Presentation by Alan Johnson to

AUCKLAND UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGYManukau Research Symposium

HOUSING RESEARCH FOR SOUTH AUCKLAND

To monitor changing housing conditions as part of a broader assessment of social well-being

To assess the effectiveness of existing public programmes in meeting housing needs – especially for the most vulnerable

To identify public policy and programme gaps

Possible research objectives

There is not one housing market but a series of interconnected sub-markets which are defined by tenure, class and location

Many housing statistics are reported in aggregate or in ways which advantage or interest those with power

Housing statistics which may be most useful for gaining a clear understanding of the housing position of the most vulnerable are seldom available

This makes informed and balanced policy debate difficult

Some complications

POPULATION ESTIMATES Quarterly Annually Five yearly

Housing data matrix

NATIONALLY REGIONALLY LOCALLY

HOUSING DEMAND

DATA AVAILABLE

NEW CONSTRUCTION Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly

ABILITY TO PAY Bi-annually (HES) Bi-annually (HES) Census ?

HOUSING STOCK Quarterly Five yearly Five yearly

HOUSEHOLD FORMATION Quarterly Annually Five yearly

HOUSING SUPPLY

HOUSING DEMAND

HNZC WAITING LISTS Monthly Monthly Monthly

SALES TURNOVER Monthly Monthly Monthly

MARKET AGGREGATES

SALE PRICES Monthly Monthly Monthly

RENTS Monthly Monthly Monthly

OCCUPANCY RATES Census? Census ? Census?

AFFORDABILITY Quarterly Quarterly None

FITNESS None None None

Census data is probably not reliable especially in terms of a consistent definition of households and reports of household incomes and occupancy levels.

This makes measurement of housing affordability and household overcrowding difficult or at best unreliable and this is a five yearly snapshot on any account

HNZC data is unreliable because there is some question around whether its needs assessment process is an assessment or rationing tool

Data limitations

Example of local housing research

MANGERE HOUSING SURVEYA SNAPSHOT OF OVERCROWDING IN SOUTH AUCKLAND

Ex Example of local housing research

TABLE 1: Summary of outputs from the Mangere housing survey

Dwellings in survey area 1062 dwellings

Households contacted in survey 953 households

Vacant properties 6 dwellings

Declined to participate 77 households

Households participating 876 households

Response rate 92% of households contacted

Survey coverage 82% of dwellings in survey area

Contact rate 90% of dwellings in survey area

Ex Findings

No significant increase in levels of overcrowding

Significant demographic change - older Pakeha households replaced by much younger Pasifika ones - A local baby boom 13.5% of surveyed population were under 5 years old Identified local housing market dynamics - shift in tenure from owner-occupation to private rental - overcrowding highest in owner-occupied houses - fewer houses with 1 or 2 people in = better stock utilisation perhaps

HOUSING DEMAND AND NEW DWELLING CONSENTS - AUCKLAND

Where are people living then?

POSSIBLE MINIMUM LEVEL OF BUILDING REQUIRED TO MAINTAIN HOUSING AVAILABILITY

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

December years

Nu

mb

er

of

dw

elli

ng

s

Additional housing required Auckland

Consents for new dwellings

A basis for local housing research

Housing need - closer scrutiny of HNZC application and letting data

- standardised survey of people seeking help from social service.

Housing demand - a household/population model of South Auckland perhaps based on 2013 Census - model updated with regularly with data on local births and deaths and estimates migration of migration

Housing supply - housing stock inventory based on 2013 Census - inventory updated with regular construction data

Housing affordability - household income model based on 2013 Census HES HLFS and QES - rent model updated with Tenancy Bonds data