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Reserve Bank of Fiji. PRESENTATION TO THE FIJI AUSTRALIA BUSINESS COUNCIL. THE FIJI ECONOMY: FACING THE GLOBAL CRISIS. Mr Savenaca Narube Governor, Reserve Bank of Fiji 2 December 2008. Reserve Bank of Fiji. OUTLINE. GLOBAL CRISIS EXPOSURE TO TRADE IN GOODS & SERVICES GROWTH OUTLOOK - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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PRESENTATION TO THE
FIJI AUSTRALIA BUSINESS COUNCIL
THE FIJI ECONOMY: THE FIJI ECONOMY: FACING THE GLOBAL CRISISFACING THE GLOBAL CRISIS
Mr Savenaca NarubeMr Savenaca NarubeGovernor, Governor, Reserve Bank of Fiji Reserve Bank of Fiji
2 December 20082 December 2008Reserve Bank of Fiji
OUTLINE
• GLOBAL CRISIS
• EXPOSURE TO TRADE IN GOODS &
SERVICES
• GROWTH OUTLOOK
• KEY CHALLENGES AND POLICY
RESPONSES
• SUMMARY
Reserve Bank of Fiji
SNAPSHOT OF THE FIJI ECONOMY
• Economy declined heavily in 2007
• Recovery to begin this year but low growth
• The trade deficit is widening and exerting pressure on foreign reserves
• Inflation has risen to a 20-year high but to decline to a moderate level in 2009
• Investment has fallen
• Unemployment is rising
• Poverty is worsening
NOW COMES THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS …..Reserve Bank of Fiji
3.9
3.0
2.2
4.1
5.0
3.9
3.7
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
2004 2005 2006 2007(e) 2008(f) 2009(f)
Forecast @ JulForecast @ OctForecast @ Nov
%
WORLD GDP GROWTH
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook – Nov 08Reserve Bank of Fiji
2.0
4.2
3.2
2.1
2.62.5
0.70.5
-0.7
2.2
1.5
-0.2
-0.5
1.21.4
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
United States Australia New Zealand Japan Eurozone
2007(e) 2008(f) 2009(f)
%
TRADING PARTNERS’ OUTLOOK
Source: World Economic Outlook – Oct 08 & Nov 08
0.10.1
1.61.6
3.23.23.13.1
2.02.0
2.12.1
0.70.7
0.50.5
1.31.3
0.20.2
Reserve Bank of Fiji
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
EXCHANGE RATES OF SELECTED CURRENCIES AGAINST FJD
NZD/AUD/EUR/USD
NZD 11%
AUD 16%
2007 2008
USD -14%
EURO -4%
Reserve Bank of Fiji
YEN -26%
YEN
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O
NEER 103..05
REER 106.23
Index
2006 20072005200420032002200120001999199819971996 2008Reserve Bank of Fiji
REER/NEER (Monthly Average)
EXPOSURE TO EXPOSURE TO TRADE IN GOODS TRADE IN GOODS
& SERVICES& SERVICES
Reserve Bank of Fiji
Reserve Bank of Fiji
US20%
Japan6%
Australia18%
NZ9%
Europe, incl UK22%
Others14%
Pacifc Islands7%
China1%
HK2%Singapore
1%
Source: FIBOS
*Refers to 2007
FIJI’S COMMODITY EXPORT* DESTINATIONS
100
24
7 5 5 5 40
102030405060708090
100110
MineralWater
Fresh Fish Coral &Similar
Materials
FlavouredWater
Sugar Mahogany Taro
$M
MAJOR EXPORTS* TO US
Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: FIBOS
*Represents 84% of total commodity exports to the US in 2007
Demand Will Slow Down
125
165
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Sugar Fresh Fish Ginger Coconut Oil
$M
Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: FIBOS
MAJOR EXPORTS* TO EUROPE
*Represents 83% of total commodity exports to the UK, Germany, France & Italy in 2007
Sugar Exports Unaffected
27
17
6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Woodchips Fresh Fish Sugar
$M
MAJOR EXPORTS* TO JAPAN
Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: FIBOS
*Represents 88% of total commodity exports to Japan in 2007
Demand Will Slow Down
80
17
8 5 4 30
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Garments SweetBiscuits
Textiles Taro UncookedPasta
Gold
$M
MAJOR EXPORTS* TO AUS
Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: FIBOS
*Represents 73% of total commodity exports to Australia in 2007
Garments May Be Affected
14
11
6
3 3 3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Taro Garments UncookedPasta
Lead Wasteand Scrap
Fresh Fish Molasses
$M
MAJOR EXPORTS* TO NZ
Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: FIBOS
*Represents 48% of total commodity exports to New Zealand in 2007
Demand Will Slow Down
IMPACT ON EXPORTS
• Slowdown in exports which are demand driven
– Tourism
– Water
– Garments
• Supply driven exports – structural constraints
binding
• Slowdown in growth of total exports
Reserve Bank of Fiji
Reserve Bank of Fiji
US12%
Japan4%
Australia39%
NZ19%
Continental Europe, incl UK
11%
Others5%Pacifc Islands
6%
Asia4%
VISITOR ARRIVALS* BY COUNTRY
Source: FIBOS
*Refers to 2007
‘000s
440
298
415 418 398317
374
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2002 2003 2004(p) 2005(p) 2006(p) 2007(p) 2008(f) 2009(f)
ForecastAnnualJan to Sep
VISITOR ARRIVALS
398431
503550 545 539
580
Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: FIBOS & Macroeconomic Committee
600
11%
8%8%3%3%
Growth Under Threat
‘000s
Reserve Bank of Fiji
4948
0
20
40
60
80
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004(p) 2005(p) 2006(p) 2007 2008(f)
Jan to Sep Annual
VISITOR ARRIVALS - USA
Source: FIBOS
74
6665
58595865
53
62
Already Declining
‘000s
Reserve Bank of Fiji
6058
0
20
40
60
80
100
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004(p) 2005(p) 2006(p) 2007(p) 2008(f)
Jan to Sep Annual
VISITOR ARRIVALS - EUROPE
Source: FIBOS
91
81
717265
51
71
52
69
Already Declining
‘000s
Reserve Bank of Fiji
1718
0
10
20
30
40
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004(p) 2005(p) 2006(p) 2007(p) 2008(f)
Jan to Sep Annual
VISITOR ARRIVALS - JAPAN
Source: FIBOS
30
242423
26
2023
20
38
Already Declining
‘000s
Reserve Bank of Fiji
7979
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004(p) 2005(p) 2006(p) 2007(p) 2008(f)
Jan to Sep Annual
VISITOR ARRIVALS - NZ
Source: FIBOS
96
108104
756866
100
49
72
Already Flat
‘000s
Reserve Bank of Fiji
172145
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
210
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004(p) 2005(p) 2006(p) 2007 2008(f)
Jan to Sep Annual
VISITOR ARRIVALS - AUSTRALIA
Source: FIBOS
181
198
176
142
124
98
207
77
118
Key Source of Growth
Reserve Bank of Fiji
CAD2% Others
2%
AUD21%
GBP6%
USD51%
EUR4%
NZD14%
REMITTANCES* BY CURRENCY
Source: RBF*Cumulative for the period Sep-07 to Jun-08, excluding remittances received in FJD
188
213232
297311
256
231 231
93
322
44
121134
158
184193
230
171
133
0
35
70
105
140
175
210
245
280
315
350
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(f) 2009(f)
Annual
Cumulative to August
Forecast
$M
PERSONAL REMITTANCES
Reserve Bank of Fiji
-10%-10%
-22%-22%
Source: RBF & Macroeconomic Committee
Already Declining
IMPACT ON SERVICES
• Reduce tourist arrivals
– Japan, Europe and US was already declining
– NZ tourists were also flat
– Australia was the growth industry
– Exchange rate will further dampen demand
• Remittances will decline further
Reserve Bank of Fiji
Australia23%
NZ18%
India2%
Others13%
Japan3%
UK1%
Singapore34%
US3%
China3%
Reserve Bank of Fiji
FIJI’S ORIGIN OF IMPORTS
Source: FIBOS
*Refers to 2007 Total Imports = $2,890m
345
32
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Aeroplane Parts Medicaments Oil Cake andResidue of Soya
Bean Oil
Anti-KnockPreparations
$M
IMPORTS* FROM UNITED STATES
Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: FIBOS
*Represents 47% of total commodity imports from the US in 2007
333
9
0
2
4
6
8
10
Cement Clinkers Optical FibreCables
TransportVessesls
Refuse Collectors
$M
IMPORTS* FROM JAPAN
Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: FIBOS
*Represents 21% of total commodity imports from Japan in 2007
Cement & Car Prices Will Rise
8 8910
24
6168
0
20
40
60
80
Wheat Textiles LiquefiedButanes
CrudeSoya
Bean Oil
AviationTurbine
Fuel
BrownRice
Cream &Milk forInfants
$M
IMPORTS* FROM AUSTRALIA
Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: FIBOS
*Represents 28% of total commodity imports from Australia in 2007
Food Prices Will Drop…
78
9911
1314
0
5
10
15
Potatoes FrozenSheep Meatwith Bones
Polymers SemiFinished
Products ofIron andNon-alloy
Steel
Cream andMilk forInfants
PrintedPapers
CorrugatedPaper &
Paperboard
$M
IMPORTS* FROM NEW ZEALAND
Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: FIBOS
*Represents 14% of total commodity imports from New Zealand in 2007
Food Prices Will Drop…
IMPACT ON IMPORTS
• Imports will rise
– Price of cars and auto parts will rise – demand will
drop
– Oil price in Fiji dollar will rise – will partly offset
the lower global price
– Prices of food and manufactured items will drop –
demand may be inelastic
– Cement price will riseReserve Bank of Fiji
-800 -840-900
-1296
-1530-1665
-2074-2180 -2197 -2213
-726
-1895
-497-594 -604
-700
-943
-1104
-1449
-1184
-1524
-2,750
-2,350
-1,950
-1,550
-1,150
-750
-350
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(f) 2009(f) 2010(f) 2011(f)
Annual Cumulative to September
F$M
*C.I.F Accrual data excluding aircraft
Source: FIBOS and Macroeconomic Committee
5%5% 1%1% 1%1%
TRADE BALANCE
Reserve Bank of Fiji
29%
25%
INVESTMENT
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007(e)
% of GDP
Private
Government
Statutory Bodies & Public Enterprises
Source: FIBOSReserve Bank of Fiji
GROWTH GROWTH OUTLOOKOUTLOOK
Reserve Bank of Fiji
-6.6
1.7 1.41.9
1.2
2.41.9 1.5
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
2007(p) 2008(f) 2009(f) 2010(f) 2011(f)
Forecast @ August 2008 Forecast @ October 2008%
Reserve Bank of Fiji
GDP GROWTH: 2006-2011
Source: FIBOS & Macroeconomic Committee
MAJOR DRIVERS
• Tourism
• Agriculture –fishing, forestry
• Manufacturing, except garments
• Mining – gold
• Water
Reserve Bank of Fiji
MAJOR DRAG
• Community & social services – Government
expenditure (2010 & 2011)
Reserve Bank of Fiji
1.3
1.92.1
2.42.7
3.6
4.6
0
1
2
3
4
5
Fiji Tonga Kiribati PNG Vanuatu Sol Is Samoa
GROWTH IN SELECTED PACIFIC ISLAND ECONOMIES
%
Average Growth 2001-2007
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (Oct & Nov 2008) & FIBOS
Growth Is Too Low
Reserve Bank of Fiji
0.3
1.31.6
3.6
5.4
7.0
8.2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Seychelles Fiji Jamaica Mauritius Singapore Maldives Trinidad &Tobago
%
Average Growth 2001-2007
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (Oct & Nov 2008) & FIBOS
GROWTH IN SELECTED SMALL ISLAND DEVELOPING STATES
Growth Is Too Low
KEY CHALLENGES KEY CHALLENGES AND POLICY MIXAND POLICY MIX
Reserve Bank of Fiji
KEY CHALLENGES
• Safeguarding Fiji’s external position
• Raising exports
• Raising investment
• Raising and sustaining growth
Reserve Bank of Fiji
BUDGETARY MEASURES
• PRO GROWTH
– 3% of GDP deficit
– Support for priority sectors
Tourism
Agriculture
ICT
Reserve Bank of Fiji
BUDGETARY MEASURES
• BALANCE OF PAYMENTS SUPPORT
– Bio Fuel
– Import Substitution
– Fiji Diaspora
– Increase in tariffs
• INVESTMENT
– Infrastructure development
– Incentives
Reserve Bank of Fiji
MONETARY MEASURES
• BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
– Credit Ceiling
– Exchange Controls
• INVESTMENT
– Interest rates
– Special approvals
Reserve Bank of Fiji
GOVERNMENT UNDERLYING BALANCE
Reserve Bank of Fiji
-193
-92-96
-157-168
-146
-220
-180
-140
-100
-60
-20
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(r) 2009(b)
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0$M
Source: Ministry of Finance
% of GDP
Expansionary Stance
GOVERNMENT REVENUE
Reserve Bank of Fiji
1,4651,386
1,2781,288
1,1211,083
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(r) 2009(b)
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
$M
Source: Ministry of Finance
% of GDP
1,3341,2141,2031,232
1,0801,024
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(r) 2009(b)
18.0
19.0
20.0
21.0
22.0
23.0
$M
GOVERNMENT OPERATING EXPENDITURE
Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: Ministry of Finance
% of GDPToo High as % of GDP
GOVERNMENT CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
216
171
107
129129130
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(r) 2009(b)
0
1
2
3
4
5$M
Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: Ministry of Finance
% of GDPGood Increase…
GOVERNMENT DEBT
Reserve Bank of Fiji
45 45 43 41
38
77
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2005 2006 2007 2008(r) 2009(b) 2010(b) 2011(b)
Domestic External
4852
5048
% of GDP
48 47 46
Deficit is Sustainable
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
J FMAMJ J A S ON D J FMAM J J A S ON D J FMAM J J A S ON D J FMAMJ J A S O
COMMERCIAL BANK’S LENDING RATE
8%
%
Reserve Bank of Fiji
2005 2006 2007 2008
Declining …
5.0
7.0
9.0
11.0
13.0
15.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J
New Zealand
PNG
Fiji
Samoa
Australia
%
2006Source: International Financial Statistics
2007Reserve Bank of Fiji
LENDING RATES:FIJI & SELECTED COUNTRIES
2008
Lowest In Region
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
J F M AM J J A S O N D J F M AM J J A S O N D J F M AM J J A S O N D J F M AM J J A S O
Consumption Investment
COMMERCIAL BANKS’ INVESTMENT & CONSUMPTION
LENDING%
2005 2006 2007
11%
2008
17%
Reserve Bank of Fiji
Rising Credit
7.5
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
8.5
INFLATION
200820072006
% Forecast
Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: FIBOS and Reserve Bank of Fiji
Will Moderate
883
1016
1116
1045
948 970
1097
908866
959
864
3.4
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
1050
1200
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Oct-08
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 Months of Imports (goods)$M
Months of Imports
Reserve Bank of Fiji
OFFICIAL FOREIGN RESERVESStill Under Pressure
SUMMARY
• Weak Fundamentals
• Financial Crisis will Reduce Potential
• Four Key Challenges
• Policy Mix
• Growth is too Low
• Agenda to Lift Growth Rests on Exports
Reserve Bank of Fiji
THANK YOUTHANK YOU
Reserve Bank of Fiji
HOW DO WE HOW DO WE COMPARE WITH COMPARE WITH
THE ASIAN CRISIS?THE ASIAN CRISIS?
Reserve Bank of Fiji
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
17000
18000
Jan-96 Mar-96 Jun-96 Sep-96 Dec-96 Mar-97 Jun-97 Sep-97 Dec-97 Mar-98 Jun-98 Sep-98 Dec-98
INDONESIAN RUPIAH AGAINST USD: 1996-98
Reserve Bank of Fiji
Rupiah weakened
by 130% in 1997
RUPIAH
9000910092009300940095009600970098009900
100001010010200103001040010500106001070010800109001100011100
2-Jan 28-Jan 21-Feb 18-Mar 11-Apr 7-May 2-Jun 26-Jun 22-Jul 15-Aug 10-Sep 6-Oct 30-Oct
INDONESIAN RUPIAH AGAINST USD: 2008
Reserve Bank of Fiji
Rupiah weakened by 20% so far in 2008
RUPIAH
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
Jan-96 Mar-96 Jun-96 Sep-96 Dec-96 Mar-97 Jun-97 Sep-97 Dec-97 Mar-98 Jun-98 Sep-98 Dec-98
KOREAN WON AGAINST USD: 1996-98
Reserve Bank of Fiji
Won weakened
by 102% in 1997
WON
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
2-Jan 28-Jan 21-Feb 18-Mar 11-Apr 7-May 2-Jun 26-Jun 22-Jul 15-Aug 10-Sep 6-Oct 30-Oct
KOREAN WON AGAINST USD: 2008
Reserve Bank of Fiji
WON
Won weakened by 38% so far in 2008
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Jan-96 Mar-96 Jun-96 Sep-96 Dec-96 Mar-97 Jun-97 Sep-97 Dec-97 Mar-98 Jun-98 Sep-98 Dec-98
THAI BAHT AGAINST USD: 1996-98
Reserve Bank of Fiji
Baht weakened by 82% in
1997
BAHT
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
1-Jan 25-Jan 20-Feb 17-Mar 10-Apr 6-May 30-May 25-Jun 21-Jul 14-Aug 9-Sep 3-Oct 29-Oct
THAI BAHT AGAINST USD: 2008
Reserve Bank of Fiji
BAHT
Baht weakened by 18% so far in 2008
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
Jan-96 Mar-96 Jun-96 Sep-96 Dec-96 Mar-97 Jun-97 Sep-97 Dec-97 Mar-98 Jun-98 Sep-98 Dec-98
SINGAPORE DOLLAR AGAINST USD: 1996-98
Reserve Bank of Fiji
Singapore Dollar
weakened by 20% in
1997
SGD
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1-Jan 25-Jan 20-Feb 17-Mar 10-Apr 6-May 30-May 25-Jun 21-Jul 14-Aug 9-Sep 3-Oct 29-Oct
SINGAPORE DOLLAR AGAINST USD: 2008
Reserve Bank of Fiji
SGD
Singapore Dollar
weakened by 3% so
far in 2008
MAJOR POLICY RESPONSE
• 20% DEVALUATION
• Why devaluation was necessary?
– Currencies of our major trading partners fell against the
US dollar so Fiji goods became expensive
– Competitor Asian currencies also fell drastically against
the US dollar so Fiji lost competitiveness/business
• Needed to compete on price
– Very important to make what we sold cheaper
Reserve Bank of Fiji
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00
IMPACT ON INFLATION%
Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: FIBOS
Oct-98: 9.1%
Inflation RoseInflation Rose
11
-7
6
2
13
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
%
Reserve Bank of Fiji
IMPACT ON EXPORTS
Accrual data excluding aircraft
Source: FIBOS
Exports Growth ReboundedExports Growth Rebounded
4.8
-2.2
1.3
8.8
-1.6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
%
Source: FIBOS & Macroeconomic Committee
IMPACT ON GROWTH
Reserve Bank of Fiji
Economy Recovered GraduallyEconomy Recovered Gradually
97
66
1721
156
0
50
100
150
200
Building &Construction
Manufacturing Electricity, Gas& Water
Transport,Storage &
Communication
Others
$M
COMMERCIAL BANKS’ SPECIAL LOAN APPROVALS BY PURPOSE
(As At 21/11/08)
TOTAL APPROVALS - $356m
Reserve Bank of Fiji
85
-427-500
119
-28
-600-540-480-420-360-300-240-180-120
-600
60120180
Europe* US Japan NZ Australia
BALANCE OF TRADE - 2007
Source: FIBOSReserve Bank of Fiji
$M
Trade Surplus
Trade Deficit
*UK, Germany, France, Italy
EXPORTS DRIVEN EXPORTS DRIVEN BY SUPPLY BY SUPPLY FACTORSFACTORS
Reserve Bank of Fiji
125119123106105106125
128 172
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008(f)
Cumulative to September Annual ForecastF$M
SUGAR EXPORTS
Reserve Bank of Fiji
237
165
231234
185
215224
209226225
25%25%
-29%-29%
Source: FIBOS & Macroeconomic Committee
38%
40 39
31
4245
56
62
4843
38
3432
26 2730
32
25
3545
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(f) 2009(f)
Annual Cumulative to September Forecast
TIMBER EXPORTS$M
Reserve Bank of Fiji
10%10%
Source: FIBOS & Macroeconomic Committee
18%18%
29%
93
78 79 81 83
101
117123
98
86
977574
65595959
7169
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(f) 2009(f)
Annual Cumulative to September Forecast$M
FISH EXPORTS
Reserve Bank of Fiji
5%5%
Source: FIBOS & Macroeconomic Committee
15%15%
29%
41
27
3
43
59
89
77
68
85
70
12
34
5461
49 52
66
43
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(f) 2009(f)
Annual Cumulative to September Forecast$M
GOLD EXPORTS
Reserve Bank of Fiji
54%54%
Source: FIBOS & Macroeconomic Committee
926%926%
300%300%
EXPORTS DRIVEN EXPORTS DRIVEN BY DEMAND BY DEMAND
FACTORSFACTORS
Reserve Bank of Fiji
387448
555
639
718 733 742683
754792
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006(e) 2007(e) 2008(f) 2009(f)
TOURISM EARNINGS
Reserve Bank of Fiji
$M
Source: FIBOS & Macroeconomic Committee
10%10%5%5%
10
2529
4652
68
87
105
122
135
8177
6356
3935
22228
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(f) 2009(f)
Annual
Cumulative to September
Forecast
$M
MINERAL WATER EXPORTS
Reserve Bank of Fiji
10%10%
Source: FIBOS & Macroeconomic Committee
16%16%
5%
377
344
252270
252
142
109 110 111 111
838080
109
188181179
262281
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
320
360
400
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(f) 2009(f)
Annual
Cumulative to September
Forecast
$M
TEXTILES, CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR* EXPORTS
Reserve Bank of Fiji Source: FIBOS & Macroeconomic Committee
*Includes Garments, Textiles and Footwear
4%4%
1%1%
COMMERCIAL BANKS’ PRIVATE SECTOR LENDING
2,4002,4202,4402,4602,4802,5002,5202,5402,5602,5802,6002,6202,6402,6602,6802,7002,720
N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Value Annual Percent Change Credit Ceiling ($2,426m)
9.0%
$M %
2006 2007 2008