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Presenter: James L. MorrisonDate: March 16, 1998
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Anticipating the Future of Higher Education
SCT SUMMIT 98

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Objectives:What are the signals of change that will affect higher education in the 21st Century?How can we respond?I will be your strategic intelligence officer
Introduction

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Strategic Intelligence
Identify signals of changeGather informationEvaluate informationMake decisions to shape the future

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Agenda
The tool: Environmental scanningThe analysis: Change driversThe data: social, economic, technologicalThe implications

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Change Drivers
The Maturation of AmericaThe Mosaic SocietyGlobalizationEconomic RestructuringInformation Technology

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Older Americans to Experience Fastest Growth (1990 to 2000)
Source: US. Bureau of the Census

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Distribution of US. Population by Race and Origin (1900-2050)
Source: Business Horizons

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Immigration
Between 1970 and 2000 New York Citys population will shift from 2/3 white to 1/3In 1970, 5%of U.S. residents born elsewhere; in 1996, 10% Top sources: Mexico, the Philippines, China, Cuba, India

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The Enrollment Pipeline
source: WICHE
'79
'82
'85
'88
'91
'94
'97
'00
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
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We Are Here!
High School Graduates, 1979-2004

(millions of students)

2004

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An Aging Clientele for Higher Education

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Impact of Continuing Education for the Workforce
Source: Michael Dolence AACRAO 1997
Today3613 institutions16 million students$156b in operations
Workforce Statistics141 million workers1/7 require 7 credit equivalents/year
Tomorrow (2000)672 new campuses20 million new learners$235b to build$217b/year to operate

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Supply and Demand
Resources Available
Demand for Education
Time
Learners

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Implications
An increasingly diverse societyIncreasing student enrollmentAn aging student populationConcern about costs/productivityA disparity between supply and demand

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Economic
GlobalizationEconomic RestructuringDownsizing

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Globalization
Movement of capital, products, technology, information continue at record paceGlobal economyRegional free tradeMultinational corporationsEconomic competition increaseMust be able to function in a global economy for job success in the 21st century

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Economic
Continued organizational downsizingcorporategovernmentaleducationalVirtual companiesOutsourcingIncreased number of home-based businessesResponsibility-centered management

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Percent of Firms Downsizing by Business Category
Source: Chicago Tribune, August 21, 1995

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During the decade of the 80s, 46% of the companies listed in the Fortune 500 disappeared.

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The Department of Labor estimates that by the year 2000 at least 44% of all workers will be in data services (e.g., gathering, processing, retrieving, or analyzing information).

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From 1980 to 1994, the U.S. contingent workforcetemps, self-employed, consultantsincreased 57%

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Fading are the 9-5 workdays, lifetime jobs, predictable, hierarchical relationships, corporate culture security blankets, and, for a large and growing sector of the workforce, the workplace itself (replacedby a cybernetics workspace).

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Constant training, retraining, job-hopping, and even career-hopping will become the norm.

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Today, 65% of all workers use some type of information technology in their jobs. By 2000, this will increase to 95%.

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Implications
GlobalizationEconomic Restructuring

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Technology

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Students can no longer prepare bark to calculate problems. They depend instead on expensive slates. What will they do when the slate is dropped and breaks?

Teachers Conference, 1703

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Students depend on paper too much. They no longer know how to write on a slate without getting dust all over themselves. What will happen when they run out of paper?Principals Association Meeting, 1815

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Students depend too much upon ink. They no longer know how to use a knife to sharpen a pencil.

National Association of Teachers, 1907

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Students depend too much on store bought ink. They dont know how to make their own. What will happen when they run out?

Rural American Teacher, 1928

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You dont turn it on. You open it and turn the pages.

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What Lies Ahead in Technology
DiminutionSimulationsVirtual RealityWWWLow-Earth-Orbit Satellites Web TVNet PCExpert Systems

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The cost of computing power drops roughly 30% every year, and microchips are doubling in performance power every 18 months.

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You give the birthday kid a Saturn, made by Sega, the gamemaker. It runs on a higher-performance processor than the original 1976 Cray supercomputer.

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Todays average consumers wear more computing power on their wrists than existed in the entire world before 1961.

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In 1991, companies spent more money on computing and communications gear than the combined monies spent on industrial, mining, farm, and construction equipment.

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Today, 65% of all workers use some type of information technology in their jobs. By 2000, this will increase to 95%.

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I very much doubt that were the only family on the block without a Web page.

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Signals of Change On the Horizon

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Signals
Educational courses and programs are being produced by corporationsCable and phone companies are consolidating to provide interactive multimedia programming

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Signals
A third of Americans have a computer in the home; 40% of these have modemsAn increasing number of students want and need non-traditional, flexible schedules

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Signals
Certification monopoly at riskemployers concerned about competencyemployers relying less on diplomasOutcomes assessment coming on line--Western Governors University

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Signals
Job guarantee programsUniv Miami engineeringSt. John Fisher CollegeUniv Missouri-Rolla

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Signals
Transition from learned infrastructure to learning infrastructureTransition from distance learning to distributed learning

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Signals
Cyber-Universities1993: 93 1997: 762

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What do these signals imply for effective organization and functioning of leading edge institutions in the 21st century?

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Summary
Every day seems to bring the dawn of a new era To anticipate the future, we must identify signals of changeTo shape our future, we must interpret and act on these signals

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Maturation of America. Population, shift from a youth orientation to aging. Political activism pragmatic; workforce growth slows; more mature workers, challenged by technology and changing job conditions. More middle aged will start own firms as opportunities become limited or due to downsizing.The Mosiac Society. diversity, polarized, tense. Women and minorities in multicultural, multilingual workforce; child care, flexible work hours. Minorities seek greater pol influence commensurate with numbers.Redefinition of Individual and societal roles. Shift in responsibility between societal sectors and indiv/org. Ed reform emphasize decentralization of authority (school based mgt); wellness--from problem-based care to personal resp for living right; fiscal resp from fed to states; privatization; greater focus on individual self-sufficiency, less reliance on inst; corporate downsizing& reduction of bureaucracy. Need flexible workforce that can adapt to market influences. Information-based economy. Cont advances in technology; customization; video, audio, and daa transmission with fiber optic phone system. Mobile. Globalization. EU, regional free trade, movement of products, capital, tech, info; migration; prosperity dependent on trade and well-being of other nations; global competition; ldrshp in science and tech det economic leadership.Economic Restructuring. Transformation result of global ec competition, dereg, changing tech, diverse and changing consumer tastes; downsizing accelerated; increase in low skilled jobs, home-based workers, satellite offices.Personal and Environmental Health.

Box 1 (upper left) Today: we are supporting 16 m students, costing blah blah blah Box 2 (lower box) Workforce Analysts predict that there will be over 141 million workers in the workforce by the year 2000. In order for these workers to maintain their basic employment skills in the information age, they will require the equivalent of 30credit hours every 7 years. Thus, there will be approximately 20 million (141/7 years) new learners seeking learning opportunities every year.Box 3 (upper right) In order to support this many new learners in our current environment, it would require blah blah blah. In order to meet this demand one institution would need to open every eight days.
John Hall, general manager of Quiltiles Scotland ltd, does contract research for pharmacetical companies. These companies hire him for their research and development. Company was founded in 1983 by 5 stat folks. Now has 6,400 employees, grown in excess of 50% in last 6 years; profit every year.38% of US households have at least one person doing income generating work at home.less hierarchy; more partnering, less capital investment

New management: entrepreneurial units--link expenses and revenues. Empowerment. Penn, Indiana, Michigan. Called Responsibility Centered Management., Value Centered Management.
This was a report of a 1994 American Management Study of 713 major U.S. Companies.

Over the past five years, 2/3sof US companies haveundergone downsizing (16.7 milion jobs cut since 1991). American Management Association annual survey reports that nearly 30% of employers plan to eliminate jobs this year, the highest percentagein the surveys 8 year history. Typically, the number of firms that actually make cuts is double the number of those that say they will.Friedman, Jill. Four Questions to Ask Before Accepting a Buyout. Working Woman, October 1996, pp 25-26.
TELECOMMUTER RANKS EXPANDINGA study released Wednesday by Telecommute America, a public/privatetelecommuting advocacy group, says the number of U.S. telecommuters hassurged 30% in the past two years, to 11 million. That doesn't count thepeople who work at home full-time but have no corporate office. Meanwhile,one in four Fortune 1,000 companies now have employees who telecommuteeither part- or full-time, according to a study released this week by KPMG.(Tampa Tribune 3 Jul 97)
Reskilling is become a requirement. By the year 2000, 75% of thecurrent workforce will need to be retrined just to keep up. Am Society for Training and Development.
MAC RAMPS UP TO 300-MHZApple has taken the wraps off its new Power Mac 6500 -- an "entry-level"model boasting the first-ever 300-MHz PowerPC 603e microprocessor. Othermodels use chips running at 225, 250 and 275 MHz. "We've been lookingforward to these models," says Mac retailer. The 300-MHz machine will runabout $2,999 and will come complete with 64 Mbytes of RAM, a 4-Gbyte harddisk and a Zip drive. (MacWeek 4 Apr 97)
Internet (upper case I) The vast collection of inter-connected networks that all use the TCP/IP protocols and that evolved from the ARPANET of the late 60's and early '70s. The Internet now (July 1995) connects roughly 60,000 independent networks into a vast global internet.BITNET (Because It's Time Network) -- A network of educational sites separate from the Internet, but e-mail is freely exchanged between BITNET and the Internet. Listservs, the most popular form of e-mail discussion groups, originated on BITNET. BITNET machines are IBM VMS machines, and the network is probably the only international network that is shrinking.Yellow Countries--Green Countries--Guatemala, Cuba, Bolivia, ParaguayRed Countries--Saudi Arabia, Azerbijan?

INTERNET USAGE HAS DOUBLEDA study by CommerceNet and Nielsen Media Research concludes that Internetuse has more than doubled in the last 18 months, from 10% to 23% of allpersons in the U.S. and Canada over age 16. A Nielsen executive says: "Notthat long ago, the people using the Web tended to be a rather homogeneousgroup -- young, upscale and rather well educated. The big gains that we'reseeing now are coming from outside that group." (Washington Post 13 Mar 97)\

NET STATSDid you know that Chrysler expects that 25% of its sales in 2001 will beconducted online (only 1.5% are online currently)? Or that the estimatednumber of new jobs worldwide created in 1996 by the Internet was 1.1million? Or that the estimated total Internet advertising revenues in 1996were $266.9 million? (Internet Index 16 Apr 97)http://www.openmarket.com/intindex/
Learning infrastructure: open democratic, use of technology to extent the boundaries; increase access to our resources, our instructional resources not just our library resources. Use the network to deliver instruction to new educational markets, nontraditional students. People do not have to come to campus to get an education. Without diminishing quality in the process. Maintain if not improve quality
These colleges are ensuring that their graduates are job ready; or they pay up.St. John Fisher: Rochester, NY. Will pay graduates up to $5,000 if they cant find professional jobs. Applies to all students who maintain B- average, m and complete internshipsUniv. Missorui-Rolla: free year of grad school. if graduates can get grown-up jobs.U Miami engineering grads--free grad school tuition worth $17,000.In the past 15 years, tuition costs jumped 90% while family income inched up 9%. Roots of tuition growth: campus technology explosion, building booms, and unwillingness of universities to restructure inefficient operations.

USA Today, Sept 26,1997, p. 14A
Four years ago Peterson's "Distance Learning" guide counted 93"cyberschools" where students could earn degrees without setting footon campus. In 1997, the list had grown to 762. In "I Got My DegreeThrough E-Mail" [June 16, 1997 issue of FORBES], Lisa Gubernick andAshlea Ebeling chart the rise of virtual colleges and summarize thereasons why the number of students who choose non-traditional paths togetting an education is increasing dramatically. The authors presentviewpoints ranging from economists who hail cyberschools as the bestsolution for college education, to advocates for the superiority ofin-residence programs. A list of Forbes' top 20 cyber-universities,along with Web links, is included in the article.The article is available online athttp://www.forbes.com/forbes/97/0616/5912084a.htm
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