioned against placing undue reliance on FLI. By its
nature, FLI involves a variety of assumptions, risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause actual
results, levels of activity and achievements to differ materially from those expressed or implied in our FLI.
Material assumptions include assumptions about: the expected supply and demand for crude oil, natural gas
and natural gas liquids; prices of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids; expected exchange rates;
inflation; interest rates; the availability and price of labour and pipeline construction materials; operational
reliability; anticipated in-service dates and weather.
Our FLI is subject to risks and uncertainties pertaining to operating performance, regulatory parameters,
weather, economic conditions, exchange rates, interest rates and commodity prices, including but not limited
to those discussed more extensively in our filings with Canadian and US securities regulators. The impact of
any one risk, uncertainty or factor on any particular FLI is not determinable with certainty as these are
interdependent and our future course of action depends on management’s assessment of all information
available at the relevant time. Except to the extent required by law, we assume no obligation to publicly
update or revise any FLI, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. All FLI in this
presentation is expressly qualified in its entirety by these cautionary statements.
This presentation will make reference to certain financial measures, such as adjusted net income, which are
not recognized under GAAP. Reconciliations to the most closely related GAAP measures are included in the
earnings release and also in the Management Discussion and Analysis posted to the website.
Legal Notice
2
New Growth Platform Leadership Team
VP Green Power & Transmission
Don Thompson
Senior VP Energy Marketing & International
Leigh Cruess
VP Alternative & Emerging Technology
Chuck Szmurlo
3
Executive VP, CFO, & Corporate Development
J. Richard Bird
VP International
Lino Luison
4
North American Power Market Fundamentals
• Modest long term power demand growth
• Gas-fired and renewable sources dominate 2010 - 2020 supply
growth investment of ~$500 billion
• $100 billion of 2010 - 2020 transmission investment required
Source: Wood Mackenzie 2013
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
Nuclear Hydro Fuel Oil Coal Gas Renewables
TWH
North American Power Demand ~1% Annual Growth
5
Power Generation Focus and Objectives
• Largest Canadian solar power
producer, second largest wind
power producer
• Renewables and gas-fired are in
scope
• Measured pace of development
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
2013 2017
MW
Power Generation Capacity
CDN U.S.
Solar 100 MW 50 MW
Wind 1,302 MW 250 MW
Geothermal - 23 MW
Waste Heat 30 MW -
Focus Areas
6
Power Transmission Focus and Objectives
• Montana-Alberta Tie Line (MATL)
is in-service
• Enbridge/Nextera/Borealis
consortium selected for Ontario
East-West project
• Focus is on MATL expansion,
Ontario and Alberta
• Measured pace of development
Focus Areas
0
500
1000
2013 2017
MW
Transmission Capacity
International Fundamentals
7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
TC
F
BC
F/d
Production (BCF/d) Consumption (BCF/d)
Net exports (BCF/d) Reserves (TCF) RHS
Australia Natural Gas Market Balance
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
bn
bo
e
Mb
oe/d
Production (Mboe/d Consumption (Mboe/d)
Net exports (Mboe/d) Reserves (bn boe) RHS
Peru Hydrocarbon Market Balance
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Qu
ad
rillio
n B
tu
OECD Asia Other Non-OECD Asia India China
Asian Demand Growth
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MM
bb
l
Mb
bl/
d
Production (Mbbl/d) Consumption (Mbbl/d)
Net exports (Mbbl/d) Reserves (MMbbl) RHS
Colombia Crude Oil Market Balance
Source: Business Monitor International Source: Business Monitor International
Source: Business Monitor International Source: EIA
International Focus
8
Colombia
• Measured pace of development
– Colombia
– Oleoducto al Pacífico
– Peru
– Australia
• Primary focus is greenfield
development
• Cenit (Ecopetrol subsidiary)
joined OAP as a funding
partner
Energy Services Fundamentals
Condensate:
Edmonton: $99
Mt. Belvieu: $88
Conway: $85
*Brent price is a landed price on US East Coast/ US Gulf
Coast. Assumed tanker freight cost of US$2.00 per bbl.
Asia
$96
WCS
Bakken
Light
Brent
Maya
$108 $72
LLS
WTI
$112 *
$96
$103
$105
Light Crude
Heavy Crude
$89
Alberta
Light
Pricing as at September 25, 2013
(USD per barrel)
9
WTS: $101 US Sour: $99
Energy Services Business Strategies
10
EdmontonChicago
Cushing
Transportation
Buy: WCS @ Edmonton, AB ($82.00)
Tariff and TVM ($6.00)
Sell: WCS @ Cushing, OK $90.00
Transportation Margin $2.00
Simultaneously Buy & Sell WCS
Spearhead
Enbridge Mainline
Refinery Supply
Simultaneously Buy & Sell Bakken
STORAGE
TANK
Storage
Buy- February
$100.00 / bbl
Sell – March
$101.15 / bbl
Enbridge N.D. Pipeline
Buy: DOM @ Cushing, AB ($100.00)
Storage Fee and TVM ($0.65)
Sell: DOM @ Cushing, OK $101.15
Storage Margin $0.50
Buy: Bakken @ North Dakota ($83.00)
Truck fees, Tariff & TVM ($5.00)
Sell: Bakken @ Clearbrook, MN $90.00
Refinery Supply Margin $2.00
North Dakota
Field Location
Refinery
Minnesota
Condensate Transportation
Rail from Chicago to Edmonton
Transport
by pipe to
Chicago
Chicago
Mont Belvieu, Texas
Conway , Kansas
Edmonton,
Alberta
Buy: CON @ Mt. Belvieu, TX ($91.00)
Sell: CON @ Edmonton, AB $93.00
(net of Tariff, Terminal
Fees, Rail & TVM)
Transportation Margin $2.00
Energy Services Focus and Objectives
11
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2017
$ m
illio
ns
Earnings Contribution • Continued replacement and
expansion of current strategies
– Low risk arbitrage
– Producer and refiner services
• Extension of business model
– Rail niche markets
– Geographic expansion
– Long-term transactions
New Growth Platforms Summary
12
• Well positioned to provide modest near term growth,
base for increased longer term growth and diversification
Near Term Growth Longer Term Potential
Growth / Diversification
Power Generation
Power Transmission
International
Energy Services