Presenta(on to Yemen Civil Society Event London26Jan2017

FoodSecurityandFamineinYemenSafePassageduringaCivilWar

JamesFirebrace

YemenSafePassageGroupjf@firebrace.com

WiththankstothemanymembersoftheYSPnetworkwhocontributeddataandinsights

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The drivers of food insecurity

Foodsecurityathouseholdlevelisfundamentallydependentonpurchasingability*,andhenceontwofactors:1.  Abilitytopayforfood,soonfamilyincome,livelihoodsandsupportnetworks2.  Availabilityandpricesoffoodstuffs,soabilityoffoodproductstofreelyreachmarketsSeveredeclinesinboththeseareashavebeencentraldriversofYemen’sslowslidetowardsfaminesincetheconflictbeganinearly2015Thisthree-yeardeclinestartsfromaverylowbase-pre-crisisYemenalreadyhadlargenumbersofvulnerablepeople.

*ThisexcludesfoodgrownforhomeconsumpUonandfoodaiddistributedfreetothemostvulnerable

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Household incomes –ability to pay for food, fuel and medicines

(1) Theconflicthasledtofarreachingdamagetoalleconomicsectorsandseveredeclineinhouseholdincomes

•  Over50%dropinaverageincomein4majorgovernorates*,worstdeclinesinconflictregionsofSa’adaandTaiz,leastinAdenandHodeidah

Agriculture•  SomehalfYemen’spopulaUonisdependentonagriculture•  Someprovincesheavilyaffectedbyinsecurityduetotheconflict/lackoflabourduetodisplacement(3mIDPs),andminingoffarmland•  Theirrigatedsectorhasbeenhardhitbyfuelscarcity(andhigherprices)

Industry•  AkeyemployerinsomelocaUons•  InTaiz,Yemen’sindustrialcentre,onlyfactoriesinHobanoperaUng,andat40%capacity•  OverhalfTaizpopulaUonaffected;temporarylocalworkersaccommodaUonoutsideconflictareasallowssomefactoriestokeepoperaUng•  ManykeyoperaUonstargetedbyairstrikes(egcranesatHodeidahport,Amrancementfactory,MokhadesalinaUonplant)

ConstrucUon•  High%ofruralhouseholdsdependentonfamilymembersworkingintowns,mainlycasualdaylabourinconstrucUon•  Suchjobshavelargelydriedup

Fisheries•  EsUmated400,000directlydependentonarUsanalfisheries,concentratedinthepoorestcoastalregions.•  Employmenthalvedduetoadcks,highfuelprices,sporadicavailabilityoffuelandparts,reducedaccesstocoldstorage

*FEWSNETAug2016RapidAssessment,HouseholdIncomesAug2016vs20143

Household incomes –ability to pay for food, fuel and medicines (2)

CivilServants•  Some1.2mYemenisonthepayroll,effecUvelysupporUngover7m(quarterofpopulaUon)•  SalariesfirstreducedtobasiclevelandthencutaltogethersinceAugust2016duetolackoffundsinYemen

CentralBank,furthercomplicatedbyshiiofYCBtoAden•  SUckingpointofpayingMinistryofDefencesalaries

SocialSecurity•  Welfarepaymentsto1.5mhouseholdssuspendedsinceMar2015

Pensions

•  Statepensionpaymentshavealsobeenstopped

SocialSafetyNets

•  Many,especiallyIDPs,reliantonsupportfromfamilyandtribe•  ThisexplainsmuchofYemen’sresilienceduringthewar•  Butthissafetynetisreachingitslimitsastheconflictextendstowardsitsthirdyear

Women-headedhouseholds(withlessearningcapacity)•  Increasingnumbers(especiallyIDPs)asmenrecruitedtofight,areinjuredorkilled

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Availability of food in the market Shipping and road access issues

•  Yemenheavilydependentonoutsideimportsofkeycereals•  90%forwheat,100%forrice•  LargequanUUesneeded–250,000mtofwheatpermonth•  Transportedby5,000trucks/monmainroads(50mttrucks)andupto25,000/monmoreminorroads(10mt

trucks)–amajorlogisUcaloperaUon•  MaintainingthiscommercialflowoffoodtomarketsisthereforecriUcal,dwarfinghumanitarianaidinkind•  Aid,targetedatthemostvulnerable,iscriUcalinsupporUngthefoodsecurityofthepoorest•  Manyaidprogrammesinvolvecashhandoutsorvouchers,sodependentoncommercialimports

•  FourmajortradingcompaniescriUcalfordeliveringthelargequanUUesneeded•  Thesecompanies,Fahem,HayelSayeed,AudiandHabari,havefaciliUes(includingflourmills)inGulfofAden

(Aden)andRedSea(HodeidahandSalif)•  Muchhasbeendamagedinthewar,anddelaysatportaresUllfarfromacceptable

•  Thereislikelytobeacertainamountofcross-bordertrucking/smuggling•  DifficulttoquanUfy,butthiscannotdeliverthevolumesneeded•  NeverthelesshelpingtoalleviateanincreasinglyalarmingsituaUon

•  Roadaccessmuchreduced–bridgesandroadsdestroyed,longdetours,mulUplecheckpoints•  Addsgreatlytocostofproductsandaffordability•  AdentoSana’awas8hours,now19hours•  Hodeidah/Salifshouldbeshortestroutetonorthernpopulatedareas

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Increased prices of food, fuel and water Pricesofcerealshaveincreased

•  Wheatpricesareupsome25%sincepre-crisisdespitelowinternaUonalprices.•  Mainpriceincreaseduringtheearlypartoftheconflict•  Subsequentstabilisinglikelyduetoheavilyreduceddemand,becauseofreducedhouseholdincomes•  Thisisobservedinotherpre-faminesituaUons–careneededinusingfoodpricesasleadindicatorsforfoodinsecurity

Fuelpricesarealsoup•  Increaseof25%butpriceincreasesinsomeareasconsiderablyhigher.Subsidiesremovedin2015,•  PeriodsofmajordisrupUonwhenfuelwasunavailableorrequiredextensivequeuing•  Highfuelpricesinturnimpactedthepriceofflour,asfuelneededformilling

Mostwaterprovision(andallurbanwater)involvespumping•  AffecUngprice-fuelisnecessaryforpumping•  Availabilitymuchreduced-wateruUlityinTaizenUrelyoutofacUon,Sana’awaterraUonedto100litresper2-3days•  Increasingproblemsofdrinkingwaterquality-relatedtoinfantmalnutriUonandcholeraoutbreaks

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Safe passage of food and other key supplies EarlierCoaliUonblockadeofportshasnowbeenpartlyliied

•  AsuccessforUNVIM(UNverificaUonrearmsshipments)•  ButmajordelayssUllexperiencedatallkeystepsofthechain•  Obtainingpermits,queuing,docking,unloadingatport,androadtransporttomarketareallproblemaUc

•  ObtaininghardcurrencyconversiontoallowconUnuedimportaUonofstaplegrainshasbecomecriUcal,dueto:•  Declineinforeignreserves,from$4.7b2014to<$1bSept2016•  YemenCentralBank,nowinAden,sUllnotfuncUoningeffecUvely•  Guarantees/ledersofcreditnolongeravailabletoimporters•  Currentlyunclearhowlongthiswilltaketoresolve•  Three-monthdelayinfoodorderingtodeliverycycle

•  Extentoffoodreservesin-countryislimitedanddisputed•  FEWSNETesUmatedonly3monthsfoodreservesin-countryinSept2016andimportswelldownsincethen

•  GoYsourcesclaimed5monthsreservesinDec20167

Transpor(ng food to market is highly problema(c

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Delivery of food and other cri(cal supplies Need to reach the densely populated areas

•  CriUcallythepopulatedhighlandsandwestofthecountry(largelysUllunderHouthi/Salehcontrol)areeasiestsuppliedfromHodeidahorSalifontheRedSea

•  Givenconcernsthatfooddeliveriesmayagainbeusedaswarleverage,unreasonablerestricUonsonimportsthroughHodeidah/Salifshouldactasleadingindicatorforheightenedfoodinsecurityahead

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Yemen food security looking ahead

FEWSNETprojectHumanitarianEmergencycondiUons(IPC4),extendingfromonetoeightgovernoratesovernextfourmonths•  IPC4definedas‘largefoodconsump0ongaps,

resul0nginveryhighacutemalnutri0onandexcessmortality’

•  Assessmentismade‘evenwithanyhumanitarianassistance’

•  Buthowmuchhumanitarianassistanceisfactoredin?•  FromEmergency(IPC4)toFamine(IPC5)isanissueof

scale:from>1to>2deathsper10,000perday;from>15%to>30%acutemalnutriUon

•  AssessmentcriUcallydependentonqualityofdataincountrywhereaccessishighlylimited.Aretherepocketsoffaminealready?

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Long term impacts of the war Impactontherecovery/reconstrucUonphase

•  Thelongerthewargoeson,themorethedestrucUon,andthehigherthecostofreconstrucUon•  Publicinfrastructure(bridges,ports,hospitals,uUliUes,de-miningoffields)willneedpublicinvestment•  Privateinfrastructure(factoriesetc)willneedprivateinvestment,butinwhatclimate

HumanitarianemergencycurrentlyunfoldingwillseverelyimpactthenextgeneraUon•  Malnourishmentofchildren(alreadyesUmatedat1.3million)meansstunUng/impairedmentalabiliUes•  Over3millionchildrenareoutofschooland1,600schoolsclosed•  AwholegeneraUonwithlifeopportuniUescurtailed•  Women's’educaUonisakeyindicatorfordampeningpopulaUongrowthandfamilysize,reversingsuccessesachievedtodate

BrutalisaUonofthepopulaUonbywarandHR/IHLabuses

•  LeadingtomajorchangesinYemen’ssocialfabricandthespiritofcompromiseandtolerance•  LackofrespectforYemen’srichculture

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YSPG Recommenda(ons (A) To consider as poten(al outputs for this Conference

A.Opera)ons1.  UrgentlyaddressthecriUcalsituaUonofcommercialimports(>95%offoodneeds)

•  RefinancingtheYemenCentralBankneedstobetheimmediateandurgentfocusofinternaUonaladenUon

•  AlternaUvelycreateatemporaryalternaUvetoensureimportscanresumeimmediately,potenUallylinkedtothereconstrucUon($needednow,YRneededlater)

•  Everyeffortmustbemadetoshortenthe‘normal’3-monthdelaysfromordertodelivery,especiallydelaysatport

2.  Hugelyrampupcash,voucherandmedicalaidtomostvulnerable•  Largelydependentonsolvingtheimportscrisis

3.  AddressandreversethedegradaUonofhouseholdincomes,eveninthemidstofwar•  Akeyissueisensuringaregularsupplyoffuel(onwhichagricultureandfisheriesaredependent)•  ResumpUonofpaymentofcivilservantsalaries,pensionsandwelfarepayments

4.  Visibility:homeinon(andconUnuallyupdate)theearlywarningindicatorsandplannowhowtoreachthemostvulnerableareas•  Needtobecleareraboutwheredataispoor(createaseparate‘dataconfidence’map)andaddressthedatagaps

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YSPG Recommenda(ons (B) - to consider as poten(al outputs for this conference B.Poli)cal1.  Ceasefire+humanitarianpause,leadingtoalongtermnegoUatedpeace

sedlement•  Thisisonlysustainablewayforward,butnowconsiderableurgencytoavoid:•  CollapseofYemen’seconomyandheightenedemergencyonfoodsecurity•  FurtherdisintegraUonofYemen’ssocialfabric,thehardeningofdivisions,andabreedinggroundforextremism

2.  Failingthis,anagreementthatunrestrictedaccessofcriUcalsuppliesismaintainedthroughallmajorseaportsandcriUcalroadarteries•  PotenUalforsuchnegoUaUonstoactasasteptowardsamorefinalsedlement•  RepairstodamagedessenUalinfrastructure(portcranes,criUcalroadsandbridges)•  Cryingfoul:developredlightindicatorstoquicklyhighlightabusebyeithersideandraisethepoliUcalcost;needtodisentanglecasualtyvstargetofwar

•  UNResoluUon+IHLasthelongtermsancUons•  Rule53StarvaUonasaWeaponofWar•  Rule54AdacksagainstObjectsIndispensabletotheSurvivaloftheCivilianPopulaUon•  Rule55AccessforHumanitarianRelieftoCiviliansinNeed

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