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Presidential Elections
The people who cast the votes do not decide an election, the people who count the votes do.
-- Joseph Stalin (1879 - 1953)
Presidential Elections
How are candidates “nominated?”
The “Rhythm” of the Race” How are candidates “elected?” The Winning Strategy
How Are Candidates Nominated?
I don't care who does the electing just so long as I do the nominating.
--“Boss” William M. TweedTammany Hall, 1858-1871
McGovern-Fraser Commission
Officially known as the Commission on Party Structure and Delegate Selection (1968)
Published a report called Mandate for Reform (1970)
Recommended delegate selection procedures to be open (i.e. not secret)
Recommended proportional representation of underrepresented groups
Votes Cast in Presidential Primaries, 1912-2000
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,00019
12
1920
1928
1936
1944
1952
1960
1968
1976
1984
1992
2000
"Sources: 1912–1996: Congressional Quarterly’s Presidential Elections 1789–1996, 141; 2000: derived by the editors from Rhodes Cook, Race for the Presidency: Winning the 2000 Nomination, and CQ Weekly, “GOP Convention Guide,” July 29, 2000, 1866 ff., “Democratic Convention Guide,” August 12, 2000, 27 ff."
The Bellwether Primaries, 2008January 3: Iowa caucusesJanuary 5: Wyoming (R) caucusesJanuary 8: New Hampshire primaryJanuary 15: Michigan primaryJanuary 19: Nevada caucuses South Carolina (R) primaryJanuary 26: South Carolina (D) primaryJanuary 29: Florida primary
Bellwether Primaries, 2008
Candidate Bellwether Primaries Super Tuesday
Hillary ClintonNew Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, Florida
Barack Obama
Iowa, South Carolina
Mike HuckabeeIowa
John McCainNew Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida
Mitt RomneyWyoming, Michigan, Nevada, Maine
Delegates Chosen by March 15, 1976-2004
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
The Battleground Primaries, 2008
January 3: Iowa caucusesJanuary 5: Wyoming (R) caucusesJanuary 8: New Hampshire primaryJanuary 15: Michigan primaryJanuary 19: Nevada caucuses South Carolina (R) primaryJanuary 26: South Carolina (D) primaryJanuary 29: Florida primaryFebruary 1: Maine (R) caucusesFebruary 5 Alaska caucuses, Alabama primary, Arizona primary, Arkansas primary,
California primary, Colorado caucuses, Connecticut primary, Delaware primary, Georgia primary, Idaho (D) caucuses, Illinois primary, Kansas (D) caucuses, Massachusetts primary, Minnesota caucuses, Missouri primary, New Jersey primary, New Mexico (D) caucuses, New York primary, North Dakota caucuses, Oklahoma primary, Tennessee primary, Utah primary
February 9: Kansas (R) caucuses, Louisiana primary, Nebraska (D) caucusesFebruary 10: Maine (D) caucusesFebruary 12: District of Columbia primary, Maryland primary, Virginia primaryFebruary 19: Hawaii (D) caucuses, Washington primary, Wisconsin primaryMarch 4: Ohio primary, Rhode Island primary, Texas primary, Vermont primaryMarch 8: Wyoming (D) caucusesMarch 11: Mississippi primary
Super Tuesday Primaries, 2008
Candidate Bellwether Primaries Super Tuesday
Hillary ClintonNew Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, Florida
Arkansas, Arizona, California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee
Barack Obama
Iowa, South Carolina Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, New Mexico*, North Dakota, Utah
Mike HuckabeeIowa Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia,
Tennessee, West Virginia
John McCainNew Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida
Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma
Mitt RomneyWyoming, Michigan, Nevada, Maine
Alaska, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Utah
The Rhythm of the Race
Invisible Primary Bellwether Primaries Battleground Primaries Bridge Primaries
The Rhythm of the Race
Invisible Primary Bellwether Primaries Battleground Primaries Bridge Primaries The Conventions
How Are Candidates Elected?
Actually chosen by “Electors” Electors allocated in most
states using the “Unit Rule”
Electoral and Popular Vote, 1828-2000
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1828
1840
1852
1864
1876
1888
1900
1912
1924
1936
1948
1960
1972
1984
1996
Electoral College Popular Vote