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Canton du Valais, Service des forêts et du paysage (SFP), section des dangers naturels
Kanton Graubünden, Amt für Wald Graubünden, Naturgefahren
Regione Valle d‘Aosta, Dipartimento Difesa del Suolo e Risorse Idriche
Regione Piemonte, Direzione Opere pubbliche, Difesa del Suolo, Economia Montana e Foreste
Regione Lombardia, Agenzia Regionale per la Protezione dell‘Ambiente
Arpa Lombardia, Direzione Generale Protezione Civile, Prevenzione e Polizia Locale
Arpa Piemonte, Agenzia Regionale per la Protezione Ambientale
SLF, WSL-Institut für Schnee- und Lawinenforschung SLF
http://www.progettostrada.net/
AINEVA, Associazione Interregionale Neve e Valanghe
How snow cover properties influence avalanche dynamics
Walter Steinkogler1,2
Jochen Veitinger1,3, Betty Sovilla1, Michael Lehning1,2 1WSL-Institut für Schnee- und Lawinenforschung SLF
2CRYOS, Faculté de L’environnement naturel, architectural et construit , EPFL, Lausanne
3Geographisches Institut, Universität Zürich
Content
The MOTIVATION
The MODELS (Alpine3D/SNOWPACK/RAMMS)
The RESULTS for winter 2012/13 in VDLS
The POSSIBLE APPLICATIONS
The (far) FUTURE
Motivation – practical view
Roads Ski slopes Railway
Avalanches directly affect safety of many mountain communities
Motivation – scientific view
Snow cover properties influence…
... the development of flow regimes and granulation
Key parameters: temperature, density, moisture content, granular size
Key parameters: erosion depth density
… the mass balance by defining the potential of entrainment of additional mass
Motivation – scientific view
Alpine3D / SNOWPACK RAMMS
- „Rapid mass movements“ - 3D avalanche dynamics model
Used for hazard mapping in Switzerland
Recent large improvements in modelling of snow distribution in alpine terrain
Missing link: Influence of snow properties on flow dynamics
- spatially distributed (surface), three- dimensional (atmospheric) model
Motivation
What can be used by practitioners directly and indirectly?!
Research Practitioneer
!!! Your input is needed Discussion/workshop !!!
Differences in mobility
Example 1 Example 2
- 2 avalanches from VDLS dataset
- Similar initial conditions (release area) but very different ‚mobility‘
Differences in mobility
Deposition structures:
Example 1: fan-shaped deposition, uniform granule distribution
Example 2: Flow-fingers, strong levee formation and big granules
Temperature granulation mobility
- 2 avalanches from VDLS dataset
- Similar initial conditions (release area) but very different ‚mobility‘
Example 1 Example 2
Alpine3D
Alpine3D spatially distributed (surface), 3D (atmospheric) model
Input: multiple automatic weather stations
Modeling: supplementary data spatial distribution of snow and its properties
Grid: with 25 m cell resolution
Alpine3D - HS
Practitioneer: Is the absolute snow height important in my area or avalanche path (roughness, release area size, …)??
Alpine3D –dHS24
2012 12 04 2012 12 18 2013 01 11 2013 02 02
Practitioneer: Is the 24 hour new snow height important in my area (small vs. extreme avalanches) ??
Alpine3D – TS40
Practitioneer: Is the snow temperature important in my avalanche path (cold/warm avalanches, cold in release and warm in the runout, …)??
Alpine3D – TS40
2013 01 30 2013 01 31 2013 02 01 2013 02 02
Alpine3D/SNOWPACK
A
D
C
Snow cover model SNOWPACK allows full snow pack information at every grid cell
Temperature profile at selected points along avalanche path
B
T(de) T(de) T(de) T(de)
#816 -8.0°C / 17.6°F
(2 m) -6.6°C / 20.1°F
(1.5 m) -3.3°C / 26.1°F
(1 m) -3.1°C / 26.4°F
(1.5 m)
#917 -5.5°C / 22.1°F
(2m) -4.9°C / 23.2°F
(1m) -1.1°C / 30.2°F
(1.5 m) -0.8°C / 30.6°F
(1.3 m)
A
D
C
B
2013 02 02
2012 12 04
Alpine3D – TS40 & Radar
Snow temperature modeled with Alpine3D
Avalanche front velocity measured with Radar
For example picture see Sovilla-Intro.pdf
For example picture see Sovilla-Intro.pdf
Applications: RAMMS
- Including temperature effects in RAMMS
Alpine3D
RAMMS
RAMMS
- Allows coupling to snow cover models (Alpin3D)
- Especially important for non-extreme avalanches
(Vera et. al., Thermal temperature in avalanche flow; ISSW 2012)
SNOWPACK
The (far) future
Alpine3D
RAMMS
Further developing and combining of avalanche & snow cover models - Especially for non-extreme avalanches - From ‚quasi-real time‘ to forecasting - Forecasting for larger and data sparse regions - Regional hazard mapping
Research Practitioneer
What does the practitioneer need???
Appendix
APPENDIX
Alpine3D / SNOWPACK
- Wet snow avalanche activity?
- Accurate enough for (rough) stratigraphy? Yes for dynamics, but also for LWD?
Full SNOWPACK output at every grid cell.
VDS 1 FMCW B FMCW A FMCW C
VDS 1
FMCW C
FMCW B
FMCW A
Alpine3D/SNOWPACK
VDS 1
FMCW C
FMCW B
Snow cover model SNOWPACK allows full snow pack information at every grid cell
Temperature profile at selected points along avalanche path
FMCW A
T(de) T(de) T(de) T(de)
#816 -8.0°C / 17.6°F
(2 m) -6.6°C / 20.1°F
(1.5 m) -3.3°C / 26.1°F
(1 m) -3.1°C / 26.4°F
(1.5 m)
#917 -5.5°C / 22.1°F
(2m) -4.9°C / 23.2°F
(1m) -1.1°C / 30.2°F
(1.5 m) -0.8°C / 30.6°F
(1.3 m)
VDS 1
FMCW B
FMCW A
FMCW C