BY

Engr. Munawar Iqbal Director (Hydropower)

PPIB, Ministry of Water and Power,

Government of Pakistan

Kathmandu, Nepal

9-10 May 2016

C O N T E N T S

Overview of Power Mix

Hydropower Potential of Pakistan

Evolution of hydro model in Pakistan

Salient futures of Power Policy 2002 & 2015

Success Stories in Private Sector

Concluding Remarks

PAKISTAN POWER SECTOR -

POWER MIX

Power Mix is a blend of:

• Hydel

• Wind (50 MW)

• Oil

• Gas

• Nuclear

• Coal (150 MW)

PAKISTAN POWER SECTOR -

TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITY

4

Total Installed Capacity 25,208 MW

MW %

Public Sector

Hydel 7,013 28

Thermal 5,458 22

Nuclear 787 3

Total 13,258 53

Private Sector

IPPs 9,528 42

K-E 2,422 10

Total 11,950 52

Public Sector Hydel, 7013, 27.8%

Public Sector

Thermal, 5458, 21.6%

Nuclear, 787, 3.1%

Private Sector, 11950, 47.4%

Wind 50 MW

HYDROPOWER

PUBLIC SECTOR

• WAPDA • Provinces

PRIVATE SECTOR

• Private Power & Infrastructure Board (PPIB) • Alternate Energy Development Board (AEDB) • Provinces

RESPONSIBILITY

Capacity Enhanced

3,478 MW 4,888 MW

Opening date 1976

Impounds 9.7 MAF

Height 143.26 m

Construction 1968-1976

Tarbela Dam

Coordinates 33.142083°N 73.645015°E

Construction 1961-1967

Type of dam Embankment dam

Impounds Jhelum River

Height 147 m (482 ft)

Total capacity 7.390 MAF

Turbines 10 x 100 MW

Capacity 1,000 MW

Mangla Dam

Capacity 243 MW

Impounds 25,300 acre·ft

Height 76.2 m

Commission 1960

Warsak Dam

Capacity 1,450 MW

Impounds 20,700 AF

head 69 m

Construction

1995-2004

Ghazi Barotha Dam

S# Name of Project Province

Installed Capacity

(MW)

1 Tarbela KPK 3478

2 Warsak KPK 240

3 Jaban (Malakand-I) KPK 20

4 Dargai (Malakand-II) KPK 20

5 Kurram Garhi KPK 4

6 Mangla AJK 1000

7 Ghazi Barotha Punjab 1450

8 Chashma Punjab 184

9 Rasul Punjab 22

10 Shadiwal Punjab 14

11 Nandipur Punjab 14

12 Chichoki Punjab 13

13 Satpara Gilgit-Baltistan 16

14 Kar Gah Phase VI Gilgit-Baltistan 4

HYDROPOWER IN OPERATION By WAPDA

6479 MW

S# Name of Project Province

Installed Capacity

(MW)

KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA 1 Malakand-III KPK 81

2 12 Small HPP KPK 3.2

3 Reshun KPK 2.8

87 MW

GoAJ&K 1 Jagran AJ&K 30.4

2 Kathai AJ&K 3.2

3 5 Small HPPs AJ&K 3.1

4 Kundal Shahi AJ&K 2

38.7 MW

HYDROPOWER IN OPERATION

S# Name of Project Province

Installed Capacity

(MW)

GoGILGIL-BALTISTAN 1 Naltar Gilgit Baltistan 18

2 Gilgit Gilgit Baltistan 10.63

3 Skardu-I Gilgit Baltistan 6.96

4 Chilas-I Gilgit Baltistan 5.62

5 Hunza Gilgit Baltistan 5.13

6 Shyok Gilgit Baltistan 4.85

7 Astore Gilgit Baltistan 3.11

8 Kachura Phase II Gilgit Baltistan 3

9 Ghizar, Thak, Phander Gilgit Baltistan 6

10 Bordas Gilgit Baltistan 2

1 84 Small HPPs Gilgit Baltistan

47.7

HYDROPOWER IN OPERATION

S# Name of Project Province

Installed Capacity

(MW)

GoGILGIL-BALTISTAN 1 Naltar Gilgit Baltistan 18

2 Gilgit Gilgit Baltistan 10.63

3 Skardu-I Gilgit Baltistan 6.96

4 Chilas-I Gilgit Baltistan 5.62

5 Hunza Gilgit Baltistan 5.13

6 Shyok Gilgit Baltistan 4.85

7 Astore Gilgit Baltistan 3.11

8 Kachura Phase II Gilgit Baltistan 3

9 Ghizar Gilgit Baltistan 2

10 Thak Gilgit Baltistan 2

11 Phandar Gilgit Baltistan 2

12 Bordas Gilgit Baltistan 2

13

84 Small Hydropower Projects ( less than 2 MW each)

Gilgit Baltistan

47.7

HYDROPOWER IN OPERATION

113 MW ( off Grid)

Multan

B A L U C H I S T A N

Quetta

Loralai

Zhob

Dadhar

Kalat

Kharan

Uthal

Turbat

Khuzdar

Kohlo

Chagi

I ndu

s R

iver

Khairpur

Larkana

Nawabshah

Sanghar

HyderabadMirpur Khas

Jacobabad

Shikarpur

THAR PARKAR

KarachiThatha

Dadu

S I

N

D H

Mianwali

Sargodha

Sheikhupura

Lahore

Faisalabad

Khaniwal

Bahawalnagar

Vehari

Okara

Sahiwal

Dera Ghazi Khan

Chakwal

Jehlum R

iver

Chinab River

Ravi R

iver

Sut lej R

iver

Jhang

Bahawalpur

Rahimyar Khan

I ndus

Rive

r

G I L G I T B A L T I S T A N

Gilgit

Chilas

Kabul R.

Chitral

Malakand

Mangora

Dir Madian

Kalam

Landi Kotal Mardan

Peshawar

Dera Ismail Khan

BannuMiramshah

Parachinar

K H Y B E R

P A K H T U N

K H W A

Saw

at R

.Pan

jkor

a R.

Kan

dhia

R.

MUZAFFARABAD

SakarduKhaplu

Sirinagar

Punch

ISLAMABAD

Kaghan

Rawalpindi

Mangla

Wolar Lake

Punch

Rive

r

Neelam

Rive

r

Jehlum River

J A M

M U

& K

H A

S H M

I R

Naran

ARABIAN SEA

Gawadar

I N

D

I

A

A F

G H

A N

I S

T A

N

I R A N

C H I N A

Frontier Undefined

I ndus River

Gilgit RiverM

astu

j Rive

r

Chi

t ral

Rive

r

P

U

N

J

A B

HYDROPOWER

Area of Focus

Gilgit-Baltistan

Coal Reserved

BACK

HYDROPOWER

POTENTIAL NEXT

Hydropower Potential – River Wise

Indus

39717

MW Jhelum 5624 MW

Swat 1803 MW

Kunhar 1480 MW Punch

462 MW

others 9704 MW

Kandiah

1006

MW

LOCATION OF HPPs ON JEHLUM RIVER

Mangla PH

N

Garhi Habibullah

590 MW Mahl HPP

640 MW Azad Pattan

HPP

720 MW Karot HPP

500 MW Chakothi

Hattian HPP

PUNJAB

Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa

AJ&K

147 MW Patrind

HPP

Mah

l Riv

er

18 BACK

ATHMUQAM

Kundal Shahi

Dudhnial

Sharda

Nara

Kaghan

Halmat

Toabat

Janawai

Jagran

Panjgran TITHWAL

NEELUM RIVER

NEELUM VALLEY- MAJOR HYDEL SCHEMES

Legend

Dudhnial 800 MW Athmuqam 350 MW Ashkot 300 MW N-J 969 MW Total= 2419 MW

BACK

Gulpur

KOTLI

Gulpur HPP

Sehra HPP

PROJECTS ON POONCH RIVER IN AJK

SEHRA 130 MW KOTLI 100 MW GLPUR 100 MW RAJDHANI 132 MW Total= 462 MW

BACK

102 MW Batta Kundi

HPP

188 MW Naran HPP

870 MW Suki Kinari

HPP

300 MW Balakot HPP

Balkot

Naran

Kaghan

Paras

147 MW Patrind HPP

PROJECTS ON

KUNHAR RIVER IN KP

Bata Kundi 102 MW Naran 188 MW Suki Kinari 870 MW Balakot 300 MW Patrind 150 MW Total= 1610 MW

BACK

LOCATION MAP

RIVER INDUS

TRIBUTARIES

SPATGAH 496 MW

PALAS VALLEY 665MW

Dasu 4000 MW

Duber Khwar 130

MW

Khan Khwar 72

MW

Allai Khwar 121 MW

Diamer Basha

4500 MW

Tarbela 3478 MW

KAIGAH 548 MW Bunji

7100 MW

Yulbo 3000 MW

TANGUS 2100 MW

Warsak 243 MW

BACK

Kalam Asrit HPP

P=197 MW

H=210 m

Asrit Kedam HPP

P=215 MW

H=214 m

Madain HPP

P=157 MW

H=150 m

Gabral Kalam HPP

P=137 MW

H=205 m

PH PH

PH

PH

SWAT VALLEY HPPs

BACK

PROJECTS ON SWAT RIVER IN KPK

58MW

79 MW

Shydo

Shydo

Shydo

Shydo

Shydo

Shydo

Shydo

Shydo CHITRAL

BACK

24736 MW

21125 MW

6450 MW

7291 MW

193 MW

1 MW

HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL

Total =59796 MW

Un-Tapped

STATUS OF HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT IN PAKISTAN

TOTAL =60000 MW

Under

Process

(PPP)

Demand-supply gap up to 6000 MW resulting

in load-shedding of up to 8-16 hours per day

Power Planners have projected a demand of

31757 MW by the year 2020

If 18477 MW is assumed as de-rated capacity,

country would need additional 13,300 MW

(net) by the year 2020, requiring an

investment of $15 billion

Scarcity of funds in government sector so

private sector is the next option

For private sector, govt. have issued policies

both federal and provincial levels

PAKISTAN POWER SECTOR –

CURRENT SCENARIO

EVOLUTION OF POWER MODELS IN PAKISTAN

PUBLIC SECTOR (WAPDA)

1958 1994 1995 1998 2002 2012 2015

Private Sector

PPP

Hydel Policy 1995

Power Policy 1994

Power Policy 1998

Power Policy 2002

Power Policy 2015

Renewable Policy 2006

KPK 2006, Punjab 2006

GENERAL FEATURES

• HPPs to be developed on BOOT Basis

• Concession Period allowed upto 30 years

• Tariff to be calculated on COST PLUS basis

• 100% foreign ownership allowed with minimum 20% equity contribution requirements

• Sponsors can divest equity after six (6) years of project commissioning

• Performance obligations of Power Purchaser and Provinces guaranteed by GOP

• Responsibility of power transmission facilities rests with the Power Purchaser

POLICY - Features

FISCAL & FINANCIAL INCENTIVES

• Tax Holiday

• 5% concessionary Customs Duty

• Tariff adjustable for changes in Benchmark Interest

Rates (LIBOR/KIBOR)

• Multi-Year, Long-term Tariff

• Attractive Return on Equity (ROE 17%)

• Two-part tariff structure of fixed 'Capacity' and variable

'Energy' components

• Conversion of Pak Rupee and remittance of Foreign

Exchange ensured by GOP

• Exchange rate variation for up to COD

POLICY - Features

RISK PROTECTING FEATURES

• Continuity of payments in case of Political Force Majeure

• Protection against Change in Law Risk

• Compensation Payment in case of project termination due

to GOP default

• Foreign component of fixed and variable O&M Cost to be

indexed with US CPI

• At COD, Capital Cost to be fixed in US dollars base

• Periodic adjustments in the Debt Service Component to

cover exchange rate variation

• Hydrological Risk covered by assuring Capacity

Payment upto 90%-95% of the Tariff

POLICY - Features

PROJECT AGREEMENTS

TARIFF DETERMINATION

Disapproved

approved

Expression

of Interest

Reg. of

Investors

Proposal

submission

Issuance of LOI

Evaluation

Ranking

Registration

Cancelled

Feasibility

Study

Monitoring by

POE

LOI

Cancelled

Project Re-

advertised

Feasibility

Completed

Issuance of LOS

Tariff Petition

before

NEPRA

NEPRA Approval

of Tariff

not completed

Successfully

Completed

PROCESSING OF UNSOLICITED PROJECTS ON RAW SITES

Major Activities

under LOS

Environmental

Approval

CONTINUED………………..

EPC Contractor

through ICB

Land

Acquisition Arrange

Financing

Direct

Agreements

EPC Tariff

Approval

Project Agreements

WUA, PPA, IA(s)

Fin. Close

Construction

COD

IPPs

NEPRA

Gas/ Fuel Supplier

LOI/ LOS/ IA

GSA/ FSA

DIA

GoP

CPPAG

Tripartite LOS

CSA: Coal Supply Agreement GSA: Gas Supply Agreement PPA: Power Purchase Agreement IA: Implementation Agreement DIA: Direct Implementation Agreement

Provinces Lenders

IPP MODEL BEING EXECUTED BY PPIB

Financing

Transmission Licence

OGRA

Fuel Price

EPC/ O&M Contractors

EPC /O&M Contracts

NTDC

Pu

rchase

Lice

nce

SUCCESS STORIES

SUCCESS STORIES OF HPPs in Private Sector

84 MW New Bong Escape HPP • Project Company : Laraib Energy Limited • Main Sponsor : HUBCO, Pakistan • Lenders : ADB, IFC, IsDB, Proparco, HBL, NBP • Project Cost : 215 Million US$ • Capacity : 84 MW • Energy : 471 GWh/a • Firm Tariff (levelized) : 8.545 USc/kWh • Financial Closing : December 2009 • Commissioning : March 2013

SUCCESS STORIES OF HPPs in Private Sector

150 MW Patrind HPP • Project Company : Star Hydropower Limited

• Main Sponsor : K-Water, Korea

• Lenders : ADB, IFC, IsDB, KEXIM

• Project Cost : 362.4 Million US$

• Capacity : 150 MW

• Energy : 641.3 GWh/a

• Firm Tariff (levelized) : 7.0498 USc/kWh

• Financial Closing : December 2012

• Commissioning : March 2017

Project Layout

WEIR

SANDTRAP

HEADRACE TUNNEL

ACCESS BRIDGE POWER HOUSE

SURGE TANK

MUZAFFARABAD

PATRIND VILLAGE

TARCHEELA VILLAGE

KUNHAR RIVER

JHELUM RIVER

① WEIR & SANDTRAP ② POWERHOUSE

①

②

Current Status of Works POWERHOUSE SITE

①

②

③ ④ ⑤

Physical Progress

Diversion Tunnel

Physical Progress

Access Bridge for Powerhouse

Current Status of Works WEIR SITE

④ Weir Site Camp

(In Progress) ② DT Outlet Portal (Water Diversion, 09 Apr

2013)

② ①

④ ⑤

⑥

⑦

⑤ Stock Yard

(Completed)

⑦ Weir & Sandtrap Excavation

(In Progress)

① DT Inlet Portal (Water Diversion, 09 Apr

2013)

⑥ Adit Tunnel for HRT

(145m Excavated)

WEIR SANDTRAP

BACK

SUCCESS STORIES OF HPPs in Private Sector

Project Company : Mira Power Limited • Main Sponsor : KOSEP, Korea • Lenders : ADB, IFC, KEXIM • Project Cost : 317.17 Million US$ • Capacity : 102 MW • Energy : 475 GWh/a • Tariff (levelized) : 9.0241 USc/kWh • Financial Closing : October 2015 • Commissioning : October 2019

102 MW Gulpur HPP

102 MW GULPUR HYDROPOWER PROJECT

102 MW GULPUR HYDROPOWER PROJECT

BACK

SUCCESS STORIES OF HPPs in Private Sector

870 MW Suki Kinari HPP

• Project Company : Suki Kinari Private Limited • Main Sponsor : Al-Jumaia, Saudi Arabia • Lenders : CEXIM, ICB China • Project Cost : 1956.22 Million US$ • Capacity : 870 MW • Energy : 3081 GWh/a • Firm Tariff (levelized) : 8.8145 USc/kWh • Financial Closing : June 2016 • Commissioning : June 2021

SUCCESS STORIES OF HPPs -in Private Sector

1100 MW Kohala HPP • Project Company : Kohala Hydro Co. Pvt. Limited • Main Sponsor : CSAIL, CTGC China • Lenders : CEXIM, ICBC China, IFC • Project Cost : 2300 Million US$ • Capacity : 1100 MW • Energy : 5093 GWh/a • Feasibility Tariff (levelized) : 7.2365 USc/kWh • Financial Closing : December 2017 • Commissioning : December 2023-24

720 MW Karot HPP • Project Company : Karot Power Co. Pvt. Ltd • Main Sponsor : CSAIL, CTGC China • Lenders : CEXIM, ICBC, IFC, SRF • Project Cost : 1698.26 Million US$ • Capacity : 720 MW • Energy : 3174 GWh/a • Firm Tariff (levelized) : 7.6152 USc/kWh • Financial Closing : August 2016 • Commissioning : August 2021

SUCCESS STORIES OF HPPs -in Private Sector

969 MW NEELUM JHELUM HYDROPOWER PROJECT

PUBLIC SECTOR PROJECT

NEELUM JHELUM LAYOUT PLAN

BACK

INTRO

PPIB’s PORTFOLIO OF UPCOMING PRIVATE POWER PROJECTS (IPPs)

Description/ Year

Hydel Coal Gas Total

(MW)

No. of

Projects MW No. MW No. MW No.

2017 150 1 3,300 3 0 0 3,450 4

2018 0 0 2,640 2 1000 4 3,640 6

2019 232 2 1910 4 0 0 2,142 6

2020 1,360 2 0 0 0 0 1,360 2

2021 870 1 0 0 0 0 870 1

2022 2,033 5 0 0 120 1 2,153 6

2023 1,690 2 0 0 0 0 1,690 2

2024 1,088 4 0 0 0 0 1,088 4

2025 80 1 0 0 0 0 80 1

Grand Total 7,503 18 7,850 9 1120 5 16,473 32

54

How Hydropower is Renewable

The circulation of earth’s water as it circulates from

the land to the sky and back again is called the ‘hydrological cycle’ or ‘water cycle’.

P =ρ.g. η. QH

P = 8.5 x Q H (SI Units)

Head = H , Discharge = Q

Methematical Concept

Renewable NON-Renewable

CASA-1000 POWER SUPPLY PROJECT TO BE INAUGURATED ON MAY 12, 2016

The project, signed between Tajikistan and Pakistan, would be completed at a cost of $1.2 billion in two years

The Central Asia-South Asia (CASA) 1000 project to supply one thousand megawatts electricity from Tajikistan to Pakistan would formally be inaugurated in Dushanbe on Thursday.

The project, signed between Tajikistan and Pakistan, would be completed at a cost of 1.2 billion dollars in two years.

The project would help Pakistan get cheaper and clean energy to minimize its electricity shortages.

Afghanistan has already given a guarantee to ensure security of 750 km long transmission line.

According to Ambassador of Tajikistan to Pakistan, all arrangements including necessary financial resources have been made to undertake the project forthwith.

www.ppib.gov.pk