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Pre-election Seminar 2015
Current Position (23 March 2015)
http://may2015.com/
Poll of Polls
5-day weighted average LAB
33.5 (-0.5)
CON
32.3 (-0.4)
UKIP
14.7 (-0.2)
LIB
8.5 (+0.1)
GRN
4.9 (-0.1)
A disclaimer!
The views expressed in this seminar are those of the speakers and do not
necessarily represent the views of, and should not be attributed to, Hedges Law.
Housing and DevelopmentVicky Hernandez
Privately Owned Property Crisis
• Biggest housing crisis in a generation!
• Home ownership: lowest point for 30 years
• People being forced into private rental sector
“where they have very little security and even families with children can be forced to move at short notice”
Labour – the solution
Focus on affordable housing in communities:
• “Get Britain Building Again” - at least 200,000 new homes a year by 2020
• Tackle land banking
• Local Authority powers re first time buyers
The Conservatives – the solution
• 200,000 starter homes for first time buyers at 20% discount
• Extension of Equity Loan part of Help to Buy to 2020
The Conservatives – the solution
"Thatcher-style" right-to-buy scheme
The Lib Dems – the solution
• Plan to build 300,000 houses a year
• “Rent to Own” scheme
• Local authority powers to seize empty homes
UKIP – the solution
• UK Brownfield Agency
• Major planning decisions to be ratified by local referendum
The Green Party – the solution
• Plan to build 500,000 social rented homes by 2020
• Abolish Right to Buy…
• ..but introduce “Right to Sell”
Common Themes
• More house building
Are housing targets achievable?
• Planning constraints• Lack of available land• Land banking• No building by the state• Housing Association red-tape• Shortage of skills and materials• Fewer smaller builders
Common Themes
• From tenant to owner
Private Rental Sector
The Green Party
• Rent caps and longer tenancies
• Living Rent Commission
• Tenants to get “additional legal protection”
UKIP
• Three to five year “mediumhold” leases
The Lib Dems
• Mini- lease (6 months’ probation, 3 year fixed term)
• Reduced landlord responsibilities
The Conservatives
Labour
• Capped rent increases
• Longer term lets
• “rip off” letting agents
Common Themes
• Longer leases
• Capped rents
• Greater regulation
Personal TaxationMelissa Maple
Hernandez
The current position based on the 2015 Conservative Budget
• Was it designed to be an election friendly budget perhaps?
• Income Tax– Personal Allowance increased to £10,600 for 2015/16– This will rise to £10,800 in 2016/17 and £11,000 in 2017/18– Starting level of 40% tax will rise from £41,865 to £42,385 for
2015/16 with further increases to £42,700 in 2016/17 and £43,330 in 2017/18
Sounds impressive? On a £45,000 salary this means you take home £33,425 as against £33,241 last year. An increase of £184 or £15.33 per month.
The current position based on the 2015 Conservative Budget
• A couple of point scorers!• New savings tax allowance of £1,000 from April
2016 (reduced to £500 for higher rate taxpayers) • Ability to move money in and out of ISAs without
infringing the tax free contribution limit• New ‘Help to buy’ ISA for those saving for a
deposit
The current position based on the 2015 Conservative Budget
• Capital Gains Tax– 28% rate of tax remains for individuals and trusts (or 18% for basic rate
taxpayers)– Personal Allowance increased to £11,100 for 2015/16 for individuals and
£5,550 for trusts – Entrepreneurs relief remains for now but qualifying conditions have been
tightened with immediate effect– Introduction of Capital Gains Tax for non-UK residents on sale of UK property
from 6 April 2015
• Inheritance Tax– Personal Allowance remains at £325,000 for 2015/16– Potential threat to Deeds of Variation
Conservative
Conservative offering
• To increase the Personal Allowance to £12,500
• To raise the earning threshold at which people start paying tax from £41,865 to £50,000
• When – by 2020……
Conservative offering
• To raise the Inheritance Tax threshold but to what level is unclear – anyone remember the same promise in 2007?
• ‘Leaked documents’ suggest a new £175,000 tax free band per person applying to family homes or main residents passing to a direct descendant
What David Cameron says…….
“When you're taking the country through difficult times and difficult decisions you've got to take the country with you. That means permanently trying to make the argument that what you're doing is fair and seen to be fair.”
David Cameron
Labour offering
• To introduce a lower 10p starting rate of tax
• To introduce a 50p top rate of tax for high earners
• Bring in a ‘mansion tax’ on properties worth over £2,000,000
Labour offering
Labour offering
• ‘Mansion Tax’– Annual Tax– Would rise in line with house prices– The rate has not yet been revealed but based on
the amount that Labour are hoping to raise best guesstimates would suggest that the average figure will be about £11,111 per household
What Ed Miliband says….
“The new generation of Labour is different. Different attitudes, different ideas, different ways of doing politics.”
Ed Miliband
The Lib Dem Offering
• To increase the Personal Allowance to £12,500 by 2020 but with an immediate rise to £11,000 in April 2016
• To increase the rate of Capital Gains Tax from 28% to 35%
• To lower the Personal Allowance for Capital Gains Tax from £10,900 to £2,500
The Lib Dem Offering
• Originally Lib Dem were very much in favour of the ‘Mansion Tax’ with proposals of 1% paid annually on any property over £2,000,000
• The proposal has now been re-branded as an increase added to the top bands of council tax
What Nick Clegg says….
“Our Sheffield and London homes are worth well over a million but the bank owns most of them - we are mortgaged up to the gills.”
Nick Clegg
UKIP Offering
• Remove tax on minimum wage• Reduce income tax from 40p to 35p for people
earning between £42,285 and £55,000 • Raise the Personal Allowance to £13,500 by
2020• Abolish Inheritance Tax at a cost of £3 billion!
What Nigel Farage says…
“I think frankly when it comes to chaos you ain't seen nothing yet.”
Nigel Farage
The Green Party Offering
• To introduce a Living Wage• To introduce income tax at 50% on earnings
over £100,000• Original proposals also included introducing a
‘citizen’s income’ of £72 per week in place of the Personal Allowance
• This has now been scrapped
The Green Party Offering
• To introduce a new wealth tax of up to 2% on multi-millionaires
• Original proposals included introducing a ‘citizen’s income’ of £72 per week in place of the Personal Allowance
• This has now been scrapped
What Natalie Bennett says…
“The Greens are the only alternative to the ‘indistinguishable’ big Westminster parties.”
Natalie Bennett
Can we trust any ofthese manifestos?
• Years of spin
• The expenses scandal
• The Leveson scandal
Conclusion
Agriculture and Commercial Property
Mark Reynolds
Agriculture Is it important to Britain?• 464,000 people in agriculture• Agriculture produces 60% of food consumed in the UK• UK food and non-alcoholic drink related exports rose to
£12.8 bn in 2013• Farming output rose to £25.7bn in 2013• Net worth of UK farming estimated to be £220bn in 2012
Yes it is!!! But what do the parties say?
Traditionally closely allied to farmers and landowners
“[M]ake no mistake about it, the farming industry's affiliation with the Conservatives is nearly as old as the hills……. There is, of course, an obvious symbiosis between a Conservative party which stands for traditional capitalist enterprise and good old wealth, and the 35,000 or so landed gentry who today own half of Britain.” – Land Magazine
The Conservatives – party of the countryside?
Typical landowners and possible Conservative voters
What the Conservatives have to sayElizabeth Truss, Defra Secretary of State, to NFU members at last September’s Tory party conference:
“Your industry is bigger than the aeronautical and motor industry, it’s a huge industry and it’s not been viewed like that within the economy in the past… We need to get that message across about how vital it is to our well-being and for
our own security.”
• food and farming needs to be at the centre of the economic agenda
• we need our farmers to have access to the technology and opportunities that others have around the world
• “This Government is committed to supporting farming and the industry’s vital role in the rural economy”
George Eustice Minister of State for Agriculture and Food :
“It's our objective to grow the agriculture industry. We've got further to go with regulations – we've cut farm inspections by 30,000 a year and
guidance by 80 per cent. We need to open markets, including new export markets. We also want to do more to make sure the public are
buying British produce that's grown here. The first job of Government is defence and protecting the industry and that's why we will take the
tough decision to roll back disease such as bovine TB, which is devastating the industry as it is.”
• Otherwise the Tories have been largely silent on agriculture and the rural economy
• Notably for those in rural communities. The Tories have abolished the Agricultural Wages Board
Labour – Rural PoliciesLabour focus on the higher cost of living in rural Britain. They pledge to:
• Deliver winter fuel payments early to pensioners using off grid energy
• Bring the off-grid energy sector under the remit of the regulator
• Devolve billions of pounds and powers, including over public transport networks, to country regions.
• Tackle the cost of doing business in rural area by freezing business rates and energy bills for small and medium enterprises.
Liberal Democrats – Rural Polices
Largely silent on the countryside. The Lib Dems have said:
“We need to support young people, investment in transport, broadband and business support. We need to build on the regional growth fund and give more power locally to make
decisions”
• New measures announced in the Budget to make it easier for farmers to plan and invest for the future: “We are increasing the period over which self-employed farmers can average their profits for income tax purposes from 2 years to 5 years”
• In the Lib-Dems 78 pages pre-manifesto voted on at their last conference the only reference to agriculture was in relation to the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy.
• There was no mention of any policy that was specifically aimed at dealing with rural or agricultural issues.
UKIP WILL support: • Agriculture through a modified Single Farm Payment scheme: “Our
comprehensive ‘all-in’ policy will include: NO modulation or cross-compliance. NO interference in cropping. NO set-aside (EFA).”
To qualify:• Land MUST be farmed to ELS standard. Grassland farms automatically
qualify. • Applicants must be ‘risk takers’ - no ‘slipper farmers’. Negative list to
include airports, golf courses, race tracks, urban parks.• £80 per acre on lowland, pro-rata decrease on marginal and hill land,
capped at £120,000
Rural EconomyWhat UKIP have to say
UKIP WILL get rid of:• unnecessary regulations that make farmers’ lives more difficult • NO compulsory EID (individual Electronic ID for sheep) • NO requirement for re-registration of pesticides; ‘Asulam’ and other
minority pesticides could be available for use • NO blanket ban on burial of fallen stock (sites to be approved) • White asbestos cement (e.g. building cladding) no longer classed as
hazardous. Blue and brown asbestos remain under strict control. • NVZs: impartial scientific appraisal should result in some specific
relaxations. • Intensive livestock units removed from IPPC regulations
What do they have to say? Quite a lot – • Controversial policy on land which they say is held in trust by human
society on behalf of other species and future generations• Land should not be treated as a capital investment• Clear framework for land use planning to be established which puts
a high priority on the natural environment and land should only be used in ways which maintain and sustain the environment
• A system of Land Value Taxation to be introduced so that unearned benefits from land be shared by the community.
• Land Value Taxation to be paid annually on the value of land and not the building or developments on it.
Green Party Rural Polices
Long Term Aim• To create self-reliant communities that retain the fruits of local
investment and activity and preserve the conditions where people can live in ways which care for habitats and wildlife and allow them to fulfil spiritual, emotional, social, intellectual and physical needs.
Short Term Aims• Revitalise the economy and life of rural communities;• Legislate to reform land tenure and access to land;• Legislate to stop further destruction of wildlife habitats, the soil, the
landscape, ancient monuments and our countryside heritage; • Enact policies that will make the whole countryside more hospitable
to wildlife, entailing increased protection for wildlife and habitats and delivery of meaningful landscape-scale conservation and restoration;
• Increase the area and quality of woods, orchards, agroforestry, hedges and other tree cover;
• Ensure food security, integrating human health and wellbeing, environmental protection, animal welfare and decent livelihoods for farmers, farm workers and growers;
• Reduce greenhouse gas emissions and develop appropriate renewable energy especially at local and community level.
Commercial Property What the parties say
• The parties have very little to say about commercial property.
• However, most do mention business rates:
The Conservatives• will extend small business relief until April 2016• inflation linked increases to business rates will be capped at 2% until
April• announced a comprehensive review of business rates in the budget
The Liberal Democrats
• Increasing help for the High Street: increasing the business rates discount for smaller retail premises with a rateable value of £50,000 of below to £1,500 to 31 March 2016
• Doubling small business rate relief for a further year to 31 March 2016 to provide support for 575,000 of the smallest businesses, and ensuring 385,000 small businesses pay no rates at all.
• Capping the rise in the business rates multiplier at 2 per cent to benefit all businesses
• Extending transitional rate relief to support 16,000 small business facing significant bill increases due to the ending of transitional rate relief.
Labour • promises to cut business rates in 2015 and then freeze them in 2016
for over 1.5 million business properties.
UKIP • UKIP will set up a Treasury Commission to design a turnover tax to
ensure big businesses pay a minimum floor rate of tax as a proportion of their UK turnover.
• They are silent on business rates but some of their candidates are calling for the abolition of business rates.
Green Party • The Greens would abolish business rates and replace them with
Land Valuation Tax.
Business: The economy, employment, health and Europe
David Engwell
The Economy
Probably the issue on which the current government would like to
fight the election
The Conservatives
Deficit to be eradicated by 2018
• Spending cuts not tax rises
• Cut in Corporation Tax
Labour
Labour will eradicate the deficit and get to surplus “as soon as possible”• Changes to income tax bands• Increase in Corporation Tax• 5% pay cut for all government ministers
Lib DemsThe Lib Dems will introduce “strict new fiscal rules” so that the deficit has gone by April 2018
• Many of their tax changes are to personal taxes
UKIPUKIP plans a turnover tax
Jobs
The ConservativesThe Conservatives will create 3m apprenticeships, paid for by benefit cuts
Labour
Labour propose a number of measures:• Guaranteed job for under 25s unemployed for
a year• Ban zero hours contracts• Increase the minimum wage to £8/hr• Companies to publish gender pay gap• 1m new high tech jobs by 2025
Lib DemsThe Lib Dems would:
• increase the national minimum wage for apprentices from £2.73/hr to £3.79/hr
• Create 1m new jobs
The SNPThe SNP propose gender quotas on all public boards.
Health
In the context of a growing and ageing population, this is possibly the most important issue of the election.
Health
All of the main parties propose to increase spending on the NHS over the next parliament:• Conservatives “in real terms”• Labour - £2.5bn per year• Lib Dems - £8bn per year by 2020
General Practice – The Conservatives
• The Conservatives pledge that 5,000 more GPs will be trained by 2020
• All patients to have access to a GP from 8am-8pm 7 days/week by 2020
Labour• Labour will train 8,000 more GPs, 5,000
care workers and 3,000 midwives
• Patients will be entitled to a GP appointment within 48 hours of requesting one
Lib Dems
The Lib Dems will promote integrated care by pooling health and social care budgets
Europe
The Conservatives
Conservatives would negotiate some return of power from Brussels and then hold a referendum on EU membership by 2017
Labour
Labour suggests reform of the EU to prevent the UK from “sleepwalking” towards exit
Lib Dems The Lib Dems would push for more efficiency in the EU
