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Presentation to City of Minneapolis, Policy Liaison Team

Andi Egbert, Assistant Director, MN State Demographic Center

January 22, 2015

Website: mn.gov/demography | Twitter: @MN_StateData

+ What is the role of the

MN State Demographic Center?

Serve as a liaison to the Census Bureau and assist with the decennial census counts

Create MN population estimates and projections

Analyze, interpret and distribute data from the state, U.S. Census Bureau and other sources

Offer data and technical assistance to legislators, all levels of government, organizations and citizens across the state

Monitor trends and help MN to make data-informed decisions

+

Major trends for Minnesota plus a focus on

Minneapolis’ unique context

4 Aging & Implications

Labor Force Concerns

Growing Diversity

Migration

Aging trends

+

250000 150000 50000 50000 150000 250000

Under 5

5 to 9

10 to 14

15 to 19

20 to 24

25 to 29

30 to 34

35 to 39

40 to 44

45 to 49

50 to 54

55 to 59

60 to 64

65 to 69

70 to 74

75 to 79

80 to 84

85 to 89

90+

MN population by age and sex, 2015

Female

Male

What Minnesota looks like…

this year

65 years

Source: MN State Demographic Center Projections

+ How many additional “older adults”

will we gain during this decade?

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Minnesota State Demographic Center

85 55

71 67 47

91

- - - - -

1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 2050s

Change in older adults, age 65+ (Thousands)

+ This decade and next: Unprecedented

increases in MN’s 65+ population

85 55

71 67 47

91

285

335

97 66 56

1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 2050s

Change in older adults, age 65+ (in thousands)

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, MN State Demographic Center

+ QUIZ QUESTION:

What event is predicted to happen in 2020 that has never before happened in the history of our state?

A. The Vikings will win the Super Bowl B. MN will have more immigrants than

U.S.-born residents C. MN will have more 65+ residents

than school-age children, 5-17

+ For the first time in MN history:

More 65+ than school-age by 2020

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

19

50

19

60

19

70

19

80

19

90

20

00

20

10

20

20

20

30

20

40

20

50

20

60

65+

5-17

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census, and Minnesota State Demographic Center projections

+ Older adults in Minnesota by age

cohort, 2010-2050

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

85+

75-84

65-74


The number of older

adults in MN will

double between

2010 and 2030.

+ By 2030, more than 1 in 5 Minnesotans

will be 65+, including all Baby Boomers

13%

21%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

% age 85+

% age 75-84

% age 65-74


+ The coming decades will see

dramatic growth in older cohorts

209,000

58,000

334,000

227,000

59,000

219,000

330,000

167,000

280,000 245,000 257,000

309,000 302,000

228,000

-200,000

-100,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

Age 45-54 Age 55-64 Age 65-74 Age 75-84 Age 85+

Expected numeric change in people by age cohorts, between 2010 and given year, Minnesota

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

19,000

Sources: Minnesota State Demographic Center projections.

+

250000 150000 50000 50000 150000 250000

Under 5

5 to 9

10 to 14

15 to 19

20 to 24

25 to 29

30 to 34

35 to 39

40 to 44

45 to 49

50 to 54

55 to 59

60 to 64

65 to 69

70 to 74

75 to 79

80 to 84

85 to 89

90+

MN population by age and sex, 2015

Female

Male

What Minnesota looks like…

this year

65 years

Source: MN State Demographic Center Projections

+

50000 35000 20000 5000 10000 25000 40000

0 to 4

5 to 9

10 to 14

15 to 19

20 to 24

25 to 29

30 to 34

35 to 39

40 to 44

45 to 49

50 to 54

55 to 59

60 to 64

65 to 69

70 to 74

75 to 79

80 to 84

85+

Population by age and sex Hennepin, 2015

Female

Male

What Hennepin County looks

like… this year

Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center projections, available at mn.gov/demography/projections

+

50000 35000 20000 5000 10000 25000 40000

0 to 4

5 to 9

10 to 14

15 to 19

20 to 24

25 to 29

30 to 34

35 to 39

40 to 44

45 to 49

50 to 54

55 to 59

60 to 64

65 to 69

70 to 74

75 to 79

80 to 84

85+


FemaleMale

What Hennepin County will look

like… in 10 years


+

50000 35000 20000 5000 10000 25000 40000

0 to 4

5 to 9

10 to 14

15 to 19

20 to 24

25 to 29

30 to 34

35 to 39

40 to 44

45 to 49

50 to 54

55 to 59

60 to 64

65 to 69

70 to 74

75 to 79

80 to 84

85+


FemaleMale


like… in 20 years


+

50000 35000 20000 5000 10000 25000 40000

0 to 4

5 to 9

10 to 14

15 to 19

20 to 24

25 to 29

30 to 34

35 to 39

40 to 44

45 to 49

50 to 54

55 to 59

60 to 64

65 to 69

70 to 74

75 to 79

80 to 84

85+


Female

Male


like… in 30 years


+ Aging: not what it used to be…

Minnesota’s older adults are healthier,

living longer, and working longer than prior

generations

Life expectancy for Minnesotans age 65 now is 20.1

more years (15.6 years in good health)

Variations across racial,

educational, other groups

Minnesota’s Boomers and

older adults volunteer in

record numbers

Source: Centers for Disease Control, 2013. Current Population Survey, Volunteering Supplement.

+ Challenges related to our aging

population

Will we have the workers to form a strong, skilled, highly productive labor force as the Boomers retire — for economic growth, tax revenues for needed services, and maintaining a high quality of life in MN?

Will we have or create sufficient infrastructure for more transportation, caregiving, health care, and social support needs, as health challenges and disabilities increase, especially when children live far away?

Will we be able to finance needed services, especially long-term care? Private and public medical expenses will increase considerably.

General Fund Expenditures FY 2012-2013

Within Health & Human Services

K-12 Education

42%

Health & Human Services

31%

Higher Education

8%

All other areas 19%

Medical Assistance Expenditures: 25% of GF spending (8.5 billion)

Medical Assistance Expenditures for the Elderly and Disabled: 16% of GF spending (5.5 billion)

MA expenditures include basic care, long-term care waivers and long-term institutional care

Increasingly our demographics will

change the demand for services

Sources: Minnesota Management and Budget, February 2013. House Research, Long-Term Care Services for the Elderly, November 2012

Labor force trends

+ Older adults projected to remain in

the labor force longer than before

55-59

60-61

62-64

65-69

70-74

75+ 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Projected labor force participation

rates of older adults

Minnesota, 1980-2040


+ Labor force growth will continue to

slow considerably

1.9%

2.7%

1.5% 1.5%

0.9%

0.5% 0.3%

0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3%


+ Projected growth in MN labor force

(Annual average, ages 16+)

32,000

38,000

25,000

8,000

4,000

13,000

1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Minnesota State Demographic Center Projections

+ Total 25- to 64-year-olds in MN will

dip by about 100,000 individuals

2

0

1

7

2

0

4

0

Sources: Minnesota State Demographic Center projections

+ The ratio of retirees to workers has

never come as close as it will

2010 2030

1 retiree

5 workers

1 retiree

3 workers

We need to develop, retain, and attract human

capital to compete economically

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, MN State Demographic Center projections

Real GDP

Growth

Productivity Growth

Labor force participation

Working-age population

growth

+ Share of Minnesotans with 4 years

of college or more

1960 1970 1980 1990

2000

2013

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

Years of Age

Source: Tabulated by the MN State Demographic Center from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series

+ Rising educational attainment strongly

associated with productivity growth at

the state level (1979-2012)

Source: EPI analysis of unpublished total economy productivity data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Labor Productivity and Costs program, state employment data from BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics, and college attainment data from the Current Population Survey basic monthly microdata.

+ MN bachelor’s degrees yield very

different employment outcomes

Minnesota Bachelor’s Degree Awards by Instructional Program

Number of bachelor degree

graduates

Annual median earnings of all

employed graduates in 2nd year after

graduation

Percent working F/T

& year-round in 2nd

Year

Median earnings of

F/T employed in

2nd Year

We

ll A

lign

ed

Engineering 1,217 $55,489 69% $59,124

Construction trades 25 $53,675 76% $55,472

Computer and information science 647 $51,990 68% $56,277

Health profession 2,577 $50,021 40% $59,646

Engineering technologies 165 $47,688 68% $51,960

Business, management, and marketing 6,272 $38,667 64% $45,289

Po

orl

y A

lign

ed

Visual and performing arts 1,562 $17,833 29% $31,039

Transportation and materials moving 51 $17,731 35% $26,447

Area, ethnic, cultural, gender, and group studies 168 $17,540 28% $30,300

History 443 $16,513 29% $34,154

Theology and religious vocations 337 $15,741 30% $33,185

Source: Steve Hine, Research Director, Labor Market Information Office, MN Department of Employment and Economic Development, via Graduate Employment Outcomes tool , online at: http://mn.gov/deed/data/data-tools/graduate-employment-outcomes/

+ Alignment of training/education to

labor force needs is crucial

If wage and employment rates are the outcome of interaction between supply and demand, they tells which fields of study are in demand and which are not

These data allow individuals and workforce planners to steer into areas with better opportunities

As college grads exhaust college-appropriate job options, they move down and displace lesser-educated people from their jobs. Thus, less skilled workers are left with fewer opportunities, so remain unemployed or leave the workforce altogether

Thus ALIGNMENT helps workers of all levels of education/training

Data for all fields of study are on DEED’s website at under Graduate Employment Outcomes tool: http://mn.gov/deed/data/data-tools/graduate-employment-outcomes/

Source: Steve Hine, Research Director, Labor Market Information Office, MN Department of Employment and Economic Development.

http://mn.gov/deed/data/data-tools/graduate-employment-outcomes/








+ Job outlook in MN through 2022

(from DEED)

Total jobs in MN projected to increase by 205,000 between 2012 and

2022. This is 7 times more job growth than during previous 10 years

(2002-2012), when MN added just 29,000 jobs (Great Recession)

However, by 2017-2022, labor shortages will limit job expansion in MN

The two largest major occupational groups in Minnesota —

1) professional & related occupations, and 2) service occupations —

will add the most jobs by 2022 (61% of all expected growth)

Include many occupations at the opposite ends of the educational

attainment and earnings range.

Occupations adding the most jobs: personal care aides (+ 23,000),

home health aides (+ 10,000), registered nurses (+ 9,000),

retail salespersons (+ 7,000), food prep workers and servers (+ 5,000)

Source: MN Department of Employment and Economic Development, Trends magazine, July 2014: http://mn.gov/deed/newscenter/publications/review/july-2014/employment-outlook-2022.jsp

Diversity & Immigration

+

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000

Under 5

5 to 9

10 to 14

15 to 19

20 to 24

25 to 29

30 to 34

35 to 39

40 to 44

45 to 49

50 to 54

55 to 59

60 to 64

65 to 69

70 to 74

75 to 79

80 to 84

85+

White (non-

Hispanic)

Of Color

Minnesota’s population by

age groups, 2012

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 population estimates

+

Source: mncompass.org

50 years of growing diversity in our

metro, state and nation

36%

17%

24%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Percent Of Color, 1960-2010

U.S. MN Twin Cities

+ Diversity in the metro counties

Carver, 10%

Dakota, 19%

Ramsey, 34%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012

Percent Persons of Color

Twin Cities 7-County Metro

Scott & Anoka, 16%

Washington, 15%

Hennepin, 29%

Black, Latino and Asian

populations growing rapidly

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Populations of color, MN

American Indian

Asian

Black

Hispanic

Two or more races

Source: Tabulated by the Minnesota State Demographic Center from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series

+ Between 2000 and 2010 most of MN’s

growth was from populations of Color

Of Color

86%

White

14%

350,000 more Minnesota residents in 2010 than in 2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

+ MN: Largest growth among Asian,

Black and Hispanic groups by 2030

60,300

223,300

264,900 258,200

84,300 63,800

358,900

419,500

491,700

128,000

American

Indian

Asian Black Hispanic Two or More

Races

2010

2030

Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center projections.

Populations of Color > 20% in 2000

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Social Explorer.

Populations of Color > 20% in 2008-2012


+ In Minnesota

5 in 10 Black children,

4 in 10 American Indian children

3 in 10 Hispanic children

2 in 10 Asian children, and

1 in 10 White children

LIVED IN POVERTY IN 2012

+ Which MN kids are leaving high school

in 4 years with a diploma? (2013 data)

79% of all high school students (2009: 74%) + 5 pts

49% of American Indian students (2009: 41%) + 8 pts

78% of Asian students (2009: 68%) + 10 pts

58% of Hispanic students (2009: 43%) + 15 pts

57% of Black students (2009: 43%) + 14 pts

85% of White students (2009: 82%) + 3 pts

77% of boys (2009: 72%) + 5 pts

82% of girls (2009: 77%) +5 pts

Two fastest

growing

demographic

groups in MN

+ Wide racial gaps in educational

attainment persist in Minnesota

42%

16%

4%

58%

33%

14%

White Black American Indian Asian Two or

more/Other

Hispanic/Latino

Percent of young adults (age 25-34) with

a B.A. or higher, 2010-2012

Source: Tabulated by the State Demographic Center from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series

Migration trends

+ QUIZ QUESTION:

True or False: Immigrants are more

common in MN today than they

were in 1920.

A. True

B. False


+

Immigration is

not a new

phenomenon

in MN

Percent Foreign Born

Minnesota 1970-2009

7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

20%


+ Much of our state’s character is

from immigration in late 1800s

Foreign-born by country of birth, MN, 1870-2011

Source: MNCompass tabulations of IPUMS version of U.S. Census Bureau decennial censuses and 2009-2011 American Community Survey

19

00

20

00

+ Our foreign-

born

population is

becoming

increasingly

diverse

Foreign Born by World Region of

Birth

Minnesota 1950-2008

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Oceania

NorthernAmerica

Africa

Latin America

Asia

Europe

Source: mncompass.org

+

71,000

26,300

24,400

21,200

18,500

15,000

13,600

13,400

12,500

12,400

12,200

7,600

7,300

7,200

6,700

6,300

5,100

4,700

Mexico

India

Laos

Somalia

Vietnam

Thailand

China

Korea

Ethiopia

Canada

Liberia

Germany

Kenya

El Salvador

Russia

Philippines

Colombia

Nigeria

*

MN foreign-born populations: Largest

groups by country of birth, 2010-2012

Source: MN Compass, tabulation of IPUMS version of 2010-2012 American Community Survey

* Hmong represented

*

+ Growth of immigrant communities in Twin Cities and Greater Minnesota

Twin Cities

(7-county)

303,166

27,156

Greater MN

75,317

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Foreign-born residents, 1970-2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970-2010

+

One dot =

500 foreign-

born

Pelican Rapids

(680)

Long Prairie

(639)

Willmar (1,575)

Marshall

(1,028)

Worthington

(3,396)

St. James (740)

Melrose (615)

Mankato

(2,028) Owatonna (1,170)

Northfield (1,625)

Faribault

(2,379)

Austin (2,640)

Albert Lea (596)

Winona (1,011)

Foreign-

born in

MN

2008-2012

Buffalo(703)


Pelican

Rapids

Long

Prairie

Melrose

St. James

Worthington

Greater MN Cities

with 15%+ & 500+

foreign born

residents


+ Percent of MN young people who

are “children of immigrants”

Under age 20, it’s 1 in 6

Under age 5, it’s almost 1 in 5

“Children of immigrants” are

foreign-born themselves, or have

one or two foreign-born parents Source: mncompass.org

+ Net migration will become the

major driver of our state’s growth

Source: MN State Demographic Center projections, October 2013.

Net migration

Natural change

(births-deaths)

+ MN domestic migration has been

negative every year of past decade

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, 2013

+ About 113,000 people leave MN

each year for other states

Only about 101,000 arrive from other states,

resulting in domestic losses

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Annual leavers from Minnesota, by age group and

student status, 2008-2012

Undergrad or grad student

Not an undergrad or grad student

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, IPUMS version of American Community Survey, 2008-2012. Tabulations by MN State Demographic Center. Findings to be published in

a forthcoming report.

+

Focus on Minneapolis

Minneapolis’

population tops

400,000 in our

2013 estimates

400,938 people +

170,195 households

+ Minneapolis’ posts greatest

population gains since 2010

1,041

1,094

1,107

1,203

1,208

1,242

1,275

1,427

1,434

1,625

1,692

1,835

1,932

2,071

2,095

2,179

2,208

2,393

3,042

3,384

3,785

4,832

11,474

18,360

Chaska

Andover

Minnetonka

Chanhassen

Coon Rapids

Apple Valley

Edina

Prior Lake

Mankato

Shakopee

Savage

Lakeville

Eden Prairie

St. Louis Park

Eagan

Maple Grove

Brooklyn Park

Plymouth

Bloomington

Rogers

Woodbury

Blaine

St. Paul

Minneapolis

Population added between 2010 and 2013, metro cities

Source: Decennial Census; Minnesota State Demographic Center, Population Estimates

+ Minneapolis’ households:

1/3rd are under 65, living alone

Under age 20,

children of Color

are the majority in

the city

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census, via 2013 OneMinneapolis report, Wilder Research and The Minneapolis Foundation. Online at http://www.minneapolisfoundation.org/Libraries/Documents_for_Website/2013OneMinneapolisReport.sflb.ashx 1 Note: Data do not exist from this dataset for same-sex couples among Minneapolis households. They are likely appearing in the “Other (non-family” category above.

Additional Years Boomers Expect to Remain in their Communities

Source: Transform 2010 Survey, MN Department of Human Services

+ 6 in 10 Mpls residents are White,

while 4 in 10 are persons of Color

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census, via 2013 OneMinneapolis report, Wilder Research and The Minneapolis Foundation. Online at http://www.minneapolisfoundation.org/Libraries/Documents_for_Website/2013OneMinneapolisReport.sflb.ashx

+ Minneapolis’ populations of Color

are very young


+ Minneapolis’ populations of Color

are very young

Young adults (20s,

30s) a much

stronger presence

in the city than most

of state

Under age 20,

children of Color

are the majority in

the city


+

Majority

race, by

block, 2010


+ Children in

poverty,

2007-2011


+ Adults

(age 16-64)

who are

working,

2007-2011


+ Minneapolis’ labor force pipeline

is challenged

4-year graduation rate used to assess potential

and actual graduates


+ Minneapolis: Local labor market

movement (2011)

About 66K workers both live AND work in Minneapolis

About 211K nonresidents ENTER Minneapolis to go to work

About 92K residents LEAVE Minneapolis to go to work

About 6 in 10 Minneapolis residents who are working do so outside of Minneapolis

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OnTheMap. Refers to primary jobs only, in the case

of multiple jobs.

+ Take-away thoughts for all

Minnesotans

All areas of the state will feel effects of an aging population, some places

much more acutely. This will create fierce debates about where to spend

scarce public dollars, as health care and long-term care become cost-

drivers of public budgets. How we manage the transition from young to

old will be important for all our residents.

There are many healthy years ahead for many of our older adults. How

can we enlist and benefit from older adults reshaping their communities

in the years to come?

Fewer workers relative to older adults puts a premium on developing,

retaining, and attracting skilled workers — to fuel economic growth and

to pay for needed public services. Alignment of preparation is key.

Poor educational, health and economic outcomes for our fast-growing

populations of color jeopardize our economic competitiveness and

quality of life for all.

+

Andi Egbert [email protected]

Questions?

Comments?

Thank you!

+

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