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Predicting current and future tree diversity in the Pacific
Northwest
Predicting current and future tree diversity in the Pacific
Northwest
I R S S
Richard Waring1
& Nicholas Coops2
1 Oregon State University 2 University of British Columbia
Richard Waring1
& Nicholas Coops2
1 Oregon State University 2 University of British Columbia
Process-based Model of GPP & NPP
Environmental Modifiers
VPD
Soil Water
Tmin
Frost
Quantum / Radiation Use Efficiency
x
PAR
x PAR
Rainfall
GPP & NPP
Additional 3-PGS Modifiers
Environmental constraints on photosynthesis for
Douglas-fir in the Pacific NW, U.S.A.
soil water
evaporative demand suboptimal
temperature
Frost limitations
Current environmental constraints on photosynthesis for Douglas-fir in British Columbia, Canada
Soil drought Evaporative demand (D)
Suboptimal temperature
Frost frequency
Species differences in sensitivity to environment
soil drought evaporative demand
Suboptimal temperature frost sensitivity
Different adaptations sort environmental distributions of NW tree species
Common name scientific name environmental adaptations
Sitka spruce Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr most sensitive to humidity deficits & temperature extremes
ponderosa pine Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Loud. more adapted to drought, frost, and humidity deficits than Douglas-fir
western juniper Juniperus occidentalis Hook. most adapted to drought and high VPD
lodgepole pine Pinus cortorta Dougl. ex Loud. most tolerance of frost
Douglas -fir Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco
adapted to intermediate environmental conditions
western hemlock Tsuga heterorphylla (Raf.) Sarg. more sensitive to humidity deficits and to drought than Douglas-fir
Defining different species environmental
tolerances in reference to Douglas-fir
Sitka sprucelodgepole pine
Ponderosa pine
Frosttolerant
Droughttolerant
Drought adverse
3737 USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory & Analysis Plots
Current range predictions (left) vs. FIA plots data(right)
of western hemlock(upper) and Sitka spruce (lower)
Current Range Predictions (left) and FIA plot locations (right) for ponderosa pine (upper) and
lodgepole pine (lower)
Reported range of lodgepole pine in B.C.
Little’s range map
Present on field plots
Model predicts progressive reduction in range of lodgepole pine with environment
favoring other species in BC
2020 2050 2080
Summary
• Process-based models weight environment limitations as they affect photosynthesis and growth
• Approach simplified by relating to most widely distributed species
• Decision trees analysis automatically defines environmental thresholds for different species
• Predictions of present range good, and potential to predict future ranges, taking into account competition with other species.