Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management

PSAM 7 - ESREL '04

Springer-Verlag London Ltd.

Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management

PSAM 7 - ESREL '04

June 14 - 18, 2004, Berlin, Germany

Volume 1

Edited by Cornelia Spitzer, Ulrich Schmocker and Vinh N. Dang

, Springer

Cornelia Spitzer, Dipl.-Math. TOV Siiddeutschland, Dudenstrasse 28, D-68167, Mannheim, Germany

Ulrich Schmocker, PhD Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate (HSK), CH-5232 Villigen-HSK, Switzerland

Vinh N. Dang, PhD Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI), CH-5232 Villigen PSI, Switzerland

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (7th: 2004 : Berlin, Germany)

Probabilistic safety assessment and management (PSAM7 -ESREL '04) : proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, 14-18 June 2004, Berlin, Germany 1. System safety - Congresses 2. Risk assessment - Congresses 3. Reliability (Engineering) - Congresses 4. Industrial safety - Congresses I. Title II. Spitzer, Cornelia III. Schmocker, Ulrich IV. Dang, VinhN. 620.8'6

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress

Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, this publication may only be reproduced, stored or transmitted, in any form or by any means, with the prior permission in writing of the publishers, or in the case of reprographic reproduction in accordance with the terms of licences issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside those terms should be sent to the publishers.

ISBN 978-1-4471-1057-6 ISBN 978-0-85729-410-4 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-0-85729-410-4

© Springer-Verlag London Originally published by Springer-Verlag London Limited in 2004. Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2004

The use of registered names, trademarks etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.

The publisher makes no representation, express or implied, with regard to the accuracy of the information contained in this book and cannot accept any legal responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions that may be made.

CONFERENCE ORGANISED

By

IAPSAM ESRA

International Association for Probabilistic Safety

Assessment and Management

European Safety and Reliability Association

Sponsored By

TOV Stiddeutschland Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate

Paul Scherrer Institut AREV A (Framatome ANP)

Basler & Hofmann Gottlieb Daimler and Karl Benz Foundation

Swissnuclear (Sub-Committee on Nuclear Energy) VGB PowerTech

In Cooperation With

ABS Consulting European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra

European Safety, Reliability & Data Association US Federal Aviation Administration

Idaho National Engineering & Environmental Laboratory Risknowlogy

Scientech, Inc. VDI - The Association of Engineers

CONFERENCE ORGANISATION

General Chair Cornelia Spitzer TOv Siiddeutschland Germany

Technical Programme Chair Ulrich Schmocker Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate (HSK) Switzerland

Associate General Chair Enrico Zio, Politecnico di Milano, Italy

Associate Technical Chairs Sabyasachi Chakraborty, HSK, Switzerland Michael Faber, ETHZ, Switzerland Stefan Hirschberg, PSI, Switzerland

Scientific Secretary Vinh N. Dang, PSI, Switzerland

Senior Advisory Board Ioannis A. Papazoglou, Demokritos, Greece, Chair Robert A. Bari, BNL, USA Bernd Bertsche, VDI, Germany Mario V. Bonaca, ACRS, USA P. Carlo Cacciabue, JRC, European Commission Yushi Fujita, Technova, Inc., Japan Gareth Parry, NRC, USA Axel Stepken, TOv Siiddeutschland, Germany

Conference Secretariat Jutta Rossel, TOv Siiddeutschland, Germany

IAPSAM Board of Directors

C. Spitzer, TOv Siiddeutschland, Germany, President G. E. Apostolakis, MIT, USA, Secretary A. A. Dykes, ABS Consulting, USA, Treasurer B. Ale, RIVM, The Netherlands D. C. Bley, Buttonwood Consulting, Inc., USA E. J. Bonano, Beta Corporation International, USA E. Ho1l6, VEIKI, Hungary S. Kondo, University of Tokyo, Japan J.-M. Lanore, IRSN, France A. Mosleh, University of Maryland, USA C. K. Park, KAERI, Korea N. O. Siu, NRC, USA

ESRAOfficers

C. Guedes Soares, 1ST, Portugal, Chair E. Zio, Politecnico di Milano, Italy, Vice-Chair P. Christensen, RISOE, Denmark, General Secretary P. van Gelder, Delft University, The Netherlands, Treasurer

Conference Organising Committee

R. Beutler, HSK, Switzerland (Young Generation) C. Bush, TOv, Germany (Webmaster) R. Eberle, TOv, Germany (Registration) R. Hofmann, HSK, Switzerland (Proceedings Compilation) E. Ho1l6, VEIKl, Hungary (Workshop) J. Kozyk, DSR, Germany (Local Arrangements) S. Kranz, TOv, Germany (Publicity) F. Niehaus, IAEA, Austria (Eastern European Participation) V. von Offenberg, KFG MA, Germany (Literary Quotation) P. Schmid, HSZ-T, Switzerland (Server Management) A. Schroer, TOv, Germany (Local Arrangements) U. Steininger, TOv, Germany (Exhibition) L. Tomik, CENS, Slovakia (Eastern European Participation) M. Weber, TOv, Germany (Technical Equipment) D. Willi, HSK, Switzerland (Information Technology) M. Winkelmann, TUv, Germany (Graphic)

TECHNICAL PROGRAMME COMMITTEE

Application Area Coordinators

Aviation and Space (G. R. McIntyre, US; C. Preyssl, NL) Biotechnology and Food (0. IGipelli, CH) Chemical Processing (J. S. Duffield, IT) Civil Engineering Structures (G. Schueller, AT) Energy Supply and Distribution (S. Kondo, JP) Environment and Sustainable Development (R. Friedrich, DE) Information Technology and Telecommunications (J. Gorski, PL) Insurance and Finance (B. Gerstner, DE; D. Karydas, US) Legal and Regulatory (H. Seiler, CH) Manufacturing (Y. Sato, JP) Medical and Health (J. Wreathall, US) Security (defense, national, facility) (S. E. Magnusson, SE) Transportation (land, maritime), Offshore ActivitieslFacilities (L. Bodsberg, NO; T. Matsuoka, JP) Waste Management and Decommissioning (C. McCombie, CH; S. Mohanty, US)

Technical Discipline Coordinators

General Aspects (D. C. Bley, US; P. Pyy, FR) Basic Methodologies and Tools (K. Furuta, JP; A. Mosleh, US) Consequence Assessment (J. Ha, KR; K. Koberlein, DE) Human and Organisational Factors (p. C. Cacciabue, In Structural Reliability Methods (M. Faber, CH; T. Takada, JP) Software Reliability and Safety (C. Smidts, US) PSAlQRA Applications (H. P. Berg, DE; K. Fleming, US) ManagementiDecision Making (C. Shepherd, UK)

Members

Aldemir, T. us Gheorghe, A. CH Lubarski, A. v. SK Argirov, J. P. BG Gmtlnder, F. CH Martorell, s. ES Aven, T. NO Goizio, L. IT Mazzini, M. IT Badreddin, E. DE GOrtz, R. DE Modarres, M. US Bareith, A. HU Gotz, K. DE Muramatsu, K. JP Becker, G. DE Guarro, S. US Pamme,H. DE Blackman, H. US Hahn, L. DE Patrik, M. CZ Bohnenblust, H. CH Hallbert, B. US Paulos, T. US Brand, E. DE Hauptmanns, U. DE Piccinini, N. IT Bubb, H. DE Herttrich, M. DE Ramalhoto, M. F. PT Burns, D. UK Hessel, P. CA Reer, B. CH Bye, A. NO Himanen, R. FI Richner, M. CH Camp, A. US Ho, V. HK Saglietti, F. DE Campolongo, F. IT Hofer, E. DE Salvi, O. FR Carcassi, M. IT Hollnagel, E. SE Samanta, P. US Cepin, M. SI Husarcek, J. SK Scheitler, W. DE Christou, M. IT Ionescu, D. C. RO Schoen, G. CH Cojazzi, G. IT Julius, J. A. US Schubert, B. DE Cooke, R. NL Kang, S. K. KR Seth, S. S. US Cooper, A. US Kastenberg, W. US Stamatelatos, M. US De Gelder, P. BE Kaufer, B. FR Steinberg, L. J. US Duffey, R. CA Kazarians, M. US Stephan, U. DE Duijm, N. J. DK Khatib-Rahbar, M. US Stnlter, O. BE Dutuit, Y. FR Kirchsteiger, C. NL Taniguchi, T. JP Eid, M. FR KIUgel, J.-U. CH Vaurio, J. FI Fabian, H. DE Knochenhauer, M. SE Villad6niga T., J. I. ES Fadier, E. FR Kolowrocki, K. PL Vinnem, J. E. NO Ferrante, M. IT Kortner, H. NO Virolainen, R. FI Fragola, J. US Kosmowski, K. PL Wahlstrom, B. FI Frangopol, D. M. US Kouzrnina, I. AT Werner, A. DE Frank, M. US KrUger, W. DE Wieringa, P. NL Fukuda, M. JP Labeau, P. E. BE Xue, D. CN

PSAM7 ESREL '04

PREFACE

Background

Following the first well-received joint conference in 1996, this year's Conference will mark the second occasion of the joint meeting of two successful conference series which are held regularly. The International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM) has returned to Europe after being held in New York (USA, 1998), Osaka (Japan, 2000), and Puerto Rico (USA, 2002) and is being organised jointly with the 2004 edition of the yearly European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL '04).

The combined conference in 1996, ESREL '96 - PSAM III, was held in Crete, Greece. This conference succeeded PSAM in 1991 in Beverly Hills and PSAM II in San Diego three years later, both in the USA. After moving outside of the USA, the PSAM conference series established its international character both in tenns of par­ticipants' nationalities as well as conference venue and regularly took place every two years.

The ESREL conferences are held annually and were established in 1990 in Brest, France, to be followed by London (UK), Copenhagen (Denmark), Munich (Ger­many), La Baule (France) and Boumemouth (UK). Following the joint staging of the ESREL '96 conference in conjunction with PSAM III, the ESREL conferences there­after took place in Lisbon (portugal), Trondheim (Norway), Munich (Germany), Edinburgh (UK), Turin (Italy), Lyon (France) and Maastricht (The Netherlands).

The objective of the joint PSAM 7 - ESREL '04 Conference is to provide a forum for the presentation and discussion of the latest developments in methodology and application of probabilistic and reliability methods in various industries. Innovations in methodology as well as practical applications in the areas of probabilistic safety assessment and of reliability analysis are presented and discussed during the Confer­ence and are documented in these Proceedings. The aim of these applications is the optimisation of technological systems and processes from the perspective of a risk­informed safety management while also taking economic and environmental aspects into account. This joint Conference in particular aims at the promotion and enhanced communication, the sharing of relevant experience and integration of approaches not only among the various industries but also on a truly global basis by bringing to­gether leading experts from all over the world.

PSAM 7 - ESREL '04 has been co-organised by the International Association for Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (IAPSAM) and the European Safety and Reliability Association (ESRA). Sponsoring and support by the

TOY SUddeutschland (TOY Energy and Systems Technology), the Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate (HSK) and the Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI) is particularly appreciated and gratefully acknowledged along with that of the other sponsoring and cooperating organisations.

Conference Topics

RISK IS THE BOW WAVE OF SUCCESS. Carl Amery, contemporary Essayist and Author

A ship lying calmly in the harbour does not cause any movement or make any waves in the water. The ship is unused, and when looked at across the water from a dis­tance, its presence is unlikely to be perceived or realised. But to meet its purpose and mission, the ship has to set sail to transport people and goods over the sea, or to enable pleasant travelling. Once it is underway, bow waves accompany the ship, substantiating its successful mission.

Modem technology is an essential part of society, promising and beneficial; accord­ingly, its mission is to be in operation and utilised, not to remain unused and calm. Nevertheless, risks are associated with modem technological applications - like bow waves with a sailing ship. These risks have to be managed and decided upon while taking economic and environmental aspects into account pursuing the aim of a truly successful utilisation.

In this spirit, contemporary researchers have continuously been working over the last four decades to provide modem societies with a systematic, self-consistent and co­herent framework for making decisions on at least one class of risks, those stemming from modem technological applications. Most of the effort has been spent in devel­oping methods and techniques for assessing the dependability of technological sys­tems, and assessing or estimating the levels of safety and associated risks. A wide spectrum of engineering, natural and economic sciences has been involved in this assessment effort.

Parts of this framework are supported by methods and techniques developed in the scientific areas, known as Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) and/or Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA), Reliability Availability Maintainability (RAM) analysis of systems (referred to also as Dependability) and last but not least Human Factors (HF) Analysis.

The developments have moved beyond pure theoretical research endeavours, they have been applied and utilised in real socio-technical environments and have become established - while modem technology continues to present new challenges and to raise new questions. A large class of decisions concerning technology is being made through various fonns of regulations. Further developing an appropriate regulatory framework in a global context while making suitable use of the capabilities of QRA

and RAMs techniques is the challenge currently facing the probabilistic and reliabil­ity methodology and safety analysis domain. Utilisation of existing approaches will also indicate the areas in need of further research and development.

Consequently, this Conference has broadly covered and discussed both well­established practices and open issues in the fields addressed by the Conference, identifYing areas where maturity has been reached and those where more develop­ment is needed. The papers contained in these Proceedings reflect a wide variety of disciplines, and a diverse range of application areas are represented.

Proceedings Organisation

Five hundred and ninety three (593) papers are included in these Proceedings and authored by scientists, researchers and practitioners originating from 40 different countries from all over the world.

The breadth and scope of the papers reflect the dedicated and committed efforts of the Application Area and Technical Discipline Coordinators as well as Members of the Technical Programme Committee (TPC). The work of these experts began with the solicitation of papers for the Conference and planning of sessions. Subsequently, all contributions have been reviewed by these experts and arranged into sessions according to thematic subjects in a Paper Selection Meeting.

In order to facilitate Conference attendance and the following of presentations, the papers in the Proceedings are arranged according to the sessions of the Technical Programme and the presentation sequence. The reader will hence identifY and locate the paper(s) of greatest interest to him or her in the Proceedings according to their order as given in the Technical Programme of the Conference.

The editors would like to take this opportunity to thank all those who have contrib­uted to the organisation of this Conference, in particular the Senior Advisory Board, the Conference Organising Committee, the Application Area and Technical Disci­pline Coordinators as well as the Members of the Technical Programme Committee.

Cornelia Spitzer TOV Siiddeutschland Germany

Ulrich Schmocker Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate (HSK) Switzerland

VinhN. Dang Paul Sche"er Institut (PSI) Switzerland

CONTENTS

Human Error Management

The Psychological Factors concerning Human Errors as the Cause of Labour Accidents in Japan Nakamura T., Usui S., Shinohara K., Kanda K . .............................................. .

CEHAM: How to Analyse the Effectiveness of Human Error Handling in Complex Operations Vi Giulio A., Cagno E., Leva M.e., Trucco P. .................................................. 7

The influence of the human error on naval accidents. A Fuzzy logic approach Carcassi M., Cerchiara G.M., Zambolin L, Romano G. .................................. 14

Human Error Analysis Support System for Maintenance Works Sakajo S., Wu W., Ohi T. ................................................................................... 20

PSA Reviews - Approaches and Results

Regulatory Review of a PSA. Benefits of Building a Replica Hessel P..................................................... ........................................................ 26

Lessons Learnt from Review of PSA Studies for VVER-type Reactors Tokmachev G., Lyubarskiy A. ............................................................................ 32

Regulatory Evaluation of the Miihleberg PSA Schulz R., Schoen G., Kim I.S., Zavisca M., Yuan Z, Khatib-Rahbar M. ......... 39

Overview of National Regulatory Practices for Using PSA in Slovakia Husiircek J. ........................................................................................................ 45

Managing Occupational Safety

Analysis of occupational hazards using fault trees Marx M., Knetsch T., Hauptmanns U................................................................ 52

Risk Assessment Of Occupational Accident through Fuzzy Model Mure S., Demichela M., Piccinini N.................................................................. 58

Risk Model for Occupational Accidents Applied to Offshore Supply Vessels Hansson L ....................... ..................... ............................................................ 64

International CCF Data Exchange

General Insights from the International Common Cause Failure Data Exchange (lCDE) Project Baranowsky P., Rasmuson D., Johanson G., Kreuser A., Pyy P., Werner W. ... 70

ICDE Project: Insights and Results from the Analysis of Common-Cause Failures of Batteries Morales R., Pereira B., Pyy P., Werner W. ....................................................... 76

Lessons Learnt from Data Collected in the ICDE Project Tirira J., Werner W. .......................................................................................... 82

Insights and Results from the Analysis of Common-Cause Failure Data Collected in the ICDE Project for Safety and Relief Valves Johanson G., Jonsson E., Jiinkiilii K., Pesonen J., Werner W. .......................... 88

Safety Functions and Barriers

Reflections on the Concept of Safety Barriers Sklet S., Hauge S. ... .......................................... ....... ............... ........................... 94

Analysing Safety Functions and Barriers - Experiences from Different Industrial Sectors Harms-Ringdahl L..................................................... ....................................... 100

Evaluating and Managing Safety Barriers in Major Hazard Plants Duijm N.J., Andersen H.B., Hale A., Goossens L, Hourtolou D. ..................... 110

Optimal Integration of Safety in complex system design using the Safety Modelling Language Schupp B.A., Hale A.R., Pasman H.J. ............................................................... 116

Approaches and Initiatives in Emergency Response

From Incident Response to Incident Response Management Johnsen S.O., R¢stad L., Haugset B., Dahl M.B. .............................................. 122

Emergency Response Optimization for Major Hazard Industrial Sites Georgiadou P.S., Papazoglou l.A., Kiranoudis C.T., Markatos N.C. ............... 128

A Risk - Informed Approach to Decision Making in Rescue Operations Rake E.L ........................................................................................................... 134

Analysis and Design of Dependable Software Systems

Integrating Software into PRA: A Test-Based Approach Li B., Li M., Smidts C. ............................................................ ........................... 140

Implementing Software Safety on the Space Shuttle Cockpit Avionics Upgrade (CAU) Project: A PRA Case for an Initial Qualitative Approach McLeod H.C. ..................................................................................................... 146

Validation of a Software-Related Failure Mode Taxonomy Lee A., Smidts C., Li B., Li M. ........................................................................... 152

Conditional Risk Model Concept for Critical Space Systems Software Guarro S., Yau M., Oliva S. .............................................................................. 158

Me Simulation - Industrial Applications

Optimized Monte Carlo Simulations for System Reliability Analysis Campioni L, Scardovelli R., Vestrucci P. ......................................................... 164

Embedding local search procedures into Genetic Algorithms for the optimisation of industrial systems Eisinger S., Zio E. ............................................................................................. 170

Dynamic Reliability Analysis for Automotive Applications Woltereck M., Hauschild J., Meyna A. .............................................................. 179

Legal and Regulatory Aspects of Risk-Informed Decision-Making

Risk Based Regulation and Cost Effectiveness before the Courts: Experiences of a judge Seiler H. ............................................................................................................ 186

Substance Prioritisation for the Development of EU Acute Exposure Toxicity Thresholds: Risk-Informed Decision Making Trainor M., Macbeth R., Balmforth H., Ridgway P. ......................................... 192

Uncertainty Assessment in Regulatory Judgement and Decisionmaking Faust B. ............................................................................................................ 198

Regulatory Process/Structure for Future Nuclear Power Plant Licensing Drouin M., King T., Singh A., Lehner J., Mubayi V., Pratt T. ........................... 204

Bridges· Reliability Aspects

Robust Reliability-based Design Optimization of Suspension Bridges Catallo L, Bontempi F., Biondini F., Frangopol D.M...................................... 211

Handling Uncertainties in Optimal Design of Suspension Bridges with Special Emphasis on Loads Sgambi L, Bontempi F., Biondini F., Frangopol D.M...................................... 217

Probabilistic Fatigue Analysis of Improved Tubular Bridge Joints Considering Multiple Crack Initiation Sites Walbridge S., Nussbaumer A..................................................... ........................ 223

Aviation - Airplane Crash Risks

Analysis of the Risks of the Population due to Airplane Crashes Around ZUrich Airport Bienz A.F. .......................................................................................................... 229

Airport Public Safety Zones: Part 1 - Risk Model Derivation Davies P.A., Quinn D.J. .................................................................................... 236

Airport Public Safety Zones: Part 2 - Risk Model Application Davies P.A., Quinn D.J. .................................................................................... 242

A new determination of air crash frequencies and its implications for operation permissions Weidl T., Klein G. .............................................................................................. 248

Cognitive Analysis and Simulation

A Study on the Development of a Systematic Framework to Construct Diagnosis Procedures Park J., Jung W., Kim Jaewhan, Ha J. .............................................................. 254

Optimization of Task Allocation through Human Cognitive Simulation: Levels of Automation and Human Behaviors Furukawa H., /nagaki T., Niwa Y. .................................................................... 260

Analysis of Cognitive Activities of Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant Control Room Operators in Case of Abnormal Conditions Sepanloo K., Jafarian R. ................................................................................... 266

Multi-Agent Situation Awareness Error Evolution in Air Traffic Blom H.A.P., Stroeve S.H. ................................................................................. 272

PSA Results - Level 2 and Severe Accidents

Level 2 Full Power and Shutdown PSA of the J. Bohunice VI NPP Kovacs Z, Pnacek I...................................................... ..................................... 278

Main Results of a Level 2 PSA Study Completed for Paks NPP Elter J., Gado J., Hollo E. ................................................................................. 284

Modelling of Severe Accident Phenomena in Level 2 PSA for Paks NPP Techy Z, Lajtha G. ............................................................................................ 290

Level 2 PSA for the VVER 440/213 Dukovany Nuclear Power Plant Dienstbier J., Hustak S., Rydl A. ....................................................................... 296

Proactive Approaches to Risk Management

Risk Management Policies in Selected OECD Countries - An OECD Futures Project Lahidji R. ......................... .................................................................................. 302

Investigation of Nuclear Plant Safety Utilizing an Analytical Risk Management Model Hess S.M., Gaertner J.P. ................................................................................... 308

New frontiers in the management of explosion hazard Romano A., Fidelibus A..................................................... ................................ 315

Error States - Proactive Learning, Forgetting and Elimination using Safety Management Duffey R., Saull J..................................................... .......................................... 321

Component Failure Databases

The Centralised Component Reliability Database for PSA Purposes ZEDB -Status, Evaluation 2002, Trends Blombach J., Buckermann R., Schubert B. ........................................................ 328

Evaluation and Comparison of Estimation Methods for Failure Rates and Probabilities Vaurio J., Jiinkiilii K..................................................... ..................................... 334

The German Utilities' Efforts to Achieve Current Data for Probabilistic Safety Assessment Wohlstein R. ...................................................................................................... 340

Reliability Data Collection and Processing for Romanian TRIGA-SSR 14 MW Reactor for PSA use Mladin D., Mladin M., Cristea D. ..................................................................... 346

Barrier Analysis

Barrier Change Analysis Method 0ien K., Hauge S., Sklet S., Monsen J. .............................................................. 352

Defining safety functions and safety barriers from fault and event trees analysis of major industrial hazards Debray B., Delvosalle c., Fievez c., Pipart A., Londiche H., Hubert E. .......... 358

Barrier Analysis Analysed in MORT Perspective Kingston J., Nertney R., Frei R., Schallier P., Koornneef F. ............................ 364

From Incidents to Proactive Actions: A Bottom-up Approach to Identification of Safety Critical Functions Tinmannsvik R.K., Rosness R. ........................................................................... 370

Emergency Response. Methods and Simulations

Development of Management of Nuclear Power Plant Fire Situations Hukki K., Holmberg J.E. ................................................................................... 376

A Bayesian Network Approach to Accident Management and Estimation of Source Terms for Emergency Planning Zavisca M., Kahlert H., Khatib-Rahbar M., Grindon E., Ang M. ..................... 383

Multi-agent Simulation of Emergency Response In Nuclear Disaster Kanno T., Morimoto Y., Furuta K. .................................................................... 389

The use of Virtual Reality Training for Emergency Response Personnel van Wijngaarden M. .......................................................................................... 395

Software Issues in PRA

Can Artificial Intelligence Be Safe? Nordland O. .. ........... ... ........ ....... ....................................................................... 400

A Common Framework for Design and Safety Analyses using Formal Methods Deneux J., Akerlund O. ..................................................................................... 406

Risk in the Aspect of Safety and Reliability of Autonomous System Drobiszewski J., Smalko z................................................................................ 412

An Information Retrieval Terminology for Model-Based Risk Assessment Thunem A.P.-J., Fredriksen R., Gran B.A. ........................................................ 418

Me Simulation in Structural Mechanics - Methods and Applications

Monte-Carlo Simulation - A Powerful Tool to Support Experimental Activities in Structure Reliability Yuritzinn T., Eid M., Chapuliot S., Masson R., Dahl A., Moinereau D. ............ 424

The Benefit of Using Sampling Techniques with Adaptive Meta-Models in System Reliability Analysis Schueremans L, Van Gernert D. ....................................................................... 431

Application of Monte-Carlo-Simulation in Structural Reliability Curbach M., Proske D. ..................................................................................... 437

Methods and Tools to Support Risk-Informed Decisions

Application of Mixture Priors to Assessment of Performance Atwood C.L, Youngblood R. W. ........................................................................ 444

Risk-Informed Decision Making with PARAGONTM Shanley L, True D., Parsley E., Steinmetz J., Burchill W. ................................ 450

A Study of Implications of Using Importance Measures in Risk-Informed Decisions Azarkhail M., Modarres M. ............................................................................... 456

A Quantitative Approach to Risk-Informed Safety Significance Categorization with an Early Expert Participatory Ra J.S., Seong P.R. ........................................................................................... 462

Risk Management and Design of Structures

Functional, Structural and Human Related Safety Measures in Multiple Use of Space Suddle S.l. ......................................................................................................... 468

Applications of Risk Management in the Design and Construction of Infrastructure Duijvestijn A.M. W. (Bart), Kuijper H.K. T., Voortman H.G. ............................. 475

Effectivity of Risk Management for Design & Construct Projects of Large Contractors Vastert J.G., van Gelder P.H.A.J.M. ................................................................. 481

Modeling Consequences due to Failure of Extraordinary Structures Faber M.H., Kabler 0., Fontana M. ................................................................. 488

Aviation· Air Traffic Applications

Automatic Dependent Surveillance in the Air Traffic System - a Probabilistic Approach Navarrete M., Cugnasca P. . .................................................................. ............ 494

An Application of Monte Carlo Method for Estimating the Longitudinal Collision Risk of the NOPAC Route in an ADS Environment Nagaoka S. ........................................................................................................ 501

Human-Machine Simulation System for Safety Evaluation in Air Traffic Control Inoue S., Furuta K. ............................................................................................ 507

An Evolutive Environment for Development of Free-Flight Oliveira I, Cugnasca P., Camargo J. Jr., Fonseca R., Silva J. ........................ 513

Human Factors Applications

Safety Changes Related to ICT Maintenance Systems in Shipping Ose G.O................................................... .......................................................... 519

Working Equipment Design: Comparison of Safety Modalities Integration in Two Design Departments De la Garza C., Fadier E. ................................................................................. 525

Information Retrieval Using Ontology for Sharing Knowledge on Safety Ogure T., Furuta K. ........................................................................................... 531

Political Management Issues and Societal Risk Trade-off for the Built Environment Corotis R.B. ....................................................................................................... 537

PSA Applications· Nuclear and Irradiation Facilities

PSA Application on the Tokai Reprocessing Plant Ishida M., Nakano T., Morimoto K., Nojiri I. .................................................... 543

Safety analysis in the LBE Cooled XADS plant tbrough an integrated use ofHAZOP, FAULT TREE and thermalhydraulic transient analyses Aliona S., Amato V., Casamirra M., Castiglia F., Giardina M. ........................ 549

Probabilistic Safety Analysis of the International Fusion Materials Irradiation Facility Burgazzi L ........................................................................................................ 555

Probabilistic Safety Assessment for a Large Industrial Irradiator LOpez R., Cuecuecha M.E., Mardian J. ............................................................. 561

Risk Management Decisions

Precautionary Risk Decision-Making Rosqvist T., Tuominen R. ................................................................................... 567

Risk and Decision Analysis Techniques Applied to Complex Facility Asset Management Liming J.K., Dykes A.A. .................................................................................... 573

Multicriterion Problem of NPP Lifetime Management Gulina 0., Salnikov N. ...................................................................................... 579

A Paradigm for Energy and Transportation System Surety in the 21st Century Covan J.M. ........................................................................................................ 585

Statistical Modelling and Reliability Models

Statistical Modelling and Analysis of Failure and Inspection Data for a Railway Line Dolven O.F., Lindqvist B.H., Hokstad P.R. ....................................................... 591

Alternative Reliability Prognosis Models for Automotive Components Meyer M., Meyna A., Pauli B. ........................................................................... 597

Research on components' durability demonstration and verification test for armored vehicles Wu w., Xiao S.-w., Hu F.-h. .............................................................................. 603

Managing Safety Barriers

Managing safety barriers and controls at the workplace Hale A., Goossens L, Ale B., Bellamy L, Post J., Oh J., Papazoglou I.A. ....... 608

The barrier requirements in the Norwegian Petroleum Regulations Nielsen L .......................................................................................................... 614

Integrated Barrier Analysis in Operational Risk Assessment in Offshore Petroleum Operations

Vinnem J.E., Aven T., Hauge S., Seljelid J., Veire G......................................... 620

Emergency Management Systems and Lessons Learned

SiGES: an innovative emergency management system for high density industrial sites Sciallero E., Podesta F., Spadon R., Catuzzato F. ......................... ................... 626

Italian explosives depots from TULPS to Seveso II: a proposal for emergency planning Dadone P.N. ............................................................................ ........ ..... ............. 632

Lessons learnt from a Mediterranean flood (Gard. September 2002) Huet P., Baumont G. ......................................................................................... 638

Risk- and Vulnerability Analyses in Crisis Management of Extreme Events - A Pilot Study Abrahamsson M., Magnusson S.E., Petersen K. ............................................... 644

Software Testing and Operating Experience

Human Reliability Analysis Related Issues in IT-System Operation: A Case Study Mock R., Scherrer R. ......................................................................................... 650

Insights from Analysis of Procedural Errors in Telecommunications Industry Chang Y.H., Mosleh A., Macwan A. .................................................................. 656

The Risk Effect Analysis of the Digital Safety-Critical Systems in a Nuclear Power Plant Kang H.G., lang S.-C., Ha 1. ............................................................................ 663

Study on Operative Reliability of Safety-Related Control Systems Fukuda T., Kuroi K., Fukuda G., Shimizu H. .................................................... 669

Dynamic Reliability

A Numerical Scheme to Solve Integro-Differential Equations in the Dynamic Reliability Field Cocozza-Thivent c., Eymard R., Mercier S....................................................... 675

Implementation of hybrid Petri nets - Lessons learned from their application to a SMR unit Kermisch c., lAbeau P.-E., lArdeux E., Chabot 1.-L ...................................... 681

The Stimulus-Driven Theory of Probabilistic Dynamics as a Framework for Probabilistic Safety Assessment Izquierdo 1.M., lAbeau P.-E. ............................................................................ 687

Controllable Dynamic System Reliability Models for Risk Assessment of Process Control Systems Petkov G., Matsuoka T. ..................................................................................... 694

Risk-Infonned Decision-Making in Regulatory Procedures

Regulatory Use ofPSA in Belgium - Status. Lessons Learned and Perspectives Hulsmans M., De Gelder P., Gryffroy D., Van haesendonck M., Tombuyses B. .................................................................................................... 701

Current trends in Risk-Informed changes to Limiting Conditions for Operation Martorell S., Villanueva 1.F., Nebot Y., Carlos S., Serradell V. ....................... 707

Option 2 Risk-Informed Regulation Pilot Application to Cofrentes NPP Borondo L, Fiol M.J., Vazquez T., Deltoro S. .................................................. 714

An Approach to Definition of Large Release Khatib-Rahbar M., Karimi R., lAntaron A., Calvo 1. ....................................... 720

Fire Analyses and Structures

Fire prevention in underground works: software modelling applications Fileppo E., Marmo L, Debernardi ML, Demetri K., Pertusio R. ................... 726

Fire Risk Analysis and Modelling of the Relevant Scenarios: towards a Performance Based Fire Engineering and Protection Approach Fiorentini L, Rossini V., Coppola G., Ferrari A. ............................................. 732

Rapid Assessment of the Consequences of Fire in Sub-surface Infrastructure Voortman H.G., Duijvestijn A.M. W. (Bart), Nieuwenhuizen J.B. ..................... 738

Applications and Impacts of a Real Fire in a Residential Building for Analysis the Level of Risk for Life Ficarella A., Lala R., Perago A., Laforgia D. ................................................... 745

Maintenance and Optimisation in Aviation and Aerospace

Stochastic Process for Aeronautical Design and Maintenance Optimization Sommerhalter B., Sauvage D. ........................................................................... 751

Emergency in-service air fleet data analysis Thiebault C., Sauvage D. .................................................................................. 758

Maintenance Wire Risk Evaluation for Space Shuttle Mulvihill R.J., Cockrell J. ................................................................................. 766

New Methods of Solving Multidimensional Non-Linear Optimisation Problems-Application Thereof to Construct Air-Line Flight Schedules Jaiwiflski J., Klimaszewski S., Zurek J., Gawrylczyk J. .................................... 773

Risk Assessment Applications in Various Industries

Chemistry and Metallurgy Research Replacement (CMRR) Facility Risk Analysis Study Vigil M., Gordon D., Stringfield L, Durrer R., Greutman M. .......................... 779

Bounding Fire Accident for LANL Plutonium Facility Richardson J., Gordon D., Tell R., Kern K., Vigil M., Romero J. ..................... 785

Integrating Technical Failures, Human Error and Public Misbehaviour in Rail Risk Assessment Bums D. ............................................................................................................ 791

Specific Risk Management Projects

System Safety Approach and Management for the Taiwan High Speed Rail Project Liu M. W.-L, Robertson S., Saleem A. ............................................................... 797

Early Warning on Vehicle Defects and Recall System Meyer R.E. ......................................................................................................... 803

Safety Analysis of the Transrapid Transportation System: Methods and Case Study Gmiinder F.K., Hiirzeler c., Kerland G. ........................................................... 808

Use of Bayesian Belief Networks for risk management in energy distribution Deleuze G., Bertin H., Dutfoy A., Pierlot S., Pourret O. ................................... 814

Modelling of Dependent Failures and Parameter Estimation

Dependency Defence - How to protect against dependent failures Hellstrom P., Johanson G., Bento J.-P. ............................................................ 819

Developing Soft Factors Inputs to Common Cause Failure Models Zitrou A., Bedford T., Walls L .......................................................................... 825

Analysis and Modelling of Dependent Failures Knochenhauer M., Mankamo T., Porn K. ......................................................... 831

Parameter Estimation for the Process Oriented Simulation (POS) Model for Common Cause Failures Berg H.P., Gortz R., Schimetschka E. ............................................................... 837

Safety Culture Assessment and Analysis

Safety Culture: Analysis and Intervention Wilpert B., Fahlbruch B. ................................................................................... 843

Safety Culture Assessment - Methods and Indicators, Results of a German Research Project Schott H., Balfanz H.-P., Junge R.-D., Linsenmaier B., Strater 0., Kallenbach-Herbert B., Sickert M. .................................................................... 850

Can safety culture in differing organizations mean the same thing? Harvey J., Erdos G., Jackson H., Dennison S. .................................................. 857

Issues Related To Safety Culture Apostolakis G.E., Bonaca M. V. ......................................................................... 863

Assessing and Managing Proliferation Risk

Assessing the Proliferation Resistance of Innovative Nuclear Fuel Cycles Bari R., Roglans J., Denning R., Mladineo S. ......... ........... ..................... ... ....... 869

How useful can Probability Risk Assessment tools be for Proliferation Resistance assessment Greneche D., Xerri C. ....................................................................................... 875

A Decision Analysis Based Methodology for the Assessment of the Proliferation Resistance of Nuclear Power Systems Papazoglou I.A., Bari R.A. .. ...................... ............................................ ............ 882

Study of Proliferation Risk for Nuclear Fuel Cycles with Plutonium Breeding Korobeynikov V. V., Tikhomirov B.B., Oussanov V.I., lougai S. V., Pshakin G.M., Chebeskov A.N. ....................................................................................... 888

Software Development Techniques and Tools

Efficient reliability growth modelling for industrial software failure data Elbel B., Maeckel O. ......................................................................................... 895

A Framework for Dependable Development Process of Complex Computerised Systems Thunem A.P.-J. .................................................................................................. 902

Benchmarking Software Reliability Growth Models Hu Y., Zhang W., Li B. ... ................................................................................... 908

Uncertainty and Dependence Modelling

Availability Assessment of Multi-State Systems with Operational Dependence Zio E., Marella M., Podofillini L...................................................................... 914

Markovian modelling with data uncertainties Chiiteiet E., Kouta R.......................................................................................... 920

Modelling Dependent Component Failures with Domino Effects Rakowsky U.K., Schneeweiss W.G. ................................................................... 926

Reliable operation of Wastewater Treatment Plants by Taking into Account Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainities in the Design Process Knetsch T., Hauptrnanns U. .............................................................................. 932

Risk-Infonned Decision-Making Cases I

Risk-Informed Decision Making in Generic Safety Issue Resolution and Rulemaking Weerakkody S.D. ............................................................................................... 938

An Argument for Using Probabilistic Safety Assessment in Maritime Domain: Some Now, but More Later Szwed P.S. ......................................................................................................... 944

Asset Management and Cost Saving Maintenance Strategy Based on Risk­Informed Decision Making Kauer R., Sacher H. ............ .............................................................................. 951

A Quantitative Assessment on Limiting Conditions for Operations Using a Concept of System Dynamics Kang K., lae M. .......................................... ....................................................... 957

Current Issues in Human Reliability Analysis (HRA)

Analysis of Human Decision-based Errors of Commission in Accident Scenarios Kim laewhan, lung W, Park l. ........................................................................ 964

Commission Error Causes Identified from Operating Experience Reer B....................................................... ......................................................... 971

Using Information from Operating Experience to Inform Human Reliability Analysis HaUbert B.P., Gertman D.I., Marble i., Lois E., Siu N. .................................... 977

Task Complexity as a Factor for Human Reliability Assessment Braarud P.(lJ., Laumann K., Svengren H..................................................... ...... 983

Risk Assessment - Case Studies

Estimation of Electrical Systems Impact into Total Risk from NPP Lankin M. ........................................................................ ..... ............................. 989

The Evaluation of Reliability and Success Criteria by the Thermal Hydraulic Analysis of Auxiliary Feedwater System using PSA Technology for the Improved KSNP Kim i.-G., Kim M.-R., Kang S.-K., Park H.-G., iung G.J., Park K.S................ 995

The effect of Relay Protection on the Substation Reliability Pottonen L, Pulkkinen U., Koskinen M. ........................................................... 1002

Risk Reduction Through Partial Stroke Testing Houtermans M.J.M., Rouvroye i-L, Karydas D.M. .......................................... 1008

Improving Risk Management Systems

Review of the Major Accident Risk Assessment and Risk Management System in Serbia Stojanovic M.B., iovasevic-Stojanovic M. ........................................................ 1014

Definition of Safety Integrity Levels and the Influence of Assumptions. Methods and Principles Used Schiibe H. ........................... ............................................................................... 1020

September 11. Columbia. Davis-Besse. and PRA: Business as Usual? Siu N., Mosleh A., Meacham B. ......................................................................... 1026

Linking Risk Analysis to Safety Management Trbojevic v. ....................................................................................................... 1032

Data Analysis - Mathematical Methods

Case Studies of EM Algorithm with Masked Data Tan Z ................................................................................................................ 1038

Treatment of Partial Homogeneity in Population Variability Analysis of Data Groen F.J., Mosleh A., Droguett E.L ............................................................... 1044

Predictive Distributions for Detecting Departures from an Uncertain Baseline Atwood C.L.................................................... .................................................... 1051

Safety Culture Assessment and Comparison

Comparison of Organisational Cultures at Two NPP Maintenance Units -When is Maintenance Work Motivating and Meaningful? Reiman T., Oedewald P., Rollenhagen C. ......................................................... 1057

Safety Culture aboard Tankers Hllvold J.J. ......................................................................................................... 1064

Assessment and Improvement of Safety Culture across Borders in European Railways Steiro T., Johnsen S.O., Bergersen C.E.B., Tungland M................................... 1071

Experience on Applying the Developed Safety Assessment System to Various Industries Takano K., Hasegawa N., Hirose A., Hayase K., Sasou K. ............................... 1077

Security and Safeguards - Risk Modelling and Applications

Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis of Safeguards Logic Trees Cojazzi G.G.M., Renda G., Contini S. ............................................................... 1083

Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Techniques Applied to Commercial Nuclear Power Plant Security Evaluation Liming J.K., Dykes A.A. .................................................................................... 1089

Development of a PSA-based Vital Area Identification Methodology for the Physical Security of Nuclear Power Plants Park C.-K., Jung W.S., Yang J.-E., Kang H.G. ................................................. 1096

PRA of the Abandoned Chemical Weapons in China Epstein S., Nishimura S., Wakefield D. ............................................................. 1102

Software Testing and Fault Detection

Verification of Fault Detection Capability with Diversified Software Beckman H., Warholm L., Endresen J. ............................................................. 1108

A Data Flow Approach to Testing Object-Oriented Java-Programs Oster N., Dom R.-D. ......................................................................................... 1114

Test Automation of Embedded System Software Han S.-S., Park S.-D., Kal D.-S., Kim E.-f.................................................. ...... 1120

Diagnostic Tests for Real Time Systems Nourel/ath M., EI-Ghazouani K. ....................................................................... 1128

System Reliability Modelling

MFFOP Technology for Setting Reliability Requirements Todinov M. T. ...................................................................................... ... ........ .... 1134

On the cost function for periodically inspected standby safety systems Zequeira R.I., Berenguer C. .............................................................................. 1140

Reliability and Safety of Autonomous Electric Energy Supply Systems Gabel D., Hauptmanns U. ................................................................................. 1146

Improvement of the GO-FLOW Methodology Matsuoka T. ....................................................................................................... 1152

Risk-Informed Decision-Making Cases II

Mitigating Systems Performance Index Baselines Eide S., Zeek D. ................................................................................................. 1158

CostlBenefit Considerations at Swiss NPPs Richner M., Zimmermann S., Kliigel f.-U. ........................................................ 1163

Development of Radiolysis Gas Counter Measures based on Risk Informed Classifications Schubert B., Kleen U. ........................................................................................ 1169

From Risk to RAMS informed decision-making on changes to TSM Martorell S., Villanueva f.F., Nebot Y., Carlos S., Serradell V., Sanchez A. .... 1174

International Space Station PRA

Strategic Decision-Making Utilizing Probabilistic Risk Assessments for the International Space Station Program Perera f., Smith C. ............................................................................................ 1181

The International Space Station Probabilistic Risk Assessment Fire Analysis. Sensitivity Studies for Critical Variables. and Necessary Areas of Additional Development HeardA., VitaliR .............................................................................................. 1188

Derivation of Failure Rates and Probability of Failures for the International Space Station Probabilistic Risk Assessment study Vitali R., Lutomski M.G..................................................................................... 1194

PSA for Depressurization Hazards in ISS Module Sato T., Takeuchi N., Seike T., Oga K., Takada S., Sato Y. ............................... 1200

HRA Data and Analysis

Nuclear Action Reliability Assessment (NARA): A Data-Based HRA Tool Kirwan B., Gibson H., Kennedy R., Edmunds J., Cooksley G., Umbers I. ........ 1206

Improving the Empirical Basis for Human Reliability Assessment by Simulator Experiments Bye A., Braarud P.0., Smith C. ......................................................................... 1212

Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) Good Practices Kolaczkowski A., Forester J., Lois E., Parry G., Bley D. .................................. 1219

Developments in Seismic PSA

Seismic PSA Studies conducted for Japan's Light Water Reactors Kondo K., Koriyama T., Nishio M., Fukuda M., Hirano M. ............................. 1226

Challenges to future Seismic PRA Klugel J.-U., Rao S., Short S. ............................................................................ 1232

Development of Fire Risk Assessment Method Caused by Earthquake (III) Mitomo N., Okazaki T., Matsuoka T.................................................................. 1239

Computer Model for Coincidental Failure of Nuclear Power Plants due to Seismic Events in a Multi-Unit Site Hakata T........................................................ .................................................... 1245

Risk Management - Special Issues and Modelling

Semi-Quantitative Risk Based Technical Assessment for Control Involving Ionizing Radiation Sources Across a Large Organization Ellasehuk B., Hugron R., Kupea S. ................................................................... 1252

Governance of the territory around hazardous industrial plants: decision process and technological risk Hubert E., Debray B., Londiehe H. ................................................................... 1258

Optimised Use of Safety Interventions Skjong R., Vanem E..................................................... ...................................... 1264

Socio-Technical Probabilistic Risk Assessment: Its Capabilities and Limitations Kanki B.G., Marx D., Hale M.J......................................................................... 1270

Systems and Maintenance I

The Incorporation of Experienced-based Data into the Markov Maintenance Model and an Impact of Changed Maintenance Intervals on Plant Reliability Oyama Y., Kirimoto Y., Yoshida T., Miyata K., Sakuramoto K. ........................ 1276

Neural Networks for Aeronautical Components Maintenance and Management Fedele L., Tronei M........................................................................................... 1283

Power System Fault Data and Time Series Stojkov M., MikuliCic V., Nikolovski S. ............................................................. 1289

Safety Culture and Management

Implementation of "What-. How- and Why- Learning" in Offshore Drilling Planning Madsen B.-E., Pollard M., Helgesen O. ............................................................ 1295

"Smarter Together" in Offshore Drilling - a Successful Action Research Project? Alteren B., Sveen J., Guttormsen G., Madsen B.-E., Kiev R., Helgesen O. ....... 1302

Alienation as an Explanatory Factor for Increased Risk on Service Vessels in the North Sea Kongsvik T., Bye R. ........................................................................................... 1309

National culture and safe work practice - A comparison between Filipinos and Norwegian seafaring professionals Lamvik G.M., Bye R. ......................................................................................... 1315

Infrastructure Security Risks

Risk-based Planning of Security Measures for the Protection of the Swiss Defence Infrastructure Niederhaeuser F., Christen P., Holenstein M. .................................................. 1322

Security Risk Assessment Methodology for Communities (RAM-C™) Jaeger C. ........................................................................................................... 1328

Managing Infrastructure Security Risk Rees D.C., Rubin K.1. ........................................................................................ 1333

Behaviour of Market Players and Risk Assessment of Network Congestion in Electric Power Supply System Toyoda J., Minazawa K., Iwaita H. ................................................................... 1339

Assessment of Safety· Critical Software Systems I

Designing Petri Nets for Systems with Component Failure Dependencies Schneeweiss W.G., Rakowsky U.K. ................................................................... 1345

Diversity Assessment of Nuclear Power Plants Instrumentation and Control Systems Kharchenko V., Yastrebenetsky M., Sklyar V. ................................................... 1351

Safety integrity evaluation framework for fault-tolerant control logic according to IEC 61508 Suyama K. ........... .......... ... ... ... ......... .............................................. ........ ........ .... 1357

A Generalisation of the Beta Factor Model Hokstad P. ......................................................................................................... 1363

Reliability Analysis Methods

Taylor Series Finite Difference for Reliability Assessment at the Design Stage Zwingmann X., Ai"t-Kadi D., Mutel B., Coulibaly A. ......................................... 1369

A Practical Method for Accelerated Calculations of System Reliability Parameters Muir I., Nanu L, FormaniakA. ........................................................................ 1375

Conjoint Modelling with Extended Coloured Stochastic Petri Net and Reliability Block Diagram for System Analysis Pozsgai P., Bertsche B. ..................................................................................... 1382

A Neuro-Fuzzy Reliability Optimisation Method Considering Life Cycle Costs Savic R., Rakowsky U.K. ................................................................................... 1388

Integrated Safety Assessment: Utilisation of PSA in Regulatory Procedures

Introduction of an Integrated Regulatory Safety Oversight in Switzerland Schmocker U., Schoen G.M., Theiss K., Neumann w., Keel A., Loy D............. 1395

Extended Application of PSAs in Regulatory Procedures: Practice and Concept of an Integrated Safety Assessment Spitzer C., Wildermann T. ................................................................................. 1401

Risk Informed Licensing. Regulation and Safety Management of Nuclear Power Plants In Finland Virolainen R., Sandberg J. ................................................................................ 1408

Risk-informed Decision Making at the Hungarian Nuclear Safety Authority Macsuga G. ....................................................................................................... 1415

Civil Engineering· Methods and Models

Calibration Study of Eurocodes Holickj M. ......................................................................................................... 1421

Structural Reliability Assessment Based on Discrete Approximation Elegbede C. ....................................................................................................... 1427

Modeling of Random Fatigue Crack Growth Lifetime Zou X. ................................................................................................................ 1433

Methods for Reliability Parameters Estimation and Analysis Toolkit Alzbutas R. ........................................................................................................ 1440

Space Systems Risk Assessment and Management

Recent Risk Management Initiatives at the European Space Agency - ESA Part 1 Preyssl C., Sarah M.-G. .................................................................................... 1447

Recent Risk Management Initiatives at the European Space Agency - ESA Part 2 Preyssl C., Sarah M.-G. .................................................................................... 1453

Improvement of Product Robustness by PRA Concept in J AXA Tohara K., Yamane T. ....................................................................................... 1459

The Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Framework - A Structured Multiphase Multi-level Modeling Approach for Large and Complex Engineered Systems

Hsu F., Railsback J. .......................................................................................... 1466

HRA - Current Use of Simulators

Simplified HRA modelling compared to detailed modelling, does it give any significant difference of the result for a PSA? Jacobsson P..................................................... .................................................. 1474

Human Reliability Data from Simulator Experiments: Principles and Context­Sensitive Analysis Collier S., Ludvigsen J. T., Svengren H. ............................................................ 1480

Simulator Data Collection Requirements for HRA Studies Spurgin A.J., Bareith A., Karsa Z ..................................................................... 1486

Use of Simulator Data to Support Nonresponse Human Errors Assessments Arion I., Hannaman G. W. ................................................................................. 1492

External Events PSA

Guidance for External Events Analysis Knoehenhauer M., Louko P..................................................... .......................... 1498

Stochastic Effects of Potential Lightning Impact on Safety Systems Varbanov V., Hauptmanns U., Wollenberg G., Steinmetz T., Zander R............ 1504

Severe Weather Risk Assessment for Loviisa Power Plant Jiinkiilii K., Rantalainen L, Vaurio J. ............................................................... 1510

External Events Analysis for Present and Future Nuclear Power Plants -A Regulatory View Sandberg J., Virolainen R. ................................................................................ 1516

Progress in Risk Management Methods I

The Prioritization of Risk Reducing Measures in View of Uncertain CostiBenefits Bj¢rkvoll T., Langseth H. .................................................................................. 1522

On the use of expected values in safety management Abrahamsen E.B., Aven T., Vinnem J.E., Wieneke H.S. .................................... 1528

A Risk Determining Model for Hazardous Material Operations: Part II Cournoyer M.E. ................................................................................................. 1534

CARMA: Food Safety and Expert Judgement van der Fels-Klerx H.J., Havelaar A.H., Nauta M.J., Goossens LH.J., Cooke R.M................................................... ...................................................... 1541

Systems and Maintenance II

Supporting operational decisions using competing risk models to analyse failure data Bedford T...................................................... ..................................................... 1547

On the Application of PSA Component Reliability and Maintenance Data as a Long Term Safety Indicator Klugel J.-U. ....................................................................................................... 1553

Aging Effects on Time-Dependent Nuclear Plant Unavailability with Changing Surveillance Interval Okazaki T., Aldemir T. ...................................................................................... 1559

The RAMS Analyses in the Face of Ageing. The Bayes Approach Clarotti CA., Billy F., Lannoy A. ...................................................................... 1566

Organisational Learning in Nuclear Safety

Assessing Challenges to Nuclear Power Plant Management in Five European Countries: Methods, Results and Lessons Learned Kettunen J., Jones B., Reiman T..................................................... ................... 1572

Assessing Employee Attitudes towards Behavioural Approaches to Safety Management within UK Reactor Plants Jones B., Cox S., Rycraft H. .............................................................................. 1578

Socio-Technical Organization and Cognition: A Socio-Organizational Approach to Risk Based Assessment and Design Blackman H., Gertman D. ................................................................................. 1585

Organisational learning; a path to safety and efficiency Wahlstrom B...................................................................................................... 1591

Software Reliability Modelling

Customer Oriented Dependability Analysis for Relational Database Management Systems Tsopelas P., Violentis J., Platis A..................................................... ................. 1597

Designing more Reliable Web Sites with Performability Modeling Violentis J., Banos E., Kaklanis N., Vouros G., Platis A................................... 1603

A Framework for Analyzing Trust in IT Systems Gorski J. .............. ......... ....... ..................... ....... ........... ........... ....... ..... ..... ........... 1609

Adapting Business Process Modeling Techniques for Risk Analysis of Computer Based Information Systems Diergardt M. ..................................................................................................... 1615

System Design Optimisation

An Approach to Optimizing the Structural Reliability and the Reliability of the Control and Safety System of Wind Turbines Kozine I., Tarp-Johansen N.J., Rademakers L ................................................. 1621

The Load Matrix - a method for optimising powertrain durability and reliability test programmes Hick H., Denkmayr K. ....................................................................................... 1627

Ant colonies in optimization of system reliability Nourelfath M., Nahas N. ................................................................................... 1636

Optimal Scheduling of Reliability Development Activities Quigley J., Walls L, Johnson W..................................................... ................... 1642

Materials and Waste - Strategy and Decision-Making

Safety Goals for Nuclear Materials and Radioactive Wastes - the UK Regulatory Approach Vaughan G.J................................................... ................................................... 1648

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Program on Risk-Informing the Materials and Waste Arenas: Pilot Studies Damon D., Lui e, Gruss K., Smith J., Leslie B., Wong A. ................................ 1654

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Program on Risk-Informing the Materials and Waste Arenas: A Decision-Making Framework Mubayi V., Bari R.A., Grove E., Azarm M.A., Damon D.R., Lui eH., Shane R.M. ........................................................................................................ 1660

Establishment of Quantitative Consequence Analyses Criteria for the Los Alamos National Laboratory Nuclear Materials Technology Division Robinson M.A., Lynch eM., Gordon D.J. ........................................................ 1668

Civil Engineering - Reliability Methods and Stochastic Analysis

Application of a Sequential Life Testing with a Truncation Mechanism for an Underlying Three-Parameter Weibull Model De Souza D.I. Jr. ............................................................................................... 1674

Reliability Analysis of Temperature Models According to Eurocodes Markova J. ........................................................................................................ 1681

Stochastic Analysis and Simulation for Seawall Engineering on Qiantang Estuary Wang W., Jin W., Han Z, Yu T. ........................................................................ 1687

Adapting a Dynamic Reliability Model to Measurements using Bayesian Inference Becker G., Camarinopoulos L, Kabranis D. .................................................... 1694

Risk Assessment for Satellites and Other Space Applications

Application ofPRA for Risk-Informed Decision-Making on a Space Station Payload Paulos T., Flippen A.A. ..................................................................................... 1702

Safety Analysis of Microgravity Science Glove-Box Using the ESA Risk Management Approach Kim l.S., Khatib-Rahbar M., Oliefka L, Preyssl C. .......................................... 1708

Atmosphere Re-entry Management of BeppoSAX satellite Miozzo A., Ambrosetti S., Salvatori L, Mussoni G., Sforza c., Spaziante v..... 1714

TIMED Orbital Science Mission PRA Integration Feldman K., Guarro S. ...................................................................................... 1720

Human Reliability Analysis - Insights from Practice

Human Factors Analysis: Central Needs for Practical Applications Spitzer C. . ..... ............... ......... ......... ......... ....... ... .... ..... ........................... ... .......... 1727

Responsibilities and Challenges of Human Reliability Assessment in the Regulatory Framework Strater O. ................... ........ .......... ..... ....... ....... .......... ....... ......................... ......... 1734

Some Insights from HRA Related to Low Power and Shutdown Scenarios Holy J. ............................................................................................................... 1741

Developments in HRA Technology from Nuclear to Aerospace Spurgin A.J., Frank M. V. .................................................................................. 1748

Level 2 PSA Modelling

A Plant-Specific Severe Accident Simulator for KKG and First Applications Torri A., Kliigel J. U., Pokorny V., Luttringhaus U. .......................................... 1754

Development of A Linked Levelland Level 2 Plant Model Using the Large Event Tree Approach Xing M., Rao S., Johnson D., Kliigel J.-U. ........................................................ 1760

Development of a Level 2 PSA Model for the Paks NPP Bareith A., Karsa Z, Lajtha G., Siklossy P., Techy Z, Elter J. ......................... 1766

Experimental Assessment of GOTHIC Code for Local Hydrogen Combustion Analysis LeeJ.-Y., LeeJ.-j., Park G.-C., ChungS.-H . .................................................... 1772

Progress in Risk Management Methods II

Prospects and challenges of risk management Rouhiainen V., Riiikkonen T., Schabel J. ........................................................... 1778

A Decision Support System for Pollution Control in Cement Plants Madsen H., Thyregod P., Popentiu Vlifdicescu F., Albeanu G., $erbtinescu L 1784

Development of a Scenario Analysis Method for the Analysis of Complex Changes 0ien K., Bodsberg L, Johnsen S.O., Steiro T., MonsenJ. ................................ 1790

Knowledge Based Risk and Quality Management for Feed and Food Dirmeier C. ..................... .................................................................................. 1796

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis - Physical Phenomena

Determination of Input Uncertainties of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses Skorek T.... ..... ..... ............ ...... ..................................... .......... ..... .......... ........ ....... 1803

The DSD and Conventional StatelParameter Estimation Wang P., Aldemir T. .......................................................................................... 1809

Thermal-Hydraulic Uncertainty Analysis in the Context of Pressurized Thermal Shock Risk Scenarios Chang Y.R., Almenas K., Mosleh A., Bessette D. .............................................. 1815

An Application of DSD with Recursive Partitioning Scheme to Constant Temperature Power Sensors Burghelea A., Aldemir T.................................................................................... 1821

Safety and the Management of Change

Leading Safe Change Steiro T., Bj~rnsen L, D~rstad P., Tveiten C.K. ............................................... 1828

HSE Petroleum: Change - Organisation - Technology Hovden i., Alteren 8., Rosness R. ..................................................................... 1834

Organizational Changes in Transport: A Pitfall to Safety? Tveiten C.K., iersin E., Steiro T., Vatn i..................................................... ...... 1840

How did the Norwegian Railway System Adapt the Existing Experience Based Safety Rules for Traffic Operation to a New Organizational Context and a Risk Based Approach?

Blakstad H.C. .................................................................................................... 1846

Software and Hardware Diversity and Failure Dependence

A Comprehensive Approach for Automated Safety and Reliability Analysis of Systems Liggesmeyer P., Maeckel 0..................................................... .......................... 1852

Fault Detection in Real-Time Software Systems using Neuro-Fuzzy Tools for Signal Validation and Diagnosis Thunem H.P.-i., Thunem A.P.-i. ....................................................................... 1858

Classification. Analysis and Detection of Interface Inconsistencies in Safety-Relevant Component-based Systems Saglietti F., iung M. .......................................................................................... 1864

A method for deriving feared scenarios in hybrid systems Medjoudj M., Khalfaoui S., Demmou H., Valette R. ......................................... 1870

Test and Test Planning

The Study of Reliability Qualification Testing for the Large-scale Equipments Zhang B.-Y., Zhang Z-y. ................................................................................... 1876

Consideration of a Field Stress Distribution for the Reliability Test of Transmission Components Maisch M., Bertsche B. ..................................................................................... 1882

Fatigue Determination in Case of Spontaneous Failure Mode Vogt M............................................................................................... ................ 1888

An Advanced Reliability Test Procedure for Gear-Wheels Considering Results Known from Different Gear Transmission Ratios Hitziger T., Bertsche B., Krolo A. ..................................................................... 1894

Development of PRA Standards I

Updating the Regulatory PSA Guidance in Germany Based on Current Applications Berg H.P., Frohmel T., Gortz R. ....................................................................... 1900

Differences Between Full Power Operation and Low Power / Shutdown Operation, and the Implications on the LPSD Standard Bley D., Burchill 8., Drouin M., Julius J., Kiper K., Stillwell B. ...................... 1906

Insights for Quantitative Risk Assessment of Combined Cycle Power Plants Ballocco G., Carpignano A., Ponte E. .............................................................. 1912

Risk Guidelines for the Nuclear Materials and Waste Arenas Bari R.A., Mubayi V., Grove E., Azarm M.A., Chow E., Rubin A. .................... 1918

Structural Safety Issues

Loss-of-Life Modelling in Risk Acceptance Criteria Lentz A., Rackwitz R. ......................................................................................... 1924

Relating Lifetime Utility Objectives and Structural Safety Maes M.A. ......................................................................................................... 1930

A Multicriteria Approach to Risk Analysis Part I: Framework van Gelder P., Duckstein L., Parent E. ............................................................. 1936

A Multicriteria Approach to Risk Analysis Part II: Application van Gelder P., Duckstein L., Parent E. ............................................................. 1943

Advanced Space Systems and Safety Engineering Challenges

Application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) During Conceptual Design for the NASA Orbital Space Plane (OSP) Rogers J.H., Safie F.M., Stott J.E., Lo Y. .......................................................... 1950

Launch Vehicle Accident Assessment Framework for Future NASA Nuclear Missions Yau M., Motamed M., Cleary 8., Shemanski T. ................................................ 1956

Safety Engineering on Alenia Spazio Contribution to Space Station Program Ferrante M., Canepa G., Pesce C. .................................................................... 1962

Difference of Concept between Space PRA and Nuclear PRA Kojima S., Kohda T. .......................................................................................... 1969

Fire Risk Methods

Improved Methodology for the Updated Fire PSA of KKG NPP Becker G., Kliigel J.-U. ..................................................................................... 1976

Development of Fire PSA Methodology and its Application in a Study for Novovoronezh-5 NPP Lyubarskiy A., Rozin V., Kouzmina I., Kazarians M. ........................................ 1982

Fire PSA including fire spreading - Extensive Modelling of all Dependencies of PSA - Components Schmaltz R., Rattke J. ....................................................................................... 1988

Underground Fire Risk Assessment Study for a modem Metro System: integrated methodology and application to a case study Raffetti A., D'Addio G.F., Faragona B. ............................................................ 1994

Rail and Road Transport - Reliability and Risk Modelling I

Verification of Load Collectives for the Testing of Automotive Diesel Common Rail Systems Ulrich D., Bertsche B. ....................................................................................... 2001

Definition and Analysis of a New Risk Priority Number Concept Braband J. . .............. ..... ............... .................. ....... ... .... ..... ....... ... ..... ..... ..... ..... ... 2006

Reliability Model of Combined Transportation System Nowakowski T. .................................................................................................. 2012

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis - Methodology I

Grouping model input factors to perform a sensitivity analysis computationally efficient Cariboni J., Campolongo F..................................................... .......................... 2018

Analytical Framework for Estimation of Uncertainties in Fault Tree Shimodaira T., Kimura D., Suyama K., Sato Y. ....... ..... ....... ... ... ..... ... ..... ..... ..... 2024

On the Relationship Between the Sensitivity Measures Proposed by Morris and the Variance Based Measures Campolongo F., Cariboni J. ...... .......... .... ............................... ...... ..... ........ ..... ... 2030

Computing the Top Event Uncertainty with Binary Decision Diagrams Simic Z, Banov R., Vukovic I., Mikulicic V. ...................................................... 2036

Modelling Organisational Factors

Means-end Models of Safety Related Organizational Processes Petersen J. ......................................................................................................... 2042

Incorporation of human and organizational factors into qualitative and quantitative risk analyses Kosmowski K. T. ...... ....... ...... ..... ......... ......... ......... ....... .......... ........ ... ........ ... ....... 2048

US Nuclear Industry Approaches to Managing Human and Organizational Factors Ziebell D. ..... ............ ....... ...... ....... ..... ........... ....... ............ ................ ..... ... ........... 2054

Human and Organizational Contributions to Safety Defences in Offshore Oil Production Skjerve A.B., Rosness R., Aase K., Hauge S., Hovden J. ................................... 2060

Maintenance Management

Bayesian Network-based Proactive Maintenance Muller A., Suhner M.-C., lung B. ...................................................................... 2066

A Model for the Use of Knowledge in Developing Effective Maintenance Policies Smart A., Ansell J. ..... ............ ... ....... ....... ......... ................ ... ..... ... ... ..... ... ... ..... .... 2072

System Performance Based Inspection Doron A. ............................................................................................................ 2078

The Value of Proper Modeling in Performance and Resources Assessment DubiA. .............................................................................................................. 2084

Software and Human Factors

Safety Management Aspects on Automatic Train Operation Control Systems Using Predictive Fuzzy Logic Rachel F., Cugnasca P. ..................................................................................... 2090

The Technique and the Experience of Expertise of Software for NPP Instrumentation and Control Systems Kharchenko V., Yastrebenetsky M., Sklyar V. ................................................... 2096

Configuration Management of Railway Vehicles' Software for a Railway Operator Heland i., Albold A. .......................................................................................... 2102

Report on the Comparison of Software Safety Concepts Schulze T., Gutgesell i. ..................................................................................... 2107

Reliability Applications

Monte Carlo Method Application for Reliability and Availability Analysis of Highly Meshed Network Systems Carpignano A., Salvador E., Gargiulo M., Piccini M. ...................................... 2113

Structural Reliability Analysis of a Car Front Cradle with Multiple Design Criteria Donders S., Van de Peer i., Schueremans L. .................................................... 2119

Fast reliability prediction using Weibull distributions Ion R.A., Sander P.C. ........................................................................................ 2125

On Reliability Improvement of the Port Grain Transport Systems Kwiatuszewska - Sarnecka B..................................................... ........................ 2131

Development of PRA Standards II

Development of Guidance for "PSA Quality for Applications" Kouzmina I., Niehaus F., Ranguelova V. .......................................................... 2137

Addressing the Issue of PRA Quality Drouin M., Parry G..................................................... ...................................... 2143

The SKI PSA Review Handbook Hallman A., Nyman R., Knochenhauer M. ........................................................ 2149

EDF Issues New Guide to Good Methodological Practice for PSA Work Gallois M., Vidal S. ........................................................................................... 2155

Structural Reliability

Optimization Technique for Finding Probabilistic Critical Excitation Ghodrat Amiri G., Ashtari P. ............................................................................ 2161

Methodological Approaches on Structural Durability Assessment Kudzys A., Kvedaras A.K., Kliukas R. ............................................................... 2167

Methods for fitting a 3-parameter Weibull distribution on fracture toughness data Marques M., Perot N., Devictor N., Saliba B.................................................... 2174

Determination of Load and Resistance Factors by Third Moment Approximation Zhao y'-G., Ang A.H.-S., Jin G. ........................................................................ 2180

Risk Assessment for Space Transportation and Launch Vehicles

Launch Vehicle Development Risk Projection Methodology Guarro S., Tomei E. .......................................................................................... 2187

A Probabilistic Analysis of the "Infancy Problem" of Space Launch Vehicles Pate-Cornell M.E., Guikema S.D. ..................................................................... 2193

Physics Based Risk Assessment of Launch Vehicles Maggio G., Hark F., Sen D. .............................................................................. 2199

Health Care - PRA Approaches

PRA, Patient Safety, and Insights for Quality Improvement in Healthcare Wreathall J. ....................................................................................................... 2206

The Use of Socio-Technical Probabilistic Risk Assessment at AHRQ and NASA Battles J.B., Kanki B.G................................................... ................................... 2212

Socio-Technical Probabilistic Risk Assessment: Its Application to Patient Safety Hale M., Slonim A., Allen B., Marx D., Kirkland J. .......................................... 2218

A Framework for Probabilistic Assessment of New Medical Technologies Pietzsch J.B., Pate-Cornell M.E., Krummel T.M. ............................................. 2224

Fire Impact and Consequences

Development of Fire Risk Evaluation System - System Improvement -Fujii M., Miyagi K., lwama K., Koshiba T., Sato Y. ................•......................... 2230

A Risk Analysis Approach for the Evaluation of Fire Consequences - An Application to High Speed Craft Raffetti A., Noce E., Carfagna E., Pedrali M. ................................................... 2237

PML Probabilistic Assessment for Fire & Explosion Risk in Oil Industry lwama K., Sato Y., Suyama K., Sumida H. ........................................................ 2244

How to maintain a reasonable Quality Level in Fire Protection Systems Schlosser I., Boke J., Luttenberg R. ................................................................... 2250

Rail and Road Transport - Reliability and Risk Modelling II

Reliability Prediction in Railway Signalling Renpenning F. ........... ......... ...... ................................. ....................................... 2256

Axiomatic Safety-Critical Assessment Process (AS CAP) Risk Assessment of a Transit Signaling System Cutright E., Ou Y., Cao Y.-Y., Zhang H., Monfalcone M., Ghaly N., Giras T... 2262

Development of a Road Transportation Risks data base for Italy: methodology, models and results Orlandelli CM., Vestrucci P. ............................................................................ 2269

Development and Use of the UK Railway Network's Safety Risk Model Dennis C., Somaiya K. ...................................................................................... 2275

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis - Methodology II

A Study on Uncertainty Analysis of Safety Systems of Advanced Heavy Water Reactor using Fuzzy Set Theory Durga Rao K., Gopika V., Prasad M.H., Kushwaha H.S. ................................. 2283

Modelling and uncertainty in system analysis for safety assessment Kosmowski K. T. ..................... ............................................ ....... ......................... 2289

An Approach for Assessing of Plant-specific Data Variation Lee C.-J., Sung K.-Y. ......................................................................................... 2295

External Costs and Accidents Risks

Quantification and tentative internalisation of energy external costs in the European Union Rossetti di Valdalbero D. .................................................................................. 2301

External Costs from Severe Accidents in Non-nuclear Fuel Chains: Valuation of relevant end-points Hunt A., Ortiz R., Markandya A. ....................................................................... 2308

Accident Risks in the Energy Sector: Comparison of Damage Indicators and External Costs Hirschberg S., Burgherr P., Hunt A. ................................................................. 2314

Severe Accidents in Fossil Energy Chains: Individual Chain Results and Aggregated Evaluations Burgherr P., Hirschberg S. ............................................................................... 2320

Risk-Informed Inspection Prioritisation and Planning

Risk-Informed Testing Program for Emergency Diesel Generators Hamiilainen A., Jankala K., Vaurio J. ............................................................... 2326

Database System for Risk Evaluation in Material Degradation Takahashi M., Usami J., Tsujimoto Y., Kitamura M. ........................................ 2332

Study for the Utilization ofPSA for Revised Inspection System in Japan Nishio M., Uchida T., Yamashita M., Kondo K., Koriyama T., Fukuda M. ...... 2338

Assessment of Safety-Critical Software Systems II

Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis of Security in Safety and Reliability Critical Systems Winther R. ............... ..... ... ...... ... ............. ..... ..... ......... .......... ... ..... ..... ..... ..... ... ..... 2345

Safety Assessment for Safety-Critical Systems: a Review and Commentary of the Available Techniques Carpignano A., Morisio M., Rambaudi E. ........................................................ 2352

Licensing of Software for Safety-critical Applications on the Basis of Operating Experience Ehrenberger w. ................................................................................................. 2358

Criteria for Software Tools Evaluation in the Development of Safety-Critical Real-Time Systems Kornecki A.J., Zalewski J. .................. ....... ..... ................................................... 2364

Risk and Reliability - Theory and Frameworks

A New General Accident Theory Duffey R..................................................... ........................................................ 2371

On Developing a Risk Analysis Framework for Post-Industrial Age Technologies Kastenberg W., Hauser-Kastenberg G., Norris D. ............................................ 2378

An Integrated Framework for Identification, Classification, and Assessment of Aviation Systems Hazards Mosleh A., Dias A., Eghbali G., Fazen K. ......................................................... 2384

An Entropy-Based Exploration Strategy in Dynamic PRA Hu Y., Groen F., Mosleh A. ............................................................................... 2391

Risk Aspects of Electrical Engineering Standards

Assessment of Safety-related Systems using Markov Model Long w., Oshima M., Zhang T. ........ ...................... ........................................... 2398

Probability of Failure on Demand in lEe 61508 Shimodaira T., Takeda I., Suyama K., Sato Y. .................................................. 2404

Safety Analysis according to IEC 61508 - Putting it into Practice Braband J., Griebel S..................................................... ................................... 2410

Optimising Strategies for Inspection of Structures

Recent Advances in Risk Based Inspection Planning for Structures Straub D., Faber M.H. ...................................................................................... 2416

Evaluation of Risk Importance and Inspection Methods for Piping Segments Kohriyama T., Uchida T., Yamashita M., Nishio M., Kondo K.. Fukuda M .• Hirano M..................................................... ...................................................... 2423

Reliability Control of Coolant Measure System in RBMK-1500 Reactor Using Preventive Maintenance Augutis J., Matuzas V., Uspuras E. ................................................................... 2429

Optimal Inspection and Replacement Decisions for Multiple Failure Modes Kallen M.-J., van Noortwijk J.M. ...................................................................... 2435

Health Care - Human and Organisational Issues

Human Error Risk Management Methodology for Safety Audit of a Large Hospital Structure Cacciabue P.C., Vella G. .................................................................................. 2441

Modeling Techniques and Patient Safety Wilwerding J.M., White A., Apostolakis G., Barach P., Fillipo B.H., Graham LM. ..................................................................................................... 2448

Accident and incident analysis in hospitals: how to transfer the RECUPERARE method from nuclear industry de Marcellis-Warin N., Baumont G., Matahri N. .............................................. 2455

Human Reliability Analysis in Cobalt-Therapy Process using an Adapted ATHEANA Prospective Approach Nunez Mc Leod J., Baron J., Rivera S. .......................................... ..... ............ ... 2462

Fire PSA Applications

First Experiences Regarding Probabilistic Fire Safety Assessment for Full Power and Low Power/Shutdown Operational States Berg H.P., Rowekamp M., Turschmann M., von Linden J. ............................... 2468

PRA Modelling Under Elevated Ambient Temperature He W.G .............................................................................................................. 2474

Cable Failure Modes and Effects Risk Analysis Perspectives Nowlen S.P. ....................................................................................................... 2481

A PRA Approach to Evaluate Post-Fire Safe Shutdown Capacity for Risk­Informed Fire Analysis in Taiwan Wu C.-H., Lin T.-J., Kao T.-M. ......................................................................... 2487

Dangerous Goods Transport Risk

Quantitative Transport Risk Analysis on a Regional Scale: An Application ofTRAT-GIS to East Sicily Maschio G., Milazzo M.F., Antonioni G., Spadoni G. ...................................... 2493

Advanced Spatial Modelling for Risk Analysis of Transportation Dangerous Goods Gheorghe A. V., Birchmeier i., Kroger w., Vamanu D. V., Vamanu B. ............. 2499

The use of HazOp and Fault Tree techniques for the assessment of non­accident induced release frequencies in the transport of hazardous substances Cozzani V., Spadoni G., Giusti S., Zanelli S. ..................................................... 2505

Parameter Uncertainty and Modelling Techniques

A Hierarchical Uncertainty Model, Combination Rules and Uncertainty Propagation Kozine I. ............................................................................................................ 2511

Reliability Analysis of Automotive Systems: Quantification of Data Uncertainty Woltereck M.M., Vollmar R. ............................................................................. 2517

Parameter Uncertainty in Levell PSA Model of Krsko NPP with Focus on CCF Vrbanic I., Cizelj R.i. ........................................................................................ 2524

Stratified Sampling for Estimating Reliability Quantiles for a Thermohydraulic Transient Ardillon E. ................. ........... ..... ........................................................................ 2531

Sustainability Assessment

A Multi-Criteria Approach for the Classification of EU Countries with Respect to their Progress Towards Sustainable Development Diakoulaki D., Mavrotas G. .............................................................................. 2537

Social Assessment of Regional Energy Scenarios Renn 0..................................................... .......................................................... 2544

An Integrated Decision-Support Tool for Sustainable Energy Supply Hirschberg S., Dones R., Burgherr P., Heck T., Schenler W ........................... 2552

Assessing the Sustainability of Heavy Metal Emissions in Europe Bachmann T.M., Droste-Franke 8., Friedrich R. ............................................. 2558

Maintenance Modelling

Markov Model Analysis for Efficient Plant Maintenance Muta H., Tonwhisa Y., Sato Y. .......................................................................... 2564

Modelling the Degrading Failure of a Rail Section Under Periodic Inspection Podofillini L, Zio E., Vatn]. ............................................................................ 2570

Method to optimize the test and maintenance activity of stand by safety systems Caira M., Gambellini A. .................................................................................... 2576

Maintenance Improvement of an Aircraft Fleet by a Software Method Based on Reliability Criteria Righini R., Marcodini G., Treves D., La Vopa P. ............................................. 2584

Radioactive Waste - Managing Risk and Uncertainty

Long-term Radioactive Waste Management: Challenges and Approaches to Regulatory Decision Making FliJ.eler T. ......................... .......... ......... ..... ....... ........... ..... ....... ..... ....... ..... ..... ...... 2591

Management of Uncertainty and Risk in Safety Cases for Radioactive Waste Disposal: Summary of an OECDINEA Workshop held in Stockholm February 2004 Dverstorp B., Wilmot R.D., Voinis S. ................................................................ 2597

The Role of Probabilistic Safety Analysis in Radioactive Waste Management - A UK Regulatory View Vaughan G.]. ..................................................................................................... 2603

What Role for Performance Assessment? Reiter L ......................... ................... ..... .................... ....................................... 2609

Application Framework for Risk Assessment

Application of ALARP Principle in Design Trbojevic v. ....................................................................................................... 2616

Quantifying the safety degradation that an external initiator induces upon a complex facility Argirov J.P. ....................................................................................................... 2622

Hurricane Loss Estimation Model Pinelli J.-P., Murphree J., Subramanian c., Gurley K., Cope A., Hamid S., Gulati S. ............................................................................................................ 2628

Risk Monitors

Risk Monitoring Systems Kafka P. .............................. .............................................................................. 2635

Experiences from Implementing a Risk Monitor at OKG Backstrom 0., Augustsson T. .... ........................................................................ 2641

Integration of LERF Calculation Capability into the Second Generation of Taiwan's NPP Risk Monitor Kao T.-M., Lin J.-D., Chao C.-C. ...................................................................... 2647

Status and Actual Risk Monitoring in a NPP Reactor Protection System Varga I., Bartha T., Szabo G., Kiss B. ............................................................... 2654

QRA . Roads and Tunnels

The Dutch Model for the Quantitative Risk Analysis of Road Tunnels Brussaard LA., Kruiskamp M.M., Oude Essink M.P. ....................................... 2660

A method for the estimation of casualties caused by accidents in tunnels Jonkman S.N. ..................................................................................................... 2666

Tunnel Safety: two Approaches to consider Risks in Freight Railway Tunnels Rosmuller N., Ale B. ..... ....... ........ ......... ........ ......... ... ..................... .......... ..... ..... 2673

Three-Dimensional Individual and Group Risk Approach of Buildings above Roads and Railways during Exploitation Suddle S.1. ......................................................................................................... 2680

Risk Assessment in the Chemical Industry I

Development of Management of Change (MOC) Software for Small and Medium Sized Chemical Plants Kim Jaehyun, Lee J., Kim K., Kim Y., Baek J. ................................................... 2687

Risk Matrix as Tool for Risk Assessment in the Chemical Process Industries Ruge B..................................................... .......................................................... 2693

An Integrated Safety for Business Analyses of Process Plants Reinders J.E.A., Kamperveen J.P. ..................................................................... 2699

A Practical Method for Reviewing Safety Studies of Process Plants Papazoglou I.A., Giakoumatos I., Aneziris O.N. ............................................... 2706

Health Care - Human Error Taxonomies and Data Collection

Two Kinds of Error? Senders J. W. ........................ ........... ... .......... ....................... ................ ... ........ .... 2711

Analysing Medical Incident Reports by Use of a Human Error Taxonomy ltoh K., Andersen H.B. ...................................................................................... 2714

Hospital Staff Attitudes to Models of Reporting Adverse Events: Implications for Legislation Andersen H.B., Hermann N., Madsen M.D., 0stergaard D., Schi~ler T. ......... 2720

The USNRC/EPRI Fire Risk Requantification Project

The Ongoing Joint U.S. NRC/EPRI Fire Risk Requantification Study Hyslop J.S., Kassawara R.P., Nowlen S.P., Najafi B. ....................................... 2726

Methods Advances in the EPRIlUSNRC Fire Risk Requantification Study -Fire Modeling Nowlen S.P., Najafi B., Kazarians M., Joglar-Billoch F. .................................. 2732

Fire Risk Requantification Study - Fire Ignition Frequencies Kazarians M., Joglar F., Nowlen S.P., Najafi B. .............................................. 2738

Methods Advances in EPRJJNRC Risk Re-quantification Project: Modeling of Post-Fire Safe Shutdown in Fire PRA Najafi B., Kolaczkowski A., Funk D., Wyant F., Forrester J., Hannaman w.G., Anoba R. ............................................................................... 2744

Rail and Road Transport - Risk Assessment and Regulation

Safety Functions in Railways - a Structural Analysis of Safety Rules Harms-Ringdahl L, Kecklund L ...................................................................... 2751

A View and Movement of the Safety and Reliability in Railways of Japan Ogino T., Akita K., Hirao Y. .............................................................................. 2758

A Comparison of Data-Driven and Model-Based Approaches to Quantifying Railway Risk Bedford T., Quigley l., French S. ...................................................................... 2765

Scenario Analysis, a Safety Engineering Design Tool Kuiken M.J., Stoop l.A., Ijsselstijn S. ................................................................ 2772

Uncertainty Modelling

Uncertainties and Transformation Principles in PSA Wagenknecht M., Gocht U. ............................................................................... 2778

Non-Parametric Continuous Bayesian Belief Nets with Expert Judgement Kurowicka D., Cooke R. .................................................................................... 2784

Probabilistic Uncertainty Analysis Applied to Fuel Rod Design Wensauer A., Distler I., Heins L ...................................................................... 2791

Insurance and Energy Liabilities

Insurance Engineering Karydas D. ...... ................. ...... ... ........................................................................ 2797

Damage Compensation and Risk-Informed Regulation: Status and Trends in the EU Kirchsteiger C. .......... ..... ........... ..... ............ .......... ............................................. 2803

Credibility in risk assessment Busby l.S., Alcock R.E., Hughes E.l. ................................................................ 2809

Liability and Controlling Technological Risks. Ethical and Decision Theoretical Foundations Zandvoort H. ..................................................................................................... 2815

Maintenance Optimisation I

Importance of assessing effectiveness of repair in obtaining an optimal maintenance strategy for repairable assets AI-Doori M., Ansell J., Archibald T., Thomas L .............................................. 2821

An MILP Model for Medium-term Production and Maintenance Management Pixopoulou N., Papageorgiou LG. ................................................................... 2827

Effect of false alarms on the optimisation of the maintenance decisions Barros A., Berenguer C., Grall A. ..................................................................... 2833

A Joint Spare-Provisioning and Preventive Maintenance Strategy for Availability Maximization under Limited Resources Diallo C., Ai"t-Kadi D., Chelbi A. ...................................................................... 2840

Radioactive Waste Management· Assessment Methodology

The Use of Trivial Reductions of Dimensionality in the Propagation of Uncertainties: A Radioactive Contaminant Transport Model Example Bolado Lavin R., Mira McWilliams J. ............................................................... 2847

Role of Component Sensitivity Analysis in the Risk Assessment of a Large and Complex System Mohanty S., Sagar B., Janetzke R., Wittmeyer G., Patrick W. .......................... 2854

The Interpretation of Risk and Sensitivity Under the Peak-of-the-Mean Concept Codell R., Esh D., Mohanty S. ........................................................................... 2860

Application of Bayesian Network Considering the Special Dependency to Stochastic Events Lee C.-J., Lee K.-J.................................................. ........................................... 2866

Fault Tree Analysis Methods

A Method for Finding Prime Implicants in Incoherent Fault Trees by Use of Commonly Available Tools for Minimal Cut Set Analysis in Coherent Fault Trees Puhr-Westerheide P. ......................................................................................... 2872

Systematic Approach for Capturing Inter-phase Failure Combinations in an Integrated, Multiphase Linked Fault Tree Model of the Space Shuttle Bigler M., Stewart M. ........................................................................................ 2881

Accident Sequence Analysis of Fault Tree with Event Sequence Dependency Kohda T., Cui W., Inoue K. ................ ............................................................... 2888

NPPs - PSA Developments and Applications I

International PSA Developments. The OECDINEA Viewpoint Lanore J.-M., Kaufer B., Versteeg M.F., De Gelder P., Shepherd C. ............... 2894

Applications of Probabilistic Safety Assessment in the Nuclear Power Plant Philipps burg (KKP) Singh J.B. .......................................................................................................... 2900

The ASME PRA Standard and the HCPRA Update He W.G., Burns E.T.................................................... ....................................... 2908

Evolution of NPP Design from a PSA standpoint Kang S.-K., Lim H., Jung G.J., Park K.S. ......................................................... 2914

External Threats to Structures

Statistical Resampling in Assessing External Threats to Structures Vaidogas E.R. .................................................................................................... 2920

Stochastic Prediction of Seismic Ground Motions Using Macro-Spatial Correlation Model Takada T., Shimomura T. .................................................................................. 2926

Optimal Intensity Measures for the Characterization of the Ground Motion in Performance-Based Seismic Design Ciampoli M., Giovenale P. .. ....... .................... ......... .......................................... 2932

Probabilistic Performance Criteria for Tall Buildings Subjected to Wind Diniz S., Iancovici M., Riley M., Simiu E. ............... ...................................... .... 2938

Risk Assessment in the Chemical Industry II

A Quantitative Risk Analysis Model of Scenarios Characterised by Explosion Fragments and Missiles Maschio G., Cambria D., Lisi R., Milazzo M.F. ............................................... 2944

Damage Assessment of Industrial Accidents by Frequency-Magnitude Curve Hanayasu S., Sekine K. ..................................................................................... 2950

Integrated Dynamic Decision Analysis (IDDA): an Advanced Tool for Risk Analysis Demichela M., Piccinini N. ............................................................................... 2956

Global assessment of the technological risks relative to the transport and the storage of chemical products Defert R., Ruffin E. ............................................................................................ 2962

Health Care - New Technologies for Risk Management

How Cognitive Artifact Support of Acute Care Distributed Cognition Affects Patient Safety Nemeth c.P., Cook R.I., O'Connor M., Klock P.A............................................ 2967

An Object-Oriented Risk Management tool for Communicable Disease Control in the UK Gelletlie R., Schweiger M., Barnes H., Hamilton R., Kara-Zaitri C. ................ 2973

Hospitals and Health Care Facilities: Guidelines for the implementation of an effective Safety and Health Management System Romano A., Pinetti G., Fiorentini L, Scarpellini S.M....................................... 2979

Risk Analysis for Mobile Telephony in a Hospital Nordland O . ................................................................................. '" ........ '" ....... 2985

PSA Special Models and Approaches

Modelling of Failing Reactivity Control in PSA for Barseback 2 Ingemarson I., Olsson L, Backstrom O. ........................................................... 2991

An Approach to Estimate SBO Risks in Multi-unit Nuclear Power Plants with a Shared Alternate AC Power Source Jung W.S., Yang J.-E., Ha J. ............................................................................. 2997

Specifying the frequency of an initiator threatening the safety of a complex system where the available data is not directly relevant Argirov J. ............................ ..................................... .......... ................... ............ 3003

An Analysis of Source Term Reduction by Implementing Accident Management Measures to BWR-5 Plant Sumida S., Funayama K., Kajimoto M., Tanaka N. .......................................... 3009

Port Safety Assessment

An Assessment of Fire Services at a Port Rao S.B., Salter J., Grenier A. T. ....................................................................... 3016

Risk Based Decision Model for Maximal Ship Entry to the Ports Gucma L ........................................................................................................... 3022

Reliability Improvement of Transportation Systems in their Operation Processes Blokus A. ................. ....... ...... ............... ............................... ....................... ..... ... 3028

Availability Improvement of Port Transportation Structures in Their Operation Processes Kolowrocki K. .................... ... ..... ...... ........................ ................................... ...... 3034

Manufacturing - Process Control

Reliability-Adaptive Control of Tool Wear in Transfer Lines Dietl C., RakowskY U.K. .................................................................................... 3040

Statistical Process Control Procedures in Relation with Reliability Engineering Ramalhoto M.F., Gob R., Pievatolo A., Evandt 0............................................. 3048

Reliability Evaluation for an Oxygen Generator in an Air-conditioner by Accelerated Life Testing Jo Y., Park Sangjun, Lee S., Park Sangdeuk ..................................................... 3054

Dictionary of Elementary Effects (DELEE): Application to the Functional Requirements of Industrial Systems

Rohmer S., Amoussou G.A. ............................................................................... 3060

Regional Risk Assessment (Land-Use Planning)

Case Studies in Italy of Potential additional Safety Measures for the Purpose of Land-Use Planning Gagliardi R. V., Ludovisi G. ............ ................................ ... .... ....... ..... ..... ... ..... ... 3066

Towards an evolution of risk assessment and land-use planning (LUP) approaches in France Salvi 0., Rodrigues N., Descourriere S., Gaston D. ... ... ..... ....... ... ..... ........ ....... 3072

Flood Forecast Model and Probabilistic Analysis Simaityte Volskiene J., Uspuras E., Augutis J. .................................................. 3079

Development of European Guidance and a Common RisklHazard Assessment Database for Land-Use Planning in the Context of Major Accident Hazards

Christou M., Struckl M., Duffield S., Salvi 0., Bernuchon E., Post J., Beerens H . ............................................ '" ..... .......... ........ ....... .......... ... ............... 3086

Maintenance Optimisation II

Optimizing Pooled Power Plant Spare Parts Hall S., Doron A ............................................................... '" ..... ..... ........ ........ .... 3092

Monte Carlo Optimization of the Replacement Strategy of Components subject to Technological Obsolescence Michel 0., Labeau P.-E., Mercier S. ................................................................. 3098

Universal Moment Generating Function and Stochastic Petri Nets to Redundancy Optimization for Multi-State Systems under Repair Policies Nourelfath M., Dutuit y..................................................... ................................ 3104

The MicMaq Project: Minimum cost - Maximum quality for the Maintenance Optimization of the Belgian Power System Fouathia 0., MaunJ.-c., Labeau P.-E., Wiot D............................................... 3110

Radioactive Waste Management - National Applications I

Morsleben Nuclear Waste Repository. Probabilistic Safety Assessment of the Long-Term Safety Resele G., Niemeyer M., Jaquet 0., Wollrath J. ................................................ 3116

Sensitivity Analysis of an Engineered Barrier System Model for the Potential Repository System in the United States Pensado 0., Sagar B. ........................................................................................ 3123

Probabilistic Risk Analysis Methodology for Preclosure Operations at a Geologic Nuclear Waste Repository Benke R., Dasgupta B........................................................................................ 3130

Risk Assessment and Management - Innovations

AMSMA (Aviation Maintenance Safety Management Assistant) An Alternative Top-Down Approach to Support Risk Management and Decision-Making

Bieder C., Paries f., Koning Y. ......................................................................... 3136

A Machine Learning Algorithm to Estimate Minimal Cut and Path Sets from a Monte Carlo Simulation Rocco C.M., MuseUi M...................................................................................... 3142

Representation of Risk Scenarios via Euler Diagrams Lambert f.H., Sarda P. ...................................................................................... 3148

NPPs - PSA Developments and Applications II

The Use of PSA for Development and Evaluation of NPP Dukovany Symptom-oriented EOPs Hustak S., Patrik M. .......................................................................................... 3153

PSA for the Replacement Research Reactor Baron f., Nunez Me Leod f., Rivera S., Bastin S............................................... 3158

The Time Consideration in Risk Informed Tools Sedlak f. ............................................................................................................ 3164

Evaluation of Shutdown Risk Using Ff-FREE Risk Monitoring Function Sakuramoto K., Miyata K., Tomizawa S............................................................ 3170

Safety Management I

Soft Markov Chain Relations For Modeling Safety Management Cooper f.A. ....................................................................................................... 3177

Safety management system for major accidents prevention: role of the knowledge management tools and advanced integrated information systems

Fiorentini L, Rossini V., Parodi E.................................................................... 3183

Choosing between organisational & technical safety: a practical approach for industry Gort J., Reinders J., Zwanikken S.LJ. .............................................................. 3189

Accident Experience and Modelling in the Chemical Industry

Recent accident frequency on fixed installations in France and in the EU Dechy N., Descourriere S., Bouissou C. ........................................................... 3199

Control of Major Accident Hazards and Performance Indicators: the case of Transmission Pipelines Papadakis G.A., Spiekhout J., Wettig J. ............................................................ 3205

The Estimation of Vulnerability in Domino Accidental Events Antonioni G., Cozzani V., Gubinelli G., Spadoni G., Zanelli S. ........................ 3212

OtT site Risk Assessment

Prediction of Evacuation Time in Radiological Emergency using Fuzzy System Han M.H., Jeong H.J., Kim E.H., Suh K.S., Hwang W. T. ................................. 3218

Comparison of Average Transport and Dispersion Among a Gaussian Model, a Two-Dimensional Model and a Three-Dimensional Model Mitchell J.A., Molenkamp c., Bixler N.E., Morrow C. W., Ramsdell J. V. Jr..... 3224

Neutral gas dispersion modeling revised Kootstra F., Pons Julia A., van het Veld F. ....................................................... 3231

Analysis of Radiological Consequences and its Characteristics in a typical BWR with a MARK-II Containment Funayama K., Sumida S., Kajimoto M. ............................................................. 3244

Ship Safety Assessment

Generic Ship, Specific Ship? Towards Risk-based Approaches to Maritime Regulation Chantelauve G. ............... ...... ......... ... ..... ........... ......... ............ ............. ... ..... ....... 3250

Commercial Accidents - an assessment of four leading tanker companies Soma T...................................................... ......................................................... 3256

Comparison of Modelling Methodologies for the Formal Safety Assessment in Shipping Transportation Konstantinidou M., Mennis E., Nikitakos N., Platis A. ..................................... 3263

Evaluation of Occurrence Frequencies of Marine Accidents by Event Tree Analysis Matsuoka T., Mitomo N., Kaneko F. ................................................................. 3269

Manufacturing. Life Cycle and Production

Assistance to modelling a distributed production system by using the languages and automata theory: application to production efficiency assessment Niel E., Chafik S., Signa ret J.P., Velasco S., Velichkova B. .............................. 3275

Improving Safety and Dependability by Enhancing the Availability of Product Specific Information Reunanen M., Scholliers J., Siiiimiinen A., Viitaniemi J., Viilisalo T. ............... 3281

FMEA as Design Monitor-. Regulation- and Management Tool Parallel to Product Design Cycle for an Optimised Quality Assurance Pickard K., Muller P., Bertsche B. .................................................................... 3287

Exposure to Hazardous Substances during Electronic Waste Recycling Ihrig D.F., Hanke M., Ihrig c., Tischer M. ....................................................... 3293

Health and Environmental Impacts. Assessment and Decision

Public perceptions of energy efficiency and recycling: how these can inform the communications and design processes Joyce S., Harvey J., Norman P. ......................................................................... 3299

A GIS based Approach to Environmental Vulnerability Bubbico R., Carta R., Di Cave S., Luccone LG., Mazzarotta B., Silvetti B. ..... 3305

Quantification of Human Health Risk Reduction Following the Introduction of Bt Cotton Zhou Y., Kastenberg W. ..................................................................................... 3311

Probabilistic Cost Optimisation of Soil Improvement Strategies de Vries G.B., van Gelder P.H.A.J.M., Vrijling J.K. ......................................... 3317

Risk-Based Inspection and Maintenance Applications

Assessment on Scheduling Coal Power Station Maintenance Sanchez-Martin P., LOpez-de-Haro S., Fernandez-Caro J., de la Hoz J.E. ...... 3324

Concept of Risk-based Monitoring and its Application for High­temperature Components in Power Plants Jovanovic A.S., Roos E., Balos D., Bareift J.M. ................................................ 3330

Risk Based Inspection Planning for Ship Structures Subjected to Corrosion Deterioration Dianqing L, Shengkun Z, Wenyong T. ............................................................. 3336

ATLAST Deployment & Push Pack Spares Optimization Module Gurvitz N., Borodetsky S., Van Eck P. .............................................................. 3343

Radioactive Waste Management - National Applications II

Deterministic and Probabilistic Analysis Supporting the Safety Case for a Proposed Deep Geological Repository in Opalinus Clay in Northern Switzerland Schneider J. W., Johnson L, Zuidema P., Mayer G. .......................................... 3349

Methodology for Risk Assessment of an SNF Repository in Sweden Hedin A. ............................................................................................................ 3355

Long-term Safety of Final Repositories: Experience concerning the Role of Uncertainty and Risk in Assessments and Regulations Baltes B., Rohlig K.-J. ....................................................................................... 3361

PSAlQRA Software - Tools

Improvement of FT -FREE using the BDD method Tomizawa S., Miyata K. .................................................................................... 3367

Development of an Efficient BDD Algorithm to Solve Large Fault Trees Jung W.S., Han S.H., Ha J. ............................................................................... 3373

NOT-logic in RiskSpectrum@ PSA Professional Sorman J. .......................................................................................................... 3379

Managing your PSA Model and FMEA Olsson A. ........................................................................................................... 3384

Event and Precursor Analysis - Nuclear Reactors and Industrial Installations

Probabilistic Analysis of Events at Swiss Nuclear Power Plants Beutler R., Schoen G., Kim I.S., Khatib-Rahbar M. .......................................... 3390

The Management of Operational Events from CANDU Nuclear Power Plants Bedreaga L, Florescu G., Apostol M., Nitoi M. ............................................... 3396

Two Aluminium Powder Explosions, that Occurred in Superficial Finishing Plants Cavallero D., Debernardi M.L, Marmo L, Piccinini N. .................................. 3402

Explosion of Nylon Fibres Occurred in a Textile Plant Marmo L. ........................................................................................................... 3408

Safety Management II

Managing Safety Rules in European Railways Hale A., Heijer T., Koornneef F. ....................................................................... 3414

Identification and Management of Safety Critical Situations When Different Cultures Interfaces across Borders in European Railway Herrera I., Vatn J., Johnsen S.O., Rosness R. ................................................... 3421

Virtual Reality as Tool for Supporting Safety Management Decisions Golzio L, Colombo S. ....................................................................................... 3427

How Do the Management System's Deficiencies Affect On Safety A Case Study of Accomplishment of FMEA in a Paper Mill Adl J., Pourparand A.M. ................................................................................... 3434

Application of Risk Models and Methods in the Chemical Industry I

Development of Operator Decision Support System using HAZOP result Suzuki K., Ishida M., Nojiri I............................................................................. 3441

Retrieval and reuse of design rationale for supporting safer plant activities Shimada Y., Fuchino T. ..................................................................................... 3447

The Nuclear Physics Gran Sasso National Laboratory in the Gran Sasso Highway Tunnel: the Safety Organisation and the Qualitative-Quantitative methods for Risk Evaluation Tartaglia R., Tobia M., Giampaoli A. ............................................................... 3453

Risk Mitigation on Ammonia and Methanol Primary Steam Reformers using Retrofitted Safety Instrumented Systems: A Comparative Cost-benefit, Risk-informed Study

Karydas D., Mahnken G..................................................... ............................... 3461

Marine Regulations and Classification

Alternative Design: From Prescriptive to Performance Based Maritime Safety Chantelauve G. .......... ........... ... ....... ..... ..... ....... ....... ....... ... ..... ........ ... ..... ............ 3467

Evaluation of Classification Rules Related to Machinery for an Oil Tanker Cross R., Ballesio J. .......................................................................................... 3473

Feasibility of QRA Legislation Regime for Passenger Ships Soma H., Haugen S. .......................................................................................... 3479

Environmental Safety of a Seagoing Ship Power Plant Brandowski A., Liberacki R. .............................................................................. 3485

Manufacturing - Product Cycle and Control

Design of a Reliability Information System by a Semantic Network Rzepka B., Wacker M., Bertsche B. ................................................................... 3491

Analysis and Inclusion of Synergies of Common Quality Management Methods for Optimised Quality Assurance Muller P., Pickard K., Bertsche B. .................................................................... 3497

Product Quality Expectations and Failure Rate Prediction - The Parts Count Method and Causal Analysis BehrA. .............................................................................................................. 3503

Bayesian Methodology for Reliability Assessment of Products under Development: Application to a Medical Diagnostic System Droguett E.L, Groen F.J., Mosleh A. ............................................................... 3509

Facilitating the Communication of Risk Issues

Public perceptions of risk in relation to large scale environmental projects: a Multi-attribute Decision Making method Harvey J., Norman P., Joyce S..................................................... ..................... 3516

Attempt of dialogue forum series for on-demand information disclosure about nuclear facilities Yagi E., Takahashi M., Kitamura M.................................................................. 3522

How Region and Knowledge Affect Public Acceptance of Nuclear Power? Kimura H., Furuta K., Suzuki A. ....................................................................... 3528

Augmented Electronic Discussion Through Intelligent Supporting Functions Furuta K., Kawaguchi A., Maeharal M., Nakata K. ......................................... 3534

Radioactive Waste Management - Reliability Aspects

Assessment of Operational-Phase Safety of Deep Geological Repositories for Radioactive Waste McKinley I. G., Kaku K., Neall F.B., Kawamura H., Asano H. ......................... 3540

Reliability Testing of Assumptions about Hydrological Permeability of Drainage Paths in Dangerous Waste Storage Site Ferjencik M., Ferjencik L. ................................................................................. 3546

Alternative Repository Design Options for HLW Disposal in Japan Umeki H., McKinley J.G., Masuda S., Kawamura H......................................... 3552

Safety Assessment of Large Diameter Boreholes at LIL W StorageiDisposal Korneva S.A., Prozorov L.B., Guskov A. V. ....................................................... 3558

PSAlQRA Software - Specific Developments

Development of An Integrated Software for Fire and Flooding PSA Seok H., Kim D.K., Kang S.K. ........................................................................... 3564

Integrated PSA Information System INTEPSA Vitazkova J., Cazzoli E., Vitazek K.................................................................... 3571

TREEZZY2. a Fuzzy Logic Computer Code for Fault Tree and Event Tree Analyses Bellini S., Casamirra M., Castiglia F., Giardina M. ......................................... 3577

Defining the Group Importance Measures (GIM) with Applications in Space Shuttle PRA Hsu F. ................................................................................................................ 3583

Event and Precursor Analysis in Various Industries

A method for developing and structuring risk activity indicators for major accidents Vinnem J.E., Veire G., Knudsen B.H., Aven T................................................... 3591

Using Bayesian Networks to Model Accident Causation in the UK Railway Industry Marsh W., Bearfield G. ..................................................................................... 3597

A Barrier Model for Road Traffic Applied to Accident Analysis Alteren B., Hokstad P., Moe D., Sakshaug K. ................................................... 3603

Collection and Utilisation of Accident Data within the Norwegian Fishing Fleet Sandtorv H., Okstad E., Aasjord H. .................................................................. 3609

Virtual Reality for Supporting Safety Assessment and Management

Virtual Reality as Tool for Supporting the Human Failure Probabilities Estimation Colombo S., Biardi G., Cacciabue P. C. ............................................................ 3616

Identifying Technical Limitations in Applying Virtual Reality to Human Factor Methodologies Vezzadini L ....................................................................................................... 3623

Color and Contrast Adaption Issues in VR Interfaces for Security Training Marini D., Gadia D., Rizzi A., Gatta C. ............................................................ 3629

Virtual Reality for Safety Analysis Sturing S., Trasi A. ............................................................................................ 3635

Application of Risk Models and Methods in the Chemical Industry II

Shortcut models for the estimation of the consequences of a gas cloud explosion in industrial environment Baldacci S., Andreis F., Lombardi A., Marotta F., Mossa Verre M., Fineschi F. ........................................................................................................ 3641

A New Algorithm for Data Reconciliation, Gross Error and Leak Identification to Prevent Explosions in Gas Piping Network Baldacci S., Hvala M. ....................................................................................... 3647

Estimation of Damage to Equipment Caused by Blast Waves by Means of Fuzzy Sets Salzano E., Cozzani V. ...................................................................................... 3653

Probabilistic Procedure to Evaluate Integrity of Degraded Pipes Roos E., Herter K.-H., Julisch P., Schuler X., Ringel M. .................................. 3659

PSA Methodology Aspects - Nuclear Power Applications

Method for Setting up the Truncation Limit of Probabilistic Safety Assessment Cepin M. ............. ................... ........... .... .................. ....... ....... ....... ..... ..... ..... ....... 3666

A Simulation Model for the Frequency and Duration of LOOP Himanen R..................................................... .................................................... 3672

Setpoint Design Impact on Availability Ravishankar T.J., Bates LD., Romagnino J.M. ................................................ 3678

Methodology for Assessment of Uncertain Input Data for a Level-3 PRA Analysis of a Nuclear Reactor Accident Using MACCS2 Bixler N.E., Morrow C. W., Phillips J.M., Fatenejad M., Mitchell J. ................ 3685

Application of Risk Models and Methods in the Chemical Industry III

Characterising the Impact of Toxic Emissions on Human Targets in the Proximity of an Industrial Site Luccone LG., Mazzarotta B., Silvetti B. ........................................................... 3691

Early Detection of Gas Dispersion Accident through a Neural Network Based Expert System Celso A., D'Urso D., Trapani N., Spampinato S. .............................................. 3697

A Model-Based Soft Sensor to Avoid Explosions in Direct Heaters Due to Skin Point Threshold Overtaking Baldacci S., Hvala M. ....................................................................................... 3703

Analysis of accidental scenarios and flammable liquid classes, according to the review of Metodo Speditivo Tucci M., Giagnani L, Cappelli I., Gavilli L, Massa Verre M. ....................... 3709

Author Index .................................................................................................. 3715

Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management

PSAM 7 - ESREL '04

June 14 - 18,2004, Berlin, Germany

Volume 2

Edited by Cornelia Spitzer, illrich Schmocker and Vinh N. Dang

, Springer

Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management

PSAM 7 - ESREL '04

June 14 - 18,2004, Berlin, Germany

Volume 2

Edited by Cornelia Spitzer, illrich Schmocker and Vinh N. Dang

, Springer

Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management

PSAM 7 - ESREL '04

June 14 - 18, 2004, Berlin, Germany

Volume 3

Edited by Cornelia Spitzer, Ulrich Schmocker and Vinh N. Dang

Springer

Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management

PSAM 7 - ESREL '04

June 14 -18,2004, Berlin, Germany

Volume 4

Edited by Cornelia Spitzer, Ulrich Schmocker and Vinh N. Dang

, Springer

Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management

PSAM 7 - ESREL '04

June 14 - 18, 2004, Berlin, Germany

VolumeS

Edited by Cornelia Spitzer, Ulrich Schmocker and Vinh N. Dang

, Springer

Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management

PSAM 7 - ESREL '04

June 14- 18, 2004, Berlin, Germany

Volume6

Edited by Cornelia Spitzer, Ulrich Schmocker and Vinh N. Dang

' Springer