Principles of Risk - Environmental Risk

7/30/2019 Principles of Risk - Environmental Risk

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The Business School

The Business School

Principles of Risk

Environmental

Risk Management


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The Business School

The Business School

RiskManagement

Process

IRM et al (2002)A Risk Management Standard


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Emergency Preparedness: 6 Stage Cycle

Contextualisation

Hazard review

and allocation

for assessment

Risk analysisRisk evaluation

Risk treatmentMonitoring

& review


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Hazard mapping Vulnerability & capacity Loss estimation

Disaster preparedness Disaster mitigation

Testing plans throughsimulation Applying plans in

disasters

Stage 1:

Initiate Disaster

Planning

Stage 3:

Establish Levels

of Acceptable

Risk

Stage 6:

Feedback Loops

Stage 2: Risk

Assessment

EXIT:

Disaster

Planning not

feasible

Stage 5:

Implementing the

Plans

Stage 4: Disaster

Planning

The Cycle of Disaster Planning


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Environmental Risk Analysis

Hazard Analysis

VulnerabilityAnalysis

Risk AnalysisInterpretation


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The Crunch Model orPressure &

Release (PAR) Model

Based on the concept of:

Hazard x Vulnerability = Disaster or Risk of Disaster

The crunch model adds an additional dimension toearlier VCA/CVA frameworks as it illustrates the

Progression of Vulnerabilityin three developing

stages:

Root Causes Dynamic Pressures Unsafe Conditions


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Limited access to: Power Structures

Resources

Ideologies: Political systems Economic systems

Lack of: Local institutions Training Appropriate skills Local investments Local markets Press freedom Ethical standards in

public life

Macro-forces: Rapid population

change Rapid urbanisation Economic systems

Arms expenditure Debt repayment

schedules Deforestation Decline in soil

productivity

Physical: Dangerous location Unprotected buildings

& infrastructure

Local economy: Livelihoods at risk

Low income levels

Social relations:Special groups at risk Lack of local institutions

Public actions &

institutions

Lack of disasterpreparedness

Prevalence of

endemic diseases

Root causesDynamic

pressures

Unsafe

conditions

The progression of vulnerability

Earthquake

High winds

Flooding

Volcanoes

Landslide

Drought

Virus & pests

R = H x V

RISK = Hazard x Vulnerability

Disaster

Hazards

Pressure & Release (PAR) Model


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The Business SchoolThe Business SchoolVulnerability

Disasters do not occur simply because of a physical or

environmental hazard .

But the hazard must impact on

groups of people that are at

different levels of preparedness

(either by accident or design),

resilience, and with varying

capacities for recovery.

[Cannon et al (2003)]

Vulnerabilityis the termused to describe the condition of

such people

Disasters happen when a

natural phenomenon affects a

population that is inadequately

prepared and unable to recoverwithout external assistance


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Humanvulnerability

Natural Hazard

Environmental risk

or disaster event

Exposure Resistance Resilience

Location Adjustments PreparationHealthLivelihoodSurroundings

Magnitude Frequency

Global social,

economic & politicalpressures

Human induced

global environmentalchange

From Pelling (2001)


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The Business SchoolThe Business SchoolSocial vulnerability

A complex set of characteristics that include a persons:

Initial well-being(nutritional status, mental health, morale, etc)

Livelihood and resilience (asset pattern and capitals, income,

qualifications, etc) Self-protection (degree of protection dependent on capability

and willingness to build a safe home, use a safe site, etc. )

Social protection (societal hazard preparedness building

codes, shelters, emergency measures, etc.)

Social and political networks and institutions (social capital,but also institutional environment etc)

Cannon et al (2003)


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CAPACITIES VULNERABILITIES

PHYSICAL/MATERIALWhat productive

resources, skills, and

hazards exist?

SOCIAL/ORGANISATIONAL

What are the relationsand organisationamong people?

MOTIVATIONAL/ATTITUDINAL

How does the communityview its ability tocreate change?

Capacities and Vulnerabilities Analysis (CVA)

Anderson & Woodrow, 1988


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Developed by the International Federation of Red Cross (IFRC)and

Red Crescent Societies in the early 1990s. A full assessment has

three key stages:

Step 1: Identifying potential threats (based in nature, violence

and deterioration).

Step 2: Identifying social vulnerabilities (three characteristics make

certain groups more vulnerable than others: proximity and

exposure, poverty and exclusion or marginalisation).

Step 3: Assessing capacities and strengths (physical/material,

social/organisational and skills and attitudes).

The Vulnerability and Capacity

Assessment (VCA) tool


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The Business SchoolThe Business SchoolVulnerability and Capacity Analysis (VCA)

VCA is used principally as:

A diagnostic toolto understand problems and their

underlying causes.

Aplanning toolto prioritise and sequence actionsand inputs.

A risk assessment toolto help assess specific risks.

A tool for empoweringand mobilising vulnerable

communities.


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The Citizens Disaster Response Center and Network (CDRC/N) in

the Philippines has adopted the CVA methodology since the early 1990s -

part of their Citizenry-Based and Development-Oriented Disaster

Response (CBDO-DR) approach The La Red Networkhas build up considerable experience in

participatory community risk assessment in Latin America.

The Peri Peri networkhas actively promoted the use of VCA insouthern Africa. Tearfundand partner organisations in India are currently involved in

VCA activities. OXFAMdeveloped a Participatory Capacities and Vulnerabilities

Assessment (PCVA) tool.ActionAidhas been engaged in Participatory Vulnerability Analysis

(PVA). CAREhas developed a Household Livelihood Security Assessment

tool kit.

Some alternative or adapted

assessment models


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The Business SchoolThe Business SchoolParticipatory Vulnerability Analysis(PVA)

Step 1:

Situation analysis

of vulnerability

Step 2:Analysing causes

of vulnerability

Step 3:

Analysis ofcommunity action

Step 4:

Drawing action

from analysis

Action Aid International

(undated)


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The Manilalandslide

disaster, 2000


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The most important tasks and steps in vulnerability

analysis are:1) Identification of potentially vulnerable individuals or elements. Based on

basic data collection on population, location, self-protection capability

2) Identification and analysis of factors influencing or resulting in

vulnerability (vulnerability factors for each hazard type). Analysis of riskperception and investigation of the vulnerability factors, their linkage

and interdependencies ie:

Physical vulnerability factors

Social factors

Economic factors Environmental factors

3) Development and identification of indicators for identifying vulnerabilities

and estimating the degree of vulnerability


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4) Analysis of self-protection capabilities: identification of indicators showing

capacity for preparedness: consideration of strategies and measures atvarious levels (family, village, community, district, province, country).

The following indicate the existence or extent of coping strategies:monitoring and early warning systems traditional forecasting and early warning systems

plans for disaster reduction plans and fund for disaster protection insurance policiesconstruction standards maintenance of basic infrastructurepreventive structures, protective infrastructureland use planning, spatial planning, zoningorganisation and communication (emergency committees)stability of settlement, social structureslocal knowledge (of hazards)

5) Estimate of accepted risk (risk level) and hence residual risk.


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The Business SchoolThe Business SchoolHigh risk groups

Certain groups in society who persistently suffer to a disproportionate

degree from disaster impact. These high-risk groups often include:

The victims of official or cultural prejudice, (such as ethnic or

religious minorities) leading to inequitable access to resources, Low caste groups

Certain occupations (for example, fishermen in cyclone proneareas)Women in certain societies, Babies and small children, Those with special needs such as disability,

The sick, The elderly.

In some societies these high risk groups may form the majority of the

population.Davis et al Social Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis

Workshop Geneva, 25-26 May 2004


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GENDER FACTORS INCREASING RISK FOR GIRLS AND WOMEN

Childbirth- and pregnancy-related health limitations

Longer life span and increased mobility limitations, chronic illness,

disabilities

Limited reproductive control

Greater risk of domestic and sexual violence More likely to be sole economic providers

Lower incomes, more economic dependency; less access to credit

Fewer land rights; less control over labor

More often employed as part-time, "flexible" workers, and in free trade

zones

More responsibility for dependents

More dependent on child care centers, schools, clinics, and other

public services


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Less access to transportation Higher illiteracy rates, lower levels of schooling and training

More dependent on water, fuel wood, crops and other natural

resources

Less free time and personal autonomy

More often socially isolated

Less decision-making power in homes and political institutions

Subject to "intersecting vulnerabilities," e.g. as impoverished women

raising families in substandard

housing; underemployed disabled women subject to sexual violence;

frail older women who are illiterate

Low representation in emergency management organizations andprofessions

Less knowledge of how to access emergency assistance or capacity

to do so


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The Business SchoolThe Business SchoolKey Readings

Anderson M & Woodrow P (1998) Rising from the Ashes: DevelopmentStrategies in Times of Disaster

Cannon T et al (2003) Social Vulnerability, Sustainable Livelihoods and

Disasters Report to DFID and Sustainable Livelihoods Support Office

Pelling M (2002) Assessing urban vulnerability and social adaptation to

risk International Development Planning Review 24:1 59-76 Pelling M (2003) The Vulnerability of Cities: Natural Disasters and Social

Resilience

Smith D & Elliott D (Eds.) (2006) Key Reading in Crisis Management

Wisner B (2001) Marginality and vulnerability: why the homeless of

Tokyo dont count in disaster preparations Applied Geography 18:1 pp 25-

33

Wisner B et al (2004) (2nd Edition) At Risk: Natural Hazards, Peoples

Vulnerability and Disasters


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GTZ 2004


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GTZ 2004


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The Business SchoolThe Business SchoolFEMA(US Federal Emergency Management Agency)

FEMAs mission is to reduce the loss of life and property and protectcommunities nationwide from all hazards, including natural disasters,

acts of terrorism, and other man-made disasters. FEMA leads and

supports the nation in a risk-based, comprehensive emergency

management system of preparedness, protection, response, recovery

and mitigation.

Established in 1979 and merged several separatedisaster-related responsibilities into a single agency.From 2003 it became part of the Department ofHomeland Security. As of November 2007, FEMA had

responded to more than 2,700 presidentially declareddisasters. The Post-Katrina Emergency ManagementReform Act of 2006 created a newly expanded FEMA.


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The Business SchoolThe Business SchoolFEMAMitigation Plan The STAPLEE Approach

Social Public must support overall implementation and specificmitigation actions, so plans tested for community acceptance.

Technical To check the plans are technically feasible and will helpreduce losses, with minimal secondary impacts

Administrative Examines the anticipated staffing, funding, and maintenancerequirements of the mitigating action.

Political Examines the level of political support for the mitigationprogrammes and activities

Legal Checks to ensure that the proposed actions are permissableunder local, regional, state and federal legislation

Economic Checks that the proposals are cost-effective and funding isavailable. Notes that big ticket mitigation actions are oftenconsidered for implementation in a post-disaster scenario ..

Environmental Checks that there are no significant negative impacts onenvironmental assets (eg wildlfe, wetlands, other resources)


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The Community Rating System (CRS) rewards communities thatexceed the minimum requirements of the National Flood InsuranceProgram (NFIP).

The aim goal of the CRS is to encourage, via flood insurance premiumadjustments, community and state activities beyond those required

by the NFIP to:

Reduce flood losses, i.e., protect public health and safety, reduce damage to buildings and contents, prevent increases in flood damage from new construction,

reduce the risk of erosion damage, and protect natural and beneficial floodplain functions;

Facilitate accurate insurance rating; and Promote the awareness of flood insurance.

FEMA Community Rating System (CRS)


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The Business SchoolThe Business SchoolFEMA Community Rating System (CRS)

Public Information (Series 300)This series credits programs that advise people about the flood hazard, flood

insurance, and ways to reduce flood damage. These activities also provide data

needed by insurance agents for accurate flood insurance rating.

Mapping and Regulations (Series 400)

This series credits programs that provide increased protection to newdevelopment. These activities include mapping areas not shown on the FIRM,

preserving open space, enforcing higher regulatory standards, and managing

stormwater.

Flood Damage Reduction (Series 500)

This series credits programs for areas in which existing development is at risk.

Credit is provided for a comprehensive floodplain management plan, relocating or

retrofitting floodprone structures, and maintaining drainage systems.

Flood Preparedness (Series 600)

This series credits flood warning, levee safety, and dam safety programs.


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FEMA Risk Assessment: 4 Criteria

1. History:

0 1 times in the past 100 years low (L)

2 3 times medium (M)

> 4 times high (H)

2. Human vulnerability:

consideration of vulnerable groups (old people, handicapped),

population density, human dwellings with respect to hazards

location and value of property and vital facilities

Rating:< 1 % (affected) (L)

110 % (M)

> 10 % (H)


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FEMA Risk Assessment: 4 Criteria

3. Maximum hazard (assuming the worst case):

area affected:

< 5 % (L)5 25 % M

> 25 % (H)

4. Probability

The basis for assessment is annual occurrenceonce every 1,000 years (L)

between 1:1,000 and 1:10 (M)

1:10 years: (H)


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Brief notes on risk management via disaster

preparedness

NB: link to other MSC DREM modules


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Disaster Risk Reduction

over-reliance on relief results in a

perpetuation of existing risks and a cycleof recurrent disasters

Disaster risk reduction is aimed at

tackling the fundamental elements of

disaster risk: vulnerability, hazards (or

shocks) and exposure (DFID, 2006 p.9)


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Disaster Risk Reduction (1)Sustainable Institutional Structures and Good

Governance

Reform of national disaster management agencies andestablishment of stronger co-ordination mechanismsbetween relevant line ministries

Linking community-level experience with national-levelpolicy making

Improved environmental management and controlmechanisms

Efforts to reduce corruption to strengthen building codesand land-use


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Disaster Risk Reduction (2)Risk Identification, Monitoring, Early Warning and

Public Awareness

Comprehensive multi-hazard risk, vulnerability and

capacity assessments at all levels

Management and dissemination of knowledge on risk

Effective early warning systems, including for famine,

drought, hurricanes and floods

Communication and awareness raising about hazard

threats


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Disaster Risk Reduction (3)

Technical and Physical Risk Mitigation

Improved design and construction of physical

infrastructure, particularly critical infrastructure Improved maintenance and repair of physical

infrastructure Well-structured land use, planning and zoning systems Appropriate structural interventions to reduce risk e.g.

maintenance of wetlands in flood plains Improved use of climate data to encourage more

effective water management, agricultural planning andhealthcare


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Building Resilience, Promotion of Innovation,Knowledge and Education

Disaster proofing livelihoods to make them moreresilient in disaster prone areas

Use of science and technology to develop appropriatelivelihoods for populations at risk

Promotion of risk awareness through education at alllevels

Improving information on the likely impacts of climatechange


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Risk sharing and Risk Transfer

Use of insurance and re-insurance instruments e.g. crop

insurance for farmers

Establishment of calamity funds for use in times of crisis Use of safety nets for the most vulnerable e.g.

microcredit and cash transfers


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Disaster Risk Reduction (6)Preparedness, Effective Response and

Sustainable Recovery

Community-level disaster preparedness incorporating afocus on safe behaviour and practices

Well-resourced and prepared response systems with afocus on national and local capacity

Ensuring recovery includes efforts to reduce underlyingrisk factors including through engagement withdecision-makers and the public on future efforts toreduce disaster risk


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UK framework

Documents

Principles of Risk - Environmental Risk