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PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM
DYNAMICS MODELLING
M. Pons, C. Pérez, J.J. de Felipe, E. Jover
OUTLINEPREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
OUTLINE
1. INTRODUCTION
- Modelling MSW generation- State of Art- Study case context: Andorra
2. METHODOLOGY
3. RESULTS
Scenarios- Scenarios
4 CONCLUSIONS4. CONCLUSIONS
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
1 MODELLING MSW GENERATION
Why? - Utility
1. MODELLING MSW GENERATION
• Waste management planning
• To achieve accurate and reliable waste information
-Municipal waste collection system
-Land demand for landfilling waste
Incinerators capacity evaluation- Incinerators capacity evaluation
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
1 MODELLING MSW GENERATION1. MODELLING MSW GENERATION
Traditional statistical forecasting methods
• Time analysis correlation
• Regression analysis
High quantity and quality data required
1
1. H. A. Abu Qdais, M. F. Hamoda, J. Newham. "Analysis of Residential Solid Waste at Generation Sites". Waste Management & Research. Vol. 15. pp. 395-405, (1997).
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
1 MODELLING MSW GENERATION
System Dynamics Modelling
1. MODELLING MSW GENERATION
Li it d d t
• Fuzzy, not-well defined environmentsQuality of• Limited data
• Large-scale complex systems
Quality of service
• Causal loops Tourist Offer
Infrastructures
Visitors Profits Investments
Offer
Visitors
Overnight
Profits Investments
Overnightstays
1 MODELLING MSW GENERATION
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
SD Modelling examples
1. MODELLING MSW GENERATION
g p
MSW generation in San Antonio 1
Waste generation, collectioncapacity and electricity in Dhaka 2
Based on economic and demographic information
1.Dyson, B., Chang, N.-B., “Forecasting municipal solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban region with system dynamics modeling.” Waste Management 25 (7), 669-679, (2005).2. Sufian, M.A., Bala B.K., “Modeling of urban solid waste management system: The case of Dhaka city.” Waste Management, 27(7), 858-868, (2007).
1. CASE STUDY CONTEXT - ANDORRA
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
I d d t P i i litIndependent Principality
Population: 84 484 inhabitants
Area: 468 km2
Population: 84.484 inhabitants
Pyrenees
Tourism main economic activityy
10.193.749 visitors in 2008
Case Study context - Andorra1. CASE STUDY CONTEXT - ANDORRA
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
300.000
Tourists 2008
200 000
250.000
150.000
200.000
TOURISTS
50.000
100.000
T
0
Data source: Tourism Department of Andorran Government
Case Study context - Andorra1. CASE STUDY CONTEXT - ANDORRA
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
1,35
1,40
MSW kg/person/day
1,25
1,30
1,35
1,15
1,20
kg
1,00
1,05
1,10
0,90
0,95
Data source: Environmental Department of Andorran Government
1. MSW GENERATION ON TOURISTIC AREAS
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
Balearic Islands:
1. MSW GENERATION ON TOURISTIC AREAS
MSW Generation /person /day
1,5 kgWinter
Summer 2,5 kg
1. MSW GENERATION ON TOURISTIC AREAS
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
TORREVIEJA URBANWASTE 2001 1
1. MSW GENERATION ON TOURISTIC AREAS
7
7,5
8
TORREVIEJA URBAN WASTE 2001 1
5
5,5
6
6,5
10 6kg
3
3,5
4
4,5
2,5
High impact of visitors flows on waste generation
Lack of models integrating visitors influence
g p g
1. J.F. Vera Rebollo and J.A. Ivars Baidal, “Measuring Sustainability in a Mass Tourist Destination: Pressures, Perceptions and Policy Responses in Torrevieja, Spain.” Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 11, 181-203, (2003).
2. METHODOLOGY
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
Model tackling with:
D t it- Data scarcity
- Importance of visitors flows
SD based on:
- Economic
- Visitors flows
- Demographic
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
2. METHODOLOGY: DYNAMICS SYSTEMS MODEL
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
2. METHODOLOGY: POPULATION
POPULATIONPOPULATION
TOTAL MSW GENERATION
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
2. METHODOLOGY: GDP
RESIDENT ECONOMICPOPULATION ECONOMIC
TOTAL MSW GENERATION
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
2. METHODOLOGY: TOURISTS
TOURISTS
RESIDENT ECONOMICVISITORSRESIDENT POPULATION ECONOMICVISITORS
TOTAL MSW GENERATION
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
2. METHODOLOGY: TOURISTS
TOURISTS ONE-DAY VISITORS
RESIDENT ECONOMICVISITORSRESIDENT POPULATION ECONOMICVISITORS
TOTAL MSW GENERATION
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
2. METHODOLOGY: POPULATION
POPULATIONPOPULATION
TOTAL MSW GENERATION
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
2. METHODOLOGY: DYNAMICS SYSTEMS MODEL
3. RESULTS: SCENARIOS
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
AS USUAL SCENARIOAS USUAL SCENARIO
HYPOTHESISHYPOTHESIS:2250 02300,02350,02400,0
GDP
Annual variation rate of variables
1950 02000,02050,02100,02150,02200,02250,0
Dolars
+ 1 %
Annual variation rate of variables
POPULATION 1900,01950,0
-1,2% +1 5% +3%GDP
1,2% +1,5% 3%
- 1,7 %TOURISTS
ONE DAY VISITORS
- 1,3 %
4. CONCLUSIONS
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
SD M d l i t ti d hi d i• SD Model integrating demographic and economicparameters as well as tourist flows
• Correlation between visitor flows and MSW generation
FURTHER WORK
• Compulsory when studying tourist destinations
FURTHER WORK• To validate the model
• To collaborate with local administrations
• To model the recovering energy capacity
• To collaborate with local administrations
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING
f th i ll b tifor their collaboration
f f ll hifor a fellowship
and ALL OF YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!!and ALL OF YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!!