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AFTER THE FALL:INVESTING FOR RETIREMENT IN A POST-CRISIS MARKET
Brett Hammond, Chief Investment StrategistOctober 1, 2009Oberlin College
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT1
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
2INTEREST RATES
Source: Bloomberg
3INFLATION
Source: Barclay’s Capital
4JOB LOSSES
-8000
-7000
-6000
-5000
-4000
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1/08 4/08 7/08 10/08 1/09 4/09 7/09
Months
in t
ho
us
an
ds
Cumulative Monthly
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
5SAVINGS RATE
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
6HOUSING
Source: Global Insight
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE7
Source: NCREIF
8COMMODITIES
Source: Global Insight
9EQUITIES
U.S. Equities Market Total ReturnsRussell Indices
12/31/2008YTD
8/31/2009YTD
Russell 3000® Index -37.31% 16.32%
Russell Midcap® Index -41.46% 25.51%
Russell 2000® Index -33.79%% 15.75%
S&P 500 -37.00% 14.97%
Dow Jones Industrial Average -31.93% 10.79%
NASDAQ Composite -42.21% 28.30%
FTSE NAREIT Equity REIT -39.83% 9.97%
Source: Global Insight
01FIXED INCOME
Fixed Income Market Total ReturnsBarclays Capital
12/31/2008YTD
8/31/2009YTD
U.S. Aggregate 5.24% 4.62%
U.S. Government 12.39% -1.94%
U.S. Credit -3.08% 12.90%
Municipal Bond 10-Year 1.52% 7.85%
U.S. TIPS -2.35% 7.22%
Global Emerging Markets -16.16% 26.59%
Source: Barclays Capital
THE VALUE OF THE DOLLAR
Source: Morgan Stanley
PERSONAL INCOME
Group Employment Share Earnings Growth
Not High School Graduate 9.1% -0.1%
High School Graduate 28.8% -3.9%
Some College 27.9% -7.8%
College Graduate 21.8% -5.6%
Masters 8.9% -7.0%
Ph.D. 1.6% -2.2%
MBA, JD, MD 2.0% 5.6%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
1 You have to save to have savings
THE NEW RULES OF INVESTING
2 You need a truly well-diversified portfolio
3 Understand your risk tolerance
4 Slow and steady wins the race
5 The goal is to replace income
6 Rely on a trusted advisor
04/12/23 21
IT’S NOT JUST “AFTER THE FALL” THAT’S IMPORTANT
Investments in variable annuities and mutual funds are subject to market risk and other risk factors.
You should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses carefully before investing. Please call 877 518-9161 or log on to tiaa-cref.org for a current prospectus that contains this and other information. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.
This material has been prepared by and represents the views of Brett Hammond, and does not reflect the views of any TIAA-CREF affiliate. These views may change in response to changing economic and market conditions. The material is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any product or service.
TIAA-CREF Asset Management is a division of Teachers Advisors, Inc., a registered investment advisor and wholly owned subsidiary of Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association (TIAA). TIAA® personnel in its investment management area provide investment advice and portfolio management services through the following entities: Teachers Advisors, Inc., TIAA-CREF Investment Management, LLC, and Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association® (TIAA®). TIAA, TIAA-CREF, Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association, TIAA-CREF Asset Management and FINANCIAL SERVICES FOR THE GREATER GOOD are registered trademarks of Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association.
TIAA-CREF Individual & Institutional Services, LLC and Teachers Personal Investors Services, Inc., members FINRA, distribute securities products.
©2009 Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association-College Retirement Equities Fund, New York, NY 10017
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