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Presented to: NAS-Wide Simulation & NextGen workshop
By: Kimberly Noonan, Joseph Post
Date: December 10th, 2008
Federal AviationAdministrationThe Modernized
NASPAC Simulation Environment
Federal AviationAdministration
2The Modernized NASPAC Simulation Environment10 December 2008
Your Father’s NASPAC
• The FAA’s standard system-wide model
• Originally developed in late 1980s
• Represents NAS as network of interconnected queues– Airports– TRACONs– En route sectors
• Discrete-event– SIMSCRIPT II.5– Fortran, C, Pascal pre-processors
• Sun Solaris platform
• Used mainly for investment analysis (i.e., cost-benefit analysis)
National Airspace System Performance Analysis Capability
Federal AviationAdministration
3The Modernized NASPAC Simulation Environment10 December 2008
Legacy NASPAC Environment
TAF = Terminal Area Forecast OAG = Official Airline GuideETMS = Enhanced Traffic Management System
OAG
TAF
TrajectoryBuilder
FixInserter
4DTrajectories
SectorCrossings
SectorEntry/Exit
Times CoreQueuingModel
OutputTraceFiles
SectorCapacities
Airport Capacities
SectorGeometries
FutureDemand
Generator
ETMS Routes
Flow Restrictions
ItineraryPurgeETMS
Federal AviationAdministration
4The Modernized NASPAC Simulation Environment10 December 2008
Objectives of Modernized NASPAC
Make available to more analysts and projects Maintain fast run time Incorporate traditional trajectory module
with fuel burn computation Automate airport weather scheduler Obtain modern, configuration-controlled, documented
source code Produce standard, analyst-friendly, repeatable output Validate• Develop GUI and output visualization tools• Facilitate Monte Carlo simulation
Federal AviationAdministration
5The Modernized NASPAC Simulation Environment10 December 2008
Modernized NASPAC Environment
Wx = weather
TAF = Terminal Area Forecast
MAP = Monitor Alert Parameter
ETMS = Enhanced Traffic Management System
Pareto Curves
MAP Values
Wx
ETMS
Flight Table
Airport Table
Sector Table
TAF
Fleet Evolution
UnconstrainedTraj.-Based
Forecast (2D)
ConstrainedTraj.-Based
Forecast (2D)
JavaTrajectory
Module
4DTrajectories
SectorCrossings
Sector Entry/ExitTimes
CoreQueuingModel
Delay Wx
SectorCapacities
Airport Capacities
UnsatisfiedDemand
CapacityScheduler
Legacy NASPAC
FutureScheduleGenerato
r
Flow Restrictions
OutputParser
ItineraryGeneration
Industry/RegulatoryResponse
WindField
SectorGeometries
Fuel Burn Rate
Δ Fuel Burn
FlightDelays
FleetForecast
Federal AviationAdministration
6The Modernized NASPAC Simulation Environment10 December 2008
Future Traffic Generation
Airport A Airport B
Airport C
Airport D2007ETMS
TAF
Airport A Airport B
Airport C
Airport D2010
Forecast
• FAA airport forecasts are unconstrained– Yield excessive and unrealistic future delays at some airports
• Estimated airport capacities used to constrain traffic growth– Mimic operator and FAA response to large demand and capacity
imbalances– Apply both schedule smoothing and trimming at 110 airports
Federal AviationAdministration
7The Modernized NASPAC Simulation Environment10 December 2008
Itinerary Generation
• Constrained schedule consists of ETMS flight legs– No tail numbers
• Create aircraft itineraries – Link flight legs with same airline and aircraft type– Minimize total fleet size, i.e. number of itineraries – Respect schedule turn time constraints
Min schedule turn time
Flight Leg arriving ATL
ATL
Flight Leg Departing ATL
Flight Leg Departing ATL
A
C
B
Federal AviationAdministration
8The Modernized NASPAC Simulation Environment10 December 2008
Fleet Evolution• Retire and replace aircraft with newer types
– minimize changes across seat-class/engine-type categories
• Consistent with APO and Mitre Fleet Forecast• Domestic passenger and cargo airlines only
Forecast by category (2008)
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
% o
f T
ota
l Fle
et
T<20
T020-049
T050-099
T100-150
J020-049
J050-099
J100-150
J151-210
J211-300
J301-400
J401-500
J500-601
J
Federal AviationAdministration
9The Modernized NASPAC Simulation Environment10 December 2008
Java Trajectory Module
• Aircraft performance – BADA 3.6 tables
• Waypoints / cruise alt. – ETMS flight plan
• Arrival/departure fixes– Assigned to flight path
• Wind data – NCEP/NCAR
Global Reanalysis Model
• 4D track points computed at 1 min. intervals
Federal AviationAdministration
10The Modernized NASPAC Simulation Environment10 December 2008
Airspace Modeled939 airspace elements
Federal AviationAdministration
11The Modernized NASPAC Simulation Environment10 December 2008
OEP AirportsOther Airports
Airports Modeled• All IFR flights touching U.S. airspace are modeled
• Arrival/departure capacities for 110 airports included– All other airports assumed to have infinite capacity
• VFR flights at 73 airports included
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Departures (/hr)
Arr
lival
s (/
hr)
VMC
MMC
IMC
Washington Dulles InternationalAirport Capacities
Federal AviationAdministration
12The Modernized NASPAC Simulation Environment10 December 2008
Output Files
Airport Capacity File (airportc)
ATO-P Input Schedule
pre-configuration File
Sector Capacity File (sector_sim)
sim-configuration File
Arrival Trace File(t_arr)
Arrivals-Departures at Sink Trace File(t_snk)
At-Gate Trace File(t_agt)
Change Parameter File (change_apt)
Cross Arrival Fix-Departure Fix-Restriction Trace File(t_cnd)
Departure Trace File(t_dep)
Enter-Exit Sector Trace File(t_sec)
IFR Trajectories(traject)
JTM Bad Flights File
JTM Flight Map File
JTM Fuel Usage File
JTM Generate Itineraries Schedule
Pushback Trace File(t_pbk)
Flight
File
Airport
File
Sector
File
Oracle
Database
Perl
Scripts
Input Files
Output Files
Federal AviationAdministration
13The Modernized NASPAC Simulation Environment10 December 2008
Metrics• Flights accommodated
– Flight trimming process
• Delay– Gate push-back– Departure runway/fix queuing– Sector queuing– Arrival fix/runway queuing
• Fuel Burn– Origin to Destination– US airspace
• CO2– Jet A savings converted to CO2 using multiplier of 21.095 lb/gal
Federal AviationAdministration
14The Modernized NASPAC Simulation Environment10 December 2008
NASPAC Project Wiki
Federal AviationAdministration
15The Modernized NASPAC Simulation Environment10 December 2008
Validation Process
• Run simulation for eight historical days– Demand variation
• Two days per season (1 weekend, 1 weekday)– Weather variation
• Actual weather used for each day• Distribution of surface and en route weather
• Compute flight time, delay, fuel burn metrics
• Compare validation metrics to observed system response– Ground Truth ≡ ASPM, ASQP, BTS databases– Mean, variance– Pooled, pair-wise statistics
Every new software release validated!
Federal AviationAdministration
16The Modernized NASPAC Simulation Environment10 December 2008
Airborne Delay, Daily Observations
v5d
Airborne Delay, v5d
y = 8E-10x2.0557
y = 4E-09x1.8972
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
Flight Count
Av
g.
Air
bo
rne
De
lay
(m
in) ASPM
NASPAC
Power (NASPAC)
Power (ASPM)
Federal AviationAdministration
17The Modernized NASPAC Simulation Environment10 December 2008
OEP 35 Airports, v5d
y = 0.8636x + 0.6282
R2 = 0.3575
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
0 2 4 6 8 10
NASPAC Airborne Delay (min)
AS
PM
Air
bo
rne
Del
ay (
min
)
Airborne Delay, OEP Airports
19 Oct. 2006 v5d
ORD
FLL
Federal AviationAdministration
18The Modernized NASPAC Simulation Environment10 December 2008
Taxi-Out Delay, Daily Observations
v5d
Taxi-Out Delay, v5d
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
Flight Count
Av
g.
Ta
xi-
Ou
t D
ela
y (
min
)
ASPM
NASPAC
Federal AviationAdministration
19The Modernized NASPAC Simulation Environment10 December 2008
Push-Back Delay
v5d
Push-Back Delay, v5d
y = 3.1782x + 4.1314
R2 = 0.0429
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
NASPAC Avg. Push-Back Delay (min)
AS
PM
Avg
. Pu
sh-B
ack
Del
ay (
min
)
Federal AviationAdministration
20The Modernized NASPAC Simulation Environment10 December 2008
ETE Distributions, 19 Oct. 2006
v5d
ETE Distribution, v5d
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
25 50 75 100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
425
450
475
500
Estimated Time En Route (min)
Fre
qu
en
cy
(%)
NASPAC/JTM
ASPM
Federal AviationAdministration
21The Modernized NASPAC Simulation Environment10 December 2008
Airport Arrival Rate, 19 Oct. 2006
Charlotte-Douglas International Airport v5d
CLT Arrival Rates, 10/19/06, v5d
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Local Hour (EDT)
Arr
iva
ls (
pe
r 1
5 m
in.
ep
oc
h)
NASPAC
ASPM
Federal AviationAdministration
22The Modernized NASPAC Simulation Environment10 December 2008
Fuel BurnDomestic Commercial Flights 1 10,843,220 Domestic Commercial Flights 3 10,563,035
Fuel 4
Nominal Taxi Out (gal) 310,763,808 2.3%
Excess Taxi Out (gal) 50,646,405 0.4%
Nominal Airborne (gal) 12,742,782,169 93.6%
Excess Airborne (gal) 315,232,694 2.3%
Nominal Taxi In (gal) 116,787,683 0.9%
Excess Descent (gal) 82,043,414 0.6%
Actual Fuel: Total 2 13,594,891,330 Model Fuel: Total 13,618,256,172 100.0%
Fuel per Flight
Nominal Taxi Out (gal / flt) 29 2.3%
Excess Taxi Out (gal / flt) 5 0.4%
Nominal Airborne (gal / flt) 1,206 93.6%
Excess Airborne (gal / flt) 30 2.3%
Nominal Taxi In (gal / flt) 11 0.9%
Excess Descent (gal / flt) 5 7.8 0.6%
Actual Fuel: per Flight 1,254 Model Fuel: per Flight 1,289.2 100.0%
Notes:
1. Sum total of revenue departures in domestic service, reported by U.S. carriers filing DOT Form 41, Table T-1
2. Gallons of fuel used in domestic service, reported by U.S. carriers filing DOT Form 41, Table P-12a
3. Domestic flights, excluding the categories of "Fractional / Business", "GA", and "Military"
4. Nominal fuel use taken from ATO's JTM trajectory modeler.
Excess fuel used on taxi and enroute derived by multiplying minutes of NASPAC delays times BADA or ICAO fuel burn
Excess fuel used on descent taken from estimates of below-cruise vertical holding on domestic flights arriving at the OEP 35 airports
5. Excess minutes per flight on descent is the ratio of the excess time at the OEP airports to the number of total domestic flights.
FY 2007 Actual Fuel Usage FY 2007 Modeled Fuel Usage
2.8% diff.
Federal AviationAdministration
23The Modernized NASPAC Simulation Environment10 December 2008
Conclusions
• Modernized model runs much faster, accessible to more users, and easier to use
• Deterministic trajectory model provides easy means of specifying flight trajectories– Uses standard Eurocontrol BADA data– Fuel burn computation integrated into trajectory model– Accommodates wind field– Achieves good accuracy in nominal flight time and fuel burn
• Airborne delays close to observed values
• Surface delays appear underestimated
Federal AviationAdministration
24The Modernized NASPAC Simulation Environment10 December 2008
Next Steps
• Evolve International carrier fleet
• Enhance airport capacity model– Incorporate additional airport pareto curves based on
alternative configurations and/or wind conditions
• Improve taxi-out delay– Update departure fix en trail constraints
• Incorporate Traffic Flow Management (TFM)– Ground Delay Programs
• Include Monte Carlo simulation capability
• Validation, validation, validation
Federal AviationAdministration
25The Modernized NASPAC Simulation Environment10 December 2008
Questions?