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29.06.2018 © 2018 BECKER BÜTTNER HELD CONSULTING AG Philipp Jahnke & Julia Sandén 1
Strommarkttreffen am 29.06.2018Power-to-gas und power-to-fuel: Technological development and systemic effects
Power-to-gas and power-to-fuel - products and specific use cases
Philipp Jahnkea, c & Julia Sandéna, b
a Becker Büttner Held Consulting AG (BBHC)
b Institute for Climate Protection, Energy and Mobility (IKEM)
c Technical University of Berlin
29.06.2018 © 2018 BECKER BÜTTNER HELD CONSULTING AG Philipp Jahnke & Julia Sandén 2
Agenda
1. Overview: Products and Technologies
2. Potential use cases
29.06.2018 © 2018 BECKER BÜTTNER HELD CONSULTING AG Philipp Jahnke & Julia Sandén 3
Product and Technology overview -power-to-gas
Hydrogen
Electrolysis: 2H2O → 2H2 + O2 (through the use of electrical energy)
Low-temperature electrolysis
alkaline electrolysis
Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM)
High-temperature electrolysis
Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cell (SOEC)
Methane
Methanation: CO + 3H2→CH4 + H2O or CO2 + 4H2→CH4 + 2H2O
Catalytic methanation (nickel-based catalyst)
Biological methanation (use of microorganisms)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2020 2030 2040 2050
CAPEX prediction
alkaline PEM SOEC Catalytic & Biological
€/kW
dena (2017), dena (2018), frontier economics (2018), DECHEMA (2017), LBST& BHL (2016)
29.06.2018 © 2018 BECKER BÜTTNER HELD CONSULTING AG Philipp Jahnke & Julia Sandén 4
Product and Technology overview -power-to-liquid
Diesel, gasoline & kerosene
Fischer-Tropsch synthesis:
1. liquid fuel from hydrogen and carbon monoxide
2. refinery process
Methanol synthesis + upgrading & refining:
1. hydrogen and carbon dioxide or carbon monoxide to methanol
2. Upgrading & refining €/kW
0
200
400
600
800
2020 2030 2040 2050
Investment cost prediction
Fischer-Tropsch synthesis Methanol synthesis + u. & r.
dena (2017), dena (2018), frontier economics (2018), DECHEMA (2017), LBST& BHL (2016)
29.06.2018 © 2018 BECKER BÜTTNER HELD CONSULTING AG Philipp Jahnke & Julia Sandén 5
Agenda
1. Overview: Products and Technologies
2. Potential use cases
29.06.2018 © 2018 BECKER BÜTTNER HELD CONSULTING AG Philipp Jahnke & Julia Sandén 6
Potential use cases
Pri
vate
tran
spo
rt
(mo
tori
sed
)
Fle
ets
Hea
vy t
ruck
s
Pu
blic
tra
nsp
ort
Rai
l tra
nsp
ort
Avi
atio
n
Sh
ipp
ing
Ind
ust
rial
pro
cess
h
eat
Hea
tin
g o
f b
uild
ing
s
Ste
el in
du
stry
Ref
iner
y
Ch
emic
al in
du
stry
Hydrogen × × × × × - × × × × × ×
Methane × × × × - - × × × - - -
Gasoline × × - - - - - - - - - -
Diesel × × × × × - × - - - - -
Kerosene - - - - - × - - - - - -
Methanol - - - - - - - - - - - ×
Propylene - - - - - - - - - - - ×
Ethylene - - - - - - - - - - - ×
Ammonia - - - - - - - - - - - ×
Mobility Heating Industry process
PtG/PtF-products
Use
ca
ses
29.06.2018 © 2018 BECKER BÜTTNER HELD CONSULTING AG Philipp Jahnke & Julia Sandén 7
Heavy trucks I
Emission target for the transport sector: 40-42 % GHG reduction by 2030 compared to 1990
Current status: 39.7 Mil.t of CO2 were emitted in 2014 by heavy trucks; road freights are increasing and so are their corresponding emissions
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Hydrogen Synth. Methane Synth. Diesel Strom Natural gas Konv. Diesel
Cost comparison of alternative fuels
CAPEX OPEX Cost of carbon supply Electricity generation cost Additional electricity charges Product cost
ct/tkm
BMUB (2016), UBA (2017)
29.06.2018 © 2018 BECKER BÜTTNER HELD CONSULTING AG Philipp Jahnke & Julia Sandén 8
Heavy trucks II
A wide range of alternatives, all with different infrastructure requirement
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Hydrogen Synth. Methane Synth. Diesel Electricity Electricity Natural gas Konv. Diesel
H2 FCV truck CNG/LNG truck Diesel truck BEV truck Overhead line truck CNG/LNG truck Diesel truck
Comparison of TCO
Vehicle cost Fuel cost Consumption tax
ct/tkm
29.06.2018 © 2018 BECKER BÜTTNER HELD CONSULTING AG Philipp Jahnke & Julia Sandén 9
Aviation
BMUB (2017b), IATA (2012).
Emission targets for the aviation industry (set by the International Aviation Industry):
A cap on net aviation CO2 emissions from 2020 (carbon-neutral growth)
A reduction in net aviation CO2 emissions of 50 % by 2050, relative to 2005 levels
Current status: 2,2 Mio. t CO2-eq. was emitted by the German aviation 2015. On an international level 859 Mio. t CO2-eq. was emitted in 2017
Lack of alternatives if a large CO2 emission reduction should be achieved
Without PtX it will not be possible to reach the emission reduction targets
Need for a fuel with:
High energy density (energy content per volume)
High specific energy (energy content per mass)
Good storage capacity0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Synth. Kerosene Konv. Kerosene
Cost comparison of alternative fuels
CAPEX OPEX
Cost of carbon supply Electricity generation cost
Additional electricity charges Product cost
ct/Pkm
29.06.2018 © 2018 BECKER BÜTTNER HELD CONSULTING AG Philipp Jahnke & Julia Sandén 10
Heating of buildings
Emission target for the building sector: 70 % CO2 reduction by 2030 compared to 1990
Current status: 119 Mio. t CO2-eq. was emitted by the building sector in 2014
75 % of the room hearting was generated by natural gas in 2015 (80 % in old buildings and 51 % in new buildings)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Hydrogen Synth. Methane Gas Mix Natural gas
Cost comparison of alternative energy carriers
CAPEX OPEX Cost of carbon supply Electricity generation cost Additional electricity charges Product cost Consumption tax
ct/kWh
BMUB (2016)
Step by step approach by integrating hydrogen and synth. Methane into the existing gas grid
Gas Mix: 80 vol. % natural gas, 10 vol. % hydrogen and 10 vol. %. Synth Methane.
29.06.2018 © 2018 BECKER BÜTTNER HELD CONSULTING AG Philipp Jahnke & Julia Sandén 11
Refinery I
Emission target for the industry sector: 40-59 % CO2 reduction by 2030 compared to 1990
Current status: 189 Mio. t CO2-eq. was emitted by building sector in 2015
Refineries are responsible for ca. 20 % of these emissions
Hydrogen from natural gas steam reforming is currently used in the refineries
Changing to green hydrogen would not require any changes of the existing production process
By using green hydrogen ca 1,4 Mio.t CO2-eq. emissions could be avoided each year
LBST& BHL (2016)
29.06.2018 © 2018 BECKER BÜTTNER HELD CONSULTING AG Philipp Jahnke & Julia Sandén 12
Refinery II
Large CO2 reduction potential combined with minor cost difference of the end product
Possible entry-market for Electrolyses
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Diesel produced with greenhydrogen
Conventionally produced diesel
Cost comparison of diesel
Production cost
0
5
10
15
20
25
Ggreen Hydrogen Hydrogen from steam reforming
Cost comparison of hydrogen
CAPEX OPEX
Cost of carbon supply Electricity generation cost
€/kg ct/l
29.06.2018 © 2018 BECKER BÜTTNER HELD CONSULTING AG Philipp Jahnke & Julia Sandén 13
Conclusion I
Mobility
A wide range of alternatives (private transport, heavy trucks etc.) as well as a lack of alternatives (aviation etc.)
Different infrastructure requirements and need for a change of technologies
Heating
Distinction between existing and new buildings necessary
Integrating hydrogen and synth. methane into the existing gas grid vs. district heating
Chemical industry
Limited availability of alternatives (biomethane)
Further use of existing technologies and infrastructure
29.06.2018 © 2018 BECKER BÜTTNER HELD CONSULTING AG Philipp Jahnke & Julia Sandén 14
Conclusion II
What's needed in order to bring PtX products to the market?
Investment cost reduction and efficiency increase for the PtX-technologies
Potential tax reductions
Infrastructure development (e.g. for hydrogen)
Expansion of renewable energies
Increase in price for CO2 emissions
29.06.2018 © 2018 BECKER BÜTTNER HELD CONSULTING AG Philipp Jahnke & Julia Sandén 15
Thank youfor your attention!
Philipp Jahnke, BBHC BerlinTel +49 (0)30 611 28 40-927
Julia Sandén, BBHC BerlinTel +49 (0)30 611 28 [email protected]
29.06.2018 © 2018 BECKER BÜTTNER HELD CONSULTING AG Philipp Jahnke & Julia Sandén 16
References
Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz, Bau und Reaktorsicherheit (BMUB) (2016): Klimaschutzplan 2050. https://www.bmu.de/fileadmin/Daten_BMU/Download_PDF/Klimaschutz/ klimaschutzplan_2050_bf.pdf (Letzter Zugriff: 18.06.2018)
Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz, Bau und Reaktorsicherheit (BMUB) (2017): Klimaschutz in Zahlen. https://www.bmu.de/fileadmin/Daten_BMU/Pools/Broschueren/klimaschutz_in_zahlen_2017_ bf.pdf (Letzter Zugriff: 18.06.2018)
Deutsche Energie Agentur (dena) (2017a): Roadmap Power to Gas. https://shop.dena.de/fileadmin/ denashop/ media/Downloads_Dateien/esd/9215_Broschuere_Baustein_einer_Integrierten_ Energiewende_Roadmap_Power_to_Gas.pdf (Letzter Zugriff: 18.06.2018)
Deutsche Energie Agentur (dena) (2018): dena-Leitstudie Integrierte Energiewende. Abrufbar unter: https://shop.dena.de/fileadmin/denashop/media/Downloads_Dateien/esd/9214_dena-Leitstudie-Integrierte-Energiewende_Zwischenfazit.pdf (Letzter Zugriff: 18.06.2018)
Frontier Economics (2018): Die zukünftigen Kosten strombasierter synthetischer Brennstoffe (Agora Verkehrswende & Agora Energiewende, 129/04-S-2018/DE). https://www.agora-energiewende.de/fileadmin/Projekte/2017/SynKost_2050/Agora_SynCost-Studie_WEB.pdf (Letzter Zugriff: 18.06.2018)
International Air Transport Association (IATA) (2012): Policy - Climate Change. http://www.iata.org/ policy/environment/Pages/climate-change.aspx (Letzter Zugriff: 18.06.2018).
29.06.2018 © 2018 BECKER BÜTTNER HELD CONSULTING AG Philipp Jahnke & Julia Sandén 17
References
Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik (LBST) (2017): Sektorenkopplung - Die Rolle von Wasserstoff als Begleiter des Stromsystems, Seminar „Erneuerbare Energien“, Hochschule Karlsruhe Technik und Wirtschaft, 28.06.2017. https://www.hs-karlsruhe.de/fileadmin/hska/EIT/Aktuelles/seminar_erneurbare_energien/Sommer_2017/Folien/170628SektorenkopplungBuenger.pdf (Letzter Zugriff: 18.06.2018)
Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik (LBST) & Bauhaus Luftfahrt (BHL) (2016): Power-to-Liquids - Potentials and perspectivesfor the future supply of renewable aviation fuel (UBA, ISSN: 2363-829X). http://www. lbst.de/news/2016_docs/161005_uba_hintergrund_ptl_barrierrefrei.pdf (Letzter Zugriff: 18.06.2018)
Umweltbundesamt (UBA) (2016a): Integration von Power to Gas/Power to Liquid in den laufenden Transformationsprozess. https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/1/ publikationen/position_power_to_gas-power_to_liquid_web.pdf (Letzter Zugriff: 18.06.2018)
Umweltbundesamt (UBA) (2016b): Klimaschutzbeitrag des Verkehrs bis 2050. https://www. umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/1410/publikationen/texte_56_2016_klimaschutzbeitrag_des_verkehrs_2050_getagged.pdf (Letzter Zugriff: 18.06.2018)
Umweltbundesamt (UBA) (2017): Emissionen des Verkehrs. https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/ daten/verkehr/emissionen-des-verkehrs#textpart-1 (Letzter Zugriff: 18.06.2018)