View
215
Download
1
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Problem-Oriented Approaches to Crime Places:
Current & Future Directions
John E. Eck, Ph.D.University of Cincinnati
School of Criminal Justice
If we don't change direction soon, we'll end up where we're going. Professor Irwin Corey
Conference onInnovative Approaches to Crime Control
9 July 2010Rydges South Bank Hotel, Brisbane
Goldstein – The major police dysfunction is the
Means over Ends Syndromewhile overlooking
what is to be achieved.
A few MEANS
Organization
Crackdowns
Adding police
Procedures
Command meetings
Crime mapping
Intelligence analysis
Special units
Community meetings
Some ENDS
Less crime
Reduced disorder
Improved traffic flow
Fewer vehicle accidents
Increased fairness
Less domestic violence
Orderly protests
Less drug violence
Worrying over what to do
Era of Professional Policing
5051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 80
2
4
6
8
10
12
Age of Community Policing
Strategy proliferation
Information invasionPeriod of police anxiety
Era of good news research
The Development & Context of Problem-Oriented Policing
1950 - 2008
US Homicides/100 K
Problem-Oriented Policing & Environmental Criminology
Goldstein publishes POP articleCohen & Felson publish RAT
Newport News POP project begins
POP Guides begun
POP Center incorporated
ABA Studies Discretion Crisis
Period of bad news research
Goldstein with Chicago PD
1st POP Conference
Rising Place Consciousness
SCANNING ANALYSIS
RESPONSEASSESSMENT
POP is Evidence Intensive
What is the evidence of a problem? What is the
evidence of its causes?
What is the evidence for a
solution?
What is the evidence it worked?
POP Facilitated the Rise of Place-Based Thinking
Offend
er Target
Place
Handl
er Guardian
Manager
crime
Places are important because:• They can facilitate crime• Crime is concentrated at a few• Police know more about them• They yield practical solutions
Crime is Concentrated at a Few PlacesA UNIVERSAL LAW OF CRIME*
Highest PLACES RANKED BY NUMBERS OF CRIME Lowest (none)
Amount of Crim
e
A few places have a great deal of crime
Most places have little or NO crimes
* And maybe everything else.
Example: Crime Concentration in Cincinnati Apartment Buildings 2006
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1 705 1409 2113 2817 3521 4225 4929 5633 6337 7041 7745 8449 9153 9857 10561
Nu
mb
er o
f Cri
mes
Building ID
77.05% of apartment buildings had no crimes
10,672 total apartment buildings experienced 4,615 crimes
The worst 10% of addresses have 30.88% of crimes
NON-ADDRESSES:Aggregations of
addressesMany variables &
complexNo one in charge
Neighborhoods are NOT Places Street segments
might be places
Addresses, corners, parcels etc
Hot spots are not places,but usually contain hot places.
8
ADDRESSES:Small & simpleFewer variablesSomeone in
charge
What is a Place?
What Place Managers Do*
• Organize Space – control of physical features
• Regulate Conduct – encouragement and discouragement of behaviors
• Control Access – who gets in
• Acquire Resources – how it stays in business
Possible causes of the problem& things that need changing
Sources of resistance & leverage
*From Tamara Madensen
Why Should We Focus on Places & Managers?
Place managers have the ability to make the work of criminals hard or easy.
Most make the criminal’s work hard.
A few make it easy – they facilitate crime.
Changing their behavior reduces crime.
Manager Offender Target
POP and Shifting Responsibility
• Whose problem is it? police or enablers?
• Should the public subsidize enablers?
• Should enablers take responsibility for the problem, and become preventers?
• What is the best way to convert enablers to preventers?
Crime is Pollution*
=
* Acknowledgements to Graham Farrell and Graeme Newman.
My daughter, who graduated from college this year, helped me with much of what follows.
Internalizing Crime Costs
• Place users, neighbors & government bear the costs of crime.
• When crime is produced by businesses– Prices of goods and services under priced,
or– Owners increase profits from exporting
crime costs
• Get place managers to assume the costs of the crime they produce – they will then produce less.
Principles
1. Those who enable crime should bear some of the costs of crime.
2. Those who do not enable crime should not bear the costs.
3. Compliance should be rewarded, to the extent it is successful.
4. Non-compliance should not be rewarded.
Means v Ends Strategies
Number of employees Barriers to accessSecurity featuresLightingRecording retentionTraining proficiencyPhysical layoutOther__________
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 610
100
200
300
400
500
600
Before Mean
After Mean
Target Level
Crimes
Time
MEANS ENDS
Set standards that must be met and
enforce compliance with standards.
Set performance target for crimes that must be met and enforce compliance (means for compliance are mostly
irrelevant).
Some Heretical Remarks Against Evidence
Government funded Evidence based* place practices are for the most part:
1. Oversold – we have far less evidence than proponents suggest.2. Impractical -- there are too many interventions and situations to
study. 3. Slow -- any single study takes years to produce results.4. Unsustainable -- the funding does not exist and is unlikely to
come along. 5. Uncertain – they are usually based on a few studies, that are too
general. 6. Unsound – they based on the misguided notion that we prove
what works rather than reject what does not. 7. Unsuitable – they do not work for the circumstances where
government interventions are most needed: high harm / low probability events.
8. Inefficient – most place interventions are small scale and locally adapted, so evidence based practices will not pay off.
9. Unfair -- they subsidize private entities who could pay for the research, if they found it helpful.
QED: Private entities should pay for evidence, or accept the risk of bad practices, rather than publicly fund academics to slowly produce uncertain evidence.
* As advocated by the Campbell Collaborative, for example.
Alternatives for Crime Place Regulation
Means/Standards Ends/PerformanceCommand Subsidize Tax/Charge Cap & Trade
HOW IT WORKS
Require devices or procedures or face penalty
Get assistance for use of devices or procedure
Stay below a set level or receive charge
Crimes allowed if sufficient permits. Permits are tradable
BEST IF THERE ARE
Evidence based standards
Evidence based standards
Clear, few exceptions, & accurate measures
Accurate measures. Many places in the market. Big differences in prevention costs.
EXAMPLES 2 Clerk rule, Airport security
Landlord training Cincinnati caps on apt. calls. False alarm caps.
none
ADVANTAGES Applicable to high harm / low probability events
Reduced political resistance
Encourages innovation. Low evidence requirement.
Rewards efficient crime reduction . Lowers & internalizes information costs.
DIFFICULTIES Stifles innovation, highly inefficient
Stifles innovation, highly inefficient
Treats all crime places the same regardless of prevention costs.
Has not been tried for crime prevention
The Evolution of Policing Crime Places
Police Repeatedly Address Problems
Police Regulate Standards of Prevention
Police Regulate Outcome Performance
Police Handle Calls
Police Crackdown on Hotspots
STANDARDPOLICING
HOT SPOTS POLICING
PROBLEM-ORIENTEDPOLICING
I – POP ?
Leading edge
Modal style
Evidence of tactical effectiveness unimportant
Evidence of tactical effectiveness very important
Evidence of tactical effectiveness less important
Trailing edge
Principles of Place Prevention
1. Focus on addresses – the bigger the area the less information and control.
2. Do the worst first – its more effective, more efficient, and reduces side effects.
3. Hold owners accountable – their actions (or inactions) facilitate crime.
4. Measure performance – provides flexibility and assures improvements.
What is the Future of Policing, if this Works?
• Less crime at places• Less concentration of crime at places• Lower utility of place & geographic
analysis• Greater randomness of crime
geographically– Uncertain value of victim and offender
focus– Greater emphasis on reactive policing
strategies
• Goal of policing is to eliminate patterns &
• Makes policing more traditional