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1-0 Alp&Associates/ea. RAM Process Safety and Loss Management Session 6 Hazard and Risk Assessment, Frequency and Consequence Analysis Techniques 51 st Chemical Engineering Conference October, 2001 Halifax, Nova Scotia Chair: Ertugrul Alp, Ph.D., P.Eng. ALP & ASSOCIATES Incorporated 87 Topham Crescent, Richmond Hill, Ontario, L4C 9E9, Canada Tel: 905-508-2595, Fax: 905-508-2679 E-mail:[email protected], Web Site: www.Alp-Risk.ca

Process Safety and Loss Management · Alp&Associates/ea. RAM 1-5 Objectives ¾Provide an overview of ´risk concepts ´the risk management process ´risk assessment techniques ´measures

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Page 1: Process Safety and Loss Management · Alp&Associates/ea. RAM 1-5 Objectives ¾Provide an overview of ´risk concepts ´the risk management process ´risk assessment techniques ´measures

1-0Alp&Associates/ea. RAM

Process Safety and Loss ManagementSession 6

Hazard and Risk Assessment, Frequency and Consequence Analysis Techniques

51st Chemical Engineering ConferenceOctober, 2001

Halifax, Nova Scotia

Chair: Ertugrul Alp, Ph.D., P.Eng.ALP & ASSOCIATES Incorporated87 Topham Crescent, Richmond Hill, Ontario, L4C 9E9, CanadaTel: 905-508-2595, Fax: 905-508-2679E-mail:[email protected], Web Site: www.Alp-Risk.ca

Page 2: Process Safety and Loss Management · Alp&Associates/ea. RAM 1-5 Objectives ¾Provide an overview of ´risk concepts ´the risk management process ´risk assessment techniques ´measures

1-1Alp&Associates/ea. RAM

Topics coveredTopics coveredAlp Alp –– Risk management system and risk assessment techniquesRisk management system and risk assessment techniques

Yugo IvanovichYugo Ivanovich –– Risk management system focusing on SHERisk management system focusing on SHE

Leo Jansen Leo Jansen –– NEB’s NEB’s index method of risk assessmentindex method of risk assessment

Christian Christian Etowa Etowa –– Dow’s index method of risk assessment Dow’s index method of risk assessment ––inherent safetyinherent safety

Mike Morgan Mike Morgan –– Consequence analysis/ learning loopConsequence analysis/ learning loop

Gerry Phillips Gerry Phillips –– CARAT CARAT –– Improving Stakeholder ParticipationImproving Stakeholder Participation

Mark Riley Mark Riley –– Risk control/ engineering Risk control/ engineering –– MonitoringMonitoring

Faisal Khan Faisal Khan –– SWeHI SWeHI –– Index method of risk assessment, Index method of risk assessment, combining Fire/ Explosion and Toxic/ Corrosive hazardscombining Fire/ Explosion and Toxic/ Corrosive hazards

Suggest: keep the units of measurement in B (consequence) Suggest: keep the units of measurement in B (consequence) and A (1/frequency), rather than burying them into an index and A (1/frequency), rather than burying them into an index

Brian Kelly Brian Kelly –– scare with hazardous events, overview of PSM scare with hazardous events, overview of PSM ––risk management focusing on hazardous materials and systemsrisk management focusing on hazardous materials and systems

Page 3: Process Safety and Loss Management · Alp&Associates/ea. RAM 1-5 Objectives ¾Provide an overview of ´risk concepts ´the risk management process ´risk assessment techniques ´measures

1-2Alp&Associates/ea. RAM

Classical Management Process Steps• Vision: Set Policy and Direction• Assess• Plan• Implement• Review

• Risk Avoidance• Risk Transfer• Risk Financing• Risk Control

Risk Management ProcessRisk Management Process

2. System/ Scope Definition:Define Boundaries, Understand

Needs of Stakeholders

4. Risk Control:Examine New/ Different Control Options• Facility “Safety” Management (OHS. PSM,…)• Land Use / Buffer Zones• Incident Management / Emergency Response

Yes

No

Cannot Decide

Need More Information

3b. Risk Acceptability Evaluation:

Do we need to reduce risk?

Learning Loop Continuous Improvement Loop

3a. Risk Analysis:• Hazard Identification (at-risk behaviour

and physical conditions)• Consequence Analysis• Likelihood Analysis• Risk Estimation/ Ranking

6. Learning:Broaden Scope,

Increase Detail to Reduce

Uncertainty

1. Initiation: Identify the Activity to be Managed,Identify the Stakeholders / Risk Receptors

3. Risk Assessment 7. Stakeholder Participation

• Communicate Risks With Stakeholders

• Consider Stakeholder Needs/ Risks/ Costs/ Benefits in Decisions

5a. Plan Implementation of Activity/ New Controls

5c. Review: Monitor Controlled Risks/ Audit Implementation and Performance

5b. ImplementActivity/ New Controls

Page 4: Process Safety and Loss Management · Alp&Associates/ea. RAM 1-5 Objectives ¾Provide an overview of ´risk concepts ´the risk management process ´risk assessment techniques ´measures

1-3Alp&Associates/ea. RAM

Thank you allThank you all

ParticipantsParticipants

SpeakersSpeakers

ModeratorsModerators

Our volunteerOur volunteer

Page 5: Process Safety and Loss Management · Alp&Associates/ea. RAM 1-5 Objectives ¾Provide an overview of ´risk concepts ´the risk management process ´risk assessment techniques ´measures

Risk Assessment Techniques for Process Safety and Risk Management

A Short Overview

Presented by Ertugrul Alp, Ph.D., P.Eng.

51st Chemical Engineering ConferenceOctober, 2001

Halifax, Nova Scotia

ALP & ASSOCIATES Incorporated87 Topham Crescent, Richmond Hill, Ontario, L4C 9E9, CanadaTel: 905-508-2595, Fax: 905-508-2679E-mail:[email protected], Web Site: www.Alp-Risk.ca

Page 6: Process Safety and Loss Management · Alp&Associates/ea. RAM 1-5 Objectives ¾Provide an overview of ´risk concepts ´the risk management process ´risk assessment techniques ´measures

1-5Alp&Associates/ea. RAM

ObjectivesObjectives

Provide an overview ofProvide an overview ofrisk conceptsrisk conceptsthe risk management processthe risk management processrisk assessment techniquesrisk assessment techniquesmeasures for representing different types of riskmeasures for representing different types of risk

so that you will gain an understanding of the usefulness and so that you will gain an understanding of the usefulness and limitations of different risk assessment techniques as applied tlimitations of different risk assessment techniques as applied to o process safety management.process safety management.

Our focus will be industries where different types of hazards arOur focus will be industries where different types of hazards are e inherent in their business processes, in particular those that dinherent in their business processes, in particular those that deal eal with hazardous materials.with hazardous materials.

Page 7: Process Safety and Loss Management · Alp&Associates/ea. RAM 1-5 Objectives ¾Provide an overview of ´risk concepts ´the risk management process ´risk assessment techniques ´measures

1-6Alp&Associates/ea. RAM

employee riskemployee riskpublic riskpublic riskenvironmental riskenvironmental riskproduction riskproduction riskproperty riskproperty riskshareholder riskshareholder risk

facility riskfacility risktransportation risktransportation riskproject riskproject riskmarket riskmarket riskcurrency riskcurrency riskpublic outrage public outrage riskrisk

financial riskfinancial riskintegrated riskintegrated riskenterprise riskenterprise risk

Risk “Source”

Perspective

Risk “Source”

Perspective

Risk “Receptor” Perspective

Risk “Receptor” Perspective

“Bottom line” perspective

“Bottom line” perspective $$$$

We are faced with many different types of risks in dayWe are faced with many different types of risks in day--toto--day operations:day operations:

Risk ConceptsRisk Concepts

Page 8: Process Safety and Loss Management · Alp&Associates/ea. RAM 1-5 Objectives ¾Provide an overview of ´risk concepts ´the risk management process ´risk assessment techniques ´measures

1-7Alp&Associates/ea. RAM

Risk ConceptsRisk Concepts

Situation of Interest for Risk Assessment:Situation of Interest for Risk Assessment:

Risk SourceRisk Source

Areas where the undesirable events can occur:Manufacturing facility, mine, power plant, ...Transportation facility, rail, marine, pipeline, …Areas and markets where the company operates

Risk ReceptorRisk Receptor

EmployeesPublicEnvironmentPlant Units/ EquipmentPropertyCorporationShareholdersSociety

Risk Impact

Questions we are trying to answer in Risk Management:Questions we are trying to answer in Risk Management:What are the undesirable events that can occur at the risk sourcWhat are the undesirable events that can occur at the risk source? e? What can their impacts be on the receptors? How likely are they?What can their impacts be on the receptors? How likely are they?Should we try to eliminate or reduce the risk?Should we try to eliminate or reduce the risk?Risk

Assessm

ent

Risk Contro

l

If we should, how can we?If we should, how can we?

Page 9: Process Safety and Loss Management · Alp&Associates/ea. RAM 1-5 Objectives ¾Provide an overview of ´risk concepts ´the risk management process ´risk assessment techniques ´measures

1-8Alp&Associates/ea. RAM

ManagementManagement

Process of analyzing business stakeholder needs, and taking Process of analyzing business stakeholder needs, and taking steps to meet those needs by steps to meet those needs by

Designing and implementing the necessary business Designing and implementing the necessary business processes (work flow), processes (work flow), Developing the resources to carry out these business Developing the resources to carry out these business processes, and processes, and Organizing these resources. Organizing these resources.

A major component of management is to eliminate the potential A major component of management is to eliminate the potential for disruption of work flow, or reduce this potential to acceptafor disruption of work flow, or reduce this potential to acceptable ble levelslevels

This we call risk management.This we call risk management.

Page 10: Process Safety and Loss Management · Alp&Associates/ea. RAM 1-5 Objectives ¾Provide an overview of ´risk concepts ´the risk management process ´risk assessment techniques ´measures

1-9Alp&Associates/ea. RAM

Management Process Management Process for Continual Improvementfor Continual Improvement

Stakeholder Participation

VisionAssessCurrent situation versus where you want to be, options of how to get there

PlanImplement

Review

Page 11: Process Safety and Loss Management · Alp&Associates/ea. RAM 1-5 Objectives ¾Provide an overview of ´risk concepts ´the risk management process ´risk assessment techniques ´measures

1-10Alp&Associates/ea. RAM

Process of analyzing exposure to loss and taking steps to Process of analyzing exposure to loss and taking steps to eliminate the risk or reduce it to acceptable levels.eliminate the risk or reduce it to acceptable levels.

Building safety into physical assets, as well as the way Building safety into physical assets, as well as the way people think and work.people think and work.

Risk ManagementRisk Management

Page 12: Process Safety and Loss Management · Alp&Associates/ea. RAM 1-5 Objectives ¾Provide an overview of ´risk concepts ´the risk management process ´risk assessment techniques ´measures

1-11Alp&Associates/ea. RAM

Risk Management Process Risk Management Process for Continual Improvementfor Continual Improvement

Stakeholder Participation

VisionRisk AssessmentAnd Option Evaluation

PlanImplement

Review

Page 13: Process Safety and Loss Management · Alp&Associates/ea. RAM 1-5 Objectives ¾Provide an overview of ´risk concepts ´the risk management process ´risk assessment techniques ´measures

1-12Alp&Associates/ea. RAM

Classical Management Process Steps• Vision: Set Policy and Direction• Assess• Plan• Implement• Review

• Risk Avoidance• Risk Transfer• Risk Financing• Risk Control

Risk Management ProcessRisk Management Process

2. System/ Scope Definition:Define Boundaries, Understand

Needs of Stakeholders

4. Risk Control:Examine New/ Different Control Options• Facility “Safety” Management (OHS. PSM,…)• Land Use / Buffer Zones• Incident Management / Emergency Response

Yes

No

Cannot Decide

Need More Information

3b. Risk Acceptability Evaluation:

Do we need to reduce risk?

Learning Loop Continuous Improvement Loop

3a. Risk Analysis:• Hazard Identification (at-risk behaviour

and physical conditions)• Consequence Analysis• Likelihood Analysis• Risk Estimation/ Ranking

6. Learning:Broaden Scope,

Increase Detail to Reduce

Uncertainty

1. Initiation: Identify the Activity to be Managed,Identify the Stakeholders / Risk Receptors

3. Risk Assessment 7. Stakeholder Participation

• Communicate Risks With Stakeholders

• Consider Stakeholder Needs/ Risks/ Costs/ Benefits in Decisions

5a. Plan Implementation of Activity/ New Controls

5c. Review: Monitor Controlled Risks/ Audit Implementation and Performance

5b. ImplementActivity/ New Controls

Page 14: Process Safety and Loss Management · Alp&Associates/ea. RAM 1-5 Objectives ¾Provide an overview of ´risk concepts ´the risk management process ´risk assessment techniques ´measures

1-13Alp&Associates/ea. RAM

RISK is seen by many people in terms of their own personal RISK is seen by many people in terms of their own personal experiences… experiences…

The following quotation is one which exemplifies a typical approThe following quotation is one which exemplifies a typical approach to risk.ach to risk.

On April 15, 1913, RMS Titanic sank with the loss of On April 15, 1913, RMS Titanic sank with the loss of more than 1500 livesmore than 1500 lives -- one of which was its Captainone of which was its Captain-- E.J.Smith.E.J.Smith.

"…in all my experience, I "…in all my experience, I have never been in an have never been in an accident of any sort accident of any sort worth worth sspeaking about. I peaking about. I have seen but one have seen but one vessel in distress in all vessel in distress in all my years at sea… I my years at sea… I never saw a wreck and never saw a wreck and have never been have never been wrecked, nor was I ever wrecked, nor was I ever in any predicament that in any predicament that threatened to end in threatened to end in disaster of any sort." disaster of any sort."

Captain Edward J. SmithCaptain Edward J. Smithinterviewed by the New interviewed by the New York press, 1907.York press, 1907.

The ChallengeThe Challenge

Page 15: Process Safety and Loss Management · Alp&Associates/ea. RAM 1-5 Objectives ¾Provide an overview of ´risk concepts ´the risk management process ´risk assessment techniques ´measures

1-14Alp&Associates/ea. RAM

Formally, risk due to an “undesirable event”Formally, risk due to an “undesirable event”

Risk = Likelihood of undesirable event Risk = Likelihood of undesirable event x Consequence of that eventx Consequence of that event

Undesirable eventUndesirable eventAn event which has the potential for causing adverse effects on An event which has the potential for causing adverse effects on people, property/production or the environmentpeople, property/production or the environmentAn event (or condition) that can result in An event (or condition) that can result in reputational reputational or or material financial loss or prevent the organization from material financial loss or prevent the organization from achieving its business objectivesachieving its business objectives

Risk ConceptsRisk Concepts

Page 16: Process Safety and Loss Management · Alp&Associates/ea. RAM 1-5 Objectives ¾Provide an overview of ´risk concepts ´the risk management process ´risk assessment techniques ´measures

1-15Alp&Associates/ea. RAM

Risk ConceptsRisk Concepts

Examples of undesirable eventsExamples of undesirable eventsEquipment breakdown, collapseEquipment breakdown, collapseLiquid spills, gas clouds, fires, explosionsLiquid spills, gas clouds, fires, explosionsFalls, falling objects, collisionsFalls, falling objects, collisionsEnvironmental contamination as a result of short or long term Environmental contamination as a result of short or long term releasesreleasesLoss of key personnelLoss of key personnelMarket collapseMarket collapsePrice/currency fluctuationsPrice/currency fluctuations

We can provide a natural We can provide a natural linklink between between risk assessmentrisk assessment and and reliability and maintenance programsreliability and maintenance programs, if we include in our list , if we include in our list “equipment breakdown” even though in itself such an event may “equipment breakdown” even though in itself such an event may not have occupational, public, environmental or asset damage not have occupational, public, environmental or asset damage potential. potential.

Page 17: Process Safety and Loss Management · Alp&Associates/ea. RAM 1-5 Objectives ¾Provide an overview of ´risk concepts ´the risk management process ´risk assessment techniques ´measures

1-16Alp&Associates/ea. RAM

Formal Definition of RiskFormal Definition of RiskEvent Risk = Estimated likelihood of undesirable event

X Estimated consequences of that eventEvent Risk = Estimated likelihood of undesirable event

X Estimated consequences of that event

How to Estimate RiskHow to Estimate Risk

Units of risk depend on the choice of units for expressing the Units of risk depend on the choice of units for expressing the consequencesconsequences

fatalities/year = events/year x fatalities/eventfatalities/year = events/year x fatalities/eventinjuries/year = events/year x injuries/eventinjuries/year = events/year x injuries/eventWCB cost $/year = events/year x WCB cost $/eventWCB cost $/year = events/year x WCB cost $/eventcleanclean--up $/year = events/year x cleanup $/year = events/year x clean--up $/eventup $/eventcontaminated hectares/year = events/year x contaminated hectcontaminated hectares/year = events/year x contaminated hectares/eventares/eventnumber of wildlife affected/year = events/year x number of winumber of wildlife affected/year = events/year x number of wildlife ldlife affected/eventaffected/eventproduction loss $/year = events/year x $/eventproduction loss $/year = events/year x $/eventproperty damage $/year = events/year x $/eventproperty damage $/year = events/year x $/eventmarket share loss $/year = events/year x $/event market share loss $/year = events/year x $/event

Expressing risk is $ terms provides a natural progression to risExpressing risk is $ terms provides a natural progression to risk/ k/ cost/ benefit analyses for decisioncost/ benefit analyses for decision--making purposesmaking purposes

Page 18: Process Safety and Loss Management · Alp&Associates/ea. RAM 1-5 Objectives ¾Provide an overview of ´risk concepts ´the risk management process ´risk assessment techniques ´measures

1-17Alp&Associates/ea. RAM

Requirements for Success …Requirements for Success …

TopTop--down commitment (Safety Culture)down commitment (Safety Culture)BottomBottom--up awareness (Safety Culture)up awareness (Safety Culture)Structure in the middleStructure in the middleA risk management process wellA risk management process well--understood by allunderstood by allAvailability of a full range of risk assessment and risk/cost/beAvailability of a full range of risk assessment and risk/cost/benefit nefit analysis tools of various sophisticationanalysis tools of various sophistication

to determine the level of risk exposure using appropriate risk to determine the level of risk exposure using appropriate risk measurement parametersmeasurement parametersto evaluate suitability of risk control actionsto evaluate suitability of risk control actions

Appropriate risk control strategies, and human and physical Appropriate risk control strategies, and human and physical resourcesresourcesA company standard reflecting the values of the organization andA company standard reflecting the values of the organization andthe requirements that are asked of itthe requirements that are asked of it

in Balancing the needs of Stakeholders and Achieving Superior in Balancing the needs of Stakeholders and Achieving Superior Risk Management PerformanceRisk Management Performance

Page 19: Process Safety and Loss Management · Alp&Associates/ea. RAM 1-5 Objectives ¾Provide an overview of ´risk concepts ´the risk management process ´risk assessment techniques ´measures

1-18Alp&Associates/ea. RAM

Integrated Risk Assessment Tools of Various Integrated Risk Assessment Tools of Various Sophistication to Determine the Level of Risk ExposureSophistication to Determine the Level of Risk Exposure

Hierarchy of tools:Hierarchy of tools:Qualitative / SemiQualitative / Semi--Quantitative / Quantitative toolsQuantitative / Quantitative toolsScreening Level Risk AssessmentScreening Level Risk AssessmentHAZOP, FMEA, etc.HAZOP, FMEA, etc.Job safety analysisJob safety analysisFault trees, event treesFault trees, event treesConsequence modelingConsequence modelingFinancial representation of consequencesFinancial representation of consequences

Estimation of:Estimation of:Individual riskIndividual riskSocietal riskSocietal riskFacility riskFacility riskIntegrated enterprise riskIntegrated enterprise risk

Erosion

Collision

Corrosion

OR

OR

OR

OR

OR

Broken Line

OR

FFacility Societal Risk Curve

N

$$$$$$

Page 20: Process Safety and Loss Management · Alp&Associates/ea. RAM 1-5 Objectives ¾Provide an overview of ´risk concepts ´the risk management process ´risk assessment techniques ´measures

1-19Alp&Associates/ea. RAM

Techniques for Risk AnalysisTechniques for Risk Analysis

Qualitative Techniques (Screening Level Analysis, Checklists, Qualitative Techniques (Screening Level Analysis, Checklists, What If, HAZOP,What If, HAZOP, FMEA)FMEA)

SemiSemi--Quantitative (Index/Matrix) MethodsQuantitative (Index/Matrix) Methods

Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA)Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA)

Risk analysis and evaluation can take place at different levels Risk analysis and evaluation can take place at different levels of of detail. A hierarchy of risk analysis tools are available, detail. A hierarchy of risk analysis tools are available, depending on the requirements at hand:depending on the requirements at hand:

Page 21: Process Safety and Loss Management · Alp&Associates/ea. RAM 1-5 Objectives ¾Provide an overview of ´risk concepts ´the risk management process ´risk assessment techniques ´measures

1-20Alp&Associates/ea. RAM

Similarities and DifferencesSimilarities and Differences

The physical components of the system, the operation, and the The physical components of the system, the operation, and the factors influencing failure frequency must be understood.factors influencing failure frequency must be understood.

Differences Between the Various Approaches:Differences Between the Various Approaches:Checklists, etc., provide only qualitative information about a Checklists, etc., provide only qualitative information about a system, and help to identify hazards.system, and help to identify hazards.

The index/matrix techniques provide semiThe index/matrix techniques provide semi--quantitative quantitative information. The index values are dimensionless, and do not haveinformation. The index values are dimensionless, and do not haveany meaning other than within that particular indexing system.any meaning other than within that particular indexing system.

The QRA will provide quantitative information in commonly The QRA will provide quantitative information in commonly understood units. Therefore, it is possible to make interunderstood units. Therefore, it is possible to make inter--industry industry comparisons and comparisons against benchmark acceptability comparisons and comparisons against benchmark acceptability criteria, and quantify benefits against cost of risk reduction criteria, and quantify benefits against cost of risk reduction measures.measures.

Common Feature of the Various Approaches:Common Feature of the Various Approaches:

Page 22: Process Safety and Loss Management · Alp&Associates/ea. RAM 1-5 Objectives ¾Provide an overview of ´risk concepts ´the risk management process ´risk assessment techniques ´measures

1-21Alp&Associates/ea. RAM

Progression From Simpler to More Complex Progression From Simpler to More Complex TechniquesTechniques

During the implementation stages of a risk management program, During the implementation stages of a risk management program, or for any new activity or project, we should start by carrying or for any new activity or project, we should start by carrying out a out a screening level assessment.screening level assessment.

Screening level techniques provide us with information onScreening level techniques provide us with information onWhether we can act without further study and analysisWhether we can act without further study and analysisWhat type of further analysis would be warranted (qualitative/ What type of further analysis would be warranted (qualitative/ quantitative)quantitative)

If highIf high--risk areas as identified by a screening level approach are risk areas as identified by a screening level approach are related to chemical processes, a HAZOP may be suitable as the related to chemical processes, a HAZOP may be suitable as the next level of detailed study for those areas, to understand how next level of detailed study for those areas, to understand how a a process can fail and to develop safeguards that would help process can fail and to develop safeguards that would help minimize the likelihood or severity of such failuresminimize the likelihood or severity of such failures

For complex equipment, a FMEA may be suitableFor complex equipment, a FMEA may be suitable

We do not have the time and resources to use the most complex We do not have the time and resources to use the most complex techniques, nor should we try to use the most complex techniques, nor should we try to use the most complex techniques for every problem at handtechniques for every problem at hand

Page 23: Process Safety and Loss Management · Alp&Associates/ea. RAM 1-5 Objectives ¾Provide an overview of ´risk concepts ´the risk management process ´risk assessment techniques ´measures

1-22Alp&Associates/ea. RAM

Typical Output from a Qualitative Risk Analysis:Typical Output from a Qualitative Risk Analysis:List of Hazardous Events and Their Risk RankingList of Hazardous Events and Their Risk Ranking

Public Env. Empl. Prod. Cap.Equ. Mark.Shr

Proc

ess

Sect

ion

Proc

ess

Sect

ion

Haza

rd Id

. No.

Haza

rdou

s Ev

ents

Cau

se(s

)

Freq

uenc

y

Con

sequ

ence

s

Ris

k

Freq

uenc

yC

onse

quen

ces

Ris

k

Freq

uenc

y

Con

sequ

ence

s

Ris

k

Freq

uenc

yC

onse

quen

ces

Ris

k

Freq

uenc

y

Con

sequ

ence

s

Ris

k

Freq

uenc

y

Con

sequ

ence

s

Ris

k

Safe-guards Actions

1

Natural Gas Supply

1

Fireball and Jet flame from transmission line

Underground pipeline rupture due to corrosion, third party damage with ignition of released gas

1 4 L 2 2 VL 2 4 M 2 3 L 2 3 L 1 1 VL

Work permit system; cathodic protection

1

Fireball and Jet flame from transmission line

Abovegroud pipeline rupture due to corrosion, third party damage, collision with ignition of gas 1 4 L 2 2 VL 3 4 H 2 3 L 2 3 L 1 2 VL

Cathodic protection

Install collision protection at main gas inlet to plant process area. Improve line labelling and develop unique colour code for piping.

1

Gas release (with traces of H2S )

Upstream failure to treat gas at source 1 2 VL 1 2 VL 1 2 VL 1 3 VL 1 1 VL 1 1 VL

Check possibility of H2S in gas supply

2

Process Steam Supply

2

Firebox explosion

Insufficient purge and failure of burner management system

2 1 VL 2 1 VL 2 4 M 2 2 VL 2 2 VL 2 1 VL

Burner management system (fireeye, shut-off interlocks)

2

Steam drum BLEVE

Material failure

1 1 VL 1 1 VL 1 3 VL 1 2 VL 1 2 VL 1 1 VL

Inspections before installations; NDT testing

Page 24: Process Safety and Loss Management · Alp&Associates/ea. RAM 1-5 Objectives ¾Provide an overview of ´risk concepts ´the risk management process ´risk assessment techniques ´measures

1-23Alp&Associates/ea. RAM

A Qualitative analysis generally:A Qualitative analysis generally:is conducted by walkis conducted by walk--though inspections and in sitthough inspections and in sit--down team down team sessions, sessions, is relatively quick, is relatively quick, does not require highdoes not require high--level technical and scientific skills, level technical and scientific skills, is based on the personal knowledge and experience of the is based on the personal knowledge and experience of the people in the team. people in the team.

As such, the assignment of undesirable events into As such, the assignment of undesirable events into frequency/consequence classes may have large uncertainties.frequency/consequence classes may have large uncertainties.

For some events of interest (e.g., high risk, high consequence, For some events of interest (e.g., high risk, high consequence, high mitigation cost), it may be desirable to understand their high mitigation cost), it may be desirable to understand their frequencies and/or consequences with a higher accuracy than frequencies and/or consequences with a higher accuracy than would be possible with a qualitative analysis based on personal would be possible with a qualitative analysis based on personal knowledge.knowledge.

Progression from Qualitative to Quantitative AnalysisProgression from Qualitative to Quantitative Analysis

Page 25: Process Safety and Loss Management · Alp&Associates/ea. RAM 1-5 Objectives ¾Provide an overview of ´risk concepts ´the risk management process ´risk assessment techniques ´measures

1-24Alp&Associates/ea. RAM

Progression from Qualitative to Quantitative AnalysisProgression from Qualitative to Quantitative Analysis

For events where higher accuracy is desirable, wellFor events where higher accuracy is desirable, well--established established quantitative techniques are available for improving the accuracyquantitative techniques are available for improving the accuracyof the analysis.of the analysis.

For such events (especially those with offFor such events (especially those with off--site consequences):site consequences):estimate their frequency using established techniques (e.g., estimate their frequency using established techniques (e.g., fault trees, event trees).fault trees, event trees).estimate hazard levels as a function of distance from event estimate hazard levels as a function of distance from event location using mathematical models (e.g., dispersion models location using mathematical models (e.g., dispersion models for toxic gases or for toxic gases or vapoursvapours).).

Page 26: Process Safety and Loss Management · Alp&Associates/ea. RAM 1-5 Objectives ¾Provide an overview of ´risk concepts ´the risk management process ´risk assessment techniques ´measures

1-25Alp&Associates/ea. RAM

Quantitative AnalysisQuantitative Analysis

This information is used to confirm or correct the earlier This information is used to confirm or correct the earlier qualitative assignments and ranking, and to feed into emergency qualitative assignments and ranking, and to feed into emergency response plans.response plans.

Once event risks are quantified, this information will also lendOnce event risks are quantified, this information will also lenditself to:itself to:

making risk/ cost/ benefit analyses, and to making risk/ cost/ benefit analyses, and to estimation of total facility risk for:estimation of total facility risk for:

comparison against acceptability guidelines, and/or for comparison against acceptability guidelines, and/or for understanding total financial risk exposure of projects or understanding total financial risk exposure of projects or facilities. facilities.

Page 27: Process Safety and Loss Management · Alp&Associates/ea. RAM 1-5 Objectives ¾Provide an overview of ´risk concepts ´the risk management process ´risk assessment techniques ´measures

1-26Alp&Associates/ea. RAM

Presentation of Risk Presentation of Risk Individual RiskIndividual Risk

Individual Risk Profile:Individual Risk Profile: Graph of Individual Risk as a function of Graph of Individual Risk as a function of Distance from the risk source Distance from the risk source I

10-3

Event LocationDistance from Event Location

I d = f x P d

d

Individual Risk Contours Individual Risk Contours (for non(for non--directional events, directional events, viewed from above; for viewed from above; for directional events, the directional events, the contours would not be contours would not be circular)circular)

Event Location

Page 28: Process Safety and Loss Management · Alp&Associates/ea. RAM 1-5 Objectives ¾Provide an overview of ´risk concepts ´the risk management process ´risk assessment techniques ´measures

1-27Alp&Associates/ea. RAM

Risk EvaluationRisk Evaluation

E.g. Risk Acceptability Criteria for LandE.g. Risk Acceptability Criteria for Land--use Planninguse Planning

Allowable Land UsesAllowable Land Uses

Risksource

No other land use

Manufacturing, warehouses, open space(parkland, golf courses,

etc.)

Commercial, offices,low-density residential

All other uses including institutions,

high-density residential, etc.

100 in a million(10-4)

10 in a million(10-5)

1 in a million(10-6)

Annual Individual RiskAnnual Individual Risk(chance of fatality per year)(chance of fatality per year)

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Loss/Risk MapLoss/Risk Mapf

Consequence N Loss/Risk Profile (Complementary Cumulative Distribution Loss/Risk Profile (Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function or FN Curve)Function or FN Curve)

F

Consequence N

Freq

uenc

y of

Eve

nts

with

Con

sequ

ence

La

rger

Tha

n or

Equ

al

To N

Intolerable Region

As Low As Practicable RegionTolerable Region

Facility Societal Risk Curve

Individual Events

Presentation of Risk Presentation of Risk Societal RiskSocietal Risk

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Example Societal Risk GuidelinesExample Societal Risk Guidelines

1 10 100 1000 1000010-8

10-7

10-6

10-5

10-4

10-3

10-2

10-1

De Manifestis

De Minimis

Gray Region

Consequence (Fatalities, $) (N)Freq

uenc

y (F

) of N

or H

ighe

r Con

sequ

ence

(eve

nts/

year

)

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Why Bother...?Why Bother...?

Not only do we want to avoid any human suffering, and Not only do we want to avoid any human suffering, and environmental degradation, but also:environmental degradation, but also:

“Safety” issues present significant risks to business “Safety” issues present significant risks to business performance.performance.

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Why Bother...?Why Bother...?

The potential impact The potential impact on the profit and loss on the profit and loss of an organization can of an organization can be significant.be significant.

UndesirableEvent

UndesirableEvent

$200,000 Extra Costs

$20,000

$180,000

Direct CostsRepair to equipmentClean-up

Indirect CostsManagement TimeCompensation ClaimsIncreased Insurance CostsBusiness InterruptionLoss of Good Will

TheCostIceberg

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Why Bother...?Why Bother...?The knock on impact for revenue generation can be sizable.The knock on impact for revenue generation can be sizable.

Revenue toCover CostsRevenue toCover Costs

Total CostTotal Cost

Profit MarginProfit Margin

How easily can your business generate this extra revenue?How easily can your business generate this extra revenue?

$4,000,000$4,000,000

$200,000$200,000

5%5%