Price Market cap 2016E 2017E Dividend PBR (x) Yum Cha 飲茶 · 2016. 6. 27. · CHINA CEMENT WEEKLY – Last week the average cement price (nationwide) de-clined 0.45% week-on-week

Yum Cha 飲茶 June 27, 2016

Source: Bloomberg

INDICES Closing DoD%

Hang Seng Index 20,259.1 (2.9)

HSCEI 8,530.1 (2.9)

Shanghai COMP 2,854.3 (1.3)

Shenzhen COMP 1,900.6 (0.8)

Gold 1,333.5 4.7

BDIY 609.0 2.2

Crude Oil, WTI(US$/BBL) 47.2 (1.0)

Crude Oil, BRENT(US$/BBL) 48.0 (0.8)

HIBOR, 3-M 0.5 0.2

SHIBOR, 3-M 3.0 0.1

RMB/USD 6.6 0.6

TALKING POINT - STOCKS WITH HIGHER EARNINGS VISIBILITY

The surprising win of the “Leave” camp in the Brexit referendum last Friday led to huge market volatility. As the future of the European Union remains highly uncertain in the near term, we have prepared a list of stocks under our coverage with higher earnings visibility for investors’ reference. The list includes stocks for the renewables, water utilities, pharmaceuticals, construction and education sectors. We also include two stocks without any track record of cutting regular DPS in the past five years. PCCW (0008.HK) is offering >5% dividend yield, and LINK REIT (0823.HK) is offer-ing >4% yield. Both stocks have been largely range-bound recently because of con-cerns about the US rate hike. However, the market turmoil last week should largely lower the possibility of a rate hike in Q3, and investors are likely to revisit yield plays in a volatile market, in our view. In addition, both companies collect most of their rev-enue in HKD, which is free from the risk of RMB depreciation.

DATA RELEASES DUE THIS WEEK

Jun 27 Leading Index

Jun 28 Westpac-MNI Consumer Sentiment

Jun 29 Swift Global Payments CNY

Jun 29 BoP Current Account Balance

Jun 30 Manufacturing PMI

Jun 30 Non-manufacturing PMI

Jun 30 Caixin China PMI Mfg

SHUN TAK [0242.HK; HK$2.40; NOT RATED]- We believe the Company’s core earnings in 2016 and 2017 will be unexciting because of limited revenue booking from its property business and the lower indirect dividend from SJM (0880.HK). How-ever, there will be a substantial jump in profit in 2018 with revenue booking from Ma-cau Nova City Phase 5 (we estimate potential attributable pre-tax profit to Shun Tak is about HK$6.5bn (89% of its current market cap)) and the one-off pre-tax profit of HK$1.3bn from the transaction with the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA). With a net cash position of HK$3.48bn (47.6% of total market cap) and a PBR of 0.28x (Note: NAV per share is about HK$10 based on street estimates), the Company is clearly undervalued on an absolute basis and its historical trading range. Given the lacklustre earnings outlook in 2016 and 2017, further cooperation with the ADIA or other reputable partners in investment projects will be the key to drawing more atten-tion from investors and triggering a re-rating.

CHINA CEMENT WEEKLY – Last week the average cement price (nationwide) de-clined 0.45% week-on-week to RMB 255.42/tonne. Cement prices in part of east China dropped RMB10-20/tonne, owing to weaker execution of production limits in the Yangtze River Delta region. Market demand was still weak in mid-June, led by multi-factors such as rainfall, national college/high school entrance exams (suspension of some construction works to reduce noise levels) and the peak of the harvest season. Daily shipment volume was around 50%-70% in most areas, except in Guangdong and Guangxi, where it was around 80%. Average inventory level (nationwide) was still at 70.56%.

RESEARCH NOTES

Sources: Bloomberg, CGIS Research

Analyst: Wong Chi-man, CFA

Company namePrice

(HK$)

Market cap

(HK$m)Rating PER (x)

2016E

PER (x)

2017E

PER (x)PBR (x)

Dividend

yield (%)958 HK Equity Huaneng Renew ables Corp Ltd 2.42 23,542 BUY 10.80 9.58 8.07 1.13 1.45

916 HK Equity China Longyuan Pow er Group Corp Ltd 6.06 48,701 BUY 14.42 12.29 10.95 1.18 1.40

968 HK Equity Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd 2.99 20,179 BUY 16.13 10.68 8.08 3.51 2.92

855 HK Equity China Water Affairs Group Ltd 4.13 6,277 BUY 15.45 12.52 10.87 1.41 1.69

1093 HK Equity CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Ltd 6.52 38,540 BUY 21.76 19.18 15.52 4.41 1.68

867 HK Equity China Medical System Holdings Ltd 11.24 27,957 BUY 23.75 17.35 14.37 4.50 1.72

3311 HK Equity China State Construction International 9.84 44,163 BUY 9.54 7.81 6.47 1.89 3.15

1317 HK Equity China Maple Leaf Educational Systems Ltd 6.63 9,015 BUY 33.27 28.09 23.41 4.24 0.63

8 HK Equity PCCW Ltd 4.95 38,143 NR 16.19 14.69 13.27 3.42 5.05

823 HK Equity LINK REIT 49.7 111,036 NR 6.92 22.75 21.61 0.88 4.15

COMPANY / INDUSTRY NEWS

Analysts: Wong Chi Man, CFA ([email protected]; Tel: 852 - 3698 6317)

SHUN TAK [0242.HK; HK$2.40; NOT RATED] – PROFIT SKEWED TO 2018; MORE CORPORATE ACTION THE KEY TO DRAWING ATTENTION

Market Cap: US$941m; Free Float: 37.3%

SHUN TAK (0242.HK; NOT-RATED) Company background. Shun Tak Holdings, which was listed on

the main board in 1973, is a conglomerate with businesses includ-

ing property, transportation, hospitality and investment. Most of its

revenue comes from Macau and Hong Kong. The Ho family controls

the Company with a combined 58.2% stake.

Recap of the transaction with the Abu Dhabi Investment Au-

thority (ADIA). Last Wednesday, Shun Tak announced that it will

sell a 50% stake in the Nova City Phase 5 shopping centre (under

development) to the ADIA for a total consideration of HK$3.2bn. It is

located in Taipa, Macau and has a GFA of 655,000 sq. ft. Shun Tak

will collect net proceeds of about HK$3bn and book a pre-tax profit

of HK$1.3bn (17.8% of its market cap).

Potential for more cooperation with the ADIA. In our discussion

with Shun Tak, we learned that one of the goals of the Nova City

Phase 5 shopping centre deal with the ADIA was to form a strategic

partner relationship. It was not a one-off transaction for short-term

capital gains. The Company sees the potential to work with the

ADIA because of the latter’s investment experience in a wide range

of sectors and regions. However, no details have been provided yet.

No decision on a special dividend. Since the payment from the

ADIA will be settled by installments, with the last payment expected

to be settled in Q4 2018, the Company has not made a decision on

the payment of a special dividend. The pre-tax disposal gain of

about HK$1.3bn will be booked when the deal is fully completed.

Property profit to see strong recovery in 2018. The Company’s

revenue from its property business dropped 85% year-on-year

(YoY) to HK$869m in 2015 because of very limited booking of prop-

erty sales. It expects the revenue booking this year to remain rela-

tively low as sales are expected to come mainly from the Chung

Hom Kok Collection, a relatively small luxury residential project with

a salable GFA of about 26,000 sq.ft (five houses in total). It plans to

sell two units this year; we understand the market price of nearby

houses is about HK$50,000-80,000/sq. ft. Property revenue should

pick up mildly in 2017 from sales of about 100 units of Nova City

Phase 4 (ASP about HK$11,500/sq. ft with average unit size of

>1,000 sq.ft. In 2018, revenue booking is likely to be much stronger

thanks to Nova City Phase 5 (under development) with a GFA of

2.3m sq. ft. The ASP of nearby projects is about HK$8,000/sq. ft.

now. This implies the total revenue of the project may reach about

HK$18bn (71% of which is attributable to Shun Tak). We estimate

potential attributable pre-tax profit to Shun Tak is about HK$6.5bn

(89% of its current market cap).

Source: Bloomberg

June 27, 2016

Other promising projects but time required to realize val-

ue. Shun Tak owns a 24% stake in Beijing Tongzhou Inte-

grated Development (residential, office and serviced apart-

ments) Phase 1 (GFA: 334,000 m2) and a 19.35% stake in

Phase 2 (GFA: 300,000 m2). The projects, which are ex-

pected to be completed in 2018, will benefit from the authori-

ties’ decision to pick Tongzhou to share some of the functions

of the Beijing municipal government. According to press re-

ports, the ASP for residential housing in Tongzhou reached

RMB35,000/m2 in May. Another key project is the 70%-

owned Hengqin Integrated Development (office, serviced

apartments, hotel, commercial) (GFA: 131,000 m2) near Ma-

cau. The expected completion date is 2019. About 75% of the

GFA will be reserved for leasing. In the medium term, the

Company intends to increase its revenue contribution from

rental income.

(more on next page)

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Jun15 Aug15 Oct15 Dec15 Feb16 Apr16 Jun16

(HK$ million)(HK$)

Turnover (RHS) Price (LHS)

HK$ 2014 2015 2016E 2017E

Revenue (m) 9,151 4,116 4,762 5,034

COGS (m) (4,670) (1,495) n.a. n.a.

Gross profit (m) 4,482 2,621 n.a. n.a.

Gross margin (%) 49 64 n.a. n.a.

EBIT (m) 3,242 636 1,315 1,899

Net profit (m) 4,453 745 856 968

Net margin (%) 49 18 18 19

Core net profit 2,577 548

EPS 1.47 0.25 0.28 0.32

ROE (%) 18.73 2.82 3.14 3.16

Dividend yield (%) 2.92 0.83 1.17 2.50

PER (x) 1.6 9.8 8.6 7.5

PBR (x) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3




Transportation business to remain resilient thanks to low oil prices. Although TurboJET’s flagship Hong Kong-Macau ferry

routes reported a 2% decline in total passenger throughput (14m) last year, adjusted segment profit still grew 218% YoY to HK$321m

as a result of lower fuel costs. As oil prices remain at a relatively low level this year, we expect the transportation business to contin-

ue to report earnings growth in 2016, despite lower passenger numbers.

Outlook for hospitality business to remain challenging but limited impact on overall performance. The weakness of the Ma-

cau tourism industry has adversely affected the Company’s hotel business. The occupancy rate for the Mandarin Oriental, Macau

remains at a relatively low level. The Hong Kong SkyCity Marriott Hotel also faced some pressure on room rates, but was still able to

keep its occupancy rate over 80%. Any further impact on the Company’s financial performance should be limited, as this segment

accounted for only 4.7% of the total adjusted segment profit in 2015.

Investment segment to remain unexciting because of the indirect link with SJM (0880.HK). Shun Tak owns an effective interest

in STDM of about 11.5%, which in turn has a 54.13% stake in SJM. The performance of this segment largely reflects the dividend

paid by SJM in the previous financial year. As the dividend declared by SJM in 2015 dropped about 70% YoY, it will inevitably affect

the dividend to be collected by Shun Tak this year.

Unexciting core earnings before 2018 but deeply undervalued; more corporate action will be the key to triggering a re-

rating. We believe the Company’s core earnings in 2016 and 2017 will remain unexciting because of limited revenue booking from its

property business and the lower indirect dividend from SJM. However, there will be a substantial jump in profit in 2018 with revenue

booking from Macau Nova City Phase 5 and the one-off pre-tax profit of HK$1.3bn from the transaction with the ADIA. With a net

cash position of HK$3.48bn (47.6% of total market cap) and a PBR of 0.28x (Note: NAV per share is about HK$10 based on street

estimates), the Company is clearly undervalued on an absolute basis and its historical trading range. Given the lackluster earnings

outlook in 2016 and 2017, further cooperation with the ADIA or other reputable partners in investment projects will be the key to

drawing more attention from investors and triggering a re-rating.

0.277x

Figure 1: PBR of Shun Tak

Sources: Capital IQ, CGIS Research




Figure 2: 2015 results highlights

Sources: Company, CGIS Research

Y/E Dec 31 (HK$'000) 2014 2015 YoY change

Revenues

Turnover 9,538,561 4,405,312 -53.8%

Property 5,909,420 868,840 -85.3%

Transportation 2,437,768 2,406,098 -1.3%

Hospitality 772,758 801,889 3.8%

Investment 418,615 328,485 -21.5%

Other Income 257,198 290,496 12.9%

Total Revenues 9,795,759 4,695,808 -52.1%

Expenses

Cost of Inventories Sold and Services Provided (4,669,794) (1,494,894) -68.0%

Staff Cost (1,234,493) (1,288,973) 4.4%

Other Operating Costs (528,003) (636,183) 20.5%

Other Gain/(Loss), Net 22,713 23,123 1.8%

Depreciation and Amortization (155,387) (153,820) -1.0%

Fair Value Changes on Investment Properties 941,420 257,508 -72.6%

Share of Results of Associates 50,801 (43,753) -186.1%

Share of Results of Joint Ventures 1,581,224 122,611 -92.2%

Finance Costs (135,408) (170,089) 25.6%

Earnings before Taxes 5,668,832 1,311,338 -76.9%

Taxes and Other Expenses

Provision for Income Tax (404,999) (138,371) -65.8%

Minority Interest (After Tax) (810,924) (428,297) -47.2%

Net Income (Loss) 4,452,909 744,670 -83.3%

Core net profit 2,577,000 548,000 -78.7%

Adjusted segment profit

Property 2,809,000 524,000 -81.3%

Transportation 101,000 321,000 217.8%

Hospitality 93,000 56,000 -39.8%

Investment 385,000 281,000 -27.0%

Supplementary Info (HK$)

Basic EPS - Continuing Operations 1.47 0.25 -83.3%

Diluted EPS - Continuing Operations 1.44 0.25 -82.9%




Figure 3a: Schedule of major properties





Figure 3b: Schedule of major properties





Figure 3c: Schedule of major properties





Figure 3d: Schedule of major properties


China Cement Weekly

June 27, 2016

Wong Chi Man—Head of Research

(852) 3698-6317

[email protected]

Livy Lyu—Research Assistant

(852) 3698-6393

[email protected]

Rainfall and Harvest Season Continued to Cap Cement Price Upside; Asia Cement

Intends to Increase Stake in Shanshui Cement

Cement prices down 0.45% week-on-week as result of continuing rainfall. Last week the

average cement price (nationwide) declined 0.45% week-on-week to RMB 255.42/tonne.

Cement prices in part of east China dropped RMB10-20/tonne, owing to weaker execution of

production limits in the Yangtze River Delta region. Market demand was still weak in mid-June,

led by multi-factors such as rainfall, national college/high school entrance exams (suspension of

some construction works to reduce noise levels) and the peak of the harvest season. Daily

shipment volume was around 50%-70% in most areas, except in Guangdong and Guangxi,

where it was around 80%. Average inventory level (nationwide) was still at 70.56%.

Coal prices stable since early June. The comprehensive average price index for Bohai-Rim

Steam Coal (Q5500K) remained at RMB400/tonne last week. The index was 4.0% lower on a

year-on-year basis.

Asia Cement still intends to increase its stake in Shanshui Cement. The board of directors

of China Shanshui Cement [0691.HK] approved a proposal to restore the public float earlier this

month, involving an open offer on the basis of four new shares for each existing share, in

combination with a placement of new/existing shares to raise about HK$4bn to settle the

outstanding debt of the Company, including any outstanding amount for the 2020 Notes. In

addition to its major shareholder Tianrui (International) Holding Company’s indication of interest

in underwriting the rights issue, Asia Cement [1102.TT] revealed its intention this week to

increase its stake once trading resumes. As the application for the construction of new clinker

production lines has been suspended in China, acquisition is the only way to expand a

company’s cement business, according to the chairman of Asia Cement. Management of

Shanshui Cement intends to resume trading three months from now, according to press reports.

Cement stocks under coverage down 0.5% on average. Overall market performance was

volatile last week amid concerns of Brexit. Best performer CR Cement [1313.HK; HOLD] was

up 1.7%. BBMG[2009.HK;BUY] was the weakest among our coverage stocks, falling 2.1%.

China Cement Sector

Sources: Company, Bloomberg, CGIS Research estimates

Valuation Table

Net debt/equity (%)

Company Ticker Rating Price (HK$) Market cap (US$m) 2015 2016E 2017E 2015 2016E 2017E 2015 2016E 2017E 2016E

Anhui Conch 914 HK Equity BUY 17.64 11,343 13.1 9.4 9.4 1.20 1.09 1.01 7.0 5.4 5.1 3

CNBM 3323 HK Equity HOLD 3.33 2,305 25.3 6.4 6.5 0.39 0.37 0.35 9.9 9.5 9.3 218

BBMG 2009 HK Equity BUY 2.28 5,421 11.4 7.7 7.2 0.56 0.55 0.52 8.6 7.3 6.8 63

CR Cement 1313 HK Equity HOLD 2.37 1,985 7.4 10.2 10.3 0.57 0.55 0.54 7.4 6.6 6.7 64

Simple average 14.3 8.4 8.3 0.68 0.64 0.61 8.2 7.2 7.0 87

Weighted average 13.5 8.7 8.6 0.88 0.82 0.77 7.8 6.4 6.1 48

PER (x) PBR (x) EV/EBITDA(x)

2015 -2017E PEG(x)

Company Ticker 2016E 2017E CAGR (%) 2016E 2015 2016E 2017E 2015 2016E 2017E

Anhui Conch 914 HK Equity 46.2 5.2 24.0 0.4 8.93 12.09 11.66 2.9 3.2 3.2

CNBM 3323 HK Equity 315.0 2.4 106.1 0.1 1.49 5.95 5.80 1.3 2.1 2.3

CR Cement 1313 HK Equity (28.0) (0.1) (15.2) (0.5) 7.51 5.49 5.33 3.4 2.1 1.8

BBMG 2009 HK Equity 56.0 11.1 31.7 0.3 5.41 7.42 7.70 1.8 1.5 1.5

Simple average 97.3 4.6 36.7 0.1 5.84 7.74 7.62 2.4 2.2 2.2

Weighted average 71.2 5.9 31.3 0.3 7.08 9.59 9.40 2.5 2.5 2.5

EPS Growth (%) ROE (%) Dividend yield (%)

1-Year Relative Performance

Sources: Capital IQ, CGIS Research

Peer Comparison

Sources: Bloomberg, CGIS Research

Market cap

Company Ticker Rating Price (LC) (US$m) 2015 2016E 2017E 2015 2016E 2017E 2015 2016E 2017E

Anhui Conch 914 HK Equity BUY 17.64 11,343 13.1 9.4 9.4 1.20 1.09 1.01 7.0 5.4 5.1

CNBM 3323 HK Equity HOLD 3.33 2,305 25.3 6.4 6.5 0.39 0.37 0.35 9.9 9.5 9.3

BBMG 2009 HK Equity BUY 2.28 5,421 11.4 7.7 7.2 0.56 0.55 0.52 8.6 7.3 6.8

CR Cement 1313 HK Equity HOLD 2.37 1,985 7.4 10.2 10.3 0.57 0.55 0.54 7.4 6.6 6.7

TCC International 1136 HK Equity NR 1.24 786 - - 24.8 0.31 0.32 0.32 8.1 11.8 8.6

China National Materials 1893 HK Equity NR 1.68 769 6.6 7.2 5.4 0.34 0.32 0.29 6.5 6.0 5.5

Asia Cement 743 HK Equity NR 1.35 271 - - 52.3 0.20 0.20 0.21 6.5 11.2 8.9

West China Cement 2233 HK Equity NR 1.59 1,105 - 23.8 17.6 1.26 1.33 1.30 9.7 9.5 7.2

Tianrui Cement 1252 HK Equity NR 2.20 677 14.7 n.a. n.a. 0.60 n.a. n.a. 10.1 n.a. n.a.

Simple average 4.3 8.1 16.7 0.54 0.59 0.57 8.2 8.4 7.2

Weighted average 12.1 8.7 9.7 0.85 0.78 0.73 7.9 6.6 6.1

PER (x) PBR (x) EV/EBITDA(x)

Figure 1: Regional Cement Price

Sources: Digital Cement, CGIS Research

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Explanation on Equity Ratings

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China Galaxy International Securities (Hong Kong) Co. Limited, CE No.AXM459

Room 3501-3507, 35/F, Cosco Tower, Grand Millennium Plaza, 183 Queen’s Road Central, Sheung Wan, Hong Kong. General line: 3698-6888.

BUY share price will increase by >20% within 12 months in absolute terms :

SELL share price will decrease by >20% within 12 months in absolute terms :

HOLD no clear catalyst, and downgraded from BUY pending clearer signal to reinstate BUY or further downgrade to outright SELL :

Documents

Price Market cap 2016E 2017E Dividend PBR (x) Yum Cha 飲 茶 · 2016. 6. 27. · CHINA CEMENT WEEKLY – Last week the average cement price (nationwide) de-clined 0.45% week-on-week

Price Market cap 2016E 2017E Dividend PBR (x) Yum Cha 飲茶 · 2016. 6. 27. · CHINA CEMENT WEEKLY – Last week the average cement price (nationwide) de-clined 0.45% week-on-week