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Michael Peak, British Council
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EDUCATIONINTELLIGENCE
07/06/2011
EDUCATIONINTELLIGENCE
Knowing your international student audience:Implications of visa issues and fees
EDUCATIONINTELLIGENCE
07/06/2011 Overview
• The context: Internationally mobile students
• What drives student mobility?– British Council research – Students in Motion– Visas– Fees
• Student Insight: the decisions of prospective international students
• British Council global campaigns – some examples
EDUCATIONINTELLIGENCE
07/06/2011
Nearly 50% of all mobile students study in one of 5 countries (Global distribution of international students, 2008. From OECD Education at a Glance 2010)
EDUCATIONINTELLIGENCE
07/06/2011
(600,000) (400,000) (200,000) - 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000
Ireland
Malaysia
Korea
Japan
India
Canada
Australia
Germany
France
United Kingdom
China
United States
Combined Student Flows
Sources: UIS and Project Atlas (IIE) – British Council, Global Gauge study
Inbound studentsOutbound students
EDUCATIONINTELLIGENCE
07/06/2011
International students in the UK
• International students in the UK = 455,660
• continuous growth of international student enrolment in 2009/10, marking 10% increase:– 6% growth in the EU enrolments to the UK– 11% growth in the non-EU enrolments to the UK
• PG growth of 10%, UG of 9%. – Most pronounced growth at Postgraduate Taught level (13%)
• 42% PGR and 57% PGT students are international
EDUCATIONINTELLIGENCE
07/06/2011
Where do they come from?What do they study?
• India and China make up nearly 1/3 of non EU students in UK HE
• The top 5 sending countries account for more than 50% of non-EU students
• The PG/UG split is almost exactly 50/50
• Most popular subject area is Business and administrative studies (over 93,000 non-EU students in 2009-10).• Electronic and electrical engineering is most popular subject outside of Business disciplines.
EDUCATIONINTELLIGENCE
07/06/2011
Growth markets
Source: HESA (2011)
EDUCATIONINTELLIGENCE
07/06/2011
New students• First year enrolments are one of the most reliable indicators for the future direction
of student enrolments. They grew by 11% in 2009/10– Non-EU enrolments grew by 12%– EU enrolments increased by 7%
• Countries with big growth in commencing students:– Nepal (105%)– Saudi Arabia (63%)– Kazakhstan (57%)
BUT:– South Korea (-1%)– Pakistan (-3%)– Kenya (-5%)
Even though these markets grew overall
EDUCATIONINTELLIGENCE
07/06/2011
Times are changing
– fees introduced (wont directly affect non-EU students)– visa changes (perceptions of UK changing, ease of access
changing)– HE provision improving in traditional sending countries
So institutions increasingly look to offer services/products in different ways
EDUCATIONINTELLIGENCE
07/06/2011
– Data also collated by HESA (but a separate dataset)– UK qualifications now delivered in 223 countries outside of the UK– 78 countries where:
Students studying UK qual in country ≥ students from that country travelling to UK
– 12 countries where more than 5,000 extra students study a UK qual in that country (compared to in the UK)
Studying UK qualifications outside the UK - TNE
EDUCATIONINTELLIGENCE
07/06/2011
Studying UK qualifications outside the UK - TNE
EDUCATIONINTELLIGENCE
07/06/2011
TNE growth markets
EDUCATIONINTELLIGENCE
07/06/2011
So, what about the future? – Students in Motion
• Country specific forecasts – produced with the Economist Intelligence Unit. Demand for study abroad is modelled on:– demographic estimates– household income (cross-section of families with the right
income and children at the right age)– education provision at home – rate opting to study
overseas– macroeconomic determinants of demand for overseas
study: income level, bilateral trade, exchange rate– lag of almost 2 years to see impact of the above
EDUCATIONINTELLIGENCE
07/06/2011
Students in Motion• British Council study looking at future student flows from different
countries to the UK over the short- to mid-term• Countries investigated so far: China, India, Nigeria, Malaysia and USA• Several general findings were made:
– GDP per capita is the main driver for total higher education enrolment
– forecasts for students coming to the UK correlate strongly with• bilateral trade flows• local currency to £ exchange rate• tuition fees in the UK relative to other possible destination
countries
EDUCATIONINTELLIGENCE
07/06/2011
Expect a positive relationship between economic development (GDP per head) and enrolment in tertiary education:
All countries
ALGERIAARMENIA
AUSTRALIAAUSTRIA
AZERBAIJAN
BELARUS BELGIUM
BENIN
BULGARIA
BURKINA FASOBURUNDI
CAMBODIACAMEROONCAPE VERDE
CHINACOLOMBIA
CROATIA
CUBA
CZECH REPUBLIC
DENMARK
EL SALVADOR
ESTONIA
ETHIOPIA
FINLAND
FRANCEGEORGIA
GHANA
GREECE
GUATEMALA
GUINEA
GUYANA
HUNGARY ICELAND
INDIAINDONESIA
IRELANDISRAELITALYJAPANJORDAN
KAZAKHSTANLATVIA
LEBANON
LESOTHO
LITHUANIA
MADAGASCAR
MAURITIUSMEXICO
MOROCCO
NAMIBIA
NETHERLANDSNEW ZEALAND NORWAY
PAKISTAN
PANAMAPERU
PHILIPPINES
POLANDPORTUGALROMANIA
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
SLOVAKIA
SLOVENIA
SOUTH AFRICA
SPAIN
SWAZILAND
SWEDEN
SWITZERLAND
TAJ IKISTAN
THAILANDTUNISIATURKEY
UKRAINEUNITED KINGDOM
UNITED STATES
URUGUAY
UZBEKISTAN
VENEZUELA
YEMEN
y = 0.80x - 3.88
R2 = 0.77
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0
log(GDP per capita, PPP $)
log(
enro
lmen
t rat
e)
All
EDUCATIONINTELLIGENCE
07/06/2011
Developed countries
AUSTRALIA
AUSTRIA
BELGIUM
CZECH REPUBLIC
DENMARK
ESTONIA
FINLAND
FRANCE
GREECE
HUNGARY ICELAND
IRELANDISRAELITALY
JAPAN
LATVIA
NETHERLANDS
NEW ZEALAND NORWAYPOLAND
PORTUGAL
RUSSIAN FEDERATIONSLOVENIA
SPAINSWEDEN
SWITZERLAND
UNITED KINGDOM
UNITED STATES
y = -0.00x + 4.21
R2 = 0.00
3
4
5
2.2 2.3 2.4
log(GDP per capita, PPP $)
log(
enro
lmen
t rat
e)
Forecasting total enrolments in HE• Stronger relationship between economic development and enrolment in emerging
markets:
Emerging markets
ALGERIA
ARMENIA
AZERBAIJAN
BELARUS
BENIN
BULGARIA
BURKINA FASOBURUNDI
CAMBODIA
CAMEROONCAPE VERDE
CHINACOLOMBIA
CUBA
EL SALVADOR
ETHIOPIA
GEORGIA
GHANA
GUATEMALA
GUINEA
GUYANAINDIAINDONESIA
JORDANKAZAKHSTANLEBANON
LESOTHOMADAGASCAR
MAURITIUS
MEXICO
MOROCCO
NAMIBIAPAKISTAN
PANAMAPERU
PHILIPPINES
ROMANIA
SOUTH AFRICA
SWAZILAND
TAJ IKISTAN
THAILAND
TUNISIATURKEY
UKRAINE
URUGUAY
UZBEKISTAN
VENEZUELA
YEMEN
y = 7.60x - 13.24
R2 = 0.68
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3
log(GDP per capita, PPP $)
log(
enro
lmen
t rat
e)
EDUCATIONINTELLIGENCE
07/06/2011
Flat rate in the world outward mobility
World HE enrolmentsInternationally mobile students
2000 97,205,098 1.8%
2001 104,103,583 1.8%
2002 113,669,904 1.9%
2003 122,085,254 2.0%
2004 129,690,294 1.9%
2005 135,925,247 1.9%
2006 143,133,002 1.8%
2007 151,253,144 1.8%Source: UNESCO and British Council analysis
EDUCATIONINTELLIGENCE
07/06/2011
Estimated number of Chinese tertiary level students in UK, '000s
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Baseline EIU forecast
Optimistic scenario
Pessimistic scenario
Chinese students studying in the UK(undergraduate and postgraduate), 000s
Source: British Council Students in Motion (2011)
EDUCATIONINTELLIGENCE
07/06/2011
Visas
• Study of the impact of visa changes on student enrolment data– US post 9/11– Australia in 2010– The outlook for the UK
• Perception, post-study work
EDUCATIONINTELLIGENCE
07/06/2011
Pathways will be affected
• British Council analysis of UCAS data (application data 2010):
(Of those applications from a known ‘application centre’): 54% of applications from non-EU domiciled applicants came from within the UK
- A large proportion of UG applicants are already in the UK when they apply!
EDUCATIONINTELLIGENCE
07/06/2011
Student Insight -- the Complexity of Choice
• There are real students behind the numbers and trend lines – each of them with hopes and aspirations for the future
• A student’s choice is based on a complex mix depending on a wide variety of factors
• Importance:– Verifying our knowledge about the market
– Turning anecdotal evidence into empirical evidence
– Capturing shifts in demand before students enrol
– Allowing on-line tracking of student choice at city level
EDUCATIONINTELLIGENCE
07/06/2011
Student Insight: The Student Decision Making study
• Since 2007 the British Council have been exploiting their network and reach to capture the views of prospective international students
• Over 126,000 respondents from over 180 countries
• UK institutions can access the raw data, at city-level, in (almost) real-time
EDUCATIONINTELLIGENCE
07/06/2011
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
China India Nigeria
Wanted the experience of livingoverseas/cultural experience
Better quality ofeducation/course overseas
To improve career prospects
To improve my English languageskills
Obtained scholarship overseas
Course not offered in my owncountry
Experience
Career
Quality
n=13,594 n=6,551 n=1,828
Source: British CouncilStudent Insight
Important factors in your decision to study overseas (China, India, Nigeria).
EDUCATIONINTELLIGENCE
07/06/2011
Major influencers on your decision to study overseas
• Increasingly ‘It was my own decision’ and ‘Parents’ (both for PG and UG students)
• Who suggested the institution(s)?– Friends, classmates, another family member
• Importance of word of mouth and use of alumni
EDUCATIONINTELLIGENCE
07/06/2011
Important factors when selecting institution:(Female, prospective PG Business Studies applicant)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Beijing Guangzhou Hangzhou Shanghai Wuhan
Career prospects
Graduation rates
Institution ranking
Institution reputation
It has world class academics
It offers scholarships
Low tuition fees
On-campus/accommodationfacilities
Other - please specify
Quality of the course
Relatives/friends have studiedthere in the past
Social life
Source: British Council Student Insight (2011)
EDUCATIONINTELLIGENCE
07/06/2011
Important factors when selecting city/location:(Female, prospective PG Business Studies applicant)
Source: British Council Student Insight (2011)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Cosm
opol
itan
Friend
ly an
d welc
omin
g
It is
fun
and
vibra
nt
It is
safe
It is
the
capi
tal c
ity/m
ajor
city
It of
fers
goo
d jo
b pr
ospe
cts
Low liv
ing
expe
nses
Prese
nce
of re
lativ
es/fr
iend
s
Beijing
Wuhan
EDUCATIONINTELLIGENCE
07/06/2011
Student Insight - Summary
• Know your audience• Tailor messages• Importance of influencers and word of
mouth….
EDUCATIONINTELLIGENCE
07/06/2011
Education UK Challenge
Multi-market
On and offline competition designed to profile the value of a UK education and our innovative teaching methods.
Teams from overseas institutions compete against each other in multi-disciplinary challenges created by UK institutions
EDUCATIONINTELLIGENCE
07/06/2011
Video showing the winners of Shine 2011 could not be transferred, but further details can be found here:
http://www.educationuk.org
http://www.educationuk.org/shine
Shine!: The International Student Awards
EDUCATIONINTELLIGENCE
07/06/2011
The futureChallenging times:• Students have more choice:
– increased provision at home;– Increasing number of appealing host countries;– trans-national qualifications;
• External factors:– Visas (for non-EU students)– Fees (for EU students)– Exchange rates
• Can control (to some extent) student perceptions• “International students” must not be lumped in the same
basket (even within a single country)• Timely, tailored market info at city level is crucial
EDUCATIONINTELLIGENCE
07/06/2011
www.britishcouncil.org/educationintelligence
Michael Peak0161 957 [email protected]