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PRESENTED TO:CTP 2040 POLICY ADVISORY COMMITTEE
PRESENTED BY:RON WEST AND MICHELLE BINA CAMBRIDGE
SYSTEMATICS
CTP 2040 Scenario Strategies and Analysis
Framework
August 19, 2014
Overview
California Statewide Travel Demand Model (CSTDM)
Scenario strategies Transportation-based changes to reduce GHG
emissions
Analysis framework CSTDM - or - Other methods Distinct policy - or - Aspirational objective
CSTDM Update
CSTDM Update is now complete 2010 base year (plus Year 2010 backcast) Year 2015, 2020, 2035, 2040 and 2050 horizon years
CSTDM System
Models
Travel ModesShort
Distance Personal
Long Distance Personal
Short Distance
Truck
Long Distance
Truck
External Travel
Auto Single Occupant √ √ √
Auto 2 persons √ √ √
Auto 3+ persons √ √ √
Transit (bus & urban rail) √
Bicycle √
Walk √
Air √
Intercity Rail √
Trucks (3 classes) √ √ √
CSTDM Zones and Network (Current Model)
92,000+ nodes
250,000+ links
Multi-modal
5454 internal zones
53 external zones
Contributions to Statewide Travel
Personal TruckExternal TotalShort
DistLong Dist
Short Dist
Long Dist
Total Person Trips 93% 0.20% 7% 0.06% 0.34% 100%
Total Vehicle Trips 88% 0.15% 12% 0.11% 0.30% 100%
Total VMT (Auto/Truck )
79% 10% 3% 2% 6% 100%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total Person Trips Total Vehicle Trips Total VMT
Analysis Framework
Primary objective is to analyze impacts of all strategies using a common metric Reduction in vehicle miles travel
Year 2040 average weekday daily condition
Additional objective is for clear documentation Key input assumptions
Outcomes presented as apples-apples
Analysis Framework Matrix - Examples
Analysis Method:
Policy or Goal?
Specific PolicyAspirational
Objective
California Statewide Travel Demand Model
Road user charge None anticipated
Off-Model ITS elements Eco driving
Off Model Data Sources
MPO Sustainable Community Strategies
ARB policy papers
CAPCOA
Moving Cooler
TCRP 118 (Bus rapid transit)
Data Sources converted to changes in VMT
Pricing Strategies
Road user charge (RUC)
Gas tax
Congestion pricing
Expressed as auto operating costs Function of fuel costs and vehicle efficiency
Pricing – Road User Charge
CSTDM RUC sensitivity tests Year 2010 doubling of auto operating costs
23% VMT decrease (22 cent increase in auto operating costs)
Year 2040 73% increase
17% VMT decrease (16 cent increase)
Year 2040 9% increase
3% VMT decrease (2 cent increase)
Analysis Framework - Pricing
Analysis Method:
Policy or Goal?
Specific PolicyAspirational
Objective
California Statewide Travel Demand Model
• Road User Charge
Off-Model
Transportation Alternatives
Telecommute
Carpoolers
Carsharing
Assessed off-model // aspirational goals
Transportation Alternatives
Carsharing MTC: 1.3% reduction in VMT given 5% increase in
carsharing adoption rates Applied to short distance personal travel model
Converts to 1.1% reduction in total VMT.
SACOG: Lower rate of VMT reduction – 0.12%
Telecommuting SACOG: VMT reduction between 0.13% & 0.39%
Carpooling Under Analysis
Analysis Framework – Transportation Alts
Analysis Method:
Policy or Goal?
Specific PolicyAspirational
Objective
California Statewide Travel Demand Model
Off-Model
Increased: • Telecommute• Carpooling• Carsharing
Mode Shift
Transit improvements
Bicycle improvements
Pedestrian improvements
Carpool changes
Transit and carpool assessed with CSTDM
Bike and walk assessed off-model
Mode Shift - Transit
Analyze high-end 2040 transit alternative Double bus and train service Double operating speeds Reduced or free fares Convert x% of bus routes to BRT Timed transfers Reduced fares on high-speed rail
Will be forecasted using CSTDM Except BRT expansion – Off model
Mode Shift – Bicycle & Pedestrian
Low end Calculate VMT reductions based on value of
investments
High end Assume mode shares are doubled for bike and walk
50% of trips come from auto modes
Average trip lengths: Bike 3.0 miles; Walk 0.25 miles
Results in 0.4% VMT reduction for bike; 0.2% for walk
Mode Shift - Carpools
Raise statewide HOV occupancy to 3+ Draft model result shows 2% reduction in VMT
Additional analysis needed
Add HOV lanes Gap closures
Interregional connectors
Mode run not completed yet
Analysis Framework – Mode Shift
Analysis Method:
Policy or Goal?
Specific PolicyAspirational
Objective
California Statewide Travel Demand Model
• Most Transit Improvements
• Carpools/HOV
Off-Model
• BRT• Bicycling• Walking
Operational Efficiencies
Incident/Emergency management
Caltrans TMS Master Plan
ITS/TSM
Eco-driving
All assessed as off-model policies Except Eco-Driving (off-model aspirational goal)
Analysis Framework – Operational Efficiency
Analysis Method:
Policy or Goal?
Specific PolicyAspirational
Objective
California Statewide Travel Demand Model
Off-Model
• Incident/Emergency management
• Caltrans TMS Master Plan
• ITS/TSM
Eco driving