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12/5/2011
1
Transportation TuesdaysSecond in webinar series for transit CEOs & board members on
economic sustainability – December 6, 2011
Election Returns: Sustainable Public Transportation Economics
Alison A. Hewitt
Jason Jordan
Peter Varga
Art Guzzetti
Election Returns:Sustainable Public Transportation Economics
Lessons, strategies, and messages that made the difference
Alison A. HewittChair, APTA Transit Board Members CommitteeChair, Hillsborough Area Regional Transit,Tampa, FL
Election Returns:Sustainable Public Transportation Economics
Lessons, strategies, and messages that made the difference
Art Guzzetti APTA Vice President-Policy, Washington, DC
Election Returns:Sustainable Public Transportation Economics
Lessons, strategies, and messages that made the difference
Jason JordanDirector, Center for Transportation Excellence,Washington, DC
Supporting Transit at the Ballot Box
December 6, 2011
Transportation is on the Ballot Every Year
• Nearly 400 measures with a transit component since 2000• Election years remain more popular for ballot measures
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Transit Finds Continued Success with Voters
• Success rate for last four years has been above the long-term average• Transit ballot measures are more than twice as successful as ballot measures
generally
Ballot Measures by Type2000 - 2011
Winning % by Type of Measure2000-2011
Red vs. BlueTransportation Ballot Measures Cross the Partisan Divide
RED• 42% of measures (13) were in
regions that voted primarily for Republican candidates.
• 69% of measures (9) were approved.
• Slightly fewer measures on ballots in right-leaning regions, but voters support them at a rate on par with the 10-year average.
Blue• 58% of measures (18) were in
regions that voted primarily for Democratic candidates.
• 77% of measures (14) were approved.
• Slightly more likely to go to the ballot with transportation issues; approval rate above average for the day.
31 transportation measures on the November 2 ballot
Challenging Climate, Positive Results
2011 Wins: 22Losses: 6Total: 28Success Rate: 79%States: 5
2010 Wins: 44Losses: 13Total: 57Success Rate: 77%States: 19
2010–2011: Voters approve $1.03 billion in annual funding at the ballot box
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Headlines & Highlights: St. LouisRaleigh / DurhamWashingtonBay Area, CAMichiganCincinnati
St. Louis, MOMultiple attempts at ballot boxApril 2010: voters finally approve half-cent sales tax increase to maintain bus service and expand light railGenerates approximately $75 million annuallyGOTV nearly doubles average special election turnout
St. Louis Supporting Transit North Carolina
Mecklenburg County votes against repealing a half‐cent transit sales tax in November 2007.
Durham County leads the way on a half‐cent sales tax when 60 percent of voters approve in November 2011.
67 percent of voters in Raleigh approve a $40 million transportation bond.
Election Day 2011Washington
Clark County: Voters approved a 0.2 percent sales tax increase to raise an estimated $8‐$9 million annually for C‐TRAN. Cuts of up to 35 percent were possible without passage.
Initiative 1125:This sought to give the Legislature authority to set tolls, limit use of toll revenue to only maintenance of road tolled, and prevent light rail from running on the I‐90 floating bridge.
Seattle: Voters rejected a $60 car‐tab fee that was designed to raise an estimated $204 million annually:• 49% would go to transit• 29% to road maintenance • 22% to bike/ped infrastructure.
Washington11 measures in the past four yearsMore than 72 percent successMostly sales tax increases
One vehicle fee measureOne anti‐tolling measure
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2010 – 2011Election HighlightsCalifornia
Vehicle Fees in Bay AreaFive out of seven counties approved $10 vehicle fee increases to support local transportation projects.• Counties that approved: Alameda, Marin, San
Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Clara.• Contra Costa and Sonoma Counties did not approve.
30/10 Initiative in Los Angeles• Los Angeles County voters approved Measure R—a half‐cent
sales tax for transportation projects—in November 2008.• The original plan was to complete projects over 30 years, but
the 30/10 Initiative is designed to accelerate construction of 12 projects to be complete in 10 years.
California Con’t:Statewide Measures
Voters send conflicting messages on statewide measures in November 2010
• Prop 22 ‐ Prohibits the state from raiding local transportation, safety and other funds
• Prop 25 ‐ Reduces the two‐thirds requirement to a simple majority for the Legislature to approve the budget
• Prop 26 ‐ Requires a two‐thirds supermajority in the Legislature to pass many fees that could previously have been enacted by a simple majority vote.
What does this mean for 2012 and beyond?• Petition drive to lower referendum approval
threshold to 55 percent for certain tax measures• Efforts to alter initiative process
Ohio & Michigan
OhioAnti‐streetcar charter amendments in CincinnatiSales tax measures in Lorain, Stark, Mahoning, and Summit CountiesProperty tax measures in Toledo and Trumbull, Jefferson, and Belmont Counties
MichiganLocal property tax measures appear on ballots almost every yearHighly successful:
88 percent success in 201190 percent success in 2010
Hallmarks of Successful CampaignsEarly Steps…
• Clear & Specific— "What's in it for me?” “What are we ‘buying’?”
• Messengers & Champions—Well‐known, public or private sector figures can be valuable assets.
• Polling and Research—Identify voters’ values and concerns; level of funding they can support.
• Fundraising—Start early!• Know the Local Politics—Manage
timing, reputations, and other issues.• Coordination – Plan for smooth
collaboration with the agency, coalition and campaign.
• Messaging matters.
…Keep Going• Strong coalition—Organize support
from allies, grassroots, and business.
• Respond to critics—Be prepared for criticism and address it directly.
• Stay on message—Don’t let criticisms distract voters.
• Incorporate new tools & tactics—New media, aggressive field ops
• It’s a campaign. Run it like one.
Message Matters• The Value to Me
“Some of us use transit, all of us need it.”
• Local Values• Use of Champions
• Turning the Tables on Taxes
• Reputation Management
• Specific, Targeted
2012 Election OutlookSelected confirmed & likely measures:
• Atlanta: Regional 1% sales tax; $6.1B total with 51.5% for transit • Orange & Wake Counties, NC: Sales tax increase for local and regional service• Alameda County, CA: Extension of Measure B sales tax with possible temporary
increase
• Marin & Sonoma Counties, CA: Effort underway by SMART opponents to get a measure on ballot to repeal tax approved in 2008
• San Francisco, CA: Considering various ballot options to contend with major budget cuts
• Denver, CO: Sales tax increase to complete FasTracks on time.
• Baton Rouge, LA: Financing for local transit system• Idaho statewide: Measure asking voters for local authority to go to the ballot
with transportation finance measures
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Jason [email protected]
Find CFTE On:
Election Returns:Sustainable Public Transportation Economics
Jason JordanDirector, Center for Transportation Excellence,Washington, DC
Election Returns:Sustainable Public Transportation Economics
Peter VargaMember, APTA Board of Directors Chief Executive Officer, Interurban Transit
Partnership (The Rapid), Grand Rapids, MI
Fifty Percent Plus 136
Planning for Local Ballot Initiatives
Ballot Measure History• The Rapid (ITP) officially formed in 2000 after a majority of
voters in the six city service area voted to join a regional taxing authority
• This initial millage was followed by two additional successful millages in 2003 and 2007
• In 2009, a millage request was defeated by less than 1,300 votes (out of 28,000+)
– The 2009 effort would have raised funds exclusively for a Bus Rapid Transit project that served 3 of the 6 cities in the service area
May 3, 2011
• On May 3, 2011, voters in the metropolitan Grand Rapids area served by The Rapid (Interurban Transit Partnership) approved a property tax millage renewal and increase – 50.2% Yes, 49.8% No– 34,432 votes cast– 136 vote margin of victory
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The Transit Master Plan
• Following the unsuccessful millage in 2009, a new strategy was adopted
• The Rapid formed the “Mobile Metro 2030 Task Force” to guide the development of a new 20 year long range plan– 30 member task force representing the entire service area– Community business leaders, non‐profit advocates, higher education professionals, members of the faith community, etc.
Planning Process
• The task force met monthly for approximately one year– Guided by a consulting team, the task force prioritized service enhancements and expansions, reviewed multiple future planning scenarios, and eventually voted to adopt a comprehensive 20 year vision
• This process provided a contrast from the 2009 millage proposal – Visible focus on planning input from high‐profile community leaders and citizens at large
Reframing the Message
• The Transit Master Plan provided a very specific set of outcomes to present to the voters– The 2009 millage effort was characterized by opposing forces as a “federal money grab” and a “boondoggle”
– The Transit Master Plan presented an opportunity to reverse this dialogue by championing a plan that was developed by “the people”
Education and Outreach
• Previous Election Analysis• Targeting• Timeline• Prioritization• Messaging• Outreach
Telling the Story• Arm your advocates and supporters with a simple narrative based on the facts and benefits of your proposal– Depending on your agency’s capacity, divide and conquer as many outreach opportunities as possible (i.e. Chamber(s) of Commerce, neighborhood associations and business organizations, local city councils and commissions, student groups, economic development groups, local elected officials, etc.)
– Identify opportunities to spread your message: newsletters, organizational email blasts, collateral materials for 3rd party distribution
Media Outreach
• Assess existing relationships and conduct outreach/briefings as necessary.
• Err on the side of “over‐education.”• Provide an accessible, credible, fact‐based resource for reporters.
• Identify opportunities for positive media coverage that highlight third‐party validation of your agency.
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Educational Materials
• Focus on message discipline– Simplicity– Poll tested– Positive– Tailor to your audience– Diffuse opposition without engaging directly
Campaign and Opposition
• Coordination with a “vote yes” campaign is illegal– However, a “vote yes” campaign has the same right to information as a “vote no” campaign
• i.e. Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests
• Be proactive: don’t let the opposition frame the debate, and let the “yes” campaign do the fighting for you
The Rapid’s EducationalMaterials
The Rapid Reporter
Newspaper‐style publication issued 2‐3 times per year
Transit Master Plan BrochureThis document summarizes the highlights of the Transit Master Plan (TMP).
The focus of this brochure is the TMP process, proposed service enhancements, and cost/service efficiencies.
It is an 8.5”x 11” tri‐fold that served as the ‘folder’ for the following materials.
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Depending on your demographics, multi‐lingual materials may be necessary.
RapidYes Campaign Materials
Door to Door Literature
Front Back
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Absentee Voter Mailer
Front
Back
Micro‐targeted Mailers
Generic Back
Micro‐targeted Mailers
Environmental Front
Environmental back
Youth Front
Youth back
Yard Sign
Social Media/Guerilla Marketing
This incredibly simple design took on a personality of its own and served as a social media share pic, a lapel button, t‐shirt logo, and customizable icon.
A Note about Social Media
• Make sure agency postings are neutral.• Allow discussion to happen, even if it is not positive. We saw many of our supporters actively engage on our profile and others.
• Establish community guidelines and enforce them.
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Peter VargaCEO
The Rapid 300 Ellsworth Ave SW
Grand Rapid, MI 49503
Election Returns:Sustainable Public Transportation Economics
Lessons, strategies, and messages that made the difference
Alison A. Hewitt
Jason Jordan
Peter Varga
Art Guzzetti
Transportation TuesdaysSecond in webinar series for transit CEOs & board members on
economic sustainability – December 6, 2011
The audio and PowerPoint®for today’s webinar will be available at
www.apta.com under “Resource Library” (top of home page) –
“Professional Development” –“APTA Webcasts, Webinars & Online Training”
http://www.apta.com/resources/profdev/webinars/Pages/default.aspx
Transportation TuesdaysAPTA Executive/Board Webinar Series on
Economic Sustainability
Eight Webinars November‐through‐June (2‐3 p.m. Eastern)
•November 8, 2011: Congestion reduction charge & property tax millage
•December 6, 2011: Election results
•January 17, 2012: Financing tools
•February 7, 2012: State commissions
•March 6, 2012: Public‐private partnerships
•April 10, 2012: Naming rights and other miscellaneous revenue sources
•May 15, 2012: Value capture
•June 19, 2012: Road tollsAPTA reserves the exclusive right to revise the program and dates.