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Prediction solutions made to measure based on the

flexible Anemos forecasting platform

H-P (Igor) Waldl, Overspeed, Germany Georges Kariniotakis, MINES ParisTech, France

Overspeed GmbH & Co. KG, Germany for the Anemos team

www.windpowerpredictions.com

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What is Anemos?

• Leading edge research and development

• Prediction models and modules

• High-availability IT platform

• Prediction system

• Partnership (over 70 GW worldwide)

• Commercial activities world-wide

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What is Anemos?

The Anemos prediction system

AWEFS/Australia 5 min predictions

Extreme events and ramps

Summary

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Anemos prediction system

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Prediction models ...

Models from current research

+1h +6h +12h +18h +24h +30h +36h …. +48h

Pro

du

cti

on

[M

W]

0

DAY +1 DAY +2 t0

2

3

4

5

1

6

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... and modules

... implemented as software modules for the Anemos

prediction system

Pred I

upscaling

eval

uncert.

PRI

5-min

report

ramps

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... running on a prediction platform

Standardized solution of data handling, logging, user interfaces,...

Time series

I/O

Filte

rs

Static data

Parameters

Pred I eval upscaling

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AWEFS/Australia

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AWEFS/Australia

• Very short-term predictions: 5 minutes

• Fully integrated into Australian market system

• Ramp predictions and warnings

• 100 % availability

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Australian Wind Energy Forecasting system

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Australian Wind Energy Forecasting System

• Fully integrated in market system

• Fully automated market, 5-min bids

• „Market-system-proof“

• High-availability design

• 24/7 operation

• 100% availability (5 years)

• Support Australian researchers Standardisation

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Prediction horizons and data sources

2 h to 10

days WPP models WPP models WPP models WPP models conti-

nuity

module

Combi-

nation

post-

proc

module

uncer-

tainty

module

aggre-

gation

module

5 min to

2 h

5 min model OSFive EMS/

MMS

exporter

uncer-

tainty

module 5 min fallback OSFive

aggre-

gation

module

aggre-

gation

module

> 1 year long term

model

post-

proc

module

conti-

nuity

module

EMS/

MMS

exporter

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Now: ASEFS:Solar predictions at Australia

• EL S 6

© ENFOR

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Extreme event predictions

PRI

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Ramp predictions: Anemos.rulez

• Specialised prediction model

• Highly configurable

• Detection method and

parameter

• Warnings as RSS feed

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Shut-down events and wind speed

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SONI WPPT cut-off example, EnFor

Cut-off probability

measurements

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Case PPC: Economic benefit

The CC started after a necessary repair, at 17:11. At that time the Gas

turbine 11 was in operation and the load demand has started to increase.

For this reason, and in absence of the information that wind generation was

going to increase substantially, the Gas turbine 11 remained in operation. If

this information was available, Gas turbine 11 could stop, economic

benefit: 12’210 EUR only for this event. (Source: Prin. Nikos

Chatziargiriou )

Gas Turbine 11 Combine Cycle Total Min spinning

reserve

as system operated 143.71 109.42 253.13 9.38%

with the information

of the wind increase 0 253.13 253.13 16.36%

as system operated 42,972 44,418 87,390

with the information

of the wind increase 75,180 75,180

12,210

Production

(MWh)

Cost of

operation (€)

Economic benefit (€)

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Anemos: from research to operations

PRI

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Anemos system: From research to operations

• Standardized platform

• High IT level

• Ideal for on-site integration and on-site operation

• Short time to market for new developments and R&D

by standardization

PRI