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S P E C T R U M T E C H N I C A L N O T E
Presentation of Probability Forecasts in
ExtendWeather
By Dr. Chonghua Yin
Environmental Scientist at CLIMsystems LTD.
Terciles
For each grid point, the re-forecasts are analysed to determine the terciles of the model climate distribution at the specified lead time (1981-2010). The lower tercile is the value below which the outcome occurs in 1 out of 3 cases in the model climate, and the upper tercile is the value which is exceeded in 1 out of 3 cases. In the absence of any other information, and assuming the climate to be stationary, we would take the probability of a future value exceeding the upper tercile to be 1/3. Our forecast ensemble will give us a different estimate, which we normally take to be the fraction of ensemble forecast members which exceed the upper tercile of the model climate distribution. If there is no particular "forcing" acting on the system, then the proportion of forecast members exceeding the upper tercile will be about 1/3, and indeed this is often the case. However, if there is something in the climate system that "pushes" the forecast in a particular direction, then the predicted probability can be very different from 1/3, and these situations are typcially of particular interest.
S P E C T R U M T E C H N I C A L N O T E
Plots of the probabilities of the individual tercile categories (ie below the lower tercile, between the lower and upper tercile, and above the upper tercile ) are produced. We also produce a tercile summary plot, which shows in a single figure the areas which have an increased probability of being either below the lower tercile or above the upper tercile. This plot gives a
S P E C T R U M T E C H N I C A L N O T E
good overview of a seasonal forecast, and is listed first in the choice of plots offered to the user on the website.
Probability of exceeding median
Probability maps show the probability of a given model variable (e.g. precipitation) being greater than the model climate median. As with the terciles, the climate median is estimated from the set of re-forecasts made for the same calendar start date and lead time during the 30 year period 1981-2010. The probabilities are shaded symmetrically above 60% and below 40%.
S P E C T R U M T E C H N I C A L N O T E
Probability of highest/lowest 20%
We also show probability maps for excedence of the upper and lower 20th percentiles. These are useful for highlighting regions where the distribution of likely outcomes is shifted very substantially from the climatological average. The probabilities here are calculated in the normal way, by counting the number of forecast members in the relevant interval of the climatological distribution.
S P E C T R U M T E C H N I C A L N O T E
