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LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD
Overview of Adult Correctional Population Projections Costs Per Day and Recidivism RatesProjections, Costs Per Day, and Recidivism Rates
PRESENTED AT THE HOUSE COMMITTEE ON CORRECTIONS HEARINGLEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD STAFF FEBRUARY 2015
Correctional Population Projections: OverviewOverview
C ti l l ti j ti d d t Correctional population projections are produced to serve as abasis for biennial funding determinations.
Projections are based on current laws, policies, and practices.Subsequent shifts in these factors will be incorporated into futureLBB projectionsLBB projections.
The LBB simulation model incorporates these factors into theppopulation projections and tracks offender movement into,through, and out of the criminal and juvenile justice systems.
2FEBRUARY 26, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2338
Adult Correctional Projections: Overview
Population projections consider: Total Adult Population in TexasTotal Adult Population in Texas Arrests Court ActivityCourt Activity Considerations and Approvals from the Board of
Pardons and Paroles Admissions Length of Stay Qualitative Research Findings
3FEBRUARY 26, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2338
Adult Correctional Projections: Populationsj
■ Correctional Institutions
■ Parole
■ Community Supervision Average Felony Direct Misdemeanor Placements
FEBRUARY 26, 2015 4LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2338
Adult Correctional Projections: Incarceration Population and Operating Capacityp p g p y
Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020170,000
Actual PopulationFiscal Year 2010
154,283160,000
165,000
Projected Population Fi l Y 2015
Projected Population Fi l Y 2020
145 000
150,000
155,000 Fiscal Year 2015150,476
Fiscal Year 2020152,710
135,000
140,000
145,000
Actual Population Projected Population
Actual Operating Capacity Projected Operating Capacity
130,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
5
Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.
FEBRUARY 26, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2338
Adult Correctional Projections: Incarceration Population and Operating Capacityp p g p y
Fiscal Years 2015 to 2020
FISCALYEAR
INCARCERATIONPOPULATION
(END-OF-MONTHYEARLY AVERAGE)
OPERATINGCAPACITY
OPERATING CAPACITY COMPAREDTO PROJECTED POPULATION
DIFFERENCE PERCENTAGEYEAR YEARLY AVERAGE) CAPACITY DIFFERENCE PERCENTAGE
2015 150,476 152,760 2,284 1.5%2016 151,306 152,760 1,454 1.0%2017 151,550 152,760 1,210 0.8%2018 152,025 152,760 735 0.5%2019 152 413 152 760 347 0 2%2019 152,413 152,760 347 0.2%2020 152,710 152,760 50 0.0%
N t O ti it i 96 0 t f th f t t l it iti
6
Note: Operating capacity is 96.0 percent of the sum of total unit capacitiesSources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.
FEBRUARY 26, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2338
Adult Correctional Projections: ParoleParole
Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020
81,22087,588 88,053
100,000
81,220 80,000
60,000 Actual Projected
40,0002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
7
Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.
FEBRUARY 26, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2338
Adult Correctional Projections: Parole
Fiscal Years 2015 to 2020
FISCALYEAR
PROJECTED ACTIVE ADULT PAROLE SUPERVISIONPOPULATION
(END-OF-MONTH YEARLY AVERAGE)
2015 87,5882016 87,6462017 87 7512017 87,7512018 87,8262019 87,941
Source: Legislative Budget Board.
2019 87,9412020 88,053
8
g g
FEBRUARY 26, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2338
Adult Correctional Projections: Felony Direct Community SupervisionFelony Direct Community Supervision
Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020
172,893
170,000
175,000
180,000
159,355 159,548 160,000
165,000
0,000
145,000
150,000
155,000Actual Projected
140,000
145,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
9
Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.
FEBRUARY 26, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2338
Adult Correctional Projections: Felony Direct Community Supervisiony y p
Fiscal Years 2015 to 2020
FISCALYEAR
PROJECTED FELONY DIRECT COMMUNITYSUPERVISION POPULATION
(END-OF-MONTH YEARLY AVERAGE)
2015 159,3552016 159,4852017 159 4402017 159,4402018 159,0072019 159,145
Source: Legislative Budget Board.
2019 159,1452020 159,548
10FEBRUARY 26, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2338
Adult Correctional Projections: Misdemeanor Community Supervision PlacementsMisdemeanor Community Supervision Placements
Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020
111,716
99 401
110,000
120,000
99,401 96,723
90,000
100,000
Actual Projected
70,000
80,000Actual Projected
60,0002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
11Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.
FEBRUARY 26, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2338
Adult Correctional Projections: Misdemeanor Community Supervision Placements
Fiscal Years 2015 to 2020
FISCALYEAR
PROJECTED MISDEMEANORCOMMUNITY SUPERVISION PLACEMENTS
2015 99,4012016 98,4272017 98,1842018 97,9402019 96 966
Source: Legislative Budget Board.
2019 96,9662020 96,723
12FEBRUARY 26, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2338
Qualitative Review■ Interviews and focus groups with adult practitioners in
selected counties and at professional conferences.Participants included:
□ judges;
□ prosecutors;
□ defense attorneys;
□ adult community supervision staff;
□ adult parole staff;
□ state agency personnel; and
□ adult community supervision and parole offenders.
13LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2338FEBRUARY 26, 2015
Qualitative ReviewAdult Criminal Justice Findings
■ Adult criminal justice population trends are largely stable.■ Adult criminal justice population trends are largely stable.
■ The felony community supervision population is higher risk and higherneed.
■ Incarceration remains an attractive option over community supervisionfor certain offenders.
14LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2338FEBRUARY 26, 2015
Criminal and Juvenile Justice Uniform Cost Report: OverviewOverview
The February 2015 Adult and Juvenile Justice Uniform CostReport provides costs per day per person for various adult andReport provides costs per day per person for various adult andjuvenile correctional populations for use in funding determinationsand to provide a basis of comparison among correctionalprograms and previously published cost figuresprograms and previously published cost figures.■ Uniform costs are assessments of the total costs of
operating a correctional facility or program and aret d t dreported as costs per day per person.
■ Costs per day were calculated for various TexasDepartment of Criminal Justice (TDCJ) populations andDepartment of Criminal Justice (TDCJ) populations andprograms for fiscal years 2013 and 2014.
15LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2338FEBRUARY 26, 2015
Criminal and Juvenile Justice Uniform Cost Report: HighlightsHighlights
TDCJ Population Fiscal Year 2013 Fiscal Year 2014
Prison (systemwide) $52.64 $54.89
Parole Supervision $3 87 $4 04Parole Supervision $3.87 $4.04
Community Supervision $3.13 $3.20
Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.
16LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2338FEBRUARY 26, 2015
Criminal and Juvenile Justice Recidivism and Revocation Rates Report: OverviewRevocation Rates Report: Overview
■ Recidivism is a return to criminal activity after previouscriminal involvement.
■ Each cohort is followed for three years.
■ This report uses the following measures to determinerecidivismrecidivism.
□ Rearrest
□ Reincarceration
□ Revocation
17LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2338FEBRUARY 26, 2015
Criminal and Juvenile Justice Recidivism and Revocation Rates Report: HighlightsRevocation Rates Report: Highlights
Fiscal Year 2011
Adult Populations Rearrest% Incarceration/Reincarceration%Adult Populations Rearrest% Incarceration/Reincarceration%
Prison 46.5 21.4
State Jail 62.0 30.7
Substance Abuse Felony Punishment Facility
44.7 44.1
In-Prison Therapeutic Community 48.1 23.1
Intermediate Sanction Facility 57.5 36.5
Fiscal Year 2014 Revocation RatesFelony Direct Community Supervision 15.6 %
Parole 6.5 %
18LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2338FEBRUARY 26, 2015
Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice; Texas Department of Public Safety.
