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Magellan | 6
“China is going to be bigger, stronger and more robust than any market in the world…” – Shultz, Apr 2017
Source: Company disclosures & Census data. Image: www.bizjournals.com. Notes: Consuming Class is defined as the entire population for Australia and the US (24M and 301M). For China it is defined as 600M people, v the 1.1Bn population.
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KFC Australia McDonalds US Starbucks US KFC China Starbucks China
Restaurants/Mill' Consuming Class
• Habitual
• Delicious
• Growing penetration of beverage occasions
• A little addictive
• Social
RP044
Aveo Group• Aveo Group (ASX: AOG) is the only ASX 200 listed company focussed solely
on retirement. The company develops and operates retirement villages and aged care facilities
• Investment opportunity:– Shares have materially de-rated since June 2017 negative Four Corners/Fairfax
Media coverage of retirement charging model – Business model appears undisrupted, sales rates are recovering
• Target price: >$4.1 per share or c. 60% upside– Shares historically traded above tangible-NAV which today is $3.3 per share and
will be >$4.1 per share in two years time– Return on capital is improving therefore book value target price may be
conservative– Similar Lead Lease retirement portfolio sold to Dutch pension fund in October
2017 at a “small premium to carrying value”– The company will re-start buying-back shares in next 6 months following
Brisbane office building sale
• Risks:– Unit sales rates may not recover to 1H17 levels– Lower house prices– Regulatory change– Further negative press
12,43311,222
9,478
5,100
838
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Lend Lease Aveo Stockland RetireAustralia
Ingenia
Retirement Village Operators by Units Managed
WD-40 Company
A brand management company: “buy a commodity – sell a brand”
Source: Bloomberg, VGI Partners
Household brand
Consistent organic growth
High return on capital
High cash flow generation
Strong balance sheet
Asset light business model
Future Generation Investment Forum
Global Construction Services (ASX: GCS)
$-
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
$1.60
$1.80
$2.00
Exchange
Ticker
Current share price
52 week high / low
Market Capitalisation
Net Cash (2018F)
Enterprise Value
$32m
$139m
ASX
GCS.ASX
0.81
$0.48 / $0.90
$171m
Confidential / 14
KT Corporation– Korean Broadband Leader
Korea’s fixed line Telco can become a cash machine
Irrational extrapolation
•
•
•
Multiple ways of winning
•
•
•
Margin of safety
•
•
Correlation cluster
•Source: Factset
EV/Sales vs sector: KT de-rated materially
% Fiber connections of total broadband
Source: OECD December 2016 “Broadband Statistics” report
HRL Holdings (HRL.AX)
FY17 FY18E
HRL Analytica Combined HRL Analytica Combined
Revenue 21.2 8.7 29.9 22.2 11.0 33.2
Gross Profit 10.6 4.4 15.1 11.4 5.6 17.0
% margin 50% 51% 50% 51% 51% 51%
EBITDA 2.7 3.2 5.9 3.2 4.0 7.3
% margin 13% 37% 20% 15% 37% 22%
• Expansion of Analytica operations in Australia
• Blue-sky investment – 26% interest in CAIQTest
• Sound balance sheet
Current Valuation*
No. of Shares 496.3 M
Current Price $0.10
Market Cap 49.6
Enterprise Value 53.5
FY18E EV/EBITDA 7.3*Includes all new scrip issued and earnouts post acquisition
Source: HRL Presentation 17/10/17 – pro-forma earnings forecast, $m AUD
HRL Holdings is a diversified environmental and geotechnical service provider with offices and laboratory facilities across Australia and New Zealand.
Capitol Health (CAJ.AX)
FY17 FY18 Guidance FY19 Centennial Est.
Revenue 165.0 123.5 157.0
EBITDA 22.2 22.5 30.0
% margin 13% 18% 19%
• Diagnostic Imaging market improvement (c. 5% growth)• Acquisition pipeline (35-40m net cash, EV/EBITDA multiple 5.5x)• Management executing on strategy
Current Valuation
No. of Shares 804 M
Current Price $0.305
Market Cap 245
Enterprise Value 206
FY19E EV/EBITDA 8.2
FY19E PE 15.1
Source: CAJ AGM Presentation
Capitol Health is a leading provider of diagnostic imaging services to the Australian healthcare market.
CAJ FY17 CAJ FY18E IDX FY18E Combined FY18E Combined FY19E
Revenue 165.0 115.0 187.0 302.0 317.1
EBITDA Underlying 22.2 22.0 37.0 64.0 67.2
margin 13% 19% 20% 21% 21%
NPAT Underlying 4.8 9.5 16.8 30.1 31.7
MC ($M) 154.6 245.2 274.1 550.5 550.5
EV ($M) 196.1 206.4 323.1 620.5 620.5
PE 32.5 25.9 16.3 18.2 17.3
EV/EBITDA 8.8 9.4 8.7 9.7 9.2
Post-announcement of Integral Diagnostic (IDX.AX) takeover:
Brain Resource Company (BRC)
21
Market and product need – Mental health illness is epidemic. BRC’s IP assets (which include the world’s largest brain function database) directly address the mental health fault-line, which costs >US$200bn annually in the US, and which is ruining the economics of the Australian insurance industry (APRA data).
Failure => restructure – BRC has long, deep and very costly (c$70m R&D) roots in brain science. Enjoyed early success with iSPOT, and adoption of MBS in USA by five insurers and 28 blue-chip corporates. More recently, commercialisation of IP assets has failed – leading to a fundamental restructure of the company.
New, new BRC – all-new management: four execs ex- Amazon, Yodle, Monster, and Private Equity, with deep digital business (SaaS) and marketing credentials. BRC now has a clear and much narrower go-to-market strategy centred on driving adoption/pricing within existing customers in insurance (196 million lives covered) and corporate wellness.
Recapitalised, incentivised –$10m equity raise and simplified capital structure, via conversion of $14m of (senior) CB securities. Management have been hugely incentivised, via an ESOP (primarily “at risk” grants) over c20% of diluted capital.
Execution is key – MBS has a hard science base lacking in competitor offerings, as endorsed by its quality customer base. Now have to reinvest (MBS mobile 2.0/UX/CRM and sales) to drive penetration and yield. Highly scalable SaaS model, capable of supporting a high EV/sales multiple as growth accelerates.
BRC: pro-forma capitalisation
(A$ millions) 30/09/2017 Pro-forma (1)
Cash 0.7 10.2
CB debt 14.0- -
Net cash (debt) 13.3- 10.2
Equity capitalisation - primary 11.7 35.6
Equity capitalisation - diluted 16.9 53.2
Enterprise value - diluted 30.2 43.0 (1)
Pro-forma for $10m capital raise; conversion of CB's