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7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/presentationmalaria-eradication-in-the-americas-a-retrospective-analysis-of 1/42
Malaria Eradication in theAmericas: A RetrospectiveAnalysis of Childhood Exp
Hoyt Bleakley
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 2 (April 2010): 1 – 45
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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1 Research question and co
2 Methodology
3 Results
4 Conclusion
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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1 Research question and co
2 Methodology
3 Results
4 Conclusion
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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1 Research question and co
“Does malaria hold back econprogress?”
Is malaria one of the cause ofunderdevelopment?
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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1 Research question and co
“Identify the effect that childhoexposure to malaria eradicatio
on subsequent labor productivan adult.”
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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1 Research question and co
Health context:
Anemia
Lower returns to schooling + shorter tim
educational investmentsWarmer and wetter climate
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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1 Research question and co
Historical context:
Effort against malaria in the Southern U20s
Worlwide malaria eradication in the 50
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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1 Research question and co
Source: Author’s paper
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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1 Research question and co
2 Methodology
3 Results
4 Conclusion
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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2 Methodology
Data (sources):
Census sample (Integrated Public Use
Sample)
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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2 Methodology
Data (sources):
US: Native-born white males, between55, census year 1880-2000, cohorts withof birth ranging from 1825 to 1965.
Brazil and Mexico: native-born males ato 55, censuses from 1960 to 2000, birthfrom 1905 to 1975.
Colombia: native males, censuses of 11993, birth cohorts from 1918 to 1968.
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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2 Methodology
Data (construction):
Area of birth rather than current reside
Intention-to-treat design.
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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2 Methodology
Data (construction):Cohort-level data: average by area o
year of birth and census year
3D panel
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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2 Methodology
Data (use):
Outcomes of interest: Literacy, EducatIncome, Occupational/Sectorial Indic
Income.Malaria variables (malaria mortality as
fraction of total in 1980, different proxie
Controls.
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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2 Methodology
Research design (problem):
Reverse causality: Badinstitutions→Underdevelopment→↑M
decrease productivity→bad institutioTargeted interventions in public healt
Exogenous because innovations comoutside the study area.
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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2 Methodology
Research design (identification
Differences in differences
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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2 Methodology
Research design (identification
Cross-area differences
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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2 Methodology
Source: Author’s paper
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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2 Methodology
Research design (identification
Time differences
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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2 Methodology
Source: Author’s paper
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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2 Methodology
Research design (identification):Time differences:« Born after » vs « already adults » (exposure={0
Y: some socioeconomic outcome for state or municipio j
Mj,pre: pre-program malaria incidence
β: parameter of interest=to which extent a high-incidence of malaprogram (so an intensive program) would lead to an increase in osignification depends on the country, but roughly speaking, it meapercentage change in average income between an area wherecause death – and thus where there is no eradication campaing-where mortality is only due to malaria – and thus intensive eradica
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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2 Methodology
Research design (identification
Time differences:
« Born after » vs « already adults » (exposure
Panel A: Different controls.
Panel B: 2SLS, because of possible measurement-erroproxies of malaria.
Panel C: Comparison between movers and non-mov
Panel D: By region.
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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2 Methodology
Research design (identification
Time differences:
Functional form of childhood exposure (co
Yjkt: average outcome for a cohort of state of birth j, census yof birth k.
Expk : potential exposure to the malaria eradication-campaigmax(min(21,k-(y-21)),0))/21, with y starting year of the eradicacampaign.
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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2 Methodology
Research design (identification
Time differences:
Graphical representation with flexible equa
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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2 Methodology
Research design (identification
To sum it up: Compare the cross-cohoevolution of outcomes across areas widistinct infection rates to assess thecontribution of the eradication campathe observed changes.
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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1 Research question and co
2 Methodology
3 Results
4 Conclusion
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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Pre-post comparisons – United S
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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Pre-post comparisons – United S
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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Pre-post comparisons – United S
Effect on income of 10-15% when comparing malarious states to the highly malarious states
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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Pre-post comparisons – Brazil an
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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Around 0.25 for OLS and 0.45 for 2SLS for earne
Total income for Brazil : around 0.37 for OLS an
2SLS
Pre-post comparisons – Brazil an
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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Pre-post comparisons – Colomb
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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Pre-post comparisons – Colomb
Increase of 5% point in literacy
Increase of 0.1-0.6 in years of schooling
Increase of 0.08-0.16 in log income
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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Pre-post comparisons
Effect on income of (around) :
10-15% for the United States
30% in Brazil
20% in Mexico 22% in Colombia (when adjusted, otherwise 0
tables)
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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Panel estimates : relationship beincome and pre-campaign mal
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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Panel estimates : relationship beincome and pre-campaign mal
Reduced form differences ; 95/5 percentile co:
1) effect on adult income of a given malaria b
2) magnitude of decline due to the eradicatio
campaign
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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Panel estimates : relationship beincome and pre-campaign mal
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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1 Research question and co
2 Methodology
3 Results
4 Conclusion
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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Discussion of the results
Other mechanisms that could have an impact on income
Schooling
Other vector-borne diseases
Mortality selection
Spillovers
Not a real threat to the results !
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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Discussion of the policy implicat
Impact on income inequalities
Potentially very large benefits in region wherestill endemic today
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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Other related papers
Cutler, David, Winnie Fung, Michael Kremer, Monica SinTom Vogl. 2009. “Mosquitoes : the long-term effects of eradication in India”
malaria exposure reduces household expenditures in adulthosmaller magnitude than what would be expected
Lucas, Adrienne M. 2009. “Malaria eradication and edattainment : evidence from Paraguay and Sri Lanka”
more years of schooling for women, while mixed results obtaarticle
7/25/2019 Presentation_Malaria Eradication in the Americas a Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure_Hoyt Bleakley
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Further research
Would be interesting to find a way to include women in
Same study in Sub-Saharian Africa
Among the (new) different ways to fight malaria, which
be the most efficient ?