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User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
WP6
Miguel Dionisio Pires, Pascal Boderie, Meinte Blaas, Valesca Harezlak, Marieke Eleveld, Sandra Gaytan Aguilar – Deltares – [email protected]
Jean-Luc de Kok, Dirk Lauwaet - Vito
EO-model integration
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
Develop & test methodology to integrate EO (& IS) data with water quality modelling.
6.1 Setup model to study interactions between hydrodynamics, optics and biology
• 1DV model of light attenuation (Kd) for harmonization of complex models and EO
• ‘Box’ Model of Lake Balaton: Kd and biogeochemistry
• Full 3D hydrodynamic & biogeochemistry model Lake Marken
6.2 EO as WQ model input
• Develop methodology to quantify (mis)fit EO & model results
6.3 Integration EO and IS and WQ modelling
• Lake Balaton & Lake Marken: apply EO based methodology for model recalibration
WP6 goal & activities
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
• Interpolation & reconstruction
in time & space, historic
trends, unobserved variables,
fluxes
• Scenario studies, impact
assessments
• Forecasting (NRT) of algal
blooms, resuspension events
& spills
Why models?
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
Modelling framework to relate sparse or piecemeal data sets to each other and to the system dynamics
data → information → insight by model context & structure
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
• Increased spatial
resolution & accuracy
– Cal/Val, Assimilation
• Products for complex
conditions: high turbidity,
extreme Chla, dark
waters etc.
Why next generation EO?
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
• 4 basins approach – Diagnostic Kd model:
Evaluate variants
– Dynamic BGC
Lake Balaton
Keszthely
Szigliget
Szemes
Siófok
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
Empirical (D3D default) Kd(PAR) = Kd,w+εi [Ci]+…
Ci=CDet, CAlg, CIM, …
Spectral (Kirk,Buiteveld) Kd (λ) = f(a,b)
a = aw+aCDOM+ aphyt + adet
b = bw+ bNAP+bphyt
Kd (sub)models Balaton
Kd (PAR) (Kirk/Buiteveld)
vs. in situ observed 2008-2014 (n=287)
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
Kd spectral vs. Landsat 8 observed 2014 (Acolite, Kd QAA, Van der Zande)
March
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
Kd spectral vs. Landsat 8 observed 2014 (Acolite, Kd QAA, Van der Zande)
July
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
Development campaign IS data matchups (sorted)
Good match spectral & empirical methods,
for different reasons….
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
• BLOOM ‘stand
alone’: compute
optimal algal
population
matching observed
nutrient and
energy conditions
Diagnostic BGC model Balaton
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
• Modelled Chl-a in line with observations
– nutrients dominant steering (limiting) resource, light secondary
• Calibration: relatively low fraction of TotN & TotP made
available (25-35%) in order to match observations
• Model tends to exhaust DIN & DIP more than observed,
and suggests co-limitation, whereas obs. suggest N-
limitation
Conclusions diagn. BGC model Balaton
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
• 4 connected basins
• Hydro-meteo climatology
data
• Algal production, nuts
consumption, transport
• Inorganic matter applied
as forcing function
Dynamic BGC model Balaton
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
Chl-a
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
Keszthely
Siófok
Tot-N
Tot-N
NO3
NO3
Tot-P
Tot-P PO4
PO4
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
• General bi-modal seasonal plankton-Chla cycle reasonably well
reproduced, 2014 anomalously low summer bloom not well captured
• Model tendency for P limitation, observation indicate N-limitation
– Total-N too low, in particular in west
– Total-P mostly off in spring (discrepancy not systematic)
• TSM applied as forcing condition: little light limitation found in model
Prognostic BGC model conclusions Balaton
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
• Turbid, shallow
lake
• From eutrophic
(1980s) to
mesotrophic
(2010s)
• Many human
interventions
Case 2: Lake Marken
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
• Combined SPM &
phytoplankton model
– Waves drive
resuspension and
settling of algae and
TSM
– Biotic-abiotic
Interaction via
turbidity
– No flocculation yet
Prognostic BGC model
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
From eutrophic to mesotrophic
Shift in plankton types:
• Change in seasonal cycle
• Coupling to resuspension
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
Calibration results BGC model
Chl-a 2006, Lake Marken Center
MERIS: Hydropt (ServIJ, Eleveld)
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
Calibration results BGC model
TSM 2006, Lake Marken Center
MERIS: Hydrop (ServIJ, Eleveld)
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
TSM Model v.s. MERIS (Hydropt) Resuspension event
[mg/l]
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
Chl-a Model v.s. MERIS (Hydropt) Resuspension event
[µg/l]
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
TSM Model v.s. MERIS (Hydropt) Calm summer period
[mg/l]
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
Chla Model v.s. MERIS (Hydropt) Calm summer period
[µg/l]
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
• Hydrodynamics, temperature and oxygen OK (not shown)
• Resuspension of TSM: phase OK, amplitude & spatial patterns
variable quality
• Blooms during calm conditions quite OK
• Resuspension effect on phytoplankton not yet OK: particle behaviour
to be improved
Lake Marken conclusions
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
• Objectives
– Use of EO data for enhanced calibration of WQ model
& assessment of WQ model performance (Deltares)
– Calibration based on an algorithm for spatial pattern
comparison (VITO)
T6.2 Model-EO
Algorithm development (VITO)
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
Example Markermeer TSM
MERIS MODEL
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
• MERIS RS data Markermeer 2006
• Markermeer model output sample 2006
• Tools repository made available by Deltares
• Literature review model quality metrics (Fuzzy k, PCA)
• Matlab reprojection RS data on model grid + geo-features added with
m_map
• Test comparison RS – Model Output
Model-EO (Vito)
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
Three-step approach: A. preprocess RS data with interpolation
B. dominant pattern comparison RS-Model focus on EOF/Principal Components
C. main algorithm: weighted penalty function
Challenge: interpretation alternative step B: consider more direct empirical approach (e.g. direct observation-based pattern metrics)
Algorithm available: September 2016
Comparison with MERIS 2006 (Current analysis: 2016)
Approach
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
• Two independent
exercises:
– Vito
– Deltares
Visual appreciation
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
A variety of Goodness of Fit indicators :
• Absolute Mean Bias
• Normalized Mean Bias (norm. to the maximum difference)
• RMSE
• R²
• Relative RMSE (Relative to the average observed value)
• Mismatch in amplitude (Std dev. model/std. dev. Obs)
• Index of Agreement (Willmott, C. J. 1981)
• Model Efficiency (Nash Sutcliffe 1970, Rose et al., 2009)
• Target value (Stow et al., 2009)
𝑀𝐸 = 1 − 𝑀𝑖 − 𝑂𝑖
2𝑁𝑖=1
𝑂𝑖 − 𝑂 2 𝑁𝑖=1
𝑋 = 𝐶𝑅𝑀𝑆𝐸
𝜎𝑂=
1𝑁
𝑀𝑖 −𝑀 − (𝑂𝑖 − 𝑂 ) 2𝑁𝑖=1
1𝑁 𝑂𝑖 − 𝑂 2 𝑁𝑖=1
𝑌 = 𝐵𝐼𝐴𝑆
𝜎𝑂=
1𝑁 𝑀𝑖 − 𝑂𝑖𝑁𝑖=1
1𝑁 𝑂𝑖 − 𝑂 2 𝑁𝑖=1
𝑇𝑉 = 𝑋2 + 𝑌2
Chl-a
TSM
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
TSM
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
Chlorophyll-a
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
TSM 2006 Chl-a 2006
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
Summary TV & ME
• Net TV & ME in this case almost identical
indicators, TV decomposes into different
components that convey extra info. TV will be
leading indicator in follow up work, but possibly
w some minor modification
• Mismatch seasonal pattern in Chla is most
important shortcoming for the Lake Marken
model
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
Summary WP6
• Models work well, despite difficult systems
• UITZICHT: web application available
(http://www.onderwaterlicht.nl/nl/uitzicht.ht
ml)
• EO-model calibration tool still in
development
User Uptake Workshop
16-17 November 2017
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
Thank you
