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Priority Goals of the ICT Research and Development in Europe
Kiril Boyanov,
Dimitar Todorov
2
The impact of ICT on Economic Growth
The investment in ICT contributes to 0,3-0,8% of annual average GNP growth
Investment in software accounted for up to a third of the overall contribution of ICT investments.
The ICT-manufacturing sector is an important driver of the acceleration in productivity growth but it is highly concentrated because of large economies of scale and high entry costs.
The ICT-producing services sector has potential for further productivity growth in a broader range of countries.
3
The impact of ICT investments on annual Economic Growth
0,00%
0,10%
0,20%
0,30%
0,40%
0,50%
0,60%
0,70%
0,80%
0,90%
1990-1995
1995-2001
4
The contribution of ICT-manufacturing to the labor productivity growth
0,00%
0,20%
0,40%
0,60%
0,80%
1,00%
1,20%1990-1995
1996-2001
5
IT spending in Eastern Europe
IT spending in € million Share in %
IT/GDP
in %
IT spending Per capita in €
Bulgaria 312 2.7 1.8 40
Czech Republic 2,620 22.7 3.3 254
Estonia 216 1.9 3.1 150
Hungary 1,956 16.9 3.5 193
Latvia 220 1.9 2.5 92
Lithuania 257 2.2 1.7 73
Poland 3,992 34.5 2.0 104
Romania 719 6.2 1.5 32
Slovakia 757 6.5 2.4 141
Slovenia 507
4.4 2.1 255
Total CEE 11,555 100.0 2.3 111
Total Western Europe 286,740 100.0 3.1 735
6
World IT market by regions
Rest of World
16%
Europe 29%
Japan 13%
US 42%
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World ICT market by regions
Rest of World 21.7%
Europe 30.5%
Japan 12.3%
US 32.4%
4 Tigers 3.1%
Total value€ 2,071 billion
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Europe ICT market structure
Carrier services 43.4%
Support services 5.7%
Computer hardware 12.7%
End user communications
equipment4.2%
Office equip-ment 1.6%
Software 10.9%
IT services 14.9%
Datacom and network equipment 6.5%
Total value € 592 billion
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EU main socio-economic trends
Increasing competition at a global scale – Also research is increasingly organised on an international
scale Including from emerging economies : China, India, … De-localisation; Open Innovation Focus on higher parts of the value chain; Faster innovation
cycles Enlargement of the Union
An opportunity but requires further effort on integration Ageing –
Starting to feel the impact … Security concerns
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The research activities that are eligible for EU funding under the IST priority
Applied IST research addressing major societal and economic challenges
Communication, computing and software technologies
Components and microsystems Knowledge and interface technologies Future and Emerging Technologies
(FET)
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Areas addressed within FP6-Call4:Open 17.11.2004, Close 22.03.2005
Nanoelectronics Technologies and devices for micro/nano-scale integration Towards a global dependability and security framework Broadband for All Mobile and Wireless Systems and Platforms Beyond 3G Networked Audio Visual Systems and Home Platforms Semantic-based Knowledge and Content Systems Cognitive Systems ICT Research for Innovative Government Technology-enhanced Learning Integrated biomedical information for better health eSafety – Co-operative Systems for Road Transport Strengthening the Integration of the ICT research effort in an Enlarged
Europe Advanced Computing Architectures Presence and Interaction in Mixed Reality Environments Situated and Autonomic Communications
12
Areas addressed within FP6-Call5:Open 17.05.2005, Close 21.09.2005
Photonic Components Micro/nano based subsystems Embedded systems Advanced Grid Technologies, Systems and Services Open Platforms for software and services Research networking test beds Multimodal Interfaces ICT for Networked Businesses Collaborative Working Environments Access to and preservation of cultural and scientific resources eInclusion ICT for environmental Risk Management FET Proactive Initiative
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IST Advisory Group (ISTAG)
ISTAG has been set up to advise the European Commission on the overall strategy to be followed in carrying out the IST thematic
priority and related activities of research as well as on the orientations with respect to the European Research Area by
helping to stimulate the corresponding European research communities.
In the context of building an IST European Research Area, a key role of ISTAG will be to reflect and advise on the definition and implementation of a coherent research policy in Europe that should ensure the mastering of technology and its applications and help strengthen industrial competitiveness and address the main
societal challenges. It is through such an exercise that recommendations on priorities
and activities of Community-funded research in IST (IST in FP6) would be drawn.
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In 2004, ISTAG has set up working groups which will focus on the following themes
EU-wide initiatives - aims to provide recommendations for Europe-wide initiatives in the area of IST and the means to implement them
Experience and Application Research Centres - the theme has been proposed as a means of addressing the challenge of creating a human-centered approach to R&D in ambient intelligence. A novel aspect of Experience and Application Research is that it involves users in all stages of R&D and all stages of the product development lifecycle
Grid, distributed systems and service architectures - aims to provide recommendations for research orientations that will enable the development and deployment of services based on scalable and extremely large complex distributed systems supported by relevant software architectures, tools and platforms.
Grand challenges for IST - The continuation of the digital revolution relies upon our capacity to harness the complexity of building very small and very large ICT systems but also to endow them with new forms of intelligence.
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EU-wide initiatives
The mission of the EWI Working Group was to provide recommendations for Europe wide initiatives in the area of ICT and the means to implement such initiatives
The proposed criteria were agreed as: European Dimension – creating critical mass in Europe Urgency (from Society perspective) and political support Enhancing competitiveness, and providing a long term impact AMI based or building on other existing focus areas of expertise Not already pushed by existing market/ programmes/ initiatives
3 areas were chosen for further investigation by the WG, namely Health, Road Transport (specifically Road safety) and eGovernment.
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Experience and Application Research Centres Experience and Application Research has been
proposed as a means of addressing the challenge of creating a human-centred approach to research and development in ambient intelligence
Experience and Application Research can involve: user related research in interaction technologies for ambient
intelligence. Research on design processes for ambient intelligence. Development of methods for usability testing;
development of prototypes for ambient intelligence, based on the results of basic research. Integration of these prototypes and of existing prototypes into quasi-realistic user environments (for example, laboratories for living or work);
usability tests of ambient intelligence components in quasi-realistic environments;
feasibility tests and validation of ambient intelligence solutions in field environments (field trials).
17
Grid, distributed systems and service architectures
Six priority research themes are identified: Interoperability and integration Management of complex software-intensive
systems Semantics and knowledge Software development methodologies, tools,
and standards Trust, security and privacy Societal and commercial acceptance take-up
18
Grand Challenges in the Evolution of the Information Society
In preparation for the European Union’s 7th Framework Programme for research and technological development, the European Commission asked the IST Working Group on Grand Challenges to assess the future of IST technologies and their influence on European society.
The group’s aims were to identify grand challenges in information and communication technology (ICT), the pursuit of which will stimulate research and development in key areas and help the European Union to achieve its social and economic goals.
The group have sought to identify visionary projects leading to “concrete pictures of the future”, focusing 8-10 years in the future, that will demand interdisciplinary research and engineering in many key areas and that exemplify application domains of particular promise for growth in Europe.
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An Overview of the Grand Challenges in the Evolution of the IST (1)
The 100% Safe Car: The group envisions projects with ICT systems leading the realisation of the 100% safe automobile for eliminating traffic fatalities almost completely.
The Multilingual Companion: The group envisions grand projects that will make multilingual and cross-lingual information access and communication virtually automatic.
The Service Robot Companion: The group envisions the development of flexible home-care service robots, which will help people to care for themselves, improve their comfort of living and likely entertain them.
20
An Overview of the Grand Challenges in the Evolution of the IST (2)
The Self-Monitoring and Self-Repairing Computer: The group envisions a development of self-monitoring and self-repairing computing systems that will demonstrate the principle of software systems with greatly improved reliability.
The Internet Police Agent: To reap the full benefits of the Internet, we must maintain its further development and counter criminal and anti-social activities (SPAM, viruses, worms, fraud, etc.). The group envisions projects to develop an automated “police agent” that will prevent criminal and anti-social activities (SPAM, viruses, worms, fraud, etc.)..
The Disease and Treatment Simulator: The group envisions the development of a computational platform for simulating the function of a concrete disease. This simulator will enable medicines to be tested without putting people at risk, and will accelerate research into damaging diseases such as heart disease and cancer.
21
An Overview of the Grand Challenges in the Evolution of the IST (3)
The Augmented Personal Memory: The group envisions a project that will make it possible for people to create, preserve, sort and retrieve their own personal vast storehouse of the past, in the form of a personalised digital life diary and augmented memory assistant.
The Pervasive Communication Jacket: The group envisions a communications “jacket” that will enable the individual of tomorrow to exploit wireless communications technology for control of the objects in the house, at work or in public spaces .
The Personal Everywhere Visualiser: Visualisation is key for people to exploit the information revolution. A grand challenge is to develop a convenient personal and mobile visualisation system that will work anywhere and with minimal fuss, thereby enhancing our ability to harness tomorrow’s ICT capabilities.
22
An Overview of the Grand Challenges in the Evolution of the IST (4)
The Ultra-light Aerial Transport Agent: The group envisions an unmanned aerial transport agent for “small scale” logistics – for the transport of small packages and products from point to point, monitoring of crime, and helping in search and rescue operations.
The Intelligent Retail Store: The group envisions projects to realise the “intelligent retail store” – a store in which emerging ICT technologies are integrated in a way that brings more information, and efficiency to both retailers and their customers alike.
23
Strategic goals of ICT research in FP7
Enabling the future ICT development in Europe
Renewing and intensifying the research collaboration
ICT research is the heart of FP7
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ICT Research in FP7
Innovation from ICT use Focus on ambitious integrated targets Service oriented architectures
Realisation approaches End to end research integration Dissemination of research experience Wide innovation initiatives in the field of health, education etc.
Realisation instruments International collaboration Increasing of the ICT research Paying attention to the ICT research in the private sector
25
Socio-economic objectives of FP7
Strengthening the competitiveness of all industries in Europe
Reinforcing the competitive position in the industrial technologies
Supporting EU policiesStrengthening the science activities
26
Socio-economic objectives of the ICT research in FP7
Bringing the technology closer to the people and organizationsFurther miniaturizationTechnology convergenceLearning systems
New ICT applications
27
Realisation approaches of new ICT applications
Strengthening the ICT pillars Building the integrated intelligent environment
- Integrating multi technology applications Integrating multi-technology applications Personal environments Home environments Robotics ICT infrastructure for energy supply and etc.
Innovation promotion
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ICT pillars
Nano-electronics, miniaturization, smart systems
Embedded systems and architecturesNetworkingSoftware services and contentSimulationCognitive Systems Info-bio-nano convergence
29
Political aspects of the new ICT applications
Addressing the societal challenges – health, safety, environment etc.
Addressing business-business and work collaboration
Supporting creativity, content tools, education, culture
Security and trust
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Applicable Instruments
For ICT projects in FP7 – IPs, NoEs Joint technology initiatives – nano, mobility,
embedded system ERA coordination Infrastructure development - higher support of
GEANT, Grids, ERC (Electronic Resource Center), clean rooms etc.
Human resources International cooperation Access of ICT constituency to ERC scheme
31
FP7 Next steps
Inter-service consultation on commission proposal
Commission proposal elected on April 6Proposal for specific programmesWork programme 2007 preparationStart in January 2006 (finalised –
October 2008)
32
The Challenges for Europe in the ICT research
Research is increasingly affected by competitive aspects, with increasingly dynamic competitors in the world
If the recent investment trends in research and development continue, it is very likely that the European Union will fall increasingly behind the United States and Asia, while facing stiff and potentially catastrophic competition from developing nations, especially India and China.
Europe must now adopt a more voluntary behavior in supporting its research and in creating the conditions to attract investors and researchers
33
Conclusion
Europe is in a relatively good position in some key ICT domains (for example, microelectronics, mobile and fixed communication, consumer electronics).
It has however some weaknesses, with almost no computer and generic software industry.
The evolution of ICTs and their increasing pervasiveness offer opportunities to catch up and develop new leaderships (such as the creation of a level playing field for software and middleware infrastructure).
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Thank You for your attention