Upload
shavonne-horton
View
217
Download
2
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Presenter: Ishar Sawhney
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.1
CLO & Distressed Investment Professional – Marathon Asset ManagementPrior Experiences include:•Founder – LeverageAcademy.com•Founder – MarketRealist.com•SPP Hambro Mezzanine Fund – Mezzanine Investing•Brookside Private Equity – PE & Mezzanine•Moelis – Investment Banking/Restructuring•Bank of America Merrill Lynch – Leveraged Finance•GE Capital – Structured Products•HedgEye – Healthcare Equity Research•KLD Research – Asset Allocation Analyst•Batterymarch Quant Fund – Risk•Legg Mason – Risk & Infrastructure•Citigroup – Infrastructure•ZepInvest.com – Business Development
Ethics – The Most Important Slide
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.2
This is not just about the dangers of insider trading….but
…understanding that…
1.We are managing the tuition and benefits to future Boston University Students.
2.Our performance will determine how the business school is perceived.
3.We have a fiduciary duty to maximize return and minimize losses.
4.The difference between sustainable and repeatable returns vs. short-term gains and speculation.
Balance Sheet
o Separated into three main categories: Assets, Liabilities and Equity
Assets = Liabilities + Equity
oAssets – What you have
oLiabilities – What you owe
oEquity – What you own
oEach line item of the Balance Sheet is organized by liquidity and shows “at one point in time” picture
Assets: Main Line Items
o Separated into Current Assets & Long-Term Assets
Current assets are resources that will be turned into cash within a year
Main Current Asset Items: •Cash & Cash Equivalents•Receivables •Inventories•Deferred Income/Prepaid Expenses
Liabilities: Main Line Items
o Separated into Current & Long-Term Liabilities
Current liabilities are items that must be paid off within one year
Main Current Liabilities: •Accounts Payable•Current Portion of Long-Term Debt•Notes Payable
Total Equity: Main Line Items
o Separated into Shareholders’ Equity & Noncontrolling Interest
Main Shareholders’ Equity Items: •Common Stock•Additional Paid-In Capital•Retained Earnings
Income Statement
o Flows in a organized order Revenue Cost of Goods Sold Net Income Earnings per Share
Shows a company’s performance over time, generally one quarter or one fiscal year
Statement of Cash Flows
Cash Flow Statement: Operations
Cash Flow Statement: Investing
Cash Flow Statement: Financing
oTracks the cash position resulting from operations involving external financing such as loans, dividends, equity issuances and debt issuances
oExamples of Cash Flow from Financing Line Items:Issuance of StockΔ in Notes PayableRepurchase of Treasury Stock
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.12
Where to find 10-K’s, 10-Q’s and other filings
Company Webpage Third-Party Websites SEC.gov / Edgar Online
Accessed with investor relations
• Easy path
• Will find other resources:
• Earnings calls
• Analyst presentations
• Important announcements
Accessed under their filings “tab”
• Easy Access
• These resources will often provide additional information
• Bloomberg
• Morning Star
• Yahoo! Finance
http://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch.html
• Very straightforward
• May need additional information
• Can find public debt of private co’s.
• Can search by SIC, State, Country
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.13
SEC Filings, Option #1: Company Webpage
1 2
1. Locate the company webpage
2. Find the investor relations “tab”
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.14
SEC Filings, Option #1: Company Webpage
3
• Company Overview
• Current Stock Information
• Quarterly Earnings Material
• SEC Filings
• Corporate Governance
• Upcoming Events
• Email Alerts
• FAQs
• Nuance Investor Contacts
Always be on the lookout for other important
information:
•“Notice of Ability to Convert 2.75%...”
•“Discussion of Non-GAAP Financial…”
3. Identify SEC Filings Section
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.15
SEC Filings, Option #1: Company Webpage
4
4. Locate 10-K’s & 10-Q’s
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.16
SEC Filings, Option #2: Third-Party Website
1
1. Search for a company using the website
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.17
SEC Filings, Option #2: Third-Party Website
22. Identify “SEC Filings” or “Filings” Section
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.18
SEC Filings, Option #2: Third-Party Website
3 3. Locate 10-K’s & 10-Q’s
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.19
SEC Filings, Option #3: SEC.gov
1. Go to http://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch.html
1
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.20
SEC Filings, Option #3: SEC.gov
2. Enter company name or ticker
OR Narrow a search by country and SIC code (to find potential comps)
2
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.21
SEC Filings, Option #3: SEC.gov
3
3. Locate 10-K’s & 10-Q’s
Extra: How to find the SIC, NAICS, ISIC code?
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.22
1. Use Morningstar.com
2. Search for your company
3. Go to “Company Profile” under “Quote”
4. Scroll down…
How to Organize and Store your 10-K, 10-Q
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.23
Use a convention that is useful for you:
Use Dropbox (to share, and save space on yourpersonal computer).
Usually in order of importance•TICKER (NUAN) – might be superfluous•YEAR – Very important •Filing type •Month & Day (if necessary)
Analyzing the 10-K: Business Description
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.24
• Includes:
• Overview – general description of the business
• Segment Operations – description of each business segment
• Research & Development (R&D)
• International Operations
• Competition
• Employees
• Company Information
Analyzing the 10-K: Business Description, Overview
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.25
• Includes:
• General business description
• Discussion of distribution channels and revenue generation
• Breakdown of revenue by segments
• Useful for comparing between competitors to see if they are in the same business or if they define themselves in a similar fashion
Analyzing the 10-K: Business Description, Segment Operations
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.26
• Includes:
• General segment description
• Discussion of distribution channels and revenue generation
• Sometimes breakdown of revenue by products or customers
• Historical trend of revenue, clients, or product mix
• Sometimes includes customer list, supplier list
• Companies that have the same or similar suppliers or customers can be comparable businesses
• Important for understanding revenue generation and supply chain
Analyzing the 10-K: Business Description, Research & Development (R&D)
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.27
• Includes:
• General description of research
• Discussion of recent R&D expenses
• Number of patents / touting intellectual property
• Sometimes discussion of scientists or research facilities
Analyzing the 10-K: Business Description, International Operations
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.28
• Includes:
• General description international exposure
• Revenue breakdown by geography
• Historical trend of geographic breakdown
Analyzing the 10-K: Business Description, Competition
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.29
• Includes:
• General discussion of markets that they compete in
• Listing competitors (possibly comparable companies)
• Explanation of competitive advantage (sometimes)
Analyzing the 10-K: Business Description, Employees
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.30
• Includes:
• General discussion of employees
• Listing number of employees and segmented by division, function, or location
• Discussion of unions, pensions or bargaining agreements
Analyzing the 10-K: Business Description, Employees
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.31
• Includes:
• Information regarding the companies incorporation, ticket symbol, any possible name changes, etc.
• Information about the company website and SEC filings
Analyzing the 10-K: Risk Factors
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.32
• Includes:
• Overview – general description of risk factors
• Risk Factors Related to our Business
• RFR to our Intellectual Property & Technology
• RFR to our Corporate Structure
• RFR to our Organization
• RFR to our Common Stock
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.33
Analyzing the 10-K: Risk Factors, Overview
• Includes:
• Statement of downside risk for investors
• Common across companies
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.34
Analyzing the 10-K: Risk Factors, Related to our Business
• Includes:
• Operating results fluctuation
• Industry Specific Regulation risk
• Dilution of earnings to existing shareholders
• Acquisition synergy risk
• FOREX Risk
• Bankruptcy/Debt related risk
• Industry cyclical, seasonal and overall risk
• Economic, Political, Legal, Social and International risk
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.35
Analyzing the 10-K: Risk Factors, Related to our Intellectual Property & Technology
• Includes:
• Litigation Risk
• Copyright, trademark, brand infringement
• Problems with Software implementation and bugs
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.36
Analyzing the 10-K: Risk Factors, Related to Corporate Structure, Organization and Common Stock
• Includes:
• Single Investor / Entity Controlling risk
• Liquidity risk in common stock
• Compliance with corporate governance and disclosure regulation
• Anti-takeover provisions
• New common stock offerings
• Common across companies
Analyzing the 10-K: Management’s Discussion & Analysis (MD&A)
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.37
• Includes:
• Forward looking statements clause
• Overview of performance (historical)
• Overview of strategy (forward looking)
• Key metrics
• Results of operations & annual comparison
• Costs and expenses & annual comparison
• Discussion of Acquisitions & annual comparison
• Segment Analysis & annual comparison
• Liquidity & Capital Resources & annual comparison
• Credit facilities & debt
• Off-balance sheet arrangements
• Contingent liabilities
• Financial Instruments & pension plans
Analyzing the 10-K: MD&A, Overview
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.38
• Includes:
• Includes additional detail from business description
• Offers management commentary as to how or why things occurred
• Very important for understanding the business
• May provide year end assumptions, and will help you forecast
Analyzing the 10-K: MD&A, Strategy
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.39
• Includes:
• Insight into potential acquisition targets
• Changes in product mix
• Changes in technological focus
• Changes in segment prioritization
• Very important for understanding the business
• May provide year end assumptions, and will help you forecast
Analyzing the 10-K: MD&A, Key Metrics
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.40
• Includes:
• Metrics from the financial statements (boiler plate)
• Non-GAAP metrics (may be useful for understanding management’s focus)
• Non-financial metrics: industry growth, market penetration, values of contracts, etc.
• Important financial / operational / accounting ratios
Analyzing the 10-K: MD&A, Results of Operations
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.41
• Includes:
• Revenue generation and expense allocation by division, segment, function or geography
• Breakdown of purchase price allocation for significant mergers
• Compares most recent fiscal year to year prior
• Cites explanation for changes in specific metrics
• i.e. prices went up 5%, volume was down 3%, netting in a sales increase
Analyzing the 10-K: MD&A, Segment Analysis
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.42
• Includes:
• Extensive description of each segment, and partial P&L for each segment
• Relevant when there is a change of reported operating segments
Analyzing the 10-K: MD&A, Segment Analysis
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.43
• Includes:
• Extensive description of each segment, and partial P&L for each segment
• Relevant when there is a change of reported operating segments
Analyzing the 10-K: MD&A, Liquidity & Capital Resources
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.44
• Includes:
• Amount of debt raised, type of debt, when it was raised, how much it costs, and why it was raised
• Comparison with fiscal year prior,
• Credit facilities & debt elaborates on reasoning for debt
• Will help predict how the company will respond to a near-term maturity of debt
• Breakdown of off-balance sheet arrangements, and payment due for contractual obligations
• Contingent liabilities – debt incurred if XYZ occurs
• Financial instruments shows what the company is hedged against
Debt Maturity
Key Points•Can the company pay maturing debt?•What is the interest rate charged on those debt
– Used for discounted cash flow valuation
Capital Structure and Seniority
1.Senior
2.Senior subordinated
3.Mezzanine
•Revolving credit •Libor•Credit ratings: S&P and Moody’s•Secured and unsecured (collateralized or not)
– Non-recourse– Limited-recourse– Full-recourse
Notes on Debt
Maturing Debt Schedule
Leases & Effect on the Financial Statements
Operating Lease•Balance sheet: off-balance sheet item
– Debit: NA– Credit: NA
•Income statement: lease reported as rental expense on the financial statement– Debit: rental expense– Credit: cash
Capital Lease•Balance sheet: leases are capitalized as asset
– Debit: fixed asset account– Credit: capital lease liability
•Income statement: the asset will be depreciated over the term of use– Debit: capital lease liability, interest expense and depreciation expense– Credit: cash and accumulated depreciation
Operating & Capital Leases
Companies have strong incentives to record as operating lease. •Operating leases are an off-balance sheet item•Capital Leases increases liabilities and assets
– Negative effects on certain leverage (e.g. debt to equity) and return (e.g. return on assets) ratios
Capital lease if any of the following is met:
1. If lease life exceeds 75% of life of the asset
2.If there is a transfer of ownership to the lessee at the end of the lease term
3.If there is an option to purchase the asset at a “bargain price” at the end of the lease
4.If the present value of the lease payments, discounted at an appropriate discount rate, exceeds 90% of the fair market value of the asset
Adjustments•Discount future operating lease obligations back to the present using appropriate discount rate•Approximate discount rate: using the firm’s current pre-tax cost of debt as the discount rate (perhaps even higher) — best: marginal cost of debt
Pensions
Defined Contribution Plan •Contribution (input) is defined •Retirement withdraw (output) based on investment performance •Accounting
– Will not remain on the balance sheet – Debit: Pension expense– Credit: Cash or pension liability
Defined Benefit Plan •Contribution (input) may vary based on investment return•Benefits (output) defined based on formula
– Factors include salary history and duration of employment
•Accounting– Projected benefit obligation (liability)– Planned asset (asset) – Company only shows the net difference on financial statement
• If planned asset > projected benefit obligation, then the company records net asset • If planned asset < projected benefit obligation, then the company records net liability
Pensions
Simplified Comparable Company Analysis
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.52
Evaluates value using common sized metrics and ratios of companies of similar size in the same industry.
Focuses on creating a benchmark for the industry which the company will be valued on.
Find the right competitors is important. It can be done in several ways, and there is no correct answer to who their competitors are.
On the right Sal’s Pizza is used the industry.
Sal’s Pizza Co.Valued at $100,000
2010 EBITDA: $50,0002010 Earnings: $10,000
Enterprise Value / Sales (EV/EBITDA) = 2x
EV/ Net Income = 10x
University Grill, Inc.2011 EBITDA: $40,0002011 Earnings: $7,000
Using the established ratios or multiples…
Implied Valuation: 2x EBITDA = $80,000Implied Valuation: 10x Net Income =
$70,000
How to identify competitors
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.53
Standard Industrial Classification Third-party Website
http://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/
companysearch.html
• Will find other resources on competitors
• 10-Q’s, 10-K’s
• Used by the SEC
Accessed under their Competitor tab
• Sectors are different from SIC
• Gives a financial snapshot of competitors
• Yahoo Finance is one example
Investext
Accessed in the Pardee library
• Gives you access to analyst reports
• Will give you the competitors that the
Street uses
DisclaimerEven though these methods provides you with companies that are in the same industry they are not always direct competitors. Other factors to take into consideration is revenue generation, size, geographic location etc.
Competitors, Option #1: Standard Industrial Classification
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.54
1. Look up your company on Edgar
Competitors, Option #1: Standard Industrial Classification
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.55
2. Find the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) and go back to the previous page
Competitors, Option #1: Standard Industrial Classification
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.56
3. Look up the SIC code, and see the results
Competitors, Option #1: Standard Industrial Classification
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.57
4. Find competitors
Competitors, Option #2: Third-Party Websites
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.58
1. Look up the company on site
Competitors, Option #2: Third-Party Websites
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.59
2. Identify the Competitors tab
Competitors, Option #2: Third-Party Websites
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.60
3. Look for competitors
Competitors, Option #3: Investext
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.61
1. Look up your company on Investext
Competitors, Option #3: Investext
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.62
2. Choose research from the menu
Competitors, Option #3: Investext
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.63
3. Choose the report you want and click view
Competitors, Option #3: Investext
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.64
4. Select all to retrieve the entire report. Then click view
Competitors, Option #3: Investext
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.65
5. Use the competitor from the report as a reference.
Sample Industry Comparable – Healthcare
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.66
Forward PE to PE
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.67
The Price to Earnings ratio (Share price/Earnings per share) is one of the most used comparable. It shows you how many dollars people are willing to pay for $1 of earnings.
One issue with PE is that it is calculated using historical earnings. Using historical earnings does not display the growth of the company.
This can corrected by using the Forward PE multiple. It uses the estimated 1-year EPS instead of historical earnings. (Share price/1-year forward EPS).
Now we have a measure of how much people are willing to pay for $1 of future earnings.
PE varies from industry to industry, so finding the right competitors is important.
Look at difference in Forward PE and PE
Trailing twelve months (ttm)
© Leverage Academy 2009. All rights reserved.68
Trailing twelve months is the company’s performance over the twelve months before their last filing.
Ttm is calculated to show a more recent picture of the financials of the company. Since the quarterly reports does not include, the full year so it might be skewed because of seasonality or events.
This is not done for the balance sheet, since the balance sheet only reflects one point in time.
You calculate ttm by adding their performance in their latest quarter, you add their last full year performance and then subtract out last years corresponding quarter.
Ttm calculation
Most Recent Quarter(s) + Most Recent Year – Last years Corresponding Quarter(s)
IncomeTtm 4 + 10 - 1 = 13
How to calculate ttmQ1 2012
$4 $102011 Q1 2011
$1