Presentation to

Friends of Yamhill

County

Darrin Sharp

The Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI)

November 16, 2015

The earth is ~4.6 billion years old.

Public Domain

It has experienced many truly cataclysmic

changes. Continents moved ...

Kieff, Wikimedia Commons,CC-BY SA 3.0

Volcanoes changed the landscape ...

Oliver Spalt, Wikimedia Commons,CC BY-2.0

At times, the earth was much warmer;

dinosaurs came and went ….

Gerhard Boeggemann, Wikimedia Commons,CC BY-SA 2.5

Other times, much of the Northern

hemisphere was covered by ice.

Itiz, Wikimedia Commons,CC BY-SA 3.0

But about 12,000 years ago, things settled down.

Public Domain

Since the end of the last ice age, conditions

have been very favorable for us.

Public Domain

Alex Gaylon, Wikimedia Commons,CC BY-SA 2.0

Much of our culture, and cultural identity

has developed during the last 12,000 years.

Shmuel Spiegelman, Wikimedia Commons,CC BY-SA 1.0

Hamish2k, Wikimedia Commons,CC BY-SA 3.0

This has also been a period of remarkable

technological achievements.

Public Domain

But things are changing. 250 years ago

we discovered the energy in fossil fuels.

FLCelloGuy, Wikimedia Commons,By CC-SA 3.0

Public Domain

antandrus, Wikimedia Commons, By CC-SA 3.0

As a result of burning these fuels, we’re

changing the planet. [We are reversing the process that

created Earth’s current atmosphere by re-releasing fossilized carbon as CO2.]

Public Domain

NOAA Climate.gov, based on EPICA Dome C data (Lüthi, D., et al., 2008) provided by NOAA NCDC Paleoclimatology Program

Current levels of CO2

are unprecedented over

the last 800,000 years.

The Greenhouse Effect

Will Elder, NPS

The average global temperature is up

about 1.6 °F since 1880.

NOAA Climate at a Glance

1 °C ~= 1.8 °F

vs. 20th Century average

The average temperature in the PNW is up

about 2° F since 1895.

NOAA Climate at a Glance

There has been little change in annual

precipitation in the PNW since 1895.

NOAA Climate at a Glance

What Global Warming!?

Nic McPhee, Wikimedia Commons,By CC-SA 2.0

Increased average global temperatures are likely to disrupt weather patterns, possibly resulting in colder weather in some areas. A cold winter somewhere doesn’t disprove the “global warming” theory any more than a hot summer proves it. We need to look at long term averages over wide domains.

OK!

Enough with the past, what about

the future?

Relative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and

Special Report on Emissions Scenarios

(SRESs) are used for emissions projections.

We’re probably not going to see any of these

guys soon, but …

Public Domain

NWCAR 2013

All scenarios project increased temperatures

in the PNW.

Much variability in precipitation projections;

suggestion of increased seasonality in the

PNW.

NWCAR 2013

Climate change may cause changes in the timing of streamflows. rain dominant

rain/snow

snow dominant

There are two primary processes contributing

equally (in very round numbers) to sea level rise:

melting ice and thermal expansion of sea waters.

"Pastoruri Glacier" by Edubucher CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons

Projections call for ~24 in. of sea level rise (SLR) along

the OR coast by 2100 (~ ¼ inch per year).

10 cm ~= 4 inches62 cm ~= 2 feet

Natl. Research Council, Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future, 2010

kulshrax, Wikimedia Commons, By CC-SA 2.5

Warmer avg

temperatures

(Probably)

Drier Summers

Tomas Castelezo, Wikimedia Commons,By CC 3.0

A couple of feet of

Sea Level Rise by

2100

Wikimedia Commons, By CC-SA 2.0

The ship has sailed. Some “climate disruption” is

inevitable at this point. However, what we do today

will strongly influence the type, intensity, and

probability of certain climate events occurring in

the future.

Public Domain