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PowerPoint Presentationfuturegeninvest.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Future... · KFC Australia McDonalds US Starbucks US KFC China ... Future Generation Investment Forum Global

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Magellan | 6

“China is going to be bigger, stronger and more robust than any market in the world…” – Shultz, Apr 2017

Source: Company disclosures & Census data. Image: www.bizjournals.com. Notes: Consuming Class is defined as the entire population for Australia and the US (24M and 301M). For China it is defined as 600M people, v the 1.1Bn population.

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KFC Australia McDonalds US Starbucks US KFC China Starbucks China

Restaurants/Mill' Consuming Class

• Habitual

• Delicious

• Growing penetration of beverage occasions

• A little addictive

• Social

RP044

Aveo Group• Aveo Group (ASX: AOG) is the only ASX 200 listed company focussed solely

on retirement. The company develops and operates retirement villages and aged care facilities

• Investment opportunity:– Shares have materially de-rated since June 2017 negative Four Corners/Fairfax

Media coverage of retirement charging model – Business model appears undisrupted, sales rates are recovering

• Target price: >$4.1 per share or c. 60% upside– Shares historically traded above tangible-NAV which today is $3.3 per share and

will be >$4.1 per share in two years time– Return on capital is improving therefore book value target price may be

conservative– Similar Lead Lease retirement portfolio sold to Dutch pension fund in October

2017 at a “small premium to carrying value”– The company will re-start buying-back shares in next 6 months following

Brisbane office building sale

• Risks:– Unit sales rates may not recover to 1H17 levels– Lower house prices– Regulatory change– Further negative press

12,43311,222

9,478

5,100

838

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Lend Lease Aveo Stockland RetireAustralia

Ingenia

Retirement Village Operators by Units Managed

WD-40 Company

A brand management company: “buy a commodity – sell a brand”

Source: Bloomberg, VGI Partners

Household brand

Consistent organic growth

High return on capital

High cash flow generation

Strong balance sheet

Asset light business model

Future Generation Investment Forum

Global Construction Services (ASX: GCS)

$-

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

$1.40

$1.60

$1.80

$2.00

Exchange

Ticker

Current share price

52 week high / low

Market Capitalisation

Net Cash (2018F)

Enterprise Value

$32m

$139m

ASX

GCS.ASX

0.81

$0.48 / $0.90

$171m

Confidential / 14

KT Corporation– Korean Broadband Leader

Korea’s fixed line Telco can become a cash machine

Irrational extrapolation

Multiple ways of winning

Margin of safety

Correlation cluster

•Source: Factset

EV/Sales vs sector: KT de-rated materially

% Fiber connections of total broadband

Source: OECD December 2016 “Broadband Statistics” report

HRL Holdings (HRL.AX)

FY17 FY18E

HRL Analytica Combined HRL Analytica Combined

Revenue 21.2 8.7 29.9 22.2 11.0 33.2

Gross Profit 10.6 4.4 15.1 11.4 5.6 17.0

% margin 50% 51% 50% 51% 51% 51%

EBITDA 2.7 3.2 5.9 3.2 4.0 7.3

% margin 13% 37% 20% 15% 37% 22%

• Expansion of Analytica operations in Australia

• Blue-sky investment – 26% interest in CAIQTest

• Sound balance sheet

Current Valuation*

No. of Shares 496.3 M

Current Price $0.10

Market Cap 49.6

Enterprise Value 53.5

FY18E EV/EBITDA 7.3*Includes all new scrip issued and earnouts post acquisition

Source: HRL Presentation 17/10/17 – pro-forma earnings forecast, $m AUD

HRL Holdings is a diversified environmental and geotechnical service provider with offices and laboratory facilities across Australia and New Zealand.

Capitol Health (CAJ.AX)

FY17 FY18 Guidance FY19 Centennial Est.

Revenue 165.0 123.5 157.0

EBITDA 22.2 22.5 30.0

% margin 13% 18% 19%

• Diagnostic Imaging market improvement (c. 5% growth)• Acquisition pipeline (35-40m net cash, EV/EBITDA multiple 5.5x)• Management executing on strategy

Current Valuation

No. of Shares 804 M

Current Price $0.305

Market Cap 245

Enterprise Value 206

FY19E EV/EBITDA 8.2

FY19E PE 15.1

Source: CAJ AGM Presentation

Capitol Health is a leading provider of diagnostic imaging services to the Australian healthcare market.

CAJ FY17 CAJ FY18E IDX FY18E Combined FY18E Combined FY19E

Revenue 165.0 115.0 187.0 302.0 317.1

EBITDA Underlying 22.2 22.0 37.0 64.0 67.2

margin 13% 19% 20% 21% 21%

NPAT Underlying 4.8 9.5 16.8 30.1 31.7

MC ($M) 154.6 245.2 274.1 550.5 550.5

EV ($M) 196.1 206.4 323.1 620.5 620.5

PE 32.5 25.9 16.3 18.2 17.3

EV/EBITDA 8.8 9.4 8.7 9.7 9.2

Post-announcement of Integral Diagnostic (IDX.AX) takeover:

Focussed | Vigilant | Agile19

Short squeeze?

Cheap

Fast growing

Innovative

&

Hated?

Brain Resource Company (BRC)

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Market and product need – Mental health illness is epidemic. BRC’s IP assets (which include the world’s largest brain function database) directly address the mental health fault-line, which costs >US$200bn annually in the US, and which is ruining the economics of the Australian insurance industry (APRA data).

Failure => restructure – BRC has long, deep and very costly (c$70m R&D) roots in brain science. Enjoyed early success with iSPOT, and adoption of MBS in USA by five insurers and 28 blue-chip corporates. More recently, commercialisation of IP assets has failed – leading to a fundamental restructure of the company.

New, new BRC – all-new management: four execs ex- Amazon, Yodle, Monster, and Private Equity, with deep digital business (SaaS) and marketing credentials. BRC now has a clear and much narrower go-to-market strategy centred on driving adoption/pricing within existing customers in insurance (196 million lives covered) and corporate wellness.

Recapitalised, incentivised –$10m equity raise and simplified capital structure, via conversion of $14m of (senior) CB securities. Management have been hugely incentivised, via an ESOP (primarily “at risk” grants) over c20% of diluted capital.

Execution is key – MBS has a hard science base lacking in competitor offerings, as endorsed by its quality customer base. Now have to reinvest (MBS mobile 2.0/UX/CRM and sales) to drive penetration and yield. Highly scalable SaaS model, capable of supporting a high EV/sales multiple as growth accelerates.

BRC: pro-forma capitalisation

(A$ millions) 30/09/2017 Pro-forma (1)

Cash 0.7 10.2

CB debt 14.0- -

Net cash (debt) 13.3- 10.2

Equity capitalisation - primary 11.7 35.6

Equity capitalisation - diluted 16.9 53.2

Enterprise value - diluted 30.2 43.0 (1)

Pro-forma for $10m capital raise; conversion of CB's

AFSL 314 302

ASX: ORG