Pricing Volatility

2015

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• Wheat – Understanding this movement is vital. If I lock in at $300, on average what is the upside?

• What is happening to maximums and minimums? • What would it take to get back to 2010 volatility?

• On average, what months are best , to avoid locking in the lowest cash price?

• Barley – Look at the highs, See a pattern?• What is happening to the lows?

• Lows and highs are better second half and the “August” thing also applicable .

• Non GM Canola – Look at the highs !!• Volatility is still large look at the scale.

• Best time to avoid lowest lows? End of year.• This doesn’t mean the best prices are end of year

• Remember that this data is on average and doesn’t mean it will happen every year - (Guide only)

• Don’t keep those large numbers from 2010 in your head as goals. – this shows that it doesn’t happen anymore.

• Set realistic good numbers as targets.• Marketing Rule for 2015 – Sell more at the good numbers.• Thought- sometimes a washout is better than a harvest sale.

• Final thought – When it is all finished and didn’t work – Learn from it!

Notes