Analyzing Geospatial Trends in Afghan Terrorist Attacks

By: Matthew GulinoFor: Penn State, GEOG 594A

Date: May, 2015

Analyzing Geospatial Trends in Afghan Terrorist Attacks» The question that I will endeavor to answer is “where are

terrorist attacks likely to occur in Afghanistan?” » After reviewing the geospatial precision of terrorist attack data

available, this translates into “what districts in Afghanistan are likely to have terrorist attacks?”

» Wikipedia defines terrorism as “violent acts (or threat of violent acts) intended to create fear (terror), perpetrated for a religious, political, or ideological goal, and which deliberately target or disregard the safety of non-combatants (e.g., neutral military personnel or civilians).”

» The key factor is that terrorism typically targets non-combatants. Any predictive analysis of terrorist attacks should disregard attacks against opposing military/police units (in this case the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (GIROA)) as predictors of future locations of attacks.

Geospatial Aspects of the Study» I will analyze past terrorist attack locations in

Afghanistan to determine what geospatial trends I can detect.

» The locations of civilian populations will not likely change in the near future and certain civilian population centers will be more likely than others to be the focus of terrorist attacks.

Assumptions» Assumption 1: The locations of future terrorist

attacks are predictable.» Assumption 2: Terrorist attack locations can be

predicted despite the lack of knowledge of military/police force activities (this data is highly sensitive in nature).

» Assumption 3: Terrorist attacks will continue in Afghanistan despite the fact that ISAF has withdrawn from the battlefield.

ProcessThe analytic process is described as “A Notional Model of Analyst Sensemaking,” with the cognitive task analysis indicating that the bottom-up and top-down processes shown in each loop are “…invoked in an opportunistic mix.” The graphic below illustrates this process:

Hypothesis» My hypothesis is that locations of past terrorist

can be used as a guide to determine geospatial trends of terrorist attacks.

» Limitations: Much of the data only specifies which district an attack occurred in, so any geospatial prediction made using this data can only be specific to the district level.

Afghan Terrorist Attacks 2002 to 2013You can see thatit is impossibleto analyze thisdata by simplyplacing dots ona map.

Afghan Terrorist Attacks 2002 to 2013It is much more effective tocreate a chloroplethmap in which the number ofterrorist attacksare reflected inthe color of each district.This map showsthat threedistricts by far had the most terrorist attacksbetween 2002and 2013.- Kabul- Khost- Kandahar

Afghan Terrorist Attacks Outside of Top Three Districts» The previous slide is a good decision aid for the

Afghan government in deciding the top three districts to protect from terrorist attacks (Kabul, Khost, and Kandahar). However, it does not provide good guidance on what other areas that need additional protection.

» One way to help determine what other areas to protect is to display the same attack data but to divide the number of attacks by the number of people in the districts. ˃ This will help to display where people are more likely

to be attacked by terrorists.

Terrorist Attacks Per Capita 2002 to 2013This map showsthat althoughthere are many more total terrorist attacksin the AfghanCapital Kabuldistrict, you are much more likely to be attacked by a terrorist if you are a civilian living in Wazakhanand QalatDistricts.

Evaluating Geospatial Methods of Detecting Terrorist Attack Trends» I wanted to analyze the most recent data to

determine terrorist attack trends, so I used the data for 2013.

» I evaluated two different methods for displaying the trends of terrorist attack locations.˃ Kernel Density Analysis found in ArcGIS 10˃ Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Crime (STAC) found in the

Crime Stat IV software

Kernel Density of Terror Attacks in 2013This map is the result of a kerneldensity analysisof terrorist attacksin 2013. It showsthat portions ofHilmand andmost of Nangarharprovinces havethe highestdensity of terrorist attacks.The weakness ofusing thisapproach appearsto be its lack ofprecision. It doesnot appear to beeffective innarrowing its scope to districtlevel analysis atthis scale.

STAC Hotspots of Terror Attacks in 2013The STAC hotspotsidentified in thismap are much more precise thanthe hotspotsidentified in the kernel densityanalysis. The STAC routine onlyidentifies thestatistically significanthotspots. Itappears to be amuch more precise method ofidentifying geospatial trendsin terroristattacks.

Comparing STAC and Kernel DensityInterestingly, the center of the major kernel density hotspots correspond with the STAC hotspots.

The STAC analysis appears to have an advantage because it can identify districts of concern rather than portions of provinces.

If you distil the kernel density hotspots so that only the purple and blue are visible, you lose visibility of other less prominent hotspots (in red, orange, and yellow). The STAC analysis does not have this drawback.

Geospatial Characteristics of Afghan DistrictsThis map displayssome of the characteristics ofAfghan districtsthat may affectwhere terrorist attacks occur. Ironically, only inKashrod districtare you likely to beattacked by a terrorist in a Taliban controlleddistrict. In contrast,living in a districtwith high poppy growth appearsto increase yourchances of beingattacked by aterrorist.

Articles, book chapters, or general references» “U.S. commander predicts more Afghan suicide attacks,”

http://archive.militarytimes.com/article/20140123/NEWS08/301230009/U-S-commander-predicts-more-Afghan-suicide-attacks

» “RC-East commander predicts hike in insurgent attacks in Afghanistan,” http://www.stripes.com/news/rc-east-commander-predicts-hike-in-insurgent-attacks-in-afghanistan-1.235336

» “Why The Predictions Of Catastrophic Terror Attacks At The Sochi Olympics Didn’t Come True,” http://thinkprogress.org/world/2014/02/24/3322141/sochi-terror-attacks-happen/

» “Researchers try to develop a methodology for predicting terrorist acts,” http://www.homelandsecuritynewswire.com/dr20150122-researchers-try-to-develop-a-methodology-for-predicting-terrorist-acts

» “Afghanistan: At Least 21,000 Civilians Killed,” http://costsofwar.org/article/afghan-civilians

Articles or book chapters about similar studies» “Attempts to Predict Terrorist Attacks Hit Limits,”

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/attempts-to-predict-terrorist-attacks-hit-limits1/

» “Afghan War Games: Computer Scientists Accurately Predict Attacks,” http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2012/07/afghan-war-games-researchers-predict-conflicts

» “Math Can Predict Insurgent Attacks, Physicist Says,” http://www.npr.org/2011/07/31/138639711/math-can-predict-insurgent-attacks-physicist-says

» “A Computer Program That Predicts Terrorist Attacks,” http://www.fastcoexist.com/1680540/a-computer-program-that-predicts-terrorist-attacks

» “Terrorism Expert Predicts a Record 15,000 Terror Attacks Around the Globe in 2014,” http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/penny-starr/terrorism-expert-predicts-record-15000-terror-attacks-around-globe-2014

Data sets and sources» “ESOC Empirical Studies of Conflict,”

https://esoc.princeton.edu/file-type/gis-data» “GISTPortal,” https://gistdata.itos.uga.edu/user» “USGS PROJECTS IN AFGHANISTAN,”

http://afghanistan.cr.usgs.gov/geospatial-reference-datasets» “AIMS: Afghanistan Information Management Services,”

http://www.aims.org.af/ssroots.aspx?seckeyt=295» “GTD: Global Terrorism Database,” http://www.start.umd.edu/gtd

/ National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). (2013). Global Terrorism Database [Data file]. Retrieved from http://www.start.umd.edu/gtd

» “Central Statistics Organization, Islamic Republic of Afghanistan,” http://cso.gov.af/en

» “The Asia Foundation, Visualizing Afghanistan: A Survey of the Afghan People 2012’” http://afghansurvey.asiafoundation.org/